Roger Smith

I am not quite as pessimistic as some ... BWI: 23.5" DCA: 18.2" IAD: 26.6" RIC: 14.8" Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): LYH 18.9"

I would not give up hope for this winter. For one thing, warm Octobers have often been followed by productive winters in the northeast so that can't hurt the chances for the Mid-Atlantic. Don't know how your region did with the epic Dec 26th 1947 (NYC region) storm but that followed the warmest October on record. Octobers of 1963 and 1971 were high on the list also, and had at least reasonable winters with spells of mild and cold and one decent snowfall event (again this is for the northeast, I don't have your historical records at hand). And on the other hand cold Octobers have often been followed by unproductive winters. This of course is only analogue forecasting without reference to teleconnections or other more sophisticated indices. Some of the years that have looked rather similar to 2021 (albeit in cooler climate decades) include 1898 which had a famously cold and snowy winter following on. 1916 had a cold winter (1916-17), not sure as to snowfall with that. Also would point out that recent storms are showing tendencies to do things that we can say would be good for snow potential if they did similar things in the heart of the winter season. Overall I am going to make a fairly moderate prediction (in the snowfall contest) but I do think there is potential for this to turn out better than some are fearing. Totals around 15-25 inches may be attainable. It won't likely be a top ten sort of winter but there may be one memorable cold spell and snowstorm associated.

Tie breaker now 3.01" ... congrats peribonca, George BM, toolsheds.

The NHC continue to suggest that this storm now northeast of Bermuda heading southeast may become Subtropical Storm Wanda in a few days. So for a name it could be Wanda in the Womb, or maybe Backwards Bob. Perhaps re-analysis will establish that it was already TS Wanda in its earlier rampage, and as somebody mentioned, it was very close to cat-1 hurricane intensity over the Cape. The perfect storm of 1991 is now referenced as an "un-named hurricane."

83 mph gusts in that list for Wellfleet, near the band (and 2h ago now), also since I checked, 88 mph Vineyard Haven.

Radar showing some rather extreme looking thunderstorms approaching Cape Cod from ENE. Perhaps wxw007 can let us know what happens there although the echoes are somewhat north of where I think his position is. Had a look at peak wind gusts reported, 87 mph Scituate was the highest I noted, several others in low 80s. (mph)

The low center will apparently pass between the Nantucket buoy and the island because at the buoy, winds are backing from north to northwest as it approaches. At the harbor, steady NNE. Would look for the low to be a few miles south of ACK by 04-05z. Winds will continue to increase until at least then.

Estimate 978 mb and position around 41N 68W approx 100 nm east of ACK. Will pass over or very close to buoy 44008 in about 3-4 hours. Currently about 985 mb there and strong NNE wind steady in the 30-50 knot range. The buoy that it was near a few hours ago has only slowly rising pressure telling us that the center is deepening as it pulls away to the west of that location. Unfortunately no other buoys much closer than these two.

Today's rainfall at NYC would already be a record for the 27th or 28th but has to get past 3.40" by midnight to beat 1943 for today's crown. If it does that, I believe that will be seven daily records for the year. 1983 had nine and 1913 had eight. The record for the 27th is much lower, only 1.88" from 2003. I suppose it's possible both records could go and then the year would be in that second place tie with 1913.

A recent check of reports from buoy 44011 (Georges Bank) and satellite animation suggests that retrograde center has formed around 40 nm southwest of that location or around 40.8 N 67.5 W and until last few obs the winds were gusting to 65-70 mph at that buoy, slight decrease past half hour and pressure check-rise probably means that strongest winds are now heading west. From both GFS and RGEM the track of this feature looks to be just to the south of ACK around 04-06z. Strongest winds to coast probably 03-05z, my guess peak winds at BOS around 65 mph, land areas of s.e. MA 75-80 mph. Will gradually back off to 45-55 and stay in that range for most of the overnight. U probly knew that but just putting it up as a thought.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for these nine locations ... ____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline 06z Monday Nov 1st or late Sunday evening or very early Monday (2 a.m. EDT) ... may do the snowfall contest with the DEC contest this year. Good luck !

Final scoring for October 2021 Scoring is based on the most recent provisional end of month anomalies posted in the previous post. For now, the scoring is posted in the same order as the forecast table. This makes updates a bit faster. Asterisks refer to one or two point deductions for late penalties. (* one point deduction, ** two point deduction). ^ _ The top raw scores for DCA were 59 and 58, these were boosted by one to satisfy the max 60 rule, all other raw scores were higher than minimum progression levels. PHX (max raw score 56) also required the "max 60" scoring but it made only slight differences to all scores, as most stayed at or near the raw scores anyway. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _ c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL RJay __________ (-1%) ___ 59^* 87*_72*__218 ___ 92*_93*_79*__264__482 __87*_34*^_53*__ 174 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 51 _ 78 _ 55 __ 184 ___ 97 _ 98 _ 72 __267 __451 __ 64 _ 55^_ 68 __ 187 ___ 638 Tom ____________________ 60^_ 90 _ 69 __219 ___77 _ 92 _ 64 __233 __452 __ 22 _ 24 _ 96 __ 142 ___ 594 RodneyS ________________39 _ 80 _ 55 __ 174 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 62 __199 __373 __ 72 _ 60^_ 68 __ 200 ___ 573 Deformation Zone ______ 35 _ 68 _ 79 __ 182 ___ 63 _ 80 _ 50 __ 193 __375 __ 34 _ 50^_ 90 __ 174 ___ 549 ___ Consensus __________ 37 _ 62 _ 51 __ 150 ___ 55 _ 82 _ 64 __ 201 __351 __ 70 _ 35^_ 66 __ 171 ___ 522 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%)__ 38*_ 59*_46*__143 ___ 30*_ 82**_76**_188__331 __ 59*_45*_ 65* _169 ___ 500 wxallannj _______________ 31 _ 58 _ 27 __ 116 ___ 53 _ 90 _ 60 __ 203 __319 __ 88 _ 08 _ 84 __ 180 ___ 499 so_whats_happening ___ 46 _ 52 _ 23 __ 121 ___ 57 _ 70 _ 60 __ 187 __ 308 __ 72 _ 40 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 496 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____32*_ 53*_ 36*__121 ___ 44*_78**_63*_ 185 __306 __ 74**34*^_53*__161___ 467 Roger Smith ____________ 35 _ 64 _ 53 __ 152 ___ 43 _ 54 _ 44 __ 141 __293 __ 86 _ 14 _ 52 __ 152 ___ 445 Scotty Lightning ________ 15 _ 38 _ 19 __ 072 ___ 05 _ 70 _ 70 __ 145 __ 217 __ 54 _35^_ 50 __ 139 ___ 356 ___ Normal ______________00 _ 18 _ 00 ___018 __ 00 _ 50 _ 40 __ 090 __ 108 ___ 44 _ 48 _ 60 __ 152 ___ 260 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) ____ 05^_ 08 _ 00 __ 013 __ 00 _ 57*_ 49*__ 106 __119 ___ 65*_16 _ 55*__ 136 ___ 255 _____________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a win for highest forecast (without penalty) Tom (+3.4). "No decision" for RJay (+3.4, one point penalty). _ NYC (+4.1) is a win for Tom (+3.6) with highest forecast. _ BOS (+5.1) is a win for Deformation Zone (+4.0). _ ORD (+5.7) is a win for highest forecast Don Sutherland at +6.0. _ ATL (+2.5) finished closest to third warmest forecast so does not qualify. _ IAH (+3.0) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with highest forecast. _ DEN (+2.8) is a loss for Roger Smith (+3.5) and a win for wxallannj at +2.2. _ PHX (-2.6) is a win for coldest forecast of RodneyS (-0.4). _ SEA (-2.0) is a win for Tom at -1.8 and a loss for DZ at -2.5. Overall results: eight forecasts qualify, six for warmest and two for coldest forecasts.

October anomalies so far and projections ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 13th ___ (12d anom) ____ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ +5.0e__+11.5 _+4.9 _+2.7 __+4.1 _ -3.2 _ -5.4 23rd ___ (22d anom) ___ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +6.6 __ +8.0 _ +3.8 _ +2.6 __+1.8 _-3.8 _ -2.4 13th __ (p20d anom) ____ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ +7.5 _+3.5 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 13th __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __+4.0 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 23rd __ (p31d anom) ____ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 __+2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 30th __ (adjusted) _______+4.5 _ +3.5 _ +4.5 __ +5.5 _+3.0 _+3.0 __+3.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 Final anomalies __________+5.5 _ +4.1 _ +5.1 __ +5.7 _+2.5 _+3.0 __+2.8 _-2.6 _-2.0 _______________________________________________ 13th _ A generally warm start except in the west which has been quite cold. BOS est from +4.4 11th and +10 departure on 12th ... forecast to 20th based on somewhat reduced warmth in most areas and a slight rebound for the west to near normal values, then the projection to end of the month (GFS run ends 29th) is based on similar trends with the introduction of more variable and sometimes quite cold weather in the plains states reaching the Midwest at least. This will bring the anomalies for ORD back into the range of our forecasts hopefully. 30th _ Have updated the monthly anomaly projections in a two cases (IAH, DEN), the rest are not looking too far off and can be adjusted at final scoring stage. This will allow for a reliable preview of the actual order of scoring for the month. I am hoping PHX warms up a bit more than shown so that I won't need to use max 60 scoring there (for -2.5 the highest score was 58). 31st-1st _ Posting final anomalies overnight and adjusting scoring.

The warmest October on record in most parts of the northeastern US was either 1947 or 1963, both come out very close to tied in many cases. Epic snowstorms followed these warm Octobers (Dec 26, 1947 and Jan 1964). Another very warm October was 1971, and Feb 1972 was quite a wintry month. So this autumn warmth is not necessarily a bad sign for the coming winter. Cold Octobers have often been followed by rather bland winters. I posted elsewhere that I think this might be a pretty good winter in the northeastern US. The bar is rather low after the last few, of course, although NYC has managed to wring out some decent totals when DCA and BOS failed to do so. It has been unusually cold here in the western interior regions since a warm spell in late September ended. SEA has an anomaly of -4 F to this point, and where I live we have seen snow twice already, and had a sharp frost on two occasions. Hopefully this will be a cold trough that does not anchor itself here but shows some progressive tendencies. I think that report on mild temperatures in the central arctic has to be a good indicator too. That is usually correlated with cold in the western arctic moving southeast around an upper low that needs to form near northern Hudson Bay to get the mild air into that region (it seldom comes from the south or southwest, usually from the east up that way from the open waters of Baffin Bay).

Using a technique of weighted analogues by natural variability factors, I have determined the following prospects for the winter of 2021-2022 in North America. Cold may play a significant role compared to some recent winters. Severe cold is likely to show up fairly often in central regions and will sometimes spread into the northeastern US and mid-Atlantic states, even the southeast a few times. A coastal storm track may develop and snowfall could be generous compared to recent winters in the larger urban areas of the eastern U.S. Mid-January to early March is favored for the best winter synoptics in the east but December is not ruled out either. Following a sustained warmth this month lasting well into November, would look for a highly variable pattern to develop by late November and some cold outbreaks in December mixed with much milder spells. This could yield some cold spells of a few days' duration and possibly one significant snow event. A milder spell seems likely around Christmas to New Years and into the first ten days of January, followed by a series of colder outbreaks some of which could be quite severe. This will set up a better than average east coast snowfall potential. One of several years that showed up in the analogue set was 1898 (into 1899) which featured an epic arctic outbreak in mid-February. But in general, the index values tend to show equal chances of severe cold in late January and early to mid February, so perhaps one good spell in each month. The March index values tend to show a sharp reversal from severe cold at first to record warmth later. Anyway, I for one do not expect this winter to be as frustrating an experience as the last few have been for east coast snowfall fans, and the Midwest and Great Lakes could have quite a severe winter. Expecting the inland west to be quite variable with a persistent mild signal for the Pac NW and coastal BC into the western prairies due to frequent chinook activity, as the main track for severe cold will be through eastern SK and MB into the Dakotas and Minnesota.

September 2021 summary: Toronto mean 18.4 C (t-22 warmest of 182 yrs with 1985) adjusted to u.h.i. 17.3 C (t-27 warmest of 182 yrs with 1846, 1920, 1985) _ _ note was t-21 warmest (raw) and t-26 warmest in the overlapping period, 1865 was the one year warmer in either case before NYC began obs. rainfall 138.6 mm (16th wettest of 182) one new daily rainfall record (22nd _ 49.9 mm) _ narrowly edged out the rainfall from Hugo's tropical storm rainfall from 1989 (47.3 mm). no daily temperature records --------------------- NYC mean 21.28 C (70.3 F) was t-26 warmest of 153 yrs with 1898, 1945, 1948, and 2007). NYC adjusted to u.h.i. 20.18 C (68.3 F) (t-41 yrs warmest of 153 yrs with 2007). rainfall 10.03" (6th wettest of 153) 7.13" rainfall 1st new daily record no daily temperature records --------------------- Overall, a quite warm and very wet month although after the 7.13" fell on the 1st at NYC the rest of the month had about the normal September rainfall amount 2nd-30th.

Table of forecasts for October 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias Tom ____________________ +3.2 _+3.6 _+3.5 __ +4.2 _+2.9 _+1.2 ___ -1.1 _ +1.2 _ -1.8 ____ +0.23 RJay __________ (-1%) ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.7 __ +5.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 ___+2.2 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ +0.99 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.8 _+3.0 _+2.8 __ +6.0 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___ +1.0 _-0.1 _-0.4 ____ +0.48 so_whats_happening ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +3.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.4 _+0.4 _-0.8 ____ -0.36 RodneyS ________________ +2.2 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ +1.4 _-0.4 _-0.4 ____ -0.03 hudsonvalley21 _ (-2%) __+2.2 _+2.1 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+1.7 _+1.9 ____+0.8 _+0.1 _-0.3 ____ -0.22 ___ Consensus __________ +2.1 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ____ +1.3 _+1.0 _-0.3 Deformation Zone ______ +2.0 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _-2.5 ____ -0.42 Roger Smith _____________+2.0 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ +2.5 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+3.5 _+1.7 _+0.4 ____ +0.08 BKViking _____ (-2%) ____ +1.9 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +2.6 _+1.5 _+1.2 ____ +1.6 _+1.0 _+0.3 ____ -0.11 wxallannj ________________+1.8 _+2.0 _+1.4 __ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.2 _+2.0 _-1.2 ____ -0.07 Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ -0.76 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ -1.64 wxdude64 ___ (-2%) _____ -0.7 _-0.5 _-0.3 ___-0.8 _+0.4 _+0.5 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+0.2 ____ -1.48 _____________________________________________________ Color codes show the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for ATL, IAH. Bias reveals the average departure of each forecaster (and Normal) from the consensus.

Suspect it will be warm and then mild/wet like 1963, first frosts could be quite late. DCA _ Dec 4 IAD _ Nov 25 BWI _ Nov 25 RIC _ Dec 4 max 24h rain BWI 2.04"

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Sep) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up two relative to forecasters. Normal remained in its previous position. Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 656 _680 _447 _ 1783 __541 _690 _624 _1855__3638 __402 _628 _602 _ 1632___ 5270 BKViking (up 1) _______________ 653 _705 _479 _ 1837 __427 _655 _603 _ 1685__3522 __481 _597 _621 _ 1699___ 5221 RodneyS (up 2) _______________ 614 _652 _460 _ 1726 __456 _674 _550 _ 1680__3406 __494 _634 _630 _1758___ 5164 ___ Consensus (up 2) ________ 678 _700 _455 _ 1833 __419 _624 _588 _ 1631__3464 __476 _568 _602 _ 1646___ 5110 wxallannj (down 2) ___________ 612 _652 _442 _ 1706 __398 _580 _604 _ 1582__3288 __590 _561 _642 _1793___ 5081 Tom (up 1) ____________________ 658 _707 _492 _ 1857__370 _557 _620 _ 1547__3404 __520 _577 _562 _ 1659___ 5063 wxdude64 (down 2) __________ 669 _637 _475 _ 1781 __398 _628 _595 _ 1621__3402 __515 _569 _569 _ 1653___ 5055 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 654 _672 _476 _ 1802 __396 _636 _560 _ 1592__3394__430 _563 _656 _ 1649___ 5043 Scotty Lightning ______________ 660 _662 _429 _ 1751 __356 _564 _538 _ 1458__3209 __496 _542 _626 _ 1664___ 4873 ___ Normal ____________________ 652 _598 _344 _ 1594 __286 _640 _630 _ 1556 __3150 __486 _596 _618 _ 1700___ 4850 so_whats_happening _________ 697 _ 663 _366 _ 1726 __425 _662 _503 _ 1590 __3316 __398 _558 _551 _ 1507___ 4823 RJay __________________________ 596 _620 _484 _ 1700 __440 _586 _538 _ 1564 __3264 __446 _477 _496 _ 1419___ 4683 Roger Smith ___________________584 _502 _235 _ 1321 __ 417 _538 _642 _ 1597 __2918 __416 _525 _604 _ 1545___ 4463 Deformation Zone _ (3/9) ______198 _ 150 __75 __ 423 __ 89 __206 __202 __497___ 920 __192 _ 180 _ 174 __546____1466 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______3 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Sep Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 61 locations out of 81 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September. Of those, 32 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 29 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 __ 14-2 RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 9-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 8-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 7-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 4-0 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 2-0 __________________________________

+2.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.4

Posting a general reminder to NYC forum members that temperature forecast contest deadline is approaching.

Final scoring for September 2021 _ scoring is based on final anomalies in previous post. _ BOS currently scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (most scores are boosted). The highest raw scores were 44. _ ORD scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (all scores are boosted at least slightly). The highest raw score was only 38. _ scoring remains in forecast table order until final. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RJay _____________________96 _ 88 _ 50^__ 234 __ 50^_ 80 _ 60 __ 190 __ 424 ___50 _ 90 _ 66 __ 206____ 630 DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 88 _ 35^__ 215 ___60^_80 _ 88 __ 228 __ 443 __ 26 _ 94 _ 66 __ 186 ____ 629 BKViking ________________ 96 _ 96 _ 40^__ 232 __ 35^_ 74 _ 74 __ 183 __ 415 __ 44 _ 96 _ 70 __ 210 ____ 625 RodneyS _________________64 _ 76 _ 60^__ 200 __ 55^_ 78 _ 68 __ 201 __ 401 __ 46 _ 82 _ 74 __ 202 ____ 603 hudsonvalley21 __________94 _ 92 _ 25^__ 211 ___ 35^_ 46 _ 70 __ 151 __ 362 __ 40 _ 92 _ 84 __ 216 ____ 578 ___ Consensus ___________90 _ 88 _ 33^__ 211 __ 35^_ 76 _ 68 __ 179 __ 390 __ 40 _ 80 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 578 Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 98 _ 50^__ 244 __ 50^_ 50 _ 50 __ 150 __ 394 __ 40 _ 70 _ 66 __ 176____ 570 so_whats_happening ____ 96 _100_60^__256 __ 25^_ 64 _ 60 __ 149 __ 405 __ 36 _ 76 _ 52 __ 164 ____ 569 Tom ______________________88 _ 88 _ 30^__ 206 __ 40^_ 62 _ 74 __ 176 ___382 __30 _ 82 _ 70 __ 182 ____ 564 ___ Normal _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 18 __ 180 __ 18 _ 80 _ 80 __ 178 __ 358 __ 20_100 _ 86 __206 ____ 564 Roger Smith _____________ 70 _ 62 _ 10^__ 142 __ 20^_100 _100__ 220__362 __ 20 _ 80 _ 92 __192 ____ 554 wxallannj _________________84 _ 72 _ 15^__ 171 __ 10^_ 60 _ 50 __ 120 __ 291 __ 64 _ 50 _ 78 __ 192 ____ 483 wxdude64 _______________ 56 _ 52 _ 22 __ 130 __ 15^_ 92 _ 96 __ 203 __ 333 __ 16 _ 78 _ 42 __136 ____469 Deformation Zone _______ 60 _ 38 _ 05^__ 103 __ 05^_ 80 _ 60__ 145 __ 248 __ 70_ 60 _ 36 __ 166 ____ 414 ________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT _ DCA is a shared win for four forecasts, see table for details. _ NYC is a win for so_whats_happening with warmest forecast (+1.1 equal to outcome). _ BOS a win for so_whats_happening and RodneyS (warmest forecasts) _ ORD is a win for DonSutherland1 (warmest forecast) _ ATL, IAH, SEA wins for Roger Smith (coldest forecasts). _ DEN is a win for Deformation Zone (warmest forecast) _ PHX currently expected to finish close to consensus, will not qualify. __________________________________________

The max of only 96 at RIC must rank in their top ten all-time lowest values, anyone know what their lowest max on record is? I know that NYC is 90 for that statistic.

Now for the same analysis of lowest mean minimum weekly averages ... as you might expect, the frequency of them slowly decreases through the period of record. There are even so a few relatively recent cases where a cold regime overcame the disadvantage of the much larger urban heat island that exists now relative to the late 19th century. TABLE 2: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED LOW MINIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way ties entered as 0.33) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * if they extend into next year (end Jan 1-3), and ** if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6). As these cannot be directly read from the totals, the actuals are posted in the relevant decade which is 1910-19 since all six are in the winter of 1917-18 (so three count for each of those years). Only the colder of the two subsets ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) ________________________________________________________________________J_F_M_ A_M_J_ J_A_S_ O_N_D decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 8 _____8.0 ____0_ 0_ 0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 6_2_0 1870s ________ 0__6.33_10.5_3.5__18 _ 21 __ 7 __ 0 __ 7 __ 4 ___77.33 __ 0_2_4.5_20_11.5_2_ 2.33_0_10_ 7_8_10 1880s ________11 __ 5 __ 1 _13.5__ 1 __11 __11.5 _4 __20 __ 3 ____81.0 ___ 6.5_3_19 _3_2_0_ 9_10.5_8_ 6_12_2 1890s _________3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 6 _ 2.5__2.5_ 3.5 _0 __ 0 __ 3 ____21.5 ___ 3_7.5_0_ 0_0.5_2_ 7_0.5_0_ 1_0_0 1900s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 _____10.0 ___ 1_0_3_ 0_ 4_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 1910s _________0 __ 0 __ 6.5 _2 _ 4.5__ 1 __ 1 __ 12*_10.5**_3 ____41.5 ___9.5_4_1_ 0_2_5.5_ 0_5_6_ 0_0_8.5 _1917-18* (3) 1917-18** (3) 1920s _______5.33 _ 0 __ 0 _ 5.5 _ 2 __ 2 __6.5 _0 __ 0 __ 1 _____22.33 __ 0_0_1_ 4_0_2.5_ 6.33_2_0.5_ 0_2_4 1930s _________3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 5 __6.5 _ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____18.5 ___2_6_2_ 0_1_2_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 4_0.5 1940s ________12 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 ____ 27.0 ____0_0_0_ 0_0_7_ 2_ 5_ 3_ 7_ 0_ 3 1950s _________0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 7.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_ 0_5_ 0 _1 _1_ 0_ 0_ 0 1960s _________0.5 _0 __ 0 __1.83 _ 6__ 1 __ 0 __ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____15.33 ___ 5_0_0.5_0_ 1_ 0_ 1.33_4.5_1_ 2_0_0 1970s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _ 0.5 __0.5 _0 __ 0 __8.5 ___ 9.5 ____ 0 _4_0_ 0_ 0.5_0_ 3_1.5_0.5_ 0_0_0 1980s _________2 __ 0 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 _____9.0 ____ 0_0_0_ 3_ 0_ 2_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0_0_3 1990s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 4.0 ____ 4_0_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_0_0 2000s _________0 __ 0 __3.5__0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 4.5 ____ 0_0_0_ 0_3.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 1_ 0_ 0 2010s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2.5 _0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.5 ____0_2.5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 2_ 0 2020s _________5 __ 0 _ (0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ____ 5.0 _____0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 5_0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0_ 0 ______________^2020 2021 __ (future years of 2022-29) ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals coldest on record: 1875_ 21 ... 1888_20 ... 1874_18 ... 1883_ 13.5 ... 1917, 1940_ 12.0 ... 1886_11.5 ... 1880,1885_11.0 ... 1872, 1918_ 10.5 ... These eleven years account for about 5/12 of the total in the calendar year. Since 1940, the highest annual count is 8.5 in 1979. Since then the highest count was 5.0 in 2020 (all in May). There were no coldest average minima in any weekly interval from January 1994 to May 2002 or from April 1982 to Aug 1989. There was only one between May 2002 and Feb 2015 (in Oct 2009). The 1950s were also rather void of record low temperatures. But it can also be noted that 1908, 1909, 1910 and 1911 scored zero. Recent years show that it is possible to break sustained cold records, but the cold needs to arrive with significant wind velocity to negate the bulk of the urban heat island now present. This is why (in addition to climate change) the frequency of low count years dropped significantly after about 1910 even if averages stayed rather high due to some severely cold episodes (almost all of the records shown for 1917 and 1918 were in a three-week interval in mid to late December 1917 and early January 1918. _ The frequency of low maxima has stayed slightly higher in recent years as the urban effect is smaller in the daytime hours. Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _11 _______ 17 _______ 1874 Apr 22 - May 8 (Apr 22-28 to May 2-8 intervals) _10 _______ 16 _______ 1875 Apr 12-27 (Apr 12-18 to Apr 21-27 intervals) _ 9 _______ 15 _______ 1880 Nov 16-30 (Nov 16-22 to Nov 24-30 intervals) _ much colder than second coldest at times (up to 10 F deg) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1869 Oct 20 - Nov 2 (Oct 20-26 to Oct 27 - Nov 2 intervals) _ 8 _______ 14 _______ 1917-18 Dec 25 - Jan 7 (Dec 25-31 to Jan 1-7 intervals) _ coldest average Dec 29 - Jan 4 (-4.43 F) _ 7 _______ 13 _______ 1883 Aug 31 - Sep 12 (Aug 31 - Sep 6 to Sep 6-12 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 Jan 18-29 (Jan 18-24 to Jan 23-29 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1888 July 8-19 (July 8-14 to July 13-19 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) __ 12 _______ 1917 Dec 7 - 18 (Dec 7-13 to Dec 12-18 intervals) _ first int tied with 1934 _ 6 (5.33)_ 12 _______ 1920 July 22 - Aug 2 (July 22-28 to July 27 - Aug 2 intervals) _ first int is tied three ways with 1871, 1963 _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1945 May 30 to June 10 (May 30 - June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 _______ 12 _______ 1947 Sep 22 to Oct 3 (Sep 22-28 to Sep 27 - Oct 3 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) __ 11 _______ 1872 Feb 29 - Mar 10 (Feb 29-Mar 6 to Mar 4-10 intervals) _ Mar 4-10 tied with 1883 _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1874 Apr 7-17 (Apr 7-13 to Apr 11-17 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Sep 17-27 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 21-27 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1875 Nov 26 - Dec 6 (Nov 26 - Dec 2 to Nov 30 - Dec 6 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1876 Oct 9-19 (Oct 9-15 to Oct 13-19 intervals) _ extends to 7/13 days (see one interruption notes) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1886 Aug 15-25 (Aug 15-21 to Aug 19-25 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1923 Mar 25 - Apr 4 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 29-Apr 4 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1940 Aug 20-30 (Aug 20-26 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 2020 May 5-15 (May 5-11 to May 9-15 intervals) _ cold enough to set benchmark values (see below) _ 5 _______ 11 _______ 1968 Jan 4-14 (Jan 4-10 to Jan 8-14 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 ______ 1872 Dec 21-30 (Dec 21-27 to Dec 24-30 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1879 Oct 30 - Nov 8 (Oct 30 - Nov 5 to Nov 2-8 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1893 June 23 to July 2 (June 23-29 to June 26-July 2 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) _ 10 _______ 1918 June 17-26 (June 17-23 to June 20-26 intervals) _ first interval tied by 1926 _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1926 Dec 1-10 (Dec 1-7 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1935 Jan 24 - Feb 2 (Jan 24-30 to Jan 27 - Feb 2 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1940 Oct 15-24 (Oct 15-21 to Oct 18-24 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1951 June 9-18 (June 9-15 to June 12-18 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1979 Feb 10-19 (Feb 10-16 to Feb 13-19 intervals) _ 4 _______ 10 _______ 1994 Jan 14-23 (Jan 14-20 to Jan 17-23 intervals) _ 4 (3.5) __ 10 _______ 2002 May 16-25 (May 16-22 to May 19-25 intervals) _ last interval tied 1976 (_3 ________ 9 _______ 1934) Feb 4-12 (Feb 4-10 to 6-12 intervals) _ added despite falling short of 4/10 because very close to extending at either end, and extreme cold. ... the spell that followed in the calendar year (3 intervals 1899 ending Feb 13-15) was similar and lost out narrowly at either end. Another similar 1934 cold spell of three consecutive intervals was for Feb 22-28 to Feb 24-Mar 2. Also a spell in April 1881 (three intervals ending Apr 7-9) was just marginally prevented from taking a fourth ending Apr 6. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 7 ________ 13 ________ 1876 Oct 7 to 19 (see table above for five consecutive intervals ending Oct 19, before those, Oct 7-13, then (( _ )) Oct 8-14 (1875). _ 6 ________ 12 ________ 1918 June 17 to 28 (see table above for four consecutive intervals ending June 26 then (( _ )) June 22-28 _ interrupted by 1940 June 21-27. _ 5 ________ 11 ________ 1907 May 20-30 (May 20-26, (( _ )) May 22-28, May 23-29, May 24-30) _ interrupted by 1967 May 21-27 ... this can also be considered longer see below (interrupted by two intervals from another year but when urban heat island effect considered, both are probably a fairly robust cold spell of more recent times) _ 6 _________ 12 _______ 1964 Aug 9 - 20 (Aug 9-15, Aug 10-16 (( _ _ )) Aug 13-19, Aug 14-20 ... 1963t79 and 1979 interrupted Aug 11-17 and Aug 12-18. _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2015 Feb 14-24 (Feb 14-20, 15-21, (( _ _ )) Feb 18-24 ... 1896 interrupted Feb 16-22, 17-23 and also tied 2015 for 15-21 (two interruptions, but stayed almost as cold as those intervening values, extends the entry above for 1907) _ 9 _________ 15 _______ 1907 May 20 - June 3 ( after May 24-30 (see above) two interruptions by 1930 then two more 1907 intervals ending June 2, 3). _______________________________________________ The total duration of the identified longer cold spells is 183 days plus about 10 from the extensions listed and another 12 from four robust three-day intervals with deep winter cold. That adds up to 205 days, slightly more than the warm analogue, although probably very similar since this one was extended a bit more freely. The "modal" very cold spell is probably also around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-22 days seems to be an upper limit. This can be compared to the modal result for warm spells ... rather similar but capable of extending slightly longer by looks of the frequency analysis. It is unusual to see any cold spells giving way quickly to warmth or vice versa. One example was cold in late September 1947 quickly followed by record warmth in most of October. The spring of 1945 had a longer cycle but very warm weather in March-April gave way to very cold weather in May-June. Cold overnight weekly averages that can set records are rare in recent decades, only 25 of the 85 years 1936-2020 had any entries, accounting for a total of about 86 of the 366 coldest weeks (an average of one per year). The average for the 67 years ending 1935 was closer to four per year. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average minima (lowest so late in season from arbitrary start of January 4 minimum value, reverses at summer's highest average minimum weekly average and from that point, second column shows the first occurrences of benchmark values ending with the lowest value again for Dec 29 to Jan 4 Average ____Weekly interval ______ Year ____________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year -4.86 _______Dec 29- Jan 4 _____ 1917-1918 _________ (62.00) ____ July 27-Aug 2 ________ 1920 (highest value, reversal point) -1.43 _______ Dec 30- Jan 5 _____ 1917-1918 __________ 59.00 _____ July 31 - Aug 6 ______ 1912 3.00 ________Feb 8 - 14 ___________1899 ______________ 58.86 _____ Aug 1 - 7 _____________ 1912 4.00 _______ Feb 9 - 15 ___________ 1899 ______________ 58.00 _____ Aug 2 - 8 ____________ 1886 6.29 _______ Feb 12-18 ____________1979 ______________ 57.86 ______ Aug 16-22 ___________ 1886 6.43 _______ Feb 16-22 ___________ 1896 ______________ 57.14 ______ Aug 17-23 ___________ 1886 9.43 _______ Feb 17-23 ___________ 1896 ______________ 56.43 _____ Aug 18-24 ___________ 1886 9.71 ________ Feb 20-26 __________ 1914 ______________ 55.86 ______ Aug 21-27 ___________ 1940 10.86 _______ Feb 23- Mar 1 ______ 1934 ______________ 55.71 _______ Aug 23-29 __________ 1940 11.14 ________ Feb 28- Mar 5 ______ 1884 ______________ 55.14 ______ Aug 25-31 ___________ 1887 11.71 ________ Mar 1 - 7 ____________ 1872 ______________ 55.00 ______ Aug 29 - Sep 4 ______ 1872 11.86 ________ Mar 17-23 __________ 1885 ______________ 54.57 ______ Aug 30 - Sep 5 ______ 1872 13.00 _______ Mar 18-24 __________ 1885 _______________ 54.43 _____ Aug 31 - Sep 6 _______ 1883 16.00 _______ Mar 19-25 __________ 1885 _______________ 53.43 ______ Sep 1 - 7 ____________ 1883 17.86 _______ Mar 20-26 ___________1885 _______________ 53.00 ______ Sep 2 - 8 ____________ 1883 19.43 _______ Mar 27 - Apr 2 ______ 1923 _______________51.14 _______ Sep 3 - 9 ____________ 1883 20.71 _______ Mar 28 - Apr 3 ______ 1923 _______________49.71 _______ Sep 4-10 ____________ 1883 25.57 _______ Mar 29 - Apr 4 ______ 1923 _______________48.86 ______ Sep 15-21 ____________1871 26.14 _______ Apr 2 - 8 ____________ 1881 _______________ 47.43 ______Sep 16-22 ____________ 1871 27.00 _______ Apr 3 - 9 ____________ 1881 _______________ 46.00 ______ Sep 17-23 ___________ 1875 27.14 ________Apr 16-22 ___________ 1875 _______________ 45.14 ______ Sep 18-24 ___________ 1875 27.43 ________Apr 17-23 ___________1875 _______________ 44.86 ______ Sep 22-28 ___________1947 28.57 ________Apr 18-24 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.57 ______ Sep 25 - Oct 1 _______1947 29.86 ________Apr 19-25 __________ 1875 _______________ 43.29 ______ Sep 26 - Oct 2 ______ 1947 32.57 ________Apr 20-26 __________ 1875 ________________41.71 ______ Sep 28 - Oct 4 _______1888 34.14 ________Apr 24-30 __________ 1874 ________________40.43 ______Oct 3 - 9 ____________ 1964 34.57 _______ Apr 25 - May 1 ______ 1874 ________________39.57 _____ Oct 4-10 _____________1964 34.71 ________Apr 26 - May 2 ______ 1874 ________________39.00 _____ Oct 10-16 ___________ 1876 34.86 _______ Apr 27 - May 3 ______ 1874 ________________38.43 _____ Oct 11-17 ____________ 1876 35.57 ________ Apr 28 - May 4 _____ 1874 ________________38.29 _____ Oct 12-18 ____________ 1876 37.57 ________ Apr 29 - May 5 _____ 1874 _________________38.00 _____ Oct 15-21 ____________1940 38.86 ________ Apr 30 - May 6 _____ 1874 ________________ 35.43 _____ Oct 16-22 ___________ 1940 39.71 ________ May 2 - 8 ___________ 1874 _________________35.14 _____ Oct 17-23 ____________ 1940 40.43 ________ May 7-13 ___________2020 ________________ 34.86 _____ Oct 24-30 ___________ 1869 40.57 _________May 8-14 __________ 2020 ________________ 33.57 _____ Oct 25-31 ____________ 1869 43.14 _________ May 10-16 _________ 1878 ________________ 32.71 ______ Oct 26 - Nov 1 _______ 1869 43.43 ________ May 11-17 __________ 1878 ________________ 32.29 ______ Oct 30 - Nov 5 ______ 1879 44.29 ________ May 12-18 __________ 1878 ________________29.71 _______Oct 31 -Nov 6 _______ 1879 45.14 _________ May 13-19 _________ 1882, 1895 __________29.00 ______ Nov 1 - 7 ____________ 1879 45.57 ________ May 20-26 _________ 1907 ________________ 27.14 _______ Nov 11-17 ___________ 1933 45.86 ________ May 21-27 _________ 1967 ________________ 26.29 _______ Nov 12-18 __________ 1883 46.71 _________ May 24-30 ________ 1907 ________________ 25.43 _______ Nov 16-22 __________ 1880 47.14 _________ May 26 - June 1 ___ 1930 ________________ 22.71 _______ Nov 17-23 __________ 1880 47.57 _________ May 31 - June 6 ___1945 ________________ 19.57 ________ Nov 18-24 __________ 1880 47.86 _________ June 1 - 7 _________ 1945 ________________ 18.86 ________ Nov 20-26 __________ 1880 49.57 _________ June 2 - 8 _________1945 ________________ 17.71 _________ Nov 21-27 __________ 1880 50.86 _________ June 3 - 9 ________ 1945 ________________ 16.43 ________ Nov 27 - Dec 3 _____ 1875 52.14 __________June 8-14 ________ 1980 _________________16.00 ________ Nov 28 - Dec 4 _____ 1875 53.14 __________June 10-16 _______ 1951 _________________ 15.43 ________ Dec 1 - 7 ____________1926 53.86 _________ June 11-17 ________ 1951 _________________14.29 ________ Dec 9-15 ____________ 1917 54.43 _________ June 13-19 _______ 1933 _________________13.29 ________ Dec 10-16 ___________ 1917 54.57 _________ June 20-26 _______ 1918 _________________11.57 _________ Dec 14-20 __________ 1919 55.29 _________ June 21-27 ________1940 _________________10.43 ________ Dec 15-21 ___________1942 56.43 _________ June 24-30 _______ 1893 _________________ 9.29 ________ Dec 16-22 __________ 1942 57.00 __________June 28 - July 4 __ 1888 __________________8.71 _________ Dec 21-27 _________ 1872 58.29 __________June 30 - July 6 __ 1940 _________________ 6.43 ________ Dec 22-28 _________ 1872 58.43 __________ July 12-18 _______ 1888 __________________ 5.29 ________ Dec 25-31 _________ 1917 59.43 __________ July 18-24 _______ 1890 __________________1.29 ________ Dec 26 - Jan 1 _____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-1.00 ________ Dec 27 - Jan 2 ____ 1917-18 ____________________________________________________________-2.86 ________ Dec 28 - Jan 3 ____ 1917-18 (62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920 is the reversal point) ____(-4.43 ______ Dec 29 - Jan 4 _ 1917-18 .. top of table) (to reduce complexity here, after July 18-24 1890, no further values appear until a downward trend begins in mid-August, as most values after that entry are in the 60s and the highest value is 62.00 for July 27 - Aug 2 1920.)

Meanwhile, here is a summary of the number of weekly intervals in each year that achieved highest or lowest values, for the primary stats of high max and low min (there are four other possible tables, low max, high min, high mean and low mean, that might follow after a while). TABLE 1: NUMBER OF WEEKLY INTERVALS THAT ACHIEVED HIGH MAXIMUM for each year (ties are 0.5, there is one case of a three-way tie in Nov) (weeks ending Jan 1-6 are assigned to year with majority of days and are marked * (1936, 1984x2) if they extend into next year ending Jan 1-3), and ** (2023x2, 2007) if they began in previous year (end Jan 4-6) As these cannot be directly read from the totals (months per decade), the actuals are posted in the relevant decades. All six are listed as ending in January in their decade (as are all cases straddling two months, listed by end date). Only the warmer of the two subsets (leap years, non leap years) ending March 1 to 6 count for this table. Monthly counts after decade totals are generated by end dates only (some days in some intervals can be in adjacent months) The random expectation is 2.4 per year and 24.1 per decade, 2.0 per month within decades. YEAR ENDING 0 __ 1 __ 2 __ 3 __ 4 __ 5 __ 6 __ 7 __ 8 __ 9 ___ decade total __ monthly count (total) decade ... (1869) ______________________________________ 0 _____ 0.0 ____ J_F_M__A_M_J__J_A_S__ O_N_D 1870s _________0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 4.0 ____ 0_ 0_0__ 0_2_0__ 0_0_0 _ 0_2_0 1880s _________6 __ 5 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 15.0 ____ 0_ 0_2__ 2_4_2__ 0_0_2__3_0_0 1890s _________0 __ 1.5__ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 6 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 11.5 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_3.5_ 0_3_5 _ 0_0_0 1900s _________0 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 2.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0 1910s _________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 __ 4 __ 2 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____ 7.0 ____ 2_0_0__ 0_0_0__ 0_0_5__ 0_0_0 1920s _________0 __ 0 __ 2 __ 2 __ 0 __ 6 __ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 11.0 ____ 0_0_0__ 0_0_8__ 0_0_0__ 2_1_0 1930s _________5 __ 6 __ 6 __ 3.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 1*__ 0 __ 2 __ 0 _____23.5 ___8_1_0__ 0_4_0__ 0_2.5_4__2_2 0 _ 1936-37* (1) count for 1936 1940s _________0 __ 1.5 _ 0 __ 2 __ 4 _ 5.5 _ 7.5 _ 9 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 35.5 ___1_0_7__ 0.5_0_2__ 0_8_0__13.5_2.5_1 1950s ________2.83_ 1 __ 0 __12 __ 4 __ 4 __ 0 _ 5.5__ 0 __2.5___ 31.83 ___1_1_0__ 0_0_5.5 _ 1_6_6__ 3.5_5.83_2 1960s _________0 __0.33 _8 __ 3 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 8 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0____ 21.33 ___1_0_0__3_6_2 __ 6_0_0__ 3 _0.5_0 1970s _________4 __ 0 __ 1 __ 4 __ 1 __ 3 _ 9.5 __ 4 __ 0 __ 4 ____ 30.5 ____ 3_1_4__ 5_3_1__ 4_1.5_1__ 0_7 _0 1980s _________1.5 _3 __ 2 __7.5 _ 7* *_2 __ 0.5 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 _____23.5 ____ 2_4_0__ 1.5_0_4__ 3_3_3__ 0_0_ 3 _1984-85* (2) count for 1984 1990s _______ 13.5_20 _ 0 _ 10 _ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 16 __ 5 _____ 64.5 ___ 4_11_ 7 __7_4.5_2__13_1_0__ 2_3_10 2000s ________ 3 _ 8.5 _ 10.5 _ 0 __ 1 __ 1 __ 2 __ 4**_ 2 __2.5____ 34.5 ____ 7 _3_2__ 3_7.5_0_ 0_6_1 _ 2_1_2 _ 2006-07** (1) counts for 2007 2010s _________5 __ 1 __ 4 __ 0 __ 0 __ 14 _ 4 __ 3 __ 0 __ 0 _____31.0 ____ 0_ 2_ 8_ 4_ 0_ 0_ 2_0_ 2 _ 0_0_13 2020s _________4 __1 _1.33_13** ** 0 _ ( 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0) ___ 19.33____2 _6_ 1_ 4_0_ 0__ 0_ 0_1 _ 0_5.33_0_ _ 2022-23 ** (2) count for 2023 _____________ ^^2020-2024 Apr 1 _(future years of 2025-29)^^ (366.0) ^ 2022-23 intervals ending 4 and 5 Jan replaced 1992-93**, 1999-2000** (tied but in same decade) and 2004-05 ** ___________________________________________________________________________________ Most weekly intervals warmest on record: 1991_ 20 ... 1998_16 ... 2015_ 14.0 ... 1990_ 13.5 ... 2023_ 13 ... 1953_ 12 ... 2002_ 10.5 ... 1993_ 10 ... 1976_ 9.5 LOG of ANNUAL DATA (by months) ___________ Totals for 30-year intervals 1877 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___2 1879 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0 ___ 2 1880 0 0 2 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1881 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 3 0 0 ___ 5 1886 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1888 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1891 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1.5_0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1895 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1896 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1898 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1874-1903 (1/5 of data, average 71.2, approx 6 per mo) 1901 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 _________ 0 0 2 _ 2 6 5.5_ 2 3 7 _ 3 2 0 ___ 32.5 1914 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1915 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1916 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1922 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1923 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1925 0 0 0 _ 0 0 6 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 1928 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 ___ 1 1930 0 1 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 1931 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 2 0 ___ 6 1932 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 6 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1904-1933 1933 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2.5 0_0 0 0 ___ 3.5 ________9 1 0 _ 0 4 8 _ 0 2.5 9 _ 2 3 0 ___ 38.5 1936 1* 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 (* ends Jan 1 1937) 1938 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1941 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1.5 0 0 ___1.5 1943 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1944 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1945 0 0 5 _0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___5.5 1946 0 0 2 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 1 __ 7.5 1947 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 8 0 0 ___ 9 1948 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1949 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 2 1950 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _0 2.83 0__2.83 1951 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1953 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 1 6 _ 0 3 2 ___ 12 1954 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 4 1955 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1957 0 0 0 _ 0 0 5.5_ 0 0 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 5.5 1959 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 2 0_ 0.5 0 0 ___ 2.5 1961 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0.33 0__ 0.33 1962 0 0 0 _ 3 5 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1934-1963 1963 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 3 0 0 ___ 3 __________ 3 1 7 _ 3.5 5 7.5 _ 1 14 6 _ 22 8.67 3 ___ 81.67 1965 0 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1966 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 _ 6 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 8 1967 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1970 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1972 0 0 0.5_0 0 0 _0 0.5 0_ 0 0 0___ 1 1973 3 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1974 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 1975 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___ 3 1976 0 1 2.5_5 0 0 _ 0 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 9.5 1977 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 1979 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___ 4 1980 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _1 0.5 0_ 0 0 0 ___ 1.5 1981 0 2 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 1982 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 2 ___ 2 1983 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _2 2.5 3_ 0 0 0 ___ 7.5 1984 2* 0 0 _ 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 ___ 7 (* two end Jan 1985 count for 1984) 1985 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 1986 0 0 0 _ 0.5 0 0_ 0 0 0 _0 0 0 ___ 0.5 1990 0 4 5 _ 0 0.5 0 _0 0 0 _2 0 2 ___13.5 1991 0 7 1 _ 4 4 2 _ 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 20 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1964-1993 1993 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 7 0 0 _ 0 3 0 ___10 __________ 6 16 10 _ 10.5 8.5 9 _ 22 4.5 4 _ 2 10 5 _____107.5 1998 4 0 1 _ 3 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 8 ___ 16 1999 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 4 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2000 0 0 1 _ 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2001 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 _ 0 1.5 0_ 0 1 2 ___ 8.5 2002 2 2 0 _ 2 0 0 _0 4.5 0 _0 0 0 ___10.5 2004 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2005 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2006 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2007 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 2 0 0 ___ 4 2008 2 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2 2009 0 0 0 _ 1 1.5 0_ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 2.5 2010 0 0 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 5 2011 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2012 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2015 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 13 __ 14 2016 0 0 4 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 4 2017 0 2 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 3 2020 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 4 0 ___4 2021 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 ___ 1 2022 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _ 0 0 0_ 0 1.33 0_ 1.33 _ _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 1994-2023 2023 2 6 0 _ 4 0 0 _ 0 0 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ 13 __________ 13 11 12 _ 14 7.5 0 _ 6 7 4 _ 2 6.33 23 ___ 105.83 Longest consecutive groups of weekly intervals including all cases 4 or more (=10+ days) (2 would imply an 8-day warm spell, 3 would imply 9 days, etc) (No. ints. = number of intervals, when any are tied the count entered into the table above is also shown in brackets) No. ints. __ days ____ year, and start, end dates overall _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1947 Oct 16-29 (Oct 16-22 to Oct 23-29 intervals) _ first of these prevented 1963 from reaching 4 (10). 1963 often close during 1947 run. _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 1998 Nov 27 - Dec 10 (Nov 27-Dec 3 to Dec 4-10 intervals) _ 8 ________ 14 _______ 2015 Dec 8-21 (Dec 8-14 to Dec 15-21 intervals) see also 5 int spell a few days later _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1953 Aug 25 - Sep 6 (Aug 25-31 to Aug 31-Sep 6 intervals) _ almost equalled by 1973 similar timing (about 2 deg cooler) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1991 Jan 29 - Feb 10 (Jan 29-Feb 4 to Feb 4-10 intervals) _ 7 ________ 13 _______ 1993 July 4-16 (July 4-10 to July 10-16 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1925 May 30-June 10 (May 30-June 5 to June 4-10 intervals) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1932 Jan 9-20 (Jan 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 6 (5.5) ___ 12 _______ 1957 June 11-22 (June 11-17 to June 16-22 intervals) tied 1891 first of these intervals _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 1966 June 27 - July 8 (June 27 - July 3 to July 2-8 intervals) _ (a) _ 6 ________ 12 _______ 2023 Feb 9-20 (Feb 9-15 to 14-20 intervals) _ 5 (4.5) ___ 11 _______ 1946 Oct 24 - Nov 3 (Oct 24-30 to Oct 28-Nov 3 intervals) _ last interval a tie with 1950 _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1962 May 15-25 (May 15-21 to May 19-25 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1976 Apr 14-24 (Apr 14-20 to Apr 18-24 intervals) ^ _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1990 Mar 9-19 (Mar 9-15 to 13-19 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 1999 July 22 - Aug 1 (July 22-28 to July 26-Aug 1 intervals) _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2015 Dec 19-29 (Dec 19-25 to Dec 23-29 intervals) _ 3d interruption in 22d spell Dec 8-29, 2015 within 2 deg. _ 5 ________ 11 _______ 2020 Nov 4-14 (Nov 4-10 to Nov 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1880 May 20-29 (May 20-26 to May 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1895 Sep 17-26 (Sep 17-23 to Sep 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1915 Sep 11-20 (Sep 11-17 to Sep 14-20 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1931 Sep 7-16 (Sep 7-13 to Sep 10-16 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1930 May 1 - 10 (May 1-7 to May 4-10 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1944 Aug 8-17 (Aug 8-14 to Aug 11-17 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1948 Aug 21-30 (Aug 21-27 to Aug 24-30 intervals) _ 4 (3.0) ___ 10 _______ 1950 Oct 28 - Nov 6 (Oct 28-Nov 3 to Oct 31-Nov 6 intervals) _ first tied 1946, last tied 1961 _ 4 (3.5) ___ 10 _______ 1976 Feb 23-Mar 4 (Feb 23-29 to Feb 27-Mar 4, last int tied 1972) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1977 July 13-22 (July 13-19 to July 16-22 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1979 Nov 20-29 (Nov 20-26 to Nov 23-29 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1984 June 5 to 14 (Jun 5-11 to Jun 8-14 intervals) ... was very close second at both ends _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1990 Feb 5-14 (Feb 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) ... lost a day to 2023 see above _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 Apr 4-13 (Apr 4-10 to 7-13 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1991 May 24-June 2 (May 24-30 to May 27-June 2 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Jan 2-11 (Jan 2-8 to 5-11 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 1998 Mar 25-Apr 3 (Mar 25-31 to Mar 28-Apr 3 intervals) * _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2001 Apr 27 - May 6 (Apr 27-May 3 to Apr 30-May 6 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2010 Mar 31-Apr 9 (Mar 31-Apr 6 to Apr 3-9 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2012 Mar 17-26 (Mar 17-23 to Mar 20-26 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2016 Mar 5-14 (Mar 5-11 to 8-14 intervals) _ 4 ________ 10 _______ 2023 Apr 8-17 (Apr 8-14 to 11-17 intervals) * erased 6 int, 12 day spell from 1945, first two intervals remain from that, last four broken by 1998. ^ 2002 had a similar run of three intervals before this one and finished just slightly below the value for the first 1976 interval. (a) 1966 extends to 10 intervals, 16d with 1901 ahead for third and fourth, covering June 23 to July 8. Intensity in 1966 dropped slightly when 1901 ahead, but avg above 91F. (interrupted by one interval from another year) _ 5 _________ 11 _______ 2002 Jan 23-Feb 2 (Jan 23-29, 24-30, (( _ )) Jan 26-Feb 1, Jan 27-Feb 2 ... 1947 interrupted Jan 25-31) These longer warm intervals add up to a total of 203 weekly intervals or over half the calendar year. Two and three consecutive spells are quite frequent also. The "modal" very warm spell is probably around 10 days long as a derived result of this analysis. 20-23 days seems to be an upper limit. ________________________________________________________ "Benchmark" average maxima (highest so early in season from arbitrary start of January maximum, reverses at summer max value, 98.43 (July 15-21, 1977) from that point, second column shows the latest occurrences of benchmark values ending with the highest value of late December) Average ____ Weekly interval ______ Year ______________ Average ___ Weekly Interval _______ Year 59.86 _______ Jan 12-18 ___________ 1932 _______________ (98.43) ____ July 15-21 ___________ 1977 60.29 _______ Feb 18-24 ___________ 2017 _______________ 98.29 ______ Aug 28-Sep 3 _______ 1953 63.29 _______ Feb 19-25 ___________ 1930 _______________ 97.14 _______ Aug 29-Sep 4 _______ 1953 64.86 _______ Mar 6-12 ____________ 2016 _______________ 95.29 ______ Aug 30-Sep 5 _______ 1953 67.43 ________Mar 7-13 _____________2016 _______________ 93.29 ______ Aug 31-Sep 6 _______ 1953 70.29 ________Mar 10-16 ___________ 1990 _______________ 92.14 _______ Sep 5-11 ____________ 1983 73.00 ________Mar 11-17 ____________ 1990 _______________91.00 _______ Sep 9-15 ____________ 1931 73.57 ________Mar 24-30 ___________ 1945 _______________89.43 ______ Sep 10-16 ___________ 1931 75.57 ________Mar 25-31 ___________ 1998 _______________ 89.29 ______ Sep 20-26 __________ 1895 78.43 _______ Mar 26-Apr 1 ________ 1998 ________________87.57 _______ Sep 21-27 __________ 1970 79.14 ________ Apr 10-16 ___________ 2023 80.86 _______ Apr 12-18 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.57 ______ Sep 23-29 __________ 1881 85.43 _______ Apr 13-19 ____________ 2002 _______________ 85.43 ______ Sep 25-Oct 1 _______ 1881 86.29 _______ Apr 15-21 ____________ 1976 ________________ 83.43 ______ Sep 26-Oct 2 _______1881 86.86 _______ May 18-24 ___________ 1962 ________________82.71 ______ Sep 29-Oct 5 _______ 1922 87.29 _______ May 21-27 ____________ 1880 _______________ 82.29 _____ Oct 3 - 9 _____________2007 87.71 _______ May 22-28 ____________ 1880 ________________81.00 ______ Oct 4-10 ______1959, 2007 88.14 _______ May 24-30 ____________1991 ________________ 80.86 ______ Oct 6-12 ___________ 1990 89.00 _______ May 25-31 ____________1991 ________________ 80.43 ______ Oct 8-14 ___________ 1949 90.14 _______ May 28-June 3 _______ 1895 ________________ 80.29 ______ Oct 9-15 ___________ 1954 93.00 _______ May 31-June 6 _______ 1925 ________________ 80.14 ______ Oct 10-16 __________ 1954 95.00 _______ June 1-7 ______________ 1925 ________________ 79.43 _____ Oct 15-21 __________ 1963 95.71 ________ June 27-July 3 _______ 1966 ________________ 78.14 ______ Oct 17-23 _________ 1947 96.29 ________ July 4-10 ____________ 1993 ________________ 76.00 ______ Oct 18-24 _________ 1947 96.57 _________ July 5-11 ____________ 1993 ________________ 75.71 _______ Oct 25-31 _________ 1946 97.00 _________ July 6-12 ____________1993 _________________ 74.86 ______ Oct 27-Nov 2 ______1946 98.00 _________ July 7-13 ___________ 1993 _________________ 74.14 ______ Oct 29-Nov 4 ______1950 98.43 _________ July 15-21 ___________1977 _________________ 73.29 ______ Oct 30-Nov 5 _____ 1950 _____________________________________________________________ 73.14 _______ Nov 3-9 ___________1975 _____________________________________________________________ 72.57 _______ Nov 6-12 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 69.71 ________Nov 7-13 _________ 2020 _____________________________________________________________ 68.14 _______ Nov 17-23 ________ 1953 _____________________________________________________________ 67.29 ________Dec 1-7 ___________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 65.86 _______ Dec 2-8 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.57 _______ Dec 3-9 __________ 1998 _____________________________________________________________ 63.43 _______ Dec 9-15 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.14 _______ Dec 10-16 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 63.00 _______ Dec 11-17 _________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 62.86 _______ Dec 21-27 ________ 2015 _____________________________________________________________ 61.43 _______ Dec 22-28 ________ 2015 ___________________ (next entry would be first entry above, Jan 12-18 1932) or (59.71 Jan 3-9 1998) with a reversal. (similar analysis to follow for low minima)