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Blizzard-on-GFS

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Everything posted by Blizzard-on-GFS

  1. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.
  2. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Aw man that’s perfect for I-95. This is my dream track, just a hair SE of the GFS.
  3. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I am in Long Beach island and it appears instead of the worst of the winds are from the Cape May area on the due east side of the eyewall moving north East, can anyone confirm that with reports??
  4. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Yeah agree, I'm expecting a brief period of 50 mph. Some of the models have shown higher but they are most likely over done.
  5. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets.
  6. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Awesome, same. I'm in Ship Bottom, NJ on the bay side.
  7. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Not to be a downer but it's a shame this sub forum is dead. I'll be riding this storm out down LBI but there's not many people here to talk too. It's kind of annoying being a drifter between the Mid-Atlantic, NY, and New England sub-forums to find discussion. The true philly/jersey shore area posts get stuck here. Just my 2 cents, I get it if this post is deleted. Just please don't 5 post me.
  8. Blizzard-on-GFS
    These winds are going to be WICKED for the coast line. I don't care what anyone else says. This is a unique setup.
  9. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Wow! Yeah the Jersey Shore and Long Island are gonna get clocked with winds. I’m surprised people are downplaying it. Nearly all the models show hurricane force gusts for the shore points... Care to share the ukie wind map?
  10. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Here comes the eye!
  11. Blizzard-on-GFS
    A tropical storm is likely gonna landfall in the area in the next 48 hours and there’s radio silence in this sub, where is everyone lol? People are sleeping on Fayz
  12. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I thought you said weast...
  13. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Sleet in Bordentown, NJ right now. So when the heavy precipitation moves in from the SW what will the ptype be? If it’s all frozen it looks like a lot of qpf...
  14. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Expected snowfall less than < 1”. Story of our lives for the last tao Years lol. So pathetic. Haven’t even hit an inch yet this year
  15. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Probably a combination of both. I think we end up somewhere in the middle. 1-3” of slop to rain for I-95. 2-5” northwest of there.
  16. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Ok maybe my snow-starved eyes are deceiving me but the moisture shield looks way further north and west then projected on the models. I'm not understanding how it isn't going to swing through the area with at least a coating to an inch.... Just a really weird storm, the low takes the benchmark track, juicy moisture shield, yet we are mostly projected to get nothing. Guess we will see soon enough.
  17. Blizzard-on-GFS
    JUICE!
  18. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I totally agree. To be honest I only come to the Philly thread for observations during events, most of the model discussion happens in the NYC thread. I know we've broached this subject before but I'd be fine with the merger of NYC/Philly. As a CNJ/South Jersey resident I feel caught between two areas. Just my two cents though.
  19. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county, NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub.
  20. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Ugh I ‘m so disappointed, had a 5-8” consensus snowfall last night on the models dwindle down to I’ll be lucky to see 1-2” in CNJ. It’s been a brutal stretch this last year and a half for my area.
  21. Blizzard-on-GFS
    One note is that the 3k NAM is far more generous with QPF especially for southern areas. Notably more banding around CNJ>
  22. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Big OOF on the 12k NAM....this is why we can't have nice things down our way lol.
  23. Blizzard-on-GFS
    Not till the 6z runs.
  24. Blizzard-on-GFS
    HRDPS goes off on Eastern PA and CNJ. RGEM and NAM in tight agreement. GFS now starting to pick up on this well. I think it's overdone, but I'm thinking 6-10" is quite possible under the area this band sets up.
  25. Blizzard-on-GFS
    I think this solution is off the table table at this point. All of the Mesoscale models and now even the goofus show the CNJ death banding.
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