Roger Smith

You can just sense that the NAM is about to go back into bomb mode for its 00z last chance forecast. If the Euro found that much to improve, the NAM can probably find a 950 mb low stalled for five days off Montauk.

30-40 was in the casket, the minister was saying what a great fellow he had been, and how we would all miss him, and a voice came from within the casket ...

It took a brave soul to write that outlook, even as harsh a snow-fanatic as myself would likely have gone with a more subdued tone after seeing all this meh guidance. Still, it could be like the 1970s and the outcome is nothing like the guidance at all. Sometimes the crudeness of the early generation models is overstated, they weren't that bad, but I do remember one or two cases where reality was quite a surprise compared to any 12-24 hour model output, for example, Jan 26 1978. If that happens here, basically 30-40 years of technological development will mean butkus. My toned down prediction would be 12-24 inches east of a CON-ORH-PVD-ACK 12" contour, max near Taunton MA. Maybe 15" in parts of se CT and LI here and there. Probably about 7" on average in w CT to central MA. Hoping reality gives me a kick in the butkus.

In the Navy there's a blizzard for you all, in the navy there's snow back to Montreal, in the navy, it's like 1982 in the navy, everyone is wearing blue.

BINGO !!! It was kicker near MKE that finished it for me.

Sure, in PEI snow fans are delirious.

What happened to the NAM I married? That NAM was a good provider and always looked sharp. But you, and your whole 12z family, I just can't see a future for us.

Also they have to show the output to the Queen so that takes time, she's fussy about isobars and such.

That wasn't the NAM I married. Now the 06z NAM, wherever that alternate universe is located, they are in for it.

Well either NAM off its meds, or GFS unable to cope with bipolar disorder? That would not be all that big a deal for many places apart from se MA. I don't pretend to know which of these is closer to reality, RGEM suggests GFS is but maybe Euro will have other ideas. Hope they reach a consensus before the storm actually begins.

I keep having to remind myself that we don't know which model (as of its last attempt or any earlier one) is going to prove most accurate, as there is almost no development yet 24-30 hours before a major storm is supposed to be raging and developing somewhere east of the Mid-Atlantic. If this NAM run proves to be the best solution up to let's say the 12z model suite, then nobody must ever speak an ill word of the NAM ever again. until you know, the inevitable happens ...

That was one for sure in 1978, the Great Lakes windstorm of Nov 9 1913 probably another. I don't know if this qualifies technically or not, will look into it. It is not a whole lot different from the Blizzard of 1888 in terms of track and intensity. I think that one got blocked more when it reached the Cape though. This also reminds me of "White Juan" which hit eastern Canada after the summer when Juan hit NS, which I think was 2002 so that would be around Jan 2003. I think that storm missed most of NE and came in from the s.s.w. crossing NS and PEI, 30-40 inch snowfalls and extreme drifting resulted.

That is a superstorm whether it happens or not, it's certainly the way things have been trending all day and night, but confidence in it remains sketchy until at least one of the other models duplicates it. Much further west at initiation, and deepens continuously from east of Hatteras to near Nantucket where it reaches 957 mb with a very tight circulation. Verbatim would probably give much of the Delmarva 15-25 inches, most of NJ 20-30 inches, NYC 18-24, LI 20-30 with monster drifts, CT 20-35 and parts of MA 30-40. Puts BAL in the maybe zone for marginal blizzard and 5-8 inches, DC maybe 2-4? But it's all speculation until we see the goods.

Over your house in more ways than one, right?

That is a superstorm and would have extreme impacts. I guess verbatim it would be 70-90 mph northerly winds across Long Island Sound across Long Island and snowfall amounts might not really matter that much as 15" or 30" would drift like crazy. NYC likely to verify the earlier 18-24" idea with some parts of the metro exposed to stronger outflow winds, otherwise at least 50-60 mph. Most of CT would likely see 30" of snow from this sort of track. I think it actually stays a bit east of RI and crosses the cape, but anyway, it means nothing until either the rest of models follow suit or it happens anyway. Don't forget it is not a guarantee just a strong suggestion. I was always expecting this sort of end game though.

That is pretty much the equal of the Cleveland superbomb of Jan 26 1978 in terms of continuous deepening and considerable brief rotation of surface features. I was actually in a weather office that day in Ontario and plotted up a map with a 955 mb center. The rotation was so strong that cold south winds were creating squalls on the north shore of Lake Erie and winds there were gusting to 100 mph. Of course that's on the ocean side of this storm but the west side would be like the Ohio-Indiana-Michigan blizzard side. That's all I can really compare this to, other than maybe extratropical Irene hitting Ireland in 2017. Question is, real or imaginary? On to the GFS to see what Sleepy has to say about it.

This is a real day after tomorrow solution. It is the NAM so maybe there is hope for the survival of the species.

NAM 06z is creating a superstorm that will obliterate much of New England and Long Island. What else can you say? Looks to be rotating enough to bring icing to the Maine coast but have to think that S+ will prevail any distance inland. Extreme circulation depicted at 36h near 40N 69W -- it's probably heading for a graze past the cape at 955 mbs.

I think I'm a bit too far west.

Can't wait for the 945 mb low on the 06z NAM, and its three victory laps around the Gulf of Maine.

That's why I'm here too.

I always thought it meant Let's Buy Sex Widgets and the upside is, I have a lot of those.

Well you know I would predict snow if I thought it was coming, but at this point, 1-3" DCA, 3-5" BWI, 8-12" Delmarva and parts of se VA is all I can find. Storm of the century material for LI and New England though. Could be some nasty wind chill values there by late Saturday evening.

That looks like a walrus getting fed at the zoo.

I wonder if those two camps of lows (south of LI and east of Cape Cod) might represent the same complex low with a western tucked center and an eastern secondary where the triple point is at that time? But I guess it's more likely to represent two different tracks for one low (or most of them do, some could be explained by my first idea, or even by different timing scenarios). After what happened in 2016 I am very reluctant to say this misses NYC or almost misses.