Roger Smith

The backup of posts is no longer needed and has been deleted now that the table of entries is complete. Good luck everyone and welcome to Stormchaser Chuck. I have posted scoring for October including an annual update; this will be adjusted tomorrow but the anomalies cannot change very much as they are based on all info now. See also notes at the bottom of the annual update about your status in the best forecast and extreme forecast tables. If S.C. wins any of those awards, it will be noted but then a second award will take place within the regular group of forecasters (which includes DZ who has four contests now -- if you're wondering why you can't see DZ in the thread, he submits by e-mail as this is his only participation in Am Wx at present.) Which reminds me, check my e-mail.

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Oct) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved down one relative to forecasters (from being between 3rd-4th to the gap between 4th-5th). Normal moved down two positions (from 8th-9th to 10th-11th gaps in the forecaster rankings). Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 707 _758 _502 _ 1967 __638 _788 _696 _2122_ 4089__466 _683 _670 _1819___ 5908 RodneyS (up 1) _______________ 653 _732 _515 _ 1900 __511 _756 _612 _ 1879__3779 __566 _694 _698 _ 1958___ 5737 BKViking (down 1) ____________ 685 _758 _515 _ 1958 __471 _733 _666 _ 1870__3828 __555 _631 _674 _ 1860___ 5688 Tom (up 1) ____________________ 718 _797 _561 _ 2076__447 _649 _684 _ 1780__3856 __542 _601 _658 _ 1801___ 5657 ___ Consensus (down 1) ______ 715 _762 _506 _ 1983 __474 _706 _652 _ 1832__3815 __546 _603 _668 _ 1817___ 5632 wxallannj (down 1) ___________ 643 _710 _469 _ 1822 __451 _670 _664 _ 1785__3607 __678 _569 _726 _ 1973___ 5580 hudsonvalley21 (up 1) ________692 _731 _522 _ 1945 __426 _718 _636 _ 1780__3725 __489 _608 _721 _ 1818___ 5543 RJay (up 4) __________________ 655 _707 _556 _ 1918 __532 _679 _617 _ 1828 __3746 __533 _511 _549 _ 1593___ 5339 so_whats_happening (up 1) __ 743 _715 _389 _ 1847 __482 _732 _563 _ 1777__3624 __470 _598 _627 _ 1695___ 5319 wxdude64 (down 3) __________674 _645 _475 _ 1794 __398 _685 _644 _ 1727__3521 __580 _585 _624 _ 1789___ 5310 Scotty Lightning (down 1) ____ 675 _700 _448 _ 1823 __361 _634 _608 _ 1603__3426 __550 _577 _676 _ 1803___ 5229 ___ Normal (down 2) __________652 _616 _344 _ 1612 __286 _690 _670 _ 1646 __3258 __530 _644 _678 _1852___ 5110 Roger Smith __________________619 _566 _288 _ 1473 __460 _592 _686 _ 1738 __3211 __502 _539 _656 _ 1697___ 4908 Deformation Zone _ (4/10) ___ 233 _ 218 _154 __ 605 __152 _286 _252 __690___ 1295 __226 _ 230 _ 264 __720___2015 (for comparison prorated)^^ __583 _ 545 _385 _1513 __380 _715 _630 _ 1725 __3238 __565 _ 575 _ 660 _1800 __ 5038 _ this may not be exact because scoring in the four months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg. Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 2 __Feb,Jul BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr Tom __________________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 69 locations out of 90 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September and October. Of those, 38 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 31 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _______ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 _ 0-1 __ 14-3 RodneyS ____________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 11-1 wxallannj ____________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-0 DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 10-1 ___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ 0-0 __ 9-0 RJay _________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0*__ 9-0 so_whats_happening _--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 _ --- __ 7-0 Tom __________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 5-0 wxdude64 ___________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ 4-0 Deformation Zone ___ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 __ 4-1 BKViking _____________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1 Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1 __________________________________ * RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. ** Note that for best forecast and extreme forecast awards, players in these current tables will be eligible after any first time forecasters are evaluated in November (seeing as one at least has entered -- meaning that if one of those new entrants wins then the field will be re-evaluated without that score involved).

--0.3 __ --0.4 __ +1.0 __ --1.5 __ --1.5 __ --1.2 ____ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.8

Now that the New England storm has become STS Wanda, we are at 21/7/4. Later today I will edit changes into previous posts about scoring, removing now-excluded possible outcomes. Wanda could become a hurricane (not the current NHC prediction) but seems unlikely to be a major hurricane so that 21/7/4 and 21/8/4 scoring will remain as well as options for 22/7/4, 22/8/4 and 22/8/5 and 22/9/4, 22/9/5 -- previous scoring tables are now updated.

Imagine the fun you could have in these contests if you could control the weather or travel in time to find out the results. Like olafminesaw.

The biggest snowstorm in recent years happened after the warmest December, so the argument that the current warming climate will cap this potential is inherently weak. The distribution of extreme precip events tends to swing wider from the median than temperatures which rarely do what I experienced here this summer, a 5 degree increase on long-term extremes. It is not so surprising when a new rainfall record for a given location is twice the value of the old one it replaces. Subjectively, I don't imagine that snowstorms from 2010 and 2016 will be beaten in this coming decade but would you bet against them being edged out within a century? So I think maybe the answer to this question is around 40" and possibly more. A very high snowfall total for one storm in your region would definitely require a stalled low tucked into the coast in a suitably cold regime. This rarely happens but there is no theoretical reason why it couldn't happen. If there was a natural variability change to colder climates, which probably will happen at some point in the next century or two, then the odds of such an event would improve. So I would hazard the guess that if anyone retrieves this thread in the year 2100 and checks it out, they will be talking about the 35 to 40 inch snowstorm of 2063 or some such thing, and wondering did we hoary ancients foresee such a thing? I just did.

I am not quite as pessimistic as some ... BWI: 23.5" DCA: 18.2" IAD: 26.6" RIC: 14.8" Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): LYH 18.9"

I would not give up hope for this winter. For one thing, warm Octobers have often been followed by productive winters in the northeast so that can't hurt the chances for the Mid-Atlantic. Don't know how your region did with the epic Dec 26th 1947 (NYC region) storm but that followed the warmest October on record. Octobers of 1963 and 1971 were high on the list also, and had at least reasonable winters with spells of mild and cold and one decent snowfall event (again this is for the northeast, I don't have your historical records at hand). And on the other hand cold Octobers have often been followed by unproductive winters. This of course is only analogue forecasting without reference to teleconnections or other more sophisticated indices. Some of the years that have looked rather similar to 2021 (albeit in cooler climate decades) include 1898 which had a famously cold and snowy winter following on. 1916 had a cold winter (1916-17), not sure as to snowfall with that. Also would point out that recent storms are showing tendencies to do things that we can say would be good for snow potential if they did similar things in the heart of the winter season. Overall I am going to make a fairly moderate prediction (in the snowfall contest) but I do think there is potential for this to turn out better than some are fearing. Totals around 15-25 inches may be attainable. It won't likely be a top ten sort of winter but there may be one memorable cold spell and snowstorm associated.

Tie breaker now 3.01" ... congrats peribonca, George BM, toolsheds.

The NHC continue to suggest that this storm now northeast of Bermuda heading southeast may become Subtropical Storm Wanda in a few days. So for a name it could be Wanda in the Womb, or maybe Backwards Bob. Perhaps re-analysis will establish that it was already TS Wanda in its earlier rampage, and as somebody mentioned, it was very close to cat-1 hurricane intensity over the Cape. The perfect storm of 1991 is now referenced as an "un-named hurricane."

83 mph gusts in that list for Wellfleet, near the band (and 2h ago now), also since I checked, 88 mph Vineyard Haven.

Radar showing some rather extreme looking thunderstorms approaching Cape Cod from ENE. Perhaps wxw007 can let us know what happens there although the echoes are somewhat north of where I think his position is. Had a look at peak wind gusts reported, 87 mph Scituate was the highest I noted, several others in low 80s. (mph)

The low center will apparently pass between the Nantucket buoy and the island because at the buoy, winds are backing from north to northwest as it approaches. At the harbor, steady NNE. Would look for the low to be a few miles south of ACK by 04-05z. Winds will continue to increase until at least then.

Estimate 978 mb and position around 41N 68W approx 100 nm east of ACK. Will pass over or very close to buoy 44008 in about 3-4 hours. Currently about 985 mb there and strong NNE wind steady in the 30-50 knot range. The buoy that it was near a few hours ago has only slowly rising pressure telling us that the center is deepening as it pulls away to the west of that location. Unfortunately no other buoys much closer than these two.

Today's rainfall at NYC would already be a record for the 27th or 28th but has to get past 3.40" by midnight to beat 1943 for today's crown. If it does that, I believe that will be seven daily records for the year. 1983 had nine and 1913 had eight. The record for the 27th is much lower, only 1.88" from 2003. I suppose it's possible both records could go and then the year would be in that second place tie with 1913.

A recent check of reports from buoy 44011 (Georges Bank) and satellite animation suggests that retrograde center has formed around 40 nm southwest of that location or around 40.8 N 67.5 W and until last few obs the winds were gusting to 65-70 mph at that buoy, slight decrease past half hour and pressure check-rise probably means that strongest winds are now heading west. From both GFS and RGEM the track of this feature looks to be just to the south of ACK around 04-06z. Strongest winds to coast probably 03-05z, my guess peak winds at BOS around 65 mph, land areas of s.e. MA 75-80 mph. Will gradually back off to 45-55 and stay in that range for most of the overnight. U probly knew that but just putting it up as a thought.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for these nine locations ... ____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline 06z Monday Nov 1st or late Sunday evening or very early Monday (2 a.m. EDT) ... may do the snowfall contest with the DEC contest this year. Good luck !

Final scoring for October 2021 Scoring is based on the most recent provisional end of month anomalies posted in the previous post. For now, the scoring is posted in the same order as the forecast table. This makes updates a bit faster. Asterisks refer to one or two point deductions for late penalties. (* one point deduction, ** two point deduction). ^ _ The top raw scores for DCA were 59 and 58, these were boosted by one to satisfy the max 60 rule, all other raw scores were higher than minimum progression levels. PHX (max raw score 56) also required the "max 60" scoring but it made only slight differences to all scores, as most stayed at or near the raw scores anyway. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _ c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL RJay __________ (-1%) ___ 59^* 87*_72*__218 ___ 92*_93*_79*__264__482 __87*_34*^_53*__ 174 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 51 _ 78 _ 55 __ 184 ___ 97 _ 98 _ 72 __267 __451 __ 64 _ 55^_ 68 __ 187 ___ 638 Tom ____________________ 60^_ 90 _ 69 __219 ___77 _ 92 _ 64 __233 __452 __ 22 _ 24 _ 96 __ 142 ___ 594 RodneyS ________________39 _ 80 _ 55 __ 174 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 62 __199 __373 __ 72 _ 60^_ 68 __ 200 ___ 573 Deformation Zone ______ 35 _ 68 _ 79 __ 182 ___ 63 _ 80 _ 50 __ 193 __375 __ 34 _ 50^_ 90 __ 174 ___ 549 ___ Consensus __________ 37 _ 62 _ 51 __ 150 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 64 __ 201 __351 __ 70 _ 35^_ 66 __ 171 ___ 522 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%)__ 38*_ 59*_46*__143 ___ 30*_ 82**_76**_188__331 __ 59*_45*_ 65* _169 ___ 500 wxallannj _______________ 31 _ 58 _ 27 __ 116 ___ 53 _ 90 _ 60 __ 203 __319 __ 88 _ 08 _ 84 __ 180 ___ 499 so_whats_happening ___ 46 _ 52 _ 23 __ 121 ___ 57 _ 70 _ 60 __ 187 __ 308 __ 72 _ 40 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 496 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____32*_ 53*_ 36*__121 ___ 44*_78**_63*_ 185 __306 __ 74**34*^_53*__161___ 467 Roger Smith ____________ 35 _ 64 _ 53 __ 152 ___ 43 _ 54 _ 44 __ 141 __293 __ 86 _ 14 _ 52 __ 152 ___ 445 Scotty Lightning ________ 15 _ 38 _ 19 __ 072 ___ 05 _ 70 _ 70 __ 145 __ 217 __ 54 _35^_ 50 __ 139 ___ 356 ___ Normal ______________00 _ 18 _ 00 ___018 __ 00 _ 50 _ 40 __ 090 __ 108 ___ 44 _ 48 _ 60 __ 152 ___ 260 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) ____ 05^_ 08 _ 00 __ 013 __ 00 _ 57*_ 49*__ 106 __119 ___ 65*_16 _ 55*__ 136 ___ 255 _____________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a win for highest forecast (without penalty) Tom (+3.4). "No decision" for RJay (+3.4, one point penalty). _ NYC (+4.1) is a win for Tom (+3.6) with highest forecast. _ BOS (+5.1) is a win for Deformation Zone (+4.0). _ ORD (+5.7) is a win for highest forecast Don Sutherland at +6.0. _ ATL (+2.5) finished closest to third warmest forecast so does not qualify. _ IAH (+3.0) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with highest forecast. _ DEN (+2.8) is a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) and a win for wxallannj at +2.2. _ PHX (-2.6) is a win for coldest forecast of RodneyS (-0.4). _ SEA (-2.0) is a win for Tom at -1.8 and a loss for DZ at -2.5. Overall results: eight forecasts qualify, six for warmest and two for coldest forecasts.

October anomalies so far and projections ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 13th ___ (12d anom) ____ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ +5.0e__+11.5 _+4.9 _+2.7 __+4.1 _ -3.2 _ -5.4 23rd ___ (22d anom) ___ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +6.6 __ +8.0 _ +3.8 _ +2.6 __+1.8 _-3.8 _ -2.4 13th __ (p20d anom) ____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +7.5 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 13th __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 23rd __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 __+2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 30th __ (adjusted) _______+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 __+3.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 Final anomalies __________+5.5 _ +4.1 _ +5.1 __ +5.7 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+2.8 _-2.6 _-2.0 _______________________________________________ 13th _ A generally warm start except in the west which has been quite cold. BOS est from +4.4 11th and +10 departure on 12th ... forecast to 20th based on somewhat reduced warmth in most areas and a slight rebound for the west to near normal values, then the projection to end of the month (GFS run ends 29th) is based on similar trends with the introduction of more variable and sometimes quite cold weather in the plains states reaching the Midwest at least. This will bring the anomalies for ORD back into the range of our forecasts hopefully. 30th _ Have updated the monthly anomaly projections in a two cases (IAH, DEN), the rest are not looking too far off and can be adjusted at final scoring stage. This will allow for a reliable preview of the actual order of scoring for the month. I am hoping PHX warms up a bit more than shown so that I won't need to use max 60 scoring there (for -2.5 the highest score was 58). 31st-1st _ Posting final anomalies overnight and adjusting scoring.

The warmest October on record in most parts of the northeastern US was either 1947 or 1963, both come out very close to tied in many cases. Epic snowstorms followed these warm Octobers (Dec 26, 1947 and Jan 1964). Another very warm October was 1971, and Feb 1972 was quite a wintry month. So this autumn warmth is not necessarily a bad sign for the coming winter. Cold Octobers have often been followed by rather bland winters. I posted elsewhere that I think this might be a pretty good winter in the northeastern US. The bar is rather low after the last few, of course, although NYC has managed to wring out some decent totals when DCA and BOS failed to do so. It has been unusually cold here in the western interior regions since a warm spell in late September ended. SEA has an anomaly of -4 F to this point, and where I live we have seen snow twice already, and had a sharp frost on two occasions. Hopefully this will be a cold trough that does not anchor itself here but shows some progressive tendencies. I think that report on mild temperatures in the central arctic has to be a good indicator too. That is usually correlated with cold in the western arctic moving southeast around an upper low that needs to form near northern Hudson Bay to get the mild air into that region (it seldom comes from the south or southwest, usually from the east up that way from the open waters of Baffin Bay).

Using a technique of weighted analogues by natural variability factors, I have determined the following prospects for the winter of 2021-2022 in North America. Cold may play a significant role compared to some recent winters. Severe cold is likely to show up fairly often in central regions and will sometimes spread into the northeastern US and mid-Atlantic states, even the southeast a few times. A coastal storm track may develop and snowfall could be generous compared to recent winters in the larger urban areas of the eastern U.S. Mid-January to early March is favored for the best winter synoptics in the east but December is not ruled out either. Following a sustained warmth this month lasting well into November, would look for a highly variable pattern to develop by late November and some cold outbreaks in December mixed with much milder spells. This could yield some cold spells of a few days' duration and possibly one significant snow event. A milder spell seems likely around Christmas to New Years and into the first ten days of January, followed by a series of colder outbreaks some of which could be quite severe. This will set up a better than average east coast snowfall potential. One of several years that showed up in the analogue set was 1898 (into 1899) which featured an epic arctic outbreak in mid-February. But in general, the index values tend to show equal chances of severe cold in late January and early to mid February, so perhaps one good spell in each month. The March index values tend to show a sharp reversal from severe cold at first to record warmth later. Anyway, I for one do not expect this winter to be as frustrating an experience as the last few have been for east coast snowfall fans, and the Midwest and Great Lakes could have quite a severe winter. Expecting the inland west to be quite variable with a persistent mild signal for the Pac NW and coastal BC into the western prairies due to frequent chinook activity, as the main track for severe cold will be through eastern SK and MB into the Dakotas and Minnesota.

September 2021 summary: Toronto mean 18.4 C (t-22 warmest of 182 yrs with 1985) adjusted to u.h.i. 17.3 C (t-27 warmest of 182 yrs with 1846, 1920, 1985) _ _ note was t-21 warmest (raw) and t-26 warmest in the overlapping period, 1865 was the one year warmer in either case before NYC began obs. rainfall 138.6 mm (16th wettest of 182) one new daily rainfall record (22nd _ 49.9 mm) _ narrowly edged out the rainfall from Hugo's tropical storm rainfall from 1989 (47.3 mm). no daily temperature records --------------------- NYC mean 21.28 C (70.3 F) was t-26 warmest of 153 yrs with 1898, 1945, 1948, and 2007). NYC adjusted to u.h.i. 20.18 C (68.3 F) (t-41 yrs warmest of 153 yrs with 2007). rainfall 10.03" (6th wettest of 153) 7.13" rainfall 1st new daily record no daily temperature records --------------------- Overall, a quite warm and very wet month although after the 7.13" fell on the 1st at NYC the rest of the month had about the normal September rainfall amount 2nd-30th.

Table of forecasts for October 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias Tom ____________________ +3.2 _+3.6 _+3.5 __ +4.2 _+2.9 _+1.2 ___ -1.1 _ +1.2 _ -1.8 ____ +0.23 RJay __________ (-1%) ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.7 __ +5.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 ___+2.2 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ +0.99 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 __ +6.0 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___ +1.0 _-0.1 _-0.4 ____ +0.48 so_whats_happening ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +3.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.4 _+0.4 _-0.8 ____ -0.36 RodneyS ________________ +2.2 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.4 _-0.4 _-0.4 ____ -0.03 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%) __+2.2 _+2.1 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+1.7 _+1.9 ____+0.8 _+0.1 _-0.3 ____ -0.22 ___ Consensus __________ +2.1 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ____ +1.3 _+1.0 _-0.3 Deformation Zone ______ +2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ____ -0.42 Roger Smith _____________+2.0 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ +2.5 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+3.5 _+1.7 _+0.4 ____ +0.08 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____ +1.9 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +2.6 _+1.5 _+1.2 ____ +1.6 _+1.0 _+0.3 ____ -0.11 wxallannj ________________+1.8 _+2.0 _+1.4 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.0 _-1.2 ____ -0.07 Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ -0.76 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ -1.64 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) _____ -0.7 _-0.5 _-0.3 ___-0.8 _+0.4 _+0.5 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+0.2 ____ -1.48 _____________________________________________________ Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for ATL, IAH. Bias reveals the average departure of each forecaster (and Normal) from the consensus.

Suspect it will be warm and then mild/wet like 1963, first frosts could be quite late. DCA _ Dec 4 IAD _ Nov 25 BWI _ Nov 25 RIC _ Dec 4 max 24h rain BWI 2.04"

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Sep) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up two relative to forecasters. Normal remained in its previous position. Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 656 _680 _447 _ 1783 __541 _690 _624 _1855__3638 __402 _628 _602 _ 1632___ 5270 BKViking (up 1) _______________ 653 _705 _479 _ 1837 __427 _655 _603 _ 1685__3522 __481 _597 _621 _ 1699___ 5221 RodneyS (up 2) _______________ 614 _652 _460 _ 1726 __456 _674 _550 _ 1680__3406 __494 _634 _630 _1758___ 5164 ___ Consensus (up 2) ________ 678 _700 _455 _ 1833 __419 _624 _588 _ 1631__3464 __476 _568 _602 _ 1646___ 5110 wxallannj (down 2) ___________ 612 _652 _442 _ 1706 __398 _580 _604 _ 1582__3288 __590 _561 _642 _1793___ 5081 Tom (up 1) ____________________ 658 _707 _492 _ 1857__370 _557 _620 _ 1547__3404 __520 _577 _562 _ 1659___ 5063 wxdude64 (down 2) __________ 669 _637 _475 _ 1781 __398 _628 _595 _ 1621__3402 __515 _569 _569 _ 1653___ 5055 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 654 _672 _476 _ 1802 __396 _636 _560 _ 1592__3394__430 _563 _656 _ 1649___ 5043 Scotty Lightning ______________ 660 _662 _429 _ 1751 __356 _564 _538 _ 1458__3209 __496 _542 _626 _ 1664___ 4873 ___ Normal ____________________ 652 _598 _344 _ 1594 __286 _640 _630 _ 1556 __3150 __486 _596 _618 _ 1700___ 4850 so_whats_happening _________ 697 _ 663 _366 _ 1726 __425 _662 _503 _ 1590 __3316 __398 _558 _551 _ 1507___ 4823 RJay __________________________ 596 _620 _484 _ 1700 __440 _586 _538 _ 1564 __3264 __446 _477 _496 _ 1419___ 4683 Roger Smith ___________________584 _502 _235 _ 1321 __ 417 _538 _642 _ 1597 __2918 __416 _525 _604 _ 1545___ 4463 Deformation Zone _ (3/9) ______198 _ 150 __75 __ 423 __ 89 __206 __202 __497___ 920 __192 _ 180 _ 174 __546____1466 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______3 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Sep Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 61 locations out of 81 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September. Of those, 32 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 29 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 __ 14-2 RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 9-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 8-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 7-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 4-0 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 2-0 __________________________________