RitualOfTheTrout

I’m with you, it was fun to watch. With these you have to set expectations on duration and amounts, it’s all about the heavy snow and almost borderline blizzard like conditions when the embedded gusts gets the snow on the ground going and the heavy falling snow going horizontal.

Same here, heavy snow now.

Picking up now quickly, looks awesome out there.

There's some solid 30 - 35dbz returns in Allegheny now. These lines always seem to split / weaken right before they arrive in my yard, thunderstorm lines the same but holding out hope it holds together.

Looks like I’m in between two of the more moderate parallel bands, just flurries and nearly calm winds.

Snow squall warning for parts of NW PA. Let’s see if anything can hold together down this way.

Looks like NWS is thinking a squall line and NW flow snow after it passes is possible. SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday morning, the aforementioned trough and low pressure system will send an impressive shot of arctic air into the Upper Ohio Valley. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) suggest snow showers along the sfc/low-level front interface may be rather impressive. Low-level instability in a nearly-saturated boundary layer, strong low-level convergence along the front, and fast 0-2km flow will likely yield "squally" convective snow showers, capable of producing a quick light coating of snow, brief low visibility, and gusty wind. Following the quick-moving front and line of convective snow- showers, very cold (850mb air between -18 and -20C) northwest flow across the lakes should induce enough instability and moisture flux for some snow showers in the area through much of Saturday. Guidance continues to advertise very little in the way of QPF and snow accumulation, but thinking this is likely underdone given that Erie isn`t completely frozen over (Lake Erie must be nearly entirely frozen over for it not to release much heat+moisture in cold flows like this). Perhaps the biggest threat to snow accumulation will be very dry near-surface air, which may cause some snow to sublimate before reaching the surface. Regardless, have increased POPs and QPF/snow output from model guidance numbers (which were almost NIL). Thinking a dusting is possible for much of the lower elevations while the I-80 corridor and ridges may receive a couple inches.

Tell me about it, trying to siphon some water off the pool cover, still a chunk of ice about 5-6 inches thick on the one side. I was able to get under it and remove God knows how many gallons of water. Entire back yard is like quick sand..

Pretty impressive rainfall rates with that squall line for sure.

Looks Miller Bish to me. I think the weird look you are describing is the low get's forced to redevelop once it feels pressure from the PV lobes rotating around in NE Canada.

I'm with you, not buying my ticket yet for the polar express snowapoaloza tour yet. I'd also take anything with the GEFS with a grain of salt in terms of just *how* cold as those have had a cold bias in the medium / long range (GFS too) so if they are the coldest and most extreme vs EPS / GEPS I know which way I'd hedge. I'm not trying to deb on a return to cold, if we are gonna do it then late Feb / early March is still good so lets do it and do it right. I'm comfortable saying by the end of Feb we probably drop below normal again but how that translates to snow nobody knows yet and really by March 1st snow is all that matters. Your not going to get sustained cold and snow cover but a moisture laden over running event or closed bomb would sure be fun. The storm at the end of next week (24th - 25th) looks like our typical slop storm, burst of snow and quick change over to rain / mix while areas east stay snow with CAD and areas North avoid the warm tongue. Certainly plenty of time for changes but anything before that looks like primarily a rain outside of the little clipper / cold front this Saturday afternoon.

Gone but unfortunately probably won't ever be forgotten.

500mb I think is fairly accurate at day 8-10 still, at least for a general idea of where ridging / troughing will be. Temperatures and discrete storm threats no; however that's not to say if you see ridging in the east it's wrong to assume odds favor above average but I wouldn't expect modeled 2m temperatures to be a solid bet at that range. I'm not saying it's wrong either, sometimes extremes do verify but there's a good reason outlooks start to weigh climo more the further out you get.

I don't want to go to spring but if the pattern being advertised comes to fruition we won't have much chance and I'd rather not have a bunch of 35 degree rain storms. Certainly we will have cold shots still and maybe we time something right. I agree with you about March, go big or go home. Give me a 6-12+ paste bomb or don't bother. I'll take little 2-4 / 1-2 inch type stuff all day long Mid December through Mid Feb especially if it's staying cold and we are adding to a snow pack. But something like that vaporizes by noon in March. Really detracts from my enjoyment when snow is melting before you even start shoveling. Speaking of snow pack, it's still holding on in my yard but barely.

Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out.

Probably an end to the snow cover stat too. It was technically better that last few storms with the GFS being to far SE at this range giving us more hope so there's that right?

Well that de-escalated quickly. Seemed like if the 6z GFS look improved a bit more we might see something, but it went the other way. In other news around 200 hours GFS is setting up another 33 and rain event. Evolution looks almost identical lol. Luckily at that range it will be different in 6 hours anyways.

Hard not to like the setup this weekend on the 6z GFS, ridge out west allows the trough axis a bit further west. If we can time 2 shortwaves right something could go boom.

Radar keeps juicing up, nice steady light snow coming down. Picked up a fresh coating, maybe we can grab a half inch stat pad. If nothing else another snow globe morning.

Yeah I was like 12ish and really started getting into trying to understand the science behind weather. Checking out books at the library, reading the encyclopedia etc. My ideal winter was formed in the 92-96 period, no wonder I have unrealistic expectations lol.

Yeah, going to really have to score a big win and maybe do some bonus work to bring the GPA up after totally failing December. If winter ended today I'd agree with the C+. Snow pack and cold stretch and all the days with snow falling all day with snow on snow was really enjoyable. Plus we scored on the front end of it. Still snow on the ground from the MLK storm. Pretty steady tracking of threats through the period too. The post tracking blues are in full effect for me. The clippers at the end of the week aren't looking as good, and some signs the western ridge reload may not last. We've been kicking the can on any major warmup and eventually it has to happen. This morning was beautiful though with the snow sparkling in the bright sunlight and bitter cold.

Starting next weekend the pattern looks conducive for the next storm with the ridge in the west amping up. I'd think we start to see storms showing on the operational as we close in like the Euro. Of course where and when are totally up in the air. Prior to that looks like a clipper type system Thursday - Friday time.

Moderate snow again, at this rate the little trough swinging through has really over performed.

So in December 2009 we missed a decent storm to the SE. That year had insane blocking. If I remember correctly the Feb 2010 storm initially basically missed everyone north of the Mason Dixon line on the models. Someone created a detour sign for PA graphic as a joke then subsequent runs started moving North. It was a storm that kept getting better on the models right up through the event. So much so local weather forecasts busted terribly low, even forecasting less than what was already on the ground at one point.

That band that went through earlier was sweet. Briefly heavy snow with big fluffy dendrites. Probably picked up a fresh inch with this latest batch, I prefer daylight snow unless it’s late season / marginal temps but watching those big fluffy flakes fall through the street light is fantastic.