RitualOfTheTrout

Well guess I should have held off posting this because everything has gone the wrong way since... Literally every feature, the TPV is pushing south faster, the Monday storm is not moving out as quickly and the SW for the Thursday storm is trending faster. It would be asking for a lot of stuff to be modeled wrong at this point for us to have a chance at even a few inches, but we are still 5 days out so who knows. Worst part is next storm after will probably cut and give us rain lol

This setup bares some similarities to Feb 2010 with the features, big block with a wall of confluence that will shunt the storm East once it moves so far North. One difference now is lack of the big STJ firehose of moisture. I think there is room for this to come north if it ends up being more amped and the confluence is weaker. Overall though I agree our biggest issue is suppression and this setup doesn't have the same upside potential as that storm in terms of snow totals.

Wow no kidding, just saw GFS, that would be a blizzard for areas SE into Maryland / Virginia. There's a limit to how far north it can go with the block in place but we could get a solid event out of it as it stands now.

While I agree it'll probably end a quick death based on the past history under modeling speed and degree with which the warmth overwhelmes our area it does look like GFS and CMC keep pushing the system further West which would still give us a slug of WAA precip but less warming. I guess I'm just saying don't sleep on it, outcome may be more wintry in the sleet and freezing rain department than it looks now.

Some brief but moderate snow showers moving through right now. Gee, you think we might be getting some moisture influence all the way from lake Superior? Thought this satellite shot was kinda cool, you can clearly see the stream of clouds right off the lake.

Overnight runs looking better again. Went from warm rainers to maybe needing to pull out the detour sign. It was cold last night, expected a bitter morning not really paying attention to the forecast for temps but it had already warmed up near 30 by the time I left for work this morning.

The more intriguing looks have devolved with the primary making it further North before sliding East. Lots of warm tongue looks on last two run looking at EPS individual panels. Hopefully we see some improvements or we can kick to the next threat window.

Don’t want to overlook tonight, looks like 1-2 inches. Let’s see if this can keep with the seasonal trend and max out.

Good to see PA with several chances at some bigger events next week. That map comprises probably 3-4 discrete events over the 360 hour timeframe. To bad it’s not from one storm that’s only 24 hours out.

I agree all events have met or exceeded expectations and to top it off we had a storm Christmas Eve and a white Christmas to boot. As I type light snow continues to fall outside. We will probably add a total of 5-6 more inches over this 7 day period starting Saturday that clocked in at 3.2 inches.

That would be a very destructive ice storm. I honestly don't remember the last big ice, maybe VD 2007? I recall a good bit of ice overnight before switching back to snow the next day. Before that probably early 90s. Big ice is tough to maintain in our area but if we have a big high locked in with a block funneling cool dry air in to offset latent heat release and temps stay in the 20s it could happen. Moderate rain at 31.5 in the middle of the day won't really be that bad despite models showing it all as zr.

I don't think anyone can argue the climate is warming, the oceans are warmer sea ice is less etc. It seems niave to think man's industry inducing tons of carbon into the atmosphere over decades has zero effect. Whether this is in conjunction with longer term cycles of warmer / cooler climate and we see a slight cooling as the pendulum swings the other way, who knows. The other question is would the climate have stayed stable forever without any interference, seems unlikely. Have we hit a point we're warmth is now like a fission reaction gone critical in that there's no stopping it as the cryosphere melts and oceans warm releasing tons of once stable carbon into the atmosphere? I have no idea. I do think there is a goldilocks period so to speak in that more moisture in the atmosphere and stronger storms with still cold enough air could lead to bigger storms with more snow. Also as oceans warm the baroclonic zone shifts inland along the coast making more favorable tracks for us likely while still cold enough so again bigger storms. All this while our more predictable nickel and dime snows become less frequent and we are left to boom or bust based on the previous 2. Over time the spacing between good storms / winters gets longer and longer. I don't know how fast this might happen from where we are now, maybe we are already at the tail end of goldilocks period? I know this winter the raging PAC jet (presumably fueled by warmer water) is torching Canada so air masses are maritime in origin or already moderated before they arrive. I'm not sure how this portends to future winters here but worth monitoring. If we have indeed hit the runaway warming I'd expect drastic changes to become evident over relatively short climate timescales and at that point the concern over snow is really the least of our problems.

Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures. Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

Another moderate to heavy burst moving in now. Being close to sunset should yield some better staying power now. Roads are even starting to cave and winds picking up a bit too.

I ended up with maybe 3/4 -1 inch but it quickly melted, back to bare ground aside from some slush in some grassy areas. It was coming down pretty good for awhile there.

Speaking of the fog, I woke up around 2am last night and glanced out the window noticing the milky glow of the street lights and did a double take, thought there was heavy snow coming down, nope only fog lol. I think I'm ready for some real snow after that, hopefully we can see some moderate rates even if only in periodic brief interludes over the next several days as the train of NS waves rides through the area.

No snow here today, going to have to wait until tomorrow it looks like. Not surprised, with these rain to snow in marginal temperatures my yard is usually liquid longer than anticipated. Looks like a few chances for light snow over the next week, but probably another week at least until something bigger is possible.

It is, but there is some lag from peak with respect to influence in the atmosphere. I'm not sure there is a way anyone knows for sure what that lag time is as it's going to be tied to other seasonal variables that may or may not constructively interfere. There seems to be 2 school s of thought as I read people who are way more qualified to analyze these things, one is La Nina influence takes over and the easy is warmer the other is the typical lag effects from the SSW hit in Feb and we get blocking and a colder outcome. That all being said, as we get into this upcoming weekend through rest of January all models generally agree on a more active pattern setting in conducive for snow. Edit: psuhoffman has a good post (as usual) on page 39 in the mid atlantic thread illustrating the possible gradient pattern I was talking about earlier.

Color me skeptical right now, I don't doubt we get colder and have a brief period of NW flow "events" but we are getting to the point in the season where typical Nina response (Western trough, SE Ridge) conflicts with big cold in the East. Maybe the SSW reshuffles the deck so to speak or provides a resurgence of blocking but I'd bet the big cold look is muted as we get closer in time. If we keep the blocking it would probably setup a gradient type pattern with storms riding along the gradient as it wobbles N to South coinciding with -NAO / SE Ridge strength. Maybe some overrunning WAA type storms. This would probably be more towards the end of the month and if it sets up to far north of your desired location it's a warm wet / cold dry type of setup. One could argue we haven't really had the typically expected Enso response in the past few years due to other factors so the entire base for my argument may be moot anyways. Just throwing some gueses out there right now to stir debate since we will be quiet weatherwise for a bit.

Agree, Still some chance we could see minimal precipitation Tuesday but more like the confluence rips it apart. Seems pretty likely we twiddle our thumbs for another week. Glad Winter came in like a lion with a big December or wasting these first two weeks of January would be more frustrating.

No discrete threats to follow yet, but looks like we should have a period with a more favorable pattern coming up. That could change (the no discrete threat part) in short notice though with all the short waves flying around. I wouldn’t mind some clippers with some enhancement off the still relatively warm lakes as appetizers for some bigger storms later in the month either. I do think we enter a period where misses South / East are more likely when blocking peaks.

Happy New Year everyone! Looks like some solid blocking is showing up on the models. Here's to hopefully more tracking and more importantly big hits in our near future!

Not terribly informative but a "fun" read while we wait for the next snow threat to track: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/12/29/pittsburgh-weather-snow-winter/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2M6BlBRt27u7OKOMsfswAWa5TvFsAgbDNHj_Pz7SKTf8e-4Mdw4ZkLkzk

I'm seeing alot of discussions / debate on whether the higher heights in Greenland are really due to a "true" NAO or just the result of way above normal temperatures inflating past average 500mb heights for this time of year. Still more data says that the precursor to a SSW / PV split is typically above average temperatures for us. All above my pay grade but what I do see is a general lack of cold air. It's odd to see rain on the NW side of a low pressure in early January anywhere let alone up into Canada. I think we just need more time to see how this evolves. Do we end up with the typical Nina response the rest of winter (Nina's are usually front loaded) or does some other factor combined with the a hopefully weakening Nina yield different results. As always expect models to struggle during any change.

Next window to watch for sure although 00z Euro and 12z Canadian ops don't really support and even GFS has shifted west. Still 6-7 days out so who knows how it will play out.