Roger Smith

The best storm of the winter will probably come around 10th to 15th of March. Just a hunch based on the pattern we have now translating into a deeper mid-continent trough once it finally shifts away from the west coast. Although there's currently lots of cold air in good places to your north, that other feature of arctic air diving south into Arizona and New Mexico is bound to produce lows heading northeast from Texas. Like the current one, the best they can do is give a front-end thump. Get one of these fat boys to form further east and head up the east coast, and you've got yourselves a HECS. Thinking March will deliver that potential.

I decided to go up a bit, looks like it should start at coldest time of diurnal cycle which may give it a boost. If only this would all swing south, watch BTV rack up another 15-20 inches. They have had so much snow around Montreal and southern Quebec, roofs are collapsing all over the province.

MLI -- the CAR of the Midwest.

My forecast is a bit of a placeholder based on a quick look yesterday for that other contest (which Herb mentioned, it's cancelled which may tell us something). I may up those figures but looking at the guidance now, looks like a long-term 33 degree rainer once it gets the bit of snow out of its column.

Only if BTV is in the contest. Thanks for the reach out, I didn't know this contest was happening and would have missed it. Going to give this some serious analytical insight, how much front end thumpage ahead of the miserable 52 degree fogfest? Second and final call ... BWI 4.8" IAD 5.4" DCA 2.8" RIC 0.4" tiebreaker 1.25"

ORD is now our fourth location to surpass the contest normal value. GRB missed out and remains just below, as does YYZ until perhaps data for 18th ... confirmed, YYZ is the fifth location to pass contest normal. LSE has increased its total to the point where most forecasters are now accumulating errors there, although still not at the seasonal average. MKE is closing in on that range. In general there has now been about 10% more snowfall than normal across the grid, considering what stage of the season normally shows 82% (closer to Feb 24th than 17th). Nobody has much to worry about (yet) at YXU or CLE. From there towards DTW and FWA, even IND, snowfall totals have been rather low this winter. Relative to normal, it picks up further west and even south into Kentucky.

Final scoring for February 2019 For ATL DEN PHX and SEA, scoring is based on adjusted rank order as no raw scores exceed 60 on current provisionals. However, for ATL one adjusted score was 18, lower than raw score of 20 (for Scotty L) so that one remained at 20 ... scores in orange type are pre-penalty for two forecasters. Highest raw scores for the four locations would be 34 (ATL), 46 (DEN), 30 (PHX) and 57 (SEA). The boost was small for top two scores at SEA and fairly generous after those but rules are rules. Scores in red or blue are warmest or coldest forecasts (after penalties) and scores in bold, including some of those, are high scores. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL (all nine) ___ Stebo _________________70 _ 94 _ 84 __ 248 __ 90 _ 30 _ 68 __ 188 __ 436 __ 60 _ 60 _ 48 __ 168 _ 604 Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ 68 _ 91 _ 81 __ 240 __ 87 _ 29 _ 66 __ 182 __ 422 __ 58_ 58 _ 47 __ 163 ____585 RodneyS __________________64 _ 98 _ 86__ 248 __ 58_ 54 _ 88 __ 200__ 448 __ 30 _ 30 _ 42 __ 102 ____ 550 DonSutherland.1 ____________60 _ 78 _ 58 __ 196 __ 98_ 36 _ 46 __ 180 __ 376 __ 36 _ 48 _ 60 __ 144 ____ 520 ___ Consensus _____________ 56 _ 96 _ 70 __ 222 __ 84 _ 30 _ 56 __ 170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 30 _ 30 __ 090 ____ 482 hudsonvalley21 _____________40 _ 96 _ 66 __ 202 __ 70 _ 42 _ 44 __ 156 __ 358 __ 30 _ 42 _ 36 __ 108 ____ 466 wxdude64 _________________ 50 _ 94 _ 70 __ 212 __ 90 _ 30 _ 56 __ 176 __ 388 __ 54 _ 18 _ 00 __ 072 ____ 462 BKViking __________________ 52 _ 98 _ 84 __ 234 __ 84 _ 12 _ 62 __ 158 __ 392 __ 48 _ 06 _ 12 __ 066 ____ 458 Roger Smith _______________ 94 _ 48 _ 76 __ 218 __ 24 _ 60 _ 86 __ 170 __ 388 __ 00 _ 00 _ 54 __ 054 ____ 442 wxallannj __________________64 _ 94 _ 78 __ 236 __ 44 _ 48 _ 64 __ 156 __ 392 __ 18 _ 24 _ 06 __ 048 ____ 440 Scotty Lightning ____________ 56 _ 92 _ 64 __ 210 __ 64 _ 20 _ 54 __ 138 __ 348 __ 06 _ 12 _ 24 __ 042 ____ 390 ___ RJay __________________ 16 _ 62 _ 44 __ 122 __ 84 _ 00 _ 44 __ 128 __ 250 __ 48 _ 54 _ 30 __ 132 _ 382 RJay _____ (-3%) ___________16 _ 60 _ 43 __ 119 __ 81 _ 00 _ 44 __ 124 __ 243 __ 47 _ 52 _ 29 __ 128 ____ 371 ___ Normal ________________ 36 _ 82 _ 64 __ 182 __ 64 _ 10 _ 34 __ 108 __ 290 __ 15 _ 39 _ 21 __ 075 ____ 365 Tom ______________________26 _ 72 _ 52 __ 150 __ 86 _ 06 _ 36 __ 128 __ 278 __ 12 _ 36 _ 24 __ 072 ____ 350 _______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts Eight of the nine locations qualify, only NYC was a bit below the finish required. DCA __ at +3.2, would be a win for Roger Smith (+3.5) ... win for RS at +2.6 or higher, loss and win to Stebo for lower than +2.6. NYC __ at +0.9 does not qualify as fourth warmest forecast is high score. BOS __ at +1.8, is a win for RodneyS (+1.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0). ORD __ at --1.8, is a win for DonSutherland.1 at --1.7. ATL __ at +6.6, is a win for Roger Smith (+2.5). IAH __ at +3.3, is a win for RodneyS (+2.7) and a loss for Roger Smith (+4.0). DEN __ at --4.5, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). PHX __ at --5.6, would be a win for Stebo (-1.8). SEA __ at --6.7, would be a win for DonSutherland.1 (--3.7).

As you may have noticed, I posted the contest standings in order recently (previous post) and it looks like we're entering a volatile phase of the contest now. The numbers of stations with at least one forecast passed by reality of 2018-19 snowfall has increased with this past event to ten out of the twenty. For quite a while, we were holding at three (MLI, PIA, STL). Then ORD and MSP joined the list a couple of events back. More recent additions are APN, LSE, MQT, GRB and YYZ. We all went quite high on CLE and YXU, those two snow belt areas have been a general dud this winter, while the Lake Michigan snow belt (GRR) has done a bit better (both from lake effect and synoptic scale snow) and our forecasts are already not way too high there on average. Our current leader DAFF has been approaching the red zone (accumulating errors) at quite a few locations recently and may come under some pressure from slowpoke and cyclone77 who are both about 30 inches behind in total departures. Cyclone77 has a big advantage for APN where his forecast can absorb another 25". Anyone further back is going to need to see large additions to various locations where they have some excess capacity. When you look at the table, and compare to any other forecaster, you only have a potential advantage for any stations where your black numbers are larger than theirs. If you have similar numbers, you have no advantage. If you have red numbers of any size, same story (you'll both be adding errors at the same pace). A black minus red differential can be black-doubled to establish advantage (example, I am in the red by 0.5 at ORD, DonS has 14.5 left in his account, so his advantage is 29, as for the next 14.5" he will be decreasing his error total and I will be increasing on mine. ... the size of my red number plays no role, just the black number doubled is in play in those situations.) I think anyone can still win this depending on where the rest of the snow actually falls. However, you don't want to be accumulating at MQT which has a higher ratio of percentage errors to total errors. Later in the contest I will calculate other scoring metrics such as ranks for station errors and average percentage error. Last year we found these were somewhat different from the principal method of total accumulated error. Good luck and remember, April can be very snowy as we saw a couple of years ago (or was it three, time flies).

Thanks, I don't feel terrible about this forecast by any means but there are things about it that have derailed and spun into the ditch. The problem for all of us who made a long-range forecast is trying to make sense of the chaotic pattern, I think when I was saying "variable" I was thinking of variations from type to type of regime but not on the frequency scale we have seen, with all the rather localized anomalies. Consider for example at my own location, we had a lot of very bland, dry weather that you expect to see here in an El Nino winter, a few episodes of snow and cold, then this past week has been much, much colder and now we have 15" of snow from a very minor event in the grand scheme of things that just parked over our valley and let go. So what kind of winter has this been here? Just about any call made by any forecaster would seem right at certain times and wrong at others. I have the feeling there's a lot of that happening all over North America. Yes, it was rather like El Nino to see a fair amount of rain in CA, AZ and into the Gulf states, but I don't think it was quite the classic El Nino. And also, the snow drought (now hopefully ending) in the northeast coastal regions was a fairly confined zone that just happened to park over half the population (and two thirds of this forum's membership), so a similar glitch over a less populated region might have gone unremarked upon altogether. So while some parts of this forecast have done alright, I am not very confident about the end game as described. I won't make excuses about the SSW event because my philosophy is that events like that should be buried in the research methodology as consequences, so it would be disingenuous to claim that it had derailed the forecast in any way. What's more likely true is that the El Nino has weakened to such an extent that I don't think there's a lot of heat energy available to build strong west coastal ridges that will feed mild to warm Pacific air east now, once we get to the end of this current blocking episode. The patterns in the past week have been so singularity-oriented (jet stream south of Hawaii, 20" snow in Seattle after nothing to end of January, Pebble Beach covered with sleet), that I am scrambling a bit to adjust thinking to this rather challenging new pattern and basically, I think what's most likely to happen now is some sort of huge distorted southward push of linked troughs with cut off highs forming at mid-high latitudes, and where did I see that before? 1993. Hmmm. Also some similarity in current pattern to Feb 1888. Hmmm. The plot thickens. I honestly believe we're going to see a historic major storm of some kind in the next month and more likely in March than late February. Even with that, it may not be cold all the time either. A mixed up synoptic soup is on the menu.

I have also updated my various tables, the RIC-oriented tracker was posted Dec 12, DCA-oriented Jan 13, snowfall required Jan 14 (all on page 5 of thread), and a more recent update of top ten snowfall required plus "one storm club" on page seven which is updated ... the one storm club info remains the same because I shaved the small amounts reported yesterday off the hypothetical storm so the results after that have not been altered. Some time later in the contest I will move my tables towards the current discussion but with these small changes nothing much has changed in those tables. Looking at the current GFS run you can see potential for more than 10" of snow in total towards the end of the period, but of course that's often scaled back to small amounts closer to the time. I really don't think anyone down the table is really out of contention yet though, the bottom five might be perhaps. I ran this program on my excel file to see what ranges of snowfall might be good for various forecasts. The program uses ratios of 1.0, 0.8, 1.2 and 0.4 for the four locations (in order, BWI, DCA, IAD, RIC). So for example, there could be 10, 8, 12 and 4 inches additional snowfall. Or there could be any other multiple. This is how it works out as to who wins the contest (but of course the actual snowfall might not follow that ratio) when you add various multiples to the existing snowfalls. I tested for each increase of one inch at BWI and various other amounts by ratio. Then I identified the break points. (1) From a very small increase to BWI 2.9" RodneyS maintains a lead. (RodneyS currently in second to MNT but small amounts using my ratios would change 1st and 2nd). (2) Around 3" BWI weather 53 and stormPC are almost tied, but stormPC edges ahead after 3.2" and holds a lead until BWI reaches almost 8" ... however from 7 to 8 inches at BWI, there is a virtual four-way tie with PrinceFrederickwx, NorthArlington101 and Millvillewx all within 0.2" of stormPC and each other at various points. (3) NorthArlington101 holds a lead from about BWI 9" to 13.5" then both NorthBaltiZen and mappy edge ahead, with mappy in the lead around 15 inches for BWI (and the ratios etc). (4) From 15 to 18 inches, mappy, cobalt and OnceinaLifetime2009 are all close to the lead then by 20" BWI, Once is well out in front, but is caught by southMDwatcher around 22.2" BWI. (5) At amounts greater than 25" budice and then winterwxluvr come into lead positions, and by 35 to 40 inches it would be the few even higher forecasts winning out. All of the above shows that storm ratio will be important as various station to station ratios will eliminate large numbers of the field from contention. Of course, your best bet is to hit your numbers right on, whatever ratios that might require. (sorry, negative ratios will not verify).

Reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ____ (7th) _____ +5.4 _+5.2 _+6.1 ___ +5.6_+14.1_+12.6 ___ +1.0 _--0.3 _--8.1 15th ___ (14th) _____ +3.4 _+2.6 _+4.6 ___ +1.0_ +8.4_ +5.7 ___ +0.1 _--2.8 _--9.0 22nd ___ (21st) _____ +3.2 _+2.1 _+3.1 ___--0.4_ +6.5_ +4.0 ___ --3.3 _--5.0 _--7.2 _8th ___ (p14th) ____ +2.0 _+2.0 _+3.0 ___ +2.3 _ +8.0 _+7.0 ___ --0.2 _--2.0 _--8.0 15th ___ (p21st) ____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+3.5 ___ +0.8 _ +6.0 _+4.5 ___ --1.5 _--4.5 _--7.0 _8th ___ (p24th) ____ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _+4.0 ___ --2.0 _--2.0 _--6.0 15th ___ (p28th) ____ +2.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ +0.2 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0 22nd___ (p28th) ____ +3.2 _+1.8 _+3.0 ___ --0.3 _ +5.0 _+4.5 ___ --2.5 _--4.0 _--6.0 1st ___ (anoms) ____ +3.2 _+0.9 _+1.8 ___ --1.8 _ +6.6 _+3.3 ___ --4.5 _--5.6 _--6.7 _________________________________________________ 8th _ DEN average obscures the change from near +20 to -20 anomalies during the interval. The coming week appears close to average in most places, staying very cold in SEA. The interval from 15th to 24th from GFS was estimated to be near normal in east, +3 southeast, staying below normal in west although with some moderation of current extreme cold values. 15th _ Forecasts were fairly accurate given the large anomalies in play (average error 1.0). The trend for the coming week is fairly similar to established anomalies and the estimate beyond that to 28th maintains a similar trend. Will probably post some provisional scoring soon just for something to look at. SEA has been running record cold and PHX is starting to trend in that direction now as well. 22nd _ Forecasts for this past week have done quite well, the average error is only 0.65 deg which is good for such large anomalies. The west has been much below normal and will moderate slowly this coming week (after a cold weekend). The east remains in the frontal zone with weak warmings interspersed with unexceptional cold spells. I have boosted DCA and dropped ORD from earlier provisionals, other seven are unchanged. Scores will be adjusted. 1st March _ Anomalies are now all posted overnight and scoring adjusted. Some places in the west have had their coldest February on record (including where I live) and the coldest winter month since January, 1979.

Will this turn over to snow in WI and u.p. MI by Thursday? Low continues to deepen and cold air wraps around it. Looks like heavy LES potential for sw MI on Thursday night into Friday.

Snowfall contest 2018-2019 ... updates through Mar 6th ... further updates only in March contest thread. ... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall. Table of departures (red can increase, black can decrease) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ________ 16.9__20.5__26.5___41.5 __29.4 _113.2___32.1 __20.2 __89.1 RodneyS ________________4.4 __ 4.5*_ 11.0*___0.5 _ 14.1 __24.2 ___ 20.4 __15.7__16.1 ___ 110.8 (1) Roger Smith _____________1.1*__ 7.5 _ 18.5 __ 11.0 __ 6.1*_ 23.2 ___28.4 __10.2 __11.1 ___ 117.0 (2) Stebo __________________ 3.7 _ 12.8 _ 27.0 ___ 8.0 _ 17.6 __26.2 ___ 4.9* __ 9.5 __ 7.9 ___ 118.5 (3) hudsonvalley21 __________ 5.1 _ 19.5 _ 35.5 ___ 5.5 _ 18.8 __11.7 ___ 18.9 __14.5 __ 1.1 ___ 130.5 (4) wxdude64 ______________ 6.0 _ 20.1 _ 33.2 ____2.6 _ 16.5 __14.8 ___ 35.5 __13.5 __ 1.2 ___ 143.3 (5) ___ Consensus __________ 7.1 _ 24.0 _ 34.4 ___ 4.0 _ 15.3 _ 20.6 ___ 26.4 _ 13.8 __ 0.3*___ 145.8 ((6)) DonSutherland.1 ________ 15.6 _ 29.5 _ 31.0 ___ 7.0 _ 24.1 __ 3.2*__ 19.9 __16.7 __ 3.9 ___ 150.8 (6) dmillz25 ________________ 7.1 _ 32.5 _ 40.5 ___ 1.5*__8.3 _ 28.2 ___24.9 __15.2 __ 0.9 ___ 159.0 (7) wxallannj _______________ 8.1 _ 26.5 _ 25.5 ___ 7.5 _ 21.6 _ 30.2 ___24.9 __ 7.2 __12.1 ___ 163.5 (8) Tom ___________________ 9.4 _ 35.9_ 39.1 __ 11.9 _ 12.2 _ 18.0 ___30.2 __18.3 __ 0.5*___ 175.4 (9) BKViking _______________ 7.1 _ 34.5 _ 44.5 ___ 6.5 __ 9.6 _ 35.2 ___ 27.9 __ 2.2*_11.1 ___ 178.5 (10) RJay __________________16.1 _ 33.5 _ 43.5 __ 11.5 __ 8.6 _ 13.2 __ 32.9 __14.2 _ 10.9 ___ 184.3 (11) Scotty Lightning __________8.1 _ 21.5 _ 48.5__ 28.5_ 50.6__ 6.8___ 42.9 __10.2 __4.1 ___ 221.3 (12) _____________________________________________________________________________ these are now placed in rank order. * current low departure _ 2 for RodneyS and Roger Smith, one each for Stebo, BKViking, dmillz25, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland1. ranks at this point are correlated with lower forecasts that are approaching 100% with a lot of time left to accumulate errors. Third to seventh are probably in the best position, although Stebo (3rd now) can handle more snow at BTV and can trade that against a potential higher error at ORD after 10-15" more could easily fall there. It does not appear as though anyone can gain from further snow at NYC or BOS, or likely DEN as totals are very low at all of those locations. However, DEN can get heavy falls in March and April so with lowest forecast Stebo could perhaps see some losses to his margin if another 25-30 inches were to fall there. ============================================ Actual forecasts >>> FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ________ 16.9__20.5 __26.5 ___41.5__29.4 _113.2___32.1__20.2 __89.1 RJay __________________33.0 _ 54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0 _ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

Yeah, as long as the half time is not the two minute warning instead.

Various charts that I produced including "snow needed" are now updated back in the thread (on page 5), small type added to more recent post is not updated. What I saw for new snowfall on Feb 1st was 1.1" BWI, 0.9" DCA and IAD, and 0.5" SBY. Only trace amounts at RIC and LYH. This is my version of the top ten, to be confirmed of course. I have added two columns to show total needed vs errors already accumulating (the contest standings would be the sum of these as both are "errors" although one is a good kind and one not so good, until you get to the end of the season, then it reverses). SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED -- post edited on Feb 11th to show small additions Feb 10th (entries in brackets = amounts now in excess of season to date) Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep ___ needed ___ errors accumulating Snow to date __ 1 Feb _____ 11.1 __ 14.0 __ 20.2 __ 13.0 MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ 6.7 ___ 0.2 _____ (0.6) ___(5.2) _____ 12.7 _______ 6.9" ______ 5.8" RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 9.2 ___(0.1) ____ 3.4 ____ 0.3 ______ 13.0 _______12.9" ______ 0.1" Weather53 _________21 _____ 10.1 ___ 2.5 ____ 1.9 ____ 1.7 ______ 16.2 _______ 16.2" ______ 0.0" supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 8.9 ___ (3.0) ___(1.2)___ (4.0) _____ 17.1 ________ 8.9" ______ 8.2" biodhokie __________ 8 ______ 10.2 ___ 3.8 ____ (2.1) ___ 1.5 ______ 17.6 _______ 15.5" ______ 2.1" leesburg 04 _________1 ______ 10.9 ___(2.0)____ 2.8 ____(2.0) _____ 17.7 _______ 11.7" ______ 4.0" Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 8.3 ___ 3.3 ____ 3.3 ____(3.2) _____ 18.1 _______ 14.9" ______ 3.2" Stormpc ___________26 _______ 8.8 ___ 2.7 ____ 4.4 ____ 4.2 ______ 20.1 _______20.1" ______ 0.0" EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _______(0.2) __ (7.5) ___ (9.1) __ (4.3) _____ 21.1 _______ 0.0" ______21.1" Bristow Wx _________ 1 _______ 2.7 ___ (7.3) ___ (7.6) __ (4.3) _____ 21.9 _______ 2.7" ______ 19.2" (then with reference to the full table back on page 5, the only other forecaster who has any accumulating errors other than at RIC is George BM, otherwise the total departures are all "snow needed" for the other 49 forecasters in the list with the exception of five who are already accumulating errors if it snows again at RIC.) ==================================================== (edited to remove amounts from Feb 10) This is the "one more storm club" ... standings that would occur after an 11.2" snowfall at IAD, 9.5" BWI, 7.8" DCA and 4" at RIC ... just a hypothetical but it would be mostly forecasters in the middle of the pack. 1. North Arlington 101 ____ 7.9" (incl 1.0" accum error at IAD) 2. wxwatch007 _________ 10.7" (no accum errors) t3. cae and Millville wx ___ 11.4" (several accum errors each) ... they would be near the lead with a smaller event 5. Prince Frederick wx ____11.7" (same as above) 6. stormPC _____________ 12.8" (same as above) __________________________________________________ I derived those from changing the actual snow in my excel file to those additional amounts. A smaller storm (8, 6, 4 and 2 inches) would leave storm PC in the lead with Prince Frederick wx just 1.1" behind ... adding 0.6" to those totals at either IAD or RIC moves Prince Frederick wx into the lead. So those are the kinds of events you chasers need, some of the rest of us need perhaps two of those events to get into the hunt.

Table of departures -- as percentages of actual snowfall to date _ to May 2nd _ this table was same as earlier contest table which has been placed in rank order, so has now been changed to this new format _ this is an alternate scoring system, the first table above is the official contest scoring table. Numbers represent differences of forecast and actual as % of actual. For example, if a station had 200" snow then a forecast of 180" would read -10 and a forecast of 220" would read +10. The absolute values of these differentials is then averaged to establish rankings. Red numbers can increase in absolute value, black numbers can decrease. (To calculate what percentage of actual snow your forecast is, simply add 100 to the number. For example, -10 means 90%, 2 means 102% of actual snowfall). All numbers can only decrease over time but the absolute value of red numbers can only increase. FORECASTER _______APN.ORD.CLE.CMH.DTW.FWA.GRR.GRB.IND.LSE.YXU. SDF.MQT.MKE.MSP. MLI..PAH.PIA. STL. YYZ ___ AVG _ rank slowpoke ____________-28 _-15_62 _ 6_ 21 _ 21 _-16_ -34 _ 29 _-35 _ 94 __ 7 _-17 _-16 _ -39 _-34 _ 97_-20 __-9 _-13 ___ 29.2 __ 1 cyclone77 ____________ -9 _-11_68 _ 6 _ 31 __5 _-10_ -36 _ 24_ -35_ 129_ -20 _-23 _-23 _-39 _-24_ 80 _-15 _ -1 _-26 ___ 29.7 __ 2 DAFF _______________-25 _-25_ 42_ -5 _25 _ 21 _-10_ -31 __ 3 _-30 _ 91 __ 7 _-24 _-27 _-38 _-38 _130_-20 _-30 _-33 ___ 30.2 __ 3 Roger Smith __________-9_-29 _127 _-1 _ 44 _ 21 _11 _ -5 _ 39 _-14_156 __-6 _-12_ -19 _-14 _-36 _ 97 _-18 _-40 __0 ___ 32.0 __ 4 ___ Contest normal ___-19 _ -23_ 91__4 _ 43 _ 38 _-5 _-27 _ 34 _-28 _123 _ 24 _-12 _-12 _-34 _-45 _ 51_ -32 _-24 _-23 ___ 32.2 _ (4) Mississauga Snow ______-3_-21 _16 _-20_ 60 _ 26 _-14_-39 _-12 _-46 _135 _ -2 _-12_ -39_ -29 _-34_146 _-29 _ 24 _-15 ___ 34.0 __ 5 madwx ______________-15 _-8 _ 88 _ 0 _ 66 _ 46 _ -8 _-33 _ 35 _ -36 _ 91 _ 27 _-20_ -25 _-38_-33 _ 87 _-28 _ -33 _ -7 ___ 35.3 __ 6 ___ Contest median ___ -23 _-15_ 88 _ 0 _ 44 _ 34 _-8 _-34 _ 35 _-37 _106 _ 25 _ -17 _-23 _-37 _-36 _146_-20__ -9 _-11 ___35.9 _ (7) vpbob21 ____________-23 _-11 _ 41 _ 27 _ 38 _ 34_-19_-36 _ 62 _-40 _106 _120 __-5 _-20 _-31 _-26 _177 _ 0 _ 10 _ -6 ___ 40.5 __ 7 Stebo ______________-35 _-29_136_-20_ 53 _ 50 _ -5 _-39 _ 29 _ -46 _ 76 _ 61 _ -19 _-29 _-55 _-49 _195 _-45_-17_ -9 ___ 46.9 __ 8 Jackstraw ___________-28 _-39_159 _ -1 _31 _ 46_ -8_ -34 _ 60 _-52 _ 88 _ 25 __ -7 _ -38 _-61_ -44 _261 _-45 _-34_-17___ 49.8 __ 9 dmc76 _____________ -23 _-7 _134 _42 _ 87_ 94 __ 1 _-25_ 48 _-37 _207 _ 58 _ -17 _-4 _ -38 _ -56 _244 _-40 __ 3 _15 ___58.2__10 DonSutherland.1 ______-18 _ 1 _138 _64 _ 81_ 68 __1 _-34_120_-41 _222 _105 _ -36 _-16_ -48 _ -47 _203 _ -4 __ 4 _-11___63.1 __11 ___________________________________________________________ ... ranks of contest normal and median do not change ranks of forecasters in contest, and they are independent of each other's rank. ... confirmed best forecasts are in bold type. 

Table of forecasts February 2019 FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _______________ +3.5 _+3.5 _+3.0 __+2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _--3.5 Stebo ____ (-3%) __________ +1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___--1.8 _--1.8 _--1.7 wxallannj __________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _+2.1 _+1.5 ___+0.2 _+0.7 _+1.0 RodneyS __________________ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.1 __+0.3 _+2.4 _+2.7 ___--0.3_+0.3 _--1.3 DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.2 _--0.2 _--0.3 __--1.7 _+1.5 _+0.6 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--3.7 Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.0 _+0.5 __0.0 ___0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.0 _+0.7 _+0.3 __--1.0 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--0.3 _+0.3 _--1.0 BKViking __________________ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.0 __--1.0 _+0.6 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 wxdude64 _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.3 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+1.1 ___--1.4 _+0.8 _+1.9 hudsonvalley21 _____________+0.2 _+0.7 _+0.1 __--0.3 _+1.8 _+0.5 ___--0.3 _+0.1 _--1.1 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom ______________________--0.5 _--0.5 _--0.6 __--1.1 _--0.4 _+0.1 ___+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.5 RJay _____ (-3%) __________ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __--1.0 _--1.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0

Final scoring for January 2019 FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ all nine TOTAL hudsonvalley21 ____________94 _ 88 _ 70 __ 252 __ 20 _ 56 _ 92 __ 168 __ 420 __ 98 _ 98 _ 60 __ 256 _____676 wxallannj _________________80 _ 62 _ 90 __ 232 __ 00 _ 96 _ 94 __190 __ 422 __ 98 _ 86 _ 66 __ 250 _____ 672 Roger Smith _____________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266 __ 04 _ 42 _ 84 __ 130 __ 396 __ 96 _ 82 _ 76__ 254 _____ 650 DonSutherland.1 ___________92 _ 94 _ 52 __ 238 __ 00 _ 76 _ 88 __ 164 __ 402 __ 86 _ 82_ 78__ 246 _____ 648 ___ Consensus ___________100 _ 76 _ 80 __ 256 __ 14 _ 56 _ 92 __ 162 __ 418 __ 96 _ 86 _ 48 __ 230 _____ 648 wxdude64 ________________96 _ 76 _ 80 __ 252 __ 48 _ 40 _ 90 __ 178 __ 430 __ 98 _ 84 _ 32 __ 214 _____ 644 RJay ____________________ 84 _ 58 _ 96 __ 238 __ 14 _ 78 _ 86 __ 178 __ 416 __ 94 _ 98 _30 __ 222 _____ 638 Scotty Lightning ___________ 94 _ 78 _ 74 __ 246 __ 34 _ 78 _ 76 __ 188 __ 434 __ 74 _ 82_ 40 __ 196 _____ 630 ___ Normal _______________76 _ 98 _ 64 __ 238 __ 44_ 48 _ 94 __ 186 __ 424 __ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 _____ 630 BKViking _________________ 92 _ 86 _ 76 __ 254 __ 24 _ 44 _ 74 __ 142 __ 396 __ 96 _ 88 _ 34 __ 218 _____ 614 Tom _____________________46 _ 80 _ 40__ 166 __ 94 _ 00 _ 96 __ 190 __ 356 __ 76 _ 86 _ 62 __ 224 _____ 580 Stebo ___________________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266__ 10 _ 38 _ 70 __ 118 __ 384 __ 88 _ 82 _ 10 __ 180 _____ 564 RodneyS _________________ 60 _ 28 _ 80 __ 168 __ 00 _ 84 _ 62 __ 146 __ 314 __ 88 _ 78 _ 48 __ 214 _____ 528 _______________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts ... DCA, IAH, PHX and DEN have high scores near middle of pack. NYC was cold enough at -0.1 to make DonS the winner with second coldest forecast (Normal also gets a win) and Tom takes a loss with coldest forecast and a lower score. BOS was the other way round, second warmest forecast of RJay (+2.0) wins and RodneyS takes the loss. ATL has the same result, except that it's wxallannj (+2.4) with the win and RodneyS a bit too warm there also. ORD ended so cold (-2.8) that Tom is a winner at -2.5, and his score will freeze your scores too (no mercy rule if anyone's raw score is 60+). With the anomaly at +3.3 on the 24th, Tom's -2.5 was looking like a real outlier until this mega-cold-wave showed up (ORD anomalies have been dropping about 1.0 per day, unheard of at end of the month). SEA was locked into a finishing value between Don's highest forecast (+4.1) and Roger's second highest (+1.8), so +3.0 (or higher) made it a win for Don. So ... five locations qualify, three where a win-loss situation developed and two with an outright winner. STANDINGS DonSutherland1 ______ 2-0 Tom ________________1-1 RJay ________________1-0 wxallannj ____________1-0 Normal ______________1-0 RodneyS ____________ 0-2 ______________________________________________________________________________

IND finished with 11.7" in January, Jackstraw at 12.0" wins this tiebreaker. We just passed 600" total and are very close now to 60% of contest normal snow. Ranks of total departures are now shown, the table will be placed in order when it gets closer to the final countdown.

+3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ --3.5

It hasn't snowed at all in Seattle WA. That is rather unusual, they don't get a lot of snow but usually one or two events and 5 to 15 inches is common for a winter season. But they are sitting at 0.0" ... Boston MA has had all of 1.9" so far, at Logan anyway, other parts of the city may have had 5 to 10 inches. That map looked fairly accurate to me away from the mountains anyway, in our snowfall contest, snow has been above normal in most places southwest of Chicago and below normal north and east of there so far, although Toronto just got hit with enough to bring them back to at least normal pace, probably above. Buffalo has had a lot of snow recently.

Then why do studies show that magnitude of urban heat island is inversely proportional to wind speed? Last night illustrated that. My belief is, if the urban stations went calm, the differential would stay large. Maybe it's a trade-off, a calm wind at this point would encourage radiational cooling within the urban heat island, but at the same time, no frigid rural air could flow in (as was the case last night).

ORD could use a 10 to 15 mph wind to negate the urban heat island. This is why they are going flat-line. I'm only going by what I see on maps but ORD is nowhere near the urban-rural boundary and MLI is probably an essentially rural site. Even so, ORD will probably drop about five degrees later on, urban heat islands still radiate heat to space, they just don't do it as efficiently as non-urban settings.

I will update my charts tonight after seeing today's totals, meanwhile looking at guidance, can see potential for a bit more in the next few days, would be lucky to get 2" though. Most of us are going to need something to change in this two weeks or appear on the maps in mid to late February. Charts now updated (scroll back to page five, the chart in small type in a recent post was not updated). Matches the top ten as shown, except that 0.1" more fell at IAD.

Coldest reading in Canada at 09z was again Key Lake SK -46.6 C (-52 F). Coldest in Manitoba is Norway House at north end of Lake Winnipeg, -44 C (-47 F). Lighter winds now around Winnipeg and unlike earlier in the 25 mph northerly, an urban heat island effect is noticeable. -39 C at YWG essentially rural on western edge, -34 C downtown. That's -38 and -29 in F. Reporting this because that high will be over Iowa tomorrow night so that similar differentials may apply around Chicago and other nearby cities. The -52 F reading is slightly to the west of the high center as analyzed. I recall the 1994 cold spell, we got it full blast in Ontario too, had an overnight reading of -40. Similar cold in Jan 1976 around 22nd-23rd. For southern Ontario, however, nothing matches the Feb 8-9 1934 cold (-46 in Bancroft) and Lake Ontario froze over completely, the only time in the 20th century that happened. Lake Superior ice is rapidly advancing from shorelines according to latest ice maps and some coverage now in sheltered parts of northern Lakes Michigan and Huron.