RitualOfTheTrout

I knew you were joking, figured I'd just give you a hard time about it. The next few weeks look as good as any for us to finally score a bigger snow so hopefully we don't fail with bad luck in timing or something. Saw this in the Update NY thread, Euro just a little to far NW and there is a definitely warm tongue signature evident from the snow distribution.

UKIE & CMC are the most NW right now, Euro ticked NW too, and would probably favor putting the jackpot zone in the NW quadrant of the state, it's not the far off and probably just noise at this range. EPS \ GEFS would probably be a decent hit though and are a better tool from this range.

lol slow down man, even if this storm doesn't work out it looks loaded for more threats, I counted at least 3 chances at big storms between now and end of Jan. Don't want to get burnt out. Until things really get close in I don't stay up for the overnight runs (Probably has something to do with getting up at 4:30am for work) but I'd rather check everything all at once in the morning.

Odds are better than average for some significant winter weather when you see multiple runs on multiple models giving us something. Gotta love that 18z run though. Should be a fun week of tracking coming up. If the rug is going to get pulled out hopefully it happens early in the week.

Number 9 would work too. It would make sense if the first storm missed us to the NW as the pattern sets in. If that does happen I just hope it doesn't set the table for a miss SE after.

Yeah it's all personal preference but I'll take any snow over no snow. Can't deny I'm itching for a true big dog though and getting little snows is even better when it's building a pack after a bigger storm and it stays cold for awhile.

Looks like 2 here now. Rates have picked up again so might add a bit more before it shuts down. Probably a good idea to not miss the forest through the trees and enjoy the falling snow for now.

Several acceptable solutions for sure. Pretty much all options on the table and a new look every 6 hours. If there is a big storm I'm not worried about being in the bullseye per say (it would be nice) but just not a shutout followed by an arctic blast. Didn't take any measurements yet but looks like about 1. 5in or so.

Yeah If my yard ends up with 2 I’ll take that as a win. Seems the last couple years the zone between I70 and I80 get caught between one way or another. NWS does hint at some possible upside though: Latest guidance shows decent continuity with previous runs in respect to moisture, lift, and thermal profiles but have trended slightly farther north. Based off forecast QPF amounts and snow ratios still expect a broad 3-4 inches in general along I-70 to the south...lower amounts to the north...and between 4 and 5 (locally higher) accumulations in the higher elevations of Tucker, Preston, and Garrett counties. Ensemble guidance and analogs all support this general scenario as well, but higher res models seem to be picking up on a band farther north roughly between PGH and I-80 where we could see some enhancement as the associated mid/upper low shears and an area of deformation possibly sets up by early evening. With that...have bumped up amounts slightly across northern zones and expanded the Winter Weather Advisory. Late afternoon and through the evening looks to be the timeframe when accumulations will be greatest...easing after midnight. Advisories are still set to end Sunday morning.

And look, it takes 1104 hours for 18in of snow.. Meh.. Next! I'm kidding, really can't argue with all the optimism for the upcoming pattern. The other thing I like is everybody "should" score a decent storm so if your back yard misses it won't be long until the next threat shows up.

Yeah not impressive, we get maybe 1-2 off the initial WAA \ Inverted trough setup, but it's quickly falling apart as it gets to us which makes me lean towards a better likely hood of it being less impressive vs if it was strengthening as it came our way. Good stuff basically dies out in central OH. Best totals will be SW of the City for sure, which is contrast to the last several were being SE was better. We are still a couple days out though, so still time for some tweaks one way or another.

Starting to see some bands setting up on radar. Maybe somebody squeezes and inch or so out of the NW flow. Conditions at least look favorable for snow showers to stick around even the lowlands for awhile.

Normally I wouldn't say this, but for fun I wish the GFS went out to 390 hours: Then looking at 500 you can see energy still rounding the base of the trough, would expect this to go even more boom if there was another frame. Anyways, figured I'd post for fun. Even with all the fantasy storms we see late in runs, its sorta rare to see one riding inland like that. It at least illustrates the potential in the upcoming pattern, whether anything materializes is another thing altogether.

3 would be a nice start, hopefully it holds / improves at 12z today.

I also wonder how much of that is from today and tonight too..

One thing that is a little glimmer of hope is since 6z today there have been slight improvements in the southern sw leading to better heights out in front. Baby steps but if that continues over the next couple days could be a decent event. At this point I'd take a light all day 1-2 inch storm with cold Temps so my bar isn't all that high.

NWS discussion today mentioned possible thunderstorms, and a tornado warning in Mercer already.

I'd kill for a bullseye like that again.. I remember arguing with a buddy of mine over that storm, he saw that weather report from Joe and thought it meant another 20-26 inches was coming. I couldn't get it through his head that was the totals.. Made me so mad at the time lol We were 13-14 at the time though.

Heh.. I wish the Euro ran at 10:30am and the rest of the models came after.. Many afternoons would have been saved throughout my life if it worked that way.. Case in point to this point it has always had a weaker slide off the coast look vs the other models at one point or another showing a decent hit for the area. Still time for things to change though so the beat goes on. Anyways, how about a guide to winter storms in Pittsburgh courtesy of Marge Simpson: https://s3.amazonaws.com/v.comb.io/7RgYK6uN/85wDMW.mp4?1475737112995

Yeah that track is pretty sweet. We don't see one track like that very often. Snow map for your viewing pleasure.

Long range is looking pretty pathetic still at this point. When things looked hostile in mid Dec I wasn't thrilled, but figured we were due for a 2-3 week warmup and figured once we got through the Holiday's we would have a pretty good handle on seeing a better pattern emerge. Well here we are and it still looks bad, maybe some hints that things turn around but we have at least 10-14 more days of wasted January potential barring some fluke setup. If that is how it plays out it's going to take a fairly epic 2nd half of winter to salvage what many (myself included) thought was going to be a good season. I'll keep an open mind for now as it is only Jan 3rd, but seeing the good looks keep getting pushed out is a red flag.

We look poised to add to it through midnight too. Hopefully in the new year we can combine some QPF laden storms with cold air.

FV3 has something to though not as good as GFS. Models have been pretty jumpy but that 3rd-4th window has been popping up a few runs now though not all affect us. Either way it would be nice to have even some snow falling even if it doesn't amount to much. I give it about the same odds as the Steelers making the playoffs lol

Not much to discuss Winterwx wise.. I expected by this time a decent pattern change would be in the works. Mjo lagging in the warm phases at a fairly high amplitude seems to be driving the pattern.

Per the panel Bob posted with the wave heights he will be by the 27th, no climate change required.