RitualOfTheTrout

If by over you mean an end to any chance if sustained cold / snow cover / all snow events then I'd agree, but also state by this time of year that's probably true a majority of srasons. Definitely still reasonable to expect some overnight coatings or a well timed storm though for the next 6 weeks so not over by that metric.

I think he posted it just as an example of how much our corner if the state sucks for winter weather sometimes. There's been more times than I'd like to recall where we had similar maps but the advisories and warning were for snow.

No doubt wasting cold is a disappointment. Getting 5 inches of rain but hitting average or below average temperatures for any winter month could easily be considered frustrating. They are just saying that scenario does not constitute a torch in terms of temperatures. The winter overall to hit average snowfall is needing a more and more extreme storm to make up the difference but nothing we can do about it. Not saying this to you directly but just in general we all need to just enjoy what snow we do get. We all know our climo here and keeping expectations in check goes a long way towards finding the silver linings. We did have that solid stretch in January with sustained snow cover and several snow globe type days. This hobby really is a what have you done for me lately thing, but you need to roll with the punches, not compare your yard to somewhere that averages double and just make an effort to take a step back and enjoy when things are going well and get outside with the kids / dogs / yourself and take it all in because we all know it won't last. Bickering and arguing over it only makes the atmosphere in the thread childish and miserable.

Any chance that work place training is "How to remain respectful and professional with colleagues after the 12z model runs take away your snow."?

Yeah I agree, a torch is a long string of consecutive above average days and in general for a month to be considered a torch I'd expect the average monthly temperature to be significantly above average. The storm on the 2nd / 3rd was literally 50-100 miles from being a significant winter weather storm, had that boundary been able to make it just a little further SE who knows what we would have had, instead it was literally 33 and rain for 18 hours. That had nothing to do with our climo per se, the ridging off the east coast was just enough to halt the boundary. Re-run that same setup with a few minor changes a 100 times and I bet 75 its a high impact winter storm, maybe not all snow but big sleet / zr type storm. You can't use P-Type as a means to call a month above average on temperature.

No surprise here. 1-2 inches off the initial WAA slug on the front then a quick change to sleet / freezing rain / plain rain. The period of freezing rain will be at night so could get dicey for a bit with that. NAM did pretty well with the last event with surface temps so once we get in the 24 - 36 hour period we can monitor that if the overall evolution stays the same for potential ice, but again 30 and heavy rain won't be as dire as what the models show and we will be going up not down in temperature vs the last event. Overall this is shaping up to be a classic SWPA slop screw storm with low impact.

I read that this morning and was going to make a similar post bolding that last sentence. If the mid-level low tracks south instead of right over us then maybe we see a better outcome. Until then don't get sucked into any model showing mainly winter weather but we probably all know how it plays out.

It's been better, but its to cold usually in the medium to long range. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence when your riding the line. Doesn't mean it will always be wrong but if it's on its own giving us snow vs mix or rain on the others you have to keep your expectations in check.

I feel like there's a "That's what she said" joke in there somewhere.

Yeah, I’m actually thinking the sun probably helps with some instability which might help enhance some of the snow showers and wind.

I’m with you, it was fun to watch. With these you have to set expectations on duration and amounts, it’s all about the heavy snow and almost borderline blizzard like conditions when the embedded gusts gets the snow on the ground going and the heavy falling snow going horizontal.

Same here, heavy snow now.

Picking up now quickly, looks awesome out there.

There's some solid 30 - 35dbz returns in Allegheny now. These lines always seem to split / weaken right before they arrive in my yard, thunderstorm lines the same but holding out hope it holds together.

Looks like I’m in between two of the more moderate parallel bands, just flurries and nearly calm winds.

Snow squall warning for parts of NW PA. Let’s see if anything can hold together down this way.

Looks like NWS is thinking a squall line and NW flow snow after it passes is possible. SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday morning, the aforementioned trough and low pressure system will send an impressive shot of arctic air into the Upper Ohio Valley. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) suggest snow showers along the sfc/low-level front interface may be rather impressive. Low-level instability in a nearly-saturated boundary layer, strong low-level convergence along the front, and fast 0-2km flow will likely yield "squally" convective snow showers, capable of producing a quick light coating of snow, brief low visibility, and gusty wind. Following the quick-moving front and line of convective snow- showers, very cold (850mb air between -18 and -20C) northwest flow across the lakes should induce enough instability and moisture flux for some snow showers in the area through much of Saturday. Guidance continues to advertise very little in the way of QPF and snow accumulation, but thinking this is likely underdone given that Erie isn`t completely frozen over (Lake Erie must be nearly entirely frozen over for it not to release much heat+moisture in cold flows like this). Perhaps the biggest threat to snow accumulation will be very dry near-surface air, which may cause some snow to sublimate before reaching the surface. Regardless, have increased POPs and QPF/snow output from model guidance numbers (which were almost NIL). Thinking a dusting is possible for much of the lower elevations while the I-80 corridor and ridges may receive a couple inches.

Tell me about it, trying to siphon some water off the pool cover, still a chunk of ice about 5-6 inches thick on the one side. I was able to get under it and remove God knows how many gallons of water. Entire back yard is like quick sand..

Pretty impressive rainfall rates with that squall line for sure.

Looks Miller Bish to me. I think the weird look you are describing is the low get's forced to redevelop once it feels pressure from the PV lobes rotating around in NE Canada.

I'm with you, not buying my ticket yet for the polar express snowapoaloza tour yet. I'd also take anything with the GEFS with a grain of salt in terms of just *how* cold as those have had a cold bias in the medium / long range (GFS too) so if they are the coldest and most extreme vs EPS / GEPS I know which way I'd hedge. I'm not trying to deb on a return to cold, if we are gonna do it then late Feb / early March is still good so lets do it and do it right. I'm comfortable saying by the end of Feb we probably drop below normal again but how that translates to snow nobody knows yet and really by March 1st snow is all that matters. Your not going to get sustained cold and snow cover but a moisture laden over running event or closed bomb would sure be fun. The storm at the end of next week (24th - 25th) looks like our typical slop storm, burst of snow and quick change over to rain / mix while areas east stay snow with CAD and areas North avoid the warm tongue. Certainly plenty of time for changes but anything before that looks like primarily a rain outside of the little clipper / cold front this Saturday afternoon.

Gone but unfortunately probably won't ever be forgotten.

500mb I think is fairly accurate at day 8-10 still, at least for a general idea of where ridging / troughing will be. Temperatures and discrete storm threats no; however that's not to say if you see ridging in the east it's wrong to assume odds favor above average but I wouldn't expect modeled 2m temperatures to be a solid bet at that range. I'm not saying it's wrong either, sometimes extremes do verify but there's a good reason outlooks start to weigh climo more the further out you get.

I don't want to go to spring but if the pattern being advertised comes to fruition we won't have much chance and I'd rather not have a bunch of 35 degree rain storms. Certainly we will have cold shots still and maybe we time something right. I agree with you about March, go big or go home. Give me a 6-12+ paste bomb or don't bother. I'll take little 2-4 / 1-2 inch type stuff all day long Mid December through Mid Feb especially if it's staying cold and we are adding to a snow pack. But something like that vaporizes by noon in March. Really detracts from my enjoyment when snow is melting before you even start shoveling. Speaking of snow pack, it's still holding on in my yard but barely.

Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out.