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Blizzard-on-GFS

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Everything posted by Blizzard-on-GFS

  1. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Wow radar just filled in nicely for the Philly to Trenton areas! Snowing pretty hard here now in Bordentown. I’ve got a little more hope we can pick up some more accumulation. HRR is spitting out an additional 3-6” which I would be more than happy with.
  2. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Why is the NAM showing another foot for our area? I don’t trust the models anymore. Did it initialize wrong?
  3. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Wow this gonna be a top 3 bust all time for my location near Trenton. At least I’ve learned NEVER to trust a 10-1 snow map again. I looked at the snow depth maps last night and they had this writing on the wall but I didn’t see anyone on these forums posting the maps. If there’s a warm layer nearby it will find a way to muck things up. Also, Miller Bs rarely work out for I-95 and east. And lately, if your on the border of a dry slot, expand the dry slot because subsidence will make areas on the edge lose out every time.
  4. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Literally we got pretty much zero snow from the coastal. This is a top 3 all time bust for my area. 0z runs last night showed a consensus 12-24” additional and we are gonna end up with 1-3” more at most. We might be done already. Feels bad man...
  5. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Lol my 5” in Trenton?! What an epic bust this storm was.
  6. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Yes man, I woke up late today and looked at the radar and immediately said wow holy crap this thing busted. I looked at the radar and got sick, you can tell that that banding is going to pivot north west of us. This will be year three without a good storm, it’s amazing how every time we have a set up at somehow collapses at the last moment...
  7. Blizzard-on-GFS
    HRRR is completely and utterly lost on this one. Just look at the radar sim. It has no CCB and precipitation field to the west of the low. Not gonna happen, it's an extreme outlier. Even the other mesos whole disagree.
  8. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Interesting to see a more north to south cutoff on the jackpot zone emerging compared to the Northeasterly cutoff earlier. Makes sense with a Miller B to see this though.
  9. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I didn’t expect this to be a hugger thorough. But yeah I’d like an all snow event for once, it will be close
  10. Blizzard-on-GFS
    It wasn’t expected, we were all snow on nearly all models till recently.
  11. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Does I-95 mix?
  12. Blizzard-on-GFS
    How are you feeling about TTN? We've been shafted for years lol. Gfs and Euro jackpot us, while the mesos screw us in different ways. I'm probably a bit more nervous then I should bee..
  13. Blizzard-on-GFS
    The best part is it's still snowing past 84 hours lol
  14. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Do you think the coast could see a blizzard warning? The watch says winds to 50mph. I imagine that might meet blizzard conditions. I haven’t been looking at the winds on the models myself but that’s something to keep an eye on
  15. Blizzard-on-GFS
    For north and west yes there is huge spread. For CNJ pretty much every model shows a foot plus. If people are expecting 4” and get over a foot that is a huge difference on impact that people need to prepare for.
  16. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".
  17. Blizzard-on-GFS
    After years of having the rug pulled out from with under me in CNJ I think this storm is finally going to deliver! All models are now showing a CCB rotting over I-95. This storm has that classic look that you want for storms that produce in the I-95 corridor. I really think this pans out as 10"+ for most of this subform. I can break my like 4-5 year drought of no double digit snowstorms.
  18. Blizzard-on-GFS
    The ICON should never be used in a professional forecast. I use it at most to confirm a trend from the rest of the model suite. As a stand alone solution it is completely useless...
  19. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself.
  20. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I'll take 3" of fluff all day! I hate mixing.
  21. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I was just viewing this run and thinking how much a joke the ICON is lol. It certainly should be used by anyone trying to make an accurate forecast. It's always in la la land in the mid range.
  22. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Anytime you have a track with a low riding up the Delaware Bay into Jersey thats no bueno. Especially if MESO models show the warm layer like the NAM did. Sometimes you have to use Meteorology and not model-ology . Synoptically there's no way we were going to get an all snow outcome in our area with that track. I hope people learned their lesson using clown 10-1 maps and even Kuchera. It's snow depth maps or nothing. This forecast was more simple then people made it out to be IMHO.
  23. Blizzard-on-GFS
    sleet in Lambertville
  24. Blizzard-on-GFS
    It has been snowing in Bordentown for about 30 minutes, we have a solid coating already.
  25. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Yup this is a nowcast event for I-95. My call is 5-20". That should about cover it haha. For trenton I'm calling 8-14" but that could easily fall apart. The mixing line cutoff is going to be brutal.
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