mob1

Fairly large 10 percent tornado contour for today. Not the most impressive wind profiles but we can probably get numerous weak spin-ups in the warm sector.

The Wednesday evening/night threat still looks decent.

They compromised and slapped a severe warning on this. SMH.

Yeah, this isn't a new phenomenon. The storm has had a tight couplet for quite a while now.

Yeah, looks impressive from multiple radar sites. Pretty surprising that it doesn't have a warning.

The tornado warned storm in northern Alabama doesn't look too shabby either.

WOW! That thing is a monster.

Does anyone know if there are any ground reports from Cave Springs? I hate that stupid radar hole.

If that storm in Cave Springs is still producing a tornado, it looks like it just went right over them.

Man, that cell is still going strong and is about to enter Georgia.

Wow, the motion on that tornado east of Ragland is wicked!

While it's still in a crappy radar spot, it still looks like there might be a TOG heading towards Ragland.

The cell near Mabank looks good, wouldn't be surprised if it gets a tornado warning soon. Very impressive hail core as well.

It's really hard to equate how different events will be affected by junk-vection and/or messy storm mode. With that said, it's definitely possible to have a fairly significant event even with very little spacing between storms, just not the violent tornadoes you get with high caliber outbreaks. One other notable difference between this event is also the LLJ, which is already quite impressive even early in the afternoon. Like is always the case though, you always have to temper expectations a little bit when there's basically no cap.

There must be an insane hail core associated with this cell. Edit; the warning does mention 2 inch hail

I'm not really sure either. Updraft Helicity looks somewhat improved over 12Z, especially for TN. Overall it still looks fairly devoid of deep surface based convection.

3K NAM also looks far better (for severe potential) for northern AL/MS and well into TN. Meso models are definitely trending towards a deeper low and better moisture surge.

18Z NAM extends a very significant tornado threat well North of it's previous run.

Some of these SRH values are pretty wild

During last week's event, I kept seeing things like "level 4 severe weather event" and had no clue what it was. It's actually a really good system, numbers speak to people.

If Globals are correct, it might not matter as much if things initiate a bit early as the storm is much more impressive synoptically than what the mesoscale models have. Euro and GFS have a rather impressive deepening LP (sub 990 on the Euro and just a tad higher on the GFS) with some pretty insane upper and mid level winds in the warm sector.

Not bad for an 18Z sounding. As is always the case, details won't be ironed out till early Thursday morning, but there's a lot to work with here. One standout difference from the last event as that the storm will likely be strengthening as opposed to occluding, and the overall trajectory of the LP might be more conductive for a cleaner storm mode.

The 0Z GFS has a very ripe environment for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, as do all the OZ runs so far. Timing and features will shift, but verbatim both the NAM and GFS have loaded gun soundings for parts of Mississippi rather early on Thursday.