RitualOfTheTrout

Well, I expected GFS to make a move towards the more NW models, but it’s actually coming in SE with the boundary at 00z.

Interesting. Crazy what happened there. Amazing nobody was killed. I'll be interested to hear from an engineering perspective why it failed and whether inspections really conveyed the state it was in and it was ignored / overlooked or the inspection was lacking. Anyways 18z GEFS have several good members. This setup is clear as mud right now. Would be nice to see the Euro make a move towards the GFS. As it stands GFS is a very impactful storm, but we still need faster frontal passage for more snow.

Oh wow, what do they have you doing there?

I'm interested to see what happens here. I had all but given up on anything but mainly rain with some mostly inconsequential wintry precipitation on the back end, then I saw the 6z/12z GFS. None of the models look like the GFS, its a SE outlier even among it's own ensembles. I have a feeling it's miss handling something. It seems to be the only one slowing down the ejection of the energy in the south west and having it come out in weaker pieces vs a more consolidated system. If it keeps holding through 18z / 00z tonight it will really be setting up a fairly big fail for either itself or the rest of the gang. We still don't know much about any new biases that may have been introduced since the last upgrade so who knows. It did alright with the blizzard but I think it ended up being to far east granted it was more right in the day 4 range with it and the MLK storm so.. grab a bowl of popcorn and see what happens.

GFS is the new Master of all things forecasting right? The other models are a few cycles behind and just need to catch up.. That's what I'm going with lol, anything to have the positive vibes.

I actually thought the Canadian was a bit worse early on with the front having a more North to South orientation, then towards the end looked a bit better and we ended with more snow on the end.

I'm with you, I'll gladly take a slop storm in reverse progression... rn to zr to ip to sn+ lol

GFS looks like its coming in SE again of the 6z run, need to let it play out a bit further to be sure but front looks more West to East at our latitude.

This setup plays into the NAMs bias though. It really amplifies the second wave and has less press from tpv / high pressure. Basically exact opposite of what the GFS was doing, less consolidated energy along the front and more cold push. Not saying NAM idea is wrong perse but even Euro moved a bit SE at 6z albeit not to the degree of the GFS. As always we need to get a couple runs in a row agreeing with the GFS otherwise maybe just noise.

Yes lots of sleet and ice. I'd take it, and I'd hedge if that scenario played out it's more sleet than ice.

For a real ice storm you need temps in the upper 20s or lower and light to moderate precipitation. Heavy rain and 31 degrees 95% is just runoff yet models show as accumulated ice. If there’s snow on the ground to soak it up and refereeze that can make an interesting setup but it’s my least favorite wintry precip. I’d take a heavy sleet storm any day. When was our last real ice storm? what ever happens it looks like North and West of the city is the place to be for better odds again.

Color me shocked, GFS never showed us in a good spot, Euro slowly moved same way. At least you won't have to worry about washing your car with 1+ inches of rain. The overall look the first 2 weeks of Feb has degraded some vs the broad cold trough we saw a few days ago on the models.

If I had to make a call right now I'd say this will primarily be rain except for the back edge Thursday night into Friday. Euro op and Ukmet really the only 2 that show the front getting far enough South to put us on the cold side as the second wave ride up the boundary. The Euro ENS mean looks more like the GFS. Still far enough out to see a change though just how it looks right now.

Gotta sniff the rain if you want the big totals.. at least that's how the saying goes... I think? lol. I don't have a good feeling on how far South the boundary makes it, but it seems the trend has been lower heights in the east and the winter thus far has featured faster progressive storms so that bodes well vs an amped up Midwest cutter from a few days ago. If that continues it's good to see we have wiggle room for more SE adjustments. Seems GFS is furthest NW with the boundary, CMC is in-between and Euro further SE.

Seems like some runs are showing the storm come out in pieces which increased our odds of seeing winter weather of some sort vs rain with a big consolidated low. Also keep an eye on that piece of energy that goes by to the North. I'd say we want that stronger and further south just ahead of the storm, that should lower heights in the east so we get the front through before all the pieces of energy ride up.

That's an incredible discussion... Can't even imagine what those folks are about to experience.

Maybe longer... Was 93 our last blizzard warning or did we get one in 94 or 96?

Looks like it's delayed by an hour per Levi the site owner, so if you are on the edge of your seat for that data pay site or pivotal still your best bet. I rarely stay up for the Euro anyways and if a storm is imminent always have other sources.

Hhhmmm... Quick google translation says -PNA. Am I close?

Did anyone notice Tropical Tidbits now has Euro precip maps / 500 maps (including 6z / 18z runs)? I prefer TT interface to Pivotal, maybe I've just been using it longer and I'm old lol but I was happy to see that addition.

I noticed some big swings too, it was -8 at my house, dropped to -12 at a local spot that radiates well, then saw +7 in and around the city. I crossed the Rankin bridge going towards west mifflin around 6am and it was 0 but also had some "pollution effect" pixie dust falling out of the plumes of smoke from nearby industry. So much so the bridge had a coating on it. Really interesting. I know 7 or 8 years ago NWS posted radar of a snow band that developed off the steam towers from one of the nuclear power plants, I don't think I saved it though.

Yeah, baring some huge unforeseen variable we have no chance at anything from the main storm. That's from a northern stream feature that will eventually phase in with the bigger storm that may crush NE. This is where we should put or focus, maybe a nice 1-3 / 2-4 event could be had. After this weekend it does appear the pattern starts to re-shuffle and we will lose our deep winter cold with snow on snow on snow but remains to be seen if its a disaster like December or we can get more of a gradient type pattern with warm and cold days mixed in. Warm ahead of any Midwest storm, then cold for a few days after and maybe time a wave to ride along the boundary, rinse and repeat. I haven't focused much past this weekend though so maybe things have changed.

Measured about 2, had 3 yesterday so up to 5. Score another 3 later in the week and I tie the big storm.

That had todays clipper in it too. Haven’t kept up but think CMC was on its own at 12z with the western track.

Steady light to moderate snow, with some higher returns looking to move over head soon.