Roger Smith

Looking at the early climate report for NYC, 77/68, that 68 if it lasts to midnight would be the highest minimum for any November day replacing 67 on Nov 2, 1971. Any thoughts as to whether it could fall a bit before midnight? (Later edit, low for the day at midnight was 54 F, have adjusted the following) ... At the moment, this is the state of play for the weekly averages Nov 1-7 (as I reported yesterday, Oct 31-Nov 6 now has a tied mean max of 70.0 and new high means (63.5) and mean minimum (57.0): week of ____ warmest weeks ______ also near top (2022 breaks first of these) Nov 1-7 ____ (max) 71.71 _ 2022__ 69.57_1975, 2015, 68.71 _ 1950, 68.29 _ 1938, 67.86 _ 1961,82, 67.71 _ 1994, 67.43_1974 Nov 1-7 ____ (min) 57.42 _ 2022__ 55.29_2015, 54.14_1974, 53.86_1938, 53.71_1975, 53.43_2003, 53.29_1948 Nov 1-7 ___ (mean) 64.57 _2022__ 62.43_2015, 61.64_1975, 61.07_1938, 60.79 _1974, 60.14 _1961, 60.07 _1994,2003 _ the mean minimum did drop considerably but this was still be the warmest week for both mean and min. This post was edited as the values changed at end of day. Meanwhile ... coldest week Nov 1-7 was in 1879 (40.29, 34.64, 29.00) and this came after near-record warmth in October and a later record high on Nov 12th of 76 still standing, and a number of other daily records that existed until broken in relatively recent years, notably 73F on Nov 15th first broken in 1973 (77F) then by the 80F in 1993, and also 64F on Dec 11 broken in 2021.

Nicole has formed and current forecasts take it to the boundary of strong tropical storm or hurricane by about Thursday. I will hold off correcting the scoring table until it either does or does not reach hurricane status. Although a major hurricane seems remote, this is after all 2022. The result of Nicole appearing at all is that cheese007 now moves into a slight lead in the contest (current score 99.5, hotair 98.5, Torch Tiger 96.5) but if Nicole reached hurricane status that would change to 98.5, 96.5 and 97.5 for these three). If it became a major hurricane, Torch Tiger would take over the lead at 98.5, cheese007 would drop to 97.5 and hotair 96.5.) More updates when the actual outcome is known.

Would say plenty of time for Nicole (just named) to make a more impactful run closer to the coast. I don't think models will settle on a track until maybe Thursday. This pattern is so warm, I feel it should set up more interaction between Nadine and GL low.

This forecast (as always with me) is based on a study of index values for presumed similar external drivers. Also what's somewhat different about my approach is that you just get a long-range forecast, no graphics about this, that or the other. My basic forecast is a rather average outcome, perhaps a bit on the snowy side of normal for many eastern and central locations, with severe cold intrusions possible at all times due to conditions already developing in the west-central subarctic. So in general, would expect much of the time to average within 5-8 deg of normal with brief much colder intervals possible, in eastern and central regions. Western regions will feel the impact of the cold spells as is already evident, more frequently and for longer intervals. There is potential for some very severe or extreme storm events this winter. Energy levels are ranked in the highest 10%, especially around dates of new and full moons. These severe storms could provide blizzards in some cases, most likely to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, but not ruling out the northeast or even mid-Atlantic states. West coast rainfalls will likely be above normal in parts of central and northern CA, Oregon, WA and sw BC but a colder than average regime may cut off some rainfalls turning them to snow as part of expected above normal snowfalls inland WA and much of BC. This snow anomaly will probably extend southeast into the central Rockies with the storm track often running OR-sUT-nNM before recurving. Some analogue years have had very mild spells in winter (east, central) and brief cold spells, but those managed to deliver on heavy snowfall events from few opportunities. I think this winter will tend to run closer to a balance of mild and cold and more frequent opportunities for snow. If any of the three winter months is to be much colder than average, I would pick December as most likely. Good luck to all who dare to issue these outlooks. I've been reading others and felt there was perhaps enough of a difference with mine to add it to the mix, although I see certain overlaps with some of them too.

As a prelude to expected warmest week of Nov 1-7, can confirm from my tracking that Oct 31-Nov 6 now has new records, mean max of 70.0 is a tie, mean daily 63.50 and mean min 57.0 break existing records. This is based on the provisional values for today, the mean daily and mean min are probably safe if the current reported min of 66 falls a few degrees. (58 for the tie mean minimum) Also the minimum of 64F on 5th broke the daily record of 63F set in 1938 and today's (6th) now confirmed value ties the record 66F from 2015 (several have already posted that 75F is a new daily record max, yesterday and today add two to the former total of 29 days of 75+ in November at NYC). The monthly record high minimum was 67F on Nov 2, 1971.

I have now corrected these entries as they have been confirmed -- week of Oct 31 to Nov 6 ties or breaks records as follows: Mean maximum 70.0, ties 1950, 1961 Mean daily 63.5, new record, breaks 62.57 (1974) Mean minimum 57.0, new record, breaks 55.86 (1974) _ a lower temp by midnight can still break this record, a tie would require 58 F. I expect Nov 1-7 to break records also. (later edit, Nov 1-7 new records set, in tables also ... 71.71, 65.57, 59.43 worth noting that all of Nov 2-8 to 6-12 have higher average maxima from 1975 (2-8, 3-9, 4-10) and 2020 (5-11, 6-12).

BWI: 29.1 DCA: 23.5 IAD: 31.1 RIC: 15.2 (LYH 26.4) BUF: 2000000000000000000000000007

Don't know about that, current anomaly is +9.5 at NYC, could increase then when it does turn cooler on GFS it only lasts a few days and doesn't look much below average. I could see your numbers being close to the actuals by 21st. Depends on what happens after that maybe.

Table of forecasts for November 2022 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay __________________________+5.0 _+7.5 _+7.0 ___ +7.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+2.0 __ 0.0 StormchaserChuck! __________+5.0 _+5.0 _+5.0 ___ +3.5 _+5.0 _+5.0 __+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________+4.1 _+3.9 _+3.7 ___ +4.7 _+3.0 _+3.1 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+0.3 Roger Smith __________________+3.8 _+4.8 _+5.7 ___+4.9 _+3.8 _+2.8 __ -1.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.2 wxallannj _____________________+3.5 _+3.7 _+4.2 ___ +3.0 _+3.7 _+2.6 __ +1.6 _+1.5 _-1.0 Tom __________________________ +3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.6 __ +1.2 _+1.1 _+0.6 ___ Consensus _______________ +3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +3.5 _+3.7 _+2.8 __ +1.5 _+1.0 _-0.2 DonSutherland1 ______________+2.9 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.7 _+2.6 _+2.9 __ +2.5 _+0.1 _ -0.8 BKViking _____________________ +2.3 _+2.4 _+2.4 ___ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +1.2 _+1.0 _ -1.0 wxdude64 ___________________ +2.1 _ +2.6 _+2.7 ___ +3.3 _+2.2 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _-0.5 _ -1.4 RodneyS ______________________+1.3 _+2.3 _+2.2 ___ +2.5 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +1.4 _-0.9 _ -2.1 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _________________________________________________________ Forecasts are color coded, and Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH.

The full list of November days at NYC (Central Park) that have exceeded 75F, organized by days of the month and in order where more than one. For November days without one, the record high is listed. The warmest value shown on days with entries will of course also be the record for that date. 1st _ 84 (1950), 81 (1974), 77 (1982 and 2003) 2nd_ 83 (1950), 79 (1982), 77 (1968), 76 (1929), 75 (1971 and 2001) 3rd _ 79 (2003), 78 (1990), 75 (1936) 4th _ 78 (1975), 77 (1961 and 1987), 76 (1914, 1974 and 1994) 5th _ 78 (1961) 6th ____ (74 1948, 2015) 7th _ 78 (1938) 8th _ 76 (1975), 75 (2020) 9th _ 75 (1975, 2020) 10th_____ (74 2020) 11th______ (74 1949) 12th_ 76 (1879) warmest since is 73 1909, then 72 1912, 70 1927&38, 69 1964, 68 1982, 2020 13th_____ (73 1931) 14th_____ (72 1993) 15th_ 80 (1993), 77 (1973) 16th_____ (72 1928) 17th_____ (71 1953) 18th_____ (73 1921,28) 19th_____ (72 1921) 20th_ 77 (1985), (four years had 74, 1934,42,48,91) 21st_____ (74 1900) warmest since is 72 1931 22nd_____ (72 1931) 23rd_____ (72 1931) 24th_____ (73 1979) 25th_____ (73 1979) 26th_____ (67 1946) 27th_____ (72 1896) (warmest since is 64 on six occasions) 28th_____ (70 2011) 29th_____ (69 1990) 30th_____ (70 1991) (All December) 7th _ 75 (1998) (4th 1998, 74; 4th 1982 and 24th 2015 72; 6th 2001 and 22nd 2013 71, 1st 2006, 5th 2001, 10th 1946 and 29th 1984 70) are the only other Dec maxima 70 or higher. _________________ So there have been 29 days in November that reached at least 75F, and one in December.

Time for a re-do on the scoring report, let's assume Martin becomes a hurricane (Lisa already has) so that the count will soon be 13/7/2. Here's the scoring and "storms required" for all forecasters ... (Update, scoring now based on 14/8/2 with the growing confidence of NHC that Nicole will be a hurricane for some portion of Wed-Thurs Nov 9-10). Tables to be adjusted if Nicole stays only a tropical storm.) FORECASTER _____________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -45.5 _ -6.0 _ -15.0 __ 33.5 (31) cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 (30) ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.0 ___ 65.5 (29) SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 68.5 (27) NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____73.5 (23) RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 ___ 66.0 (28) wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _-10.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.0 (20) IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 82.0 (16) Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____ -10.5 _-10.0 _-10.0 ___69.5 (26) yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___ 85.5 (14) DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 82.5 (15) Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 87.5 (12) Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____ -7.5 _ -6.0 _-6.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 _____ -7.5 _ -3.0 _-1.0 ____ 88.5 (9) ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -7.5 _ -1.0 _-3.0 ___ 88.5 (9) ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -6.0 ___ 86.5 (13) NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 89.5 (8) GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 88.0 (t10) jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 91.0 (7) "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 92.0 (7) snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ 94.0 (6) StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 _____ -3.0 _ -6.0_ -3.0 __ 88.0 (t10) cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 ______ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 95.0 (4) tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 ______ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___93.0 (5) Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 ______ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 __ 97.5 (2) cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______ -0.5 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ 98.5 (1) Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 _______-0.5 _ -3.0 _ -0.0 __ 96.5 (3) Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -7.5 _-10.0 _ -1.0 ___ 81.5 (17) ____________________________________ Ranks above assigned to non-forecasters do not influence ranks of lower scoring forecasters. Table will be placed in scoring order at end of contest. Required future storm count for your forecast to verify (assuming 14 8 2) FORECASTER ____________ FORECAST _____ now needs _ (revised target where primary "needs" not mathematically possible. Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ 13 _ 3 _ 5 (13 4 4 as 13 3 5 not possible) cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 4 ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 _____ 9 _ 3 _ 3 SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 3 _ 2 NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 1 _ 2 (9 1 1 or 9 2 2 as 9 1 2 not possible) RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 _____ 8 _ 4 _ 3 wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 _____ 8 _ 2 _ 3 (8 2 2 or 8 3 3 as 8 2 3 not possible) Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 _____ 7 _ 3 _ 2 Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 4 (7 3 3 as 7 2 4 not possible) WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 3 (7 2 2 or 7 3 3 as 7 2 3 not possible) LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 2 _ 2 IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 _____ 7 _ 1 _ 2 (7 1 1 or 7 2 2 as 7 1 2 not possible) Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 _____ 6 _ 4 _ 4 yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 _____ 6 _ 3 _ 2 Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 2 _ 1 DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 3 (6 2 2 as 6 1 3 not possible) Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 1 Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____5 _ 3 _ 3 Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ 5 _ 2 _ 1 ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 5 _ 1 _ 2 (5 1 1 or 5 2 2 as 5 1 2 not possible) ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ 5 _ 0 _ 3 (5 1 1 or 5 2 2 as 5 0 3 not possible) NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 5 _ 0 _ 2 (5 1 1 as 5 0 2 not possible) GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ 4 _ 1 _ 3 (4 2 2 as 4 1 3 not possible) jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 4 _ 1 _ 2 (4 1 1 or 4 2 2 as 4 1 2 not possible) "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 4 _ 0 _ 2 (4 1 1 as 4 0 2 not possible) snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ 4 _ 0 _ 1 (4 0 0 or 4 1 1 as 4 0 1 not possible) StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 3 _ 3 _ 2 cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 3 _-1 _ 1 (3 0 0 best outcome) tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 3 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____2 _ 0 _ 1 (2 0 0 or 2 1 1 as 2 0 1 not possible) cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______1 _-1 _ 0 (1 0 0 is best outcome) Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome ____________________________________________ These tables will be adjusted if necessary.

Now Martin has formed east of Bermuda, guidance suggests it may become a cat-1 hurricane but I will adjust the tables again for now on the assumption that Martin remains a tropical storm; meanwhile Lisa has not yet become a hurricane but is still looking set to become one before landfall. Scoring tables above are now adjusted. If Martin does become a hurricane (as well as Lisa) then hotair drops to 99.0 and cheese007 reaches 98.5 in the scoring system. Thus if that happens, any further activity would hand over the contest lead to cheese007 at that point. All bets are off if one or both of these late bloomers become majors (not predicted by NHC). Also, let's say a 1 1 1 event happened for storm 14, then the total would be 14 8 3 and I think that would give Torch Tiger a win. If we still have a count of 2 1 0 ahead, that (assuming Martin a hurricane in this scenario) brings us to 15 8 2 which keeps cheese007 in the lead. So there are at least three forecasters in the hunt, a real outburst in November could move the spotlight further up the table.

+3.8 _ +4.8 _ +5.7 _ +4.9 _ +3.8 _ +2.8 _ -1.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.2

If Lisa forms and reaches hurricane but not major status, the scoring will change as shown in the tables above, the lead for hotair increases and if this does happen plus one more tropical storm in November, hotair would reach a score of 100.0 Part two of the scoring table shows what you now need and also what you would need after Lisa goes 1 1 0. If Lisa only achieves 1 0 0, or 1 1 1, then I will adjust the tables.

I think the winter may turn out like 1974-75, the current situation is similar, after a generally cold early October it turned very mild late in the month, hit 80 on Nov 1st and then stayed dull but mild all through Nov-Dec, January 1975 quite mild too, February mild with heavy rainfalls, March turned colder with some below normal intervals, and the first half of April 1975 was unusually cold with a big snowstorm across the Great Lakes that was the latest real blizzard I experienced in my years living in Ontario. Then May 1975 turned scorching hot and very dry. That sort of winter can open up a few brief intervals for a coastal event of some kind, I can vaguely recall a snowfall over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec that was heavy but melted right away in Dec 1974 but in the Toronto area that missed and the month was generally snow-free. By the way, Don you'll be interested in this, as you probably know, the huge positive temperature anomalies run up over this western region (WA, BC) suddenly switched sign a few days ago and we are eroding that near-record value down towards maybe +4F outcomes, it has been cold enough for snow in my area all week, although we only got a brief dump that has melted. But with that unusual warmth, we are still left with a lot of leaf cover locally and the fall colors are quite vibrant, normally this would end mid-October with winds and rain that we just haven't seen at all so far this month (inland, they have seen rain on the coast).

The contest has a very tight leaderboard now with four (provisionally counting October) ahead of Consensus and a few more right behind. Check out the provisional scoring in the October thread, I have posted the annual update a bit ahead of normal schedule for your interest. But both the October and annual scoring is still subject to some variations, as I narrow down the projections towards final outcomes. So with that in mind, here's our November contest, the usual nine locations with forecasts of temperature anomalies in F deg relative to the 1991-2020 "normals" ... factoid from our extreme forecast tracking, so far this year, of the 90 forecasts the coldest value predicted won or came second in more cases (38) than the warmest (28). As has been the case in several previous years, about two-thirds of the forecasts see a top score from the extreme ends of the range or close to that, but the frequency of colder months has increased relative to the usual distribution which has tended to favor warmer than average months in the past. (sometimes an extreme cold forecast will still be above normal though, it's a case where the field went too warm, but most of these cases are related to actual cold anomalies like the one being created this month in DCA) ... any month where the third most extreme forecast takes high score is not counted but some of those are close enough to follow the same pattern, with the two more extreme values still scoring above the field average. Some of the cases where second most extreme wins (these count as losses for extreme forecasts) are also cases where the "loss" represents a higher score than most, sometimes the other way round (one person goes far too extreme and scores lower than consensus, but that case is rare so far this year). For the contest, predict the anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and the deadline is 06z Tuesday November 1st or late on the evening of Oct 31st, trick or treat. (will introduce the snowfall contest with the December thread)

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Oct 2022) _____________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. The confirmed result is that RodneyS has moved into first with DonSutherland1 in second and wxdude64 in third, all fairly close and further ahead of Consensus than before. Also, so_whats_happening has passed Consensus and is not very far behind third now but still fourth. Tom remains fifth just behind Consensus. BKViking (6th) has edged past Hudsonvalley21 (7th) with wxallannj now 8th. RJay and Scotty Lightning remain 9th and 10th, but are not all that far behind the 6th to 8th group. Normal remains between 10th and 11th despite my higher score in October, hoping to pass Normal soon, and Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score has declined slightly but is basically now tied with my 11th place total behind Normal. \ FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL RodneyS ________________740 _688 _604__2032__634 _804 _602__2040 _4072 __760 _830 _676__2266____6338 DonSutherland1 ________ 760 _736 _694__2190__754 _660 _536__1950 _4140 __600 _802 _734 __2136 ____6276 wxdude64 ______________ 671 _727 _719 __2117 __727 _717_ 592__2036_4153 __686 _784 _629 __2099 ____6252 so_whats_happening ____644 _702 _698__2044__693 _718_ 560__1971 _4015 __ 664 _768 _744__2186 ____6201 ___ Consensus ___________682 _718 _664 __2064__702 _698 _552__1952 _4016__710 _788 _681 __2179 ____6195 Tom _____________________ 687 _739 _631 __2057__716 _697 _667__2080 _4137 __721 _695 _578 __ 1994 ____6131 BKViking ________________ 660 _704 _646 __2010__634 _630 _494__1758 _3768 __746 _712 _660 __2118 ____5886 hudsonvalley21 __________624 _698 _702 __2024__660 _642 _530__1832 _3856__658 _782 _588__ 2028____5884 wxallannj ________________602 _668 _598 __1868 __656 _574 _526__1756 _3624 __752 _760 _702 __2214____5838 RJay _____________________606 _702 _730 __2038__649 _636 _504__1789 _3827 __706 _624 _619 __1949____5776 Scotty Lightning _________660 _680 _666 __2006 __648 _620 _558__1826 _3832 __604 _766 _518__1888____5720 _____ Normal _____________710 _676 _596 __1982 __662 _682 _580 __1924 _ 3906 __548 _710 _536__1794____5700 Roger Smith _____________ 604 _588 _404 __1596 __550 _570 _526 __1646 _3242 __758 _744 _737__2239____5481 Stormchaser Chuck (7/10)_447_469 _393 __1309 __390 _511 _355 _1256 _2565 __416 _510 _325 __ 1251____3816 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5451 total points. ========================================= __ Best Forecasts __ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total RodneyS _______________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___4 ___ 3___ 2*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Sep,Oct DonSutherland1 ________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May wxdude64 _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 __ Jan so_whats_happening ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 __ Jul ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ 0 Tom ____________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Mar hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*___ 0 BKViking _______________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 wxallannj _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ___0 RJay ____________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 3*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning ________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ Normal ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 Roger Smith ____________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 5*___ 2 __Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked. (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 66 of 90 forecasts qualify, 28 warmest and 38 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- __ 16-5 (14-5) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 __12-2 (10.0-2) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 __11-1 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 __ 10-1 (9.5- 1) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 __10-0 (8.25 - 0) RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 __ 7-1 (6.25 - 1) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ --- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ 5-0 (3.5 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _3-0 (2.5 - 0) hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- __3-2 (2.0 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 __2-0 (1.25 - 0) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

Final scoring for October 2022 Scores are based on final anomalies listed in the previous post. FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL RodneyS ______________________ 86 _ 96 _ 46 __ 228 __100_ 84 _ 36 __ 220 _ 448 __ 70 _ 98 _ 54 __ 222 ___ 670 Roger Smith __________________ 64 _100_ 38 __ 202 __ 74 _ 70 _ 60 __ 204 _ 406 __ 90 _ 52 _ 80 __ 222 ___ 628 Tom __________________________ 52 _ 86 _ 58 __ 196 __ 94 _ 66 _ 52 ___ 212 _ 408 __ 78 _ 76 _ 48 __ 202 ___ 610 DonSutherland1 _______________ 42 _ 72 _ 70 __ 184 __ 76 _ 50 _ 64 __ 190 _ 374 __ 78 _ 56 _ 84 __218 ___ 592 ___ Normal _____________________48 _ 80 _ 64 __ 192 __100_ 54 _ 64 ___ 218 _ 410 __ 46 _100_ 24 __ 170 ___ 580 so_whats_happening __________34 _ 72 _ 60 __ 166 __ 72 _ 64 _ 60 __ 196 _ 362 __ 76 _ 66 _ 74 __ 216 ___ 578 ___ Consensus ________________ 40 _ 72 _ 66 __ 178 __ 80 _ 46 _ 48 __ 174 _ 352 __ 78 _ 66 _ 54 __ 198 ___ 550 wxdude64 ____________________ 38 _ 70 _ 72 __ 180 __ 78 _ 38 _ 44 __ 160 _ 340 __ 80 _ 68 _ 52 __ 200 ___ 540 BKViking ______________________ 28 _ 64 _ 68 __ 160 __ 80 _ 42 _ 36 __ 158 _ 318 __ 96 _ 54 _ 62 __ 212 ___ 530 RJay __________________________ 18 _ 50 _ 94 __ 162 __ 80 _ 34 _ 44 __ 158 _ 320 __ 86 _ 60 _ 54 __ 200 ___ 520 Scotty Lightning ______________ 28 _ 60 _ 84 __ 172 __ 80 _ 24 _ 34 __ 138 _ 310 __ 56 _ 80 _ 34 __ 170 ___ 480 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 18 _ 48 _ 90 __ 156 __ 66 _ 30 _ 36 __ 132 _ 288 __ 82 _ 74 _ 26 __ 182 ___ 470 wxallannj ______________________ 44 _ 90 _ 46 __ 180 __ 80 _ 14 _ 20 __ 114 _ 294 __ 66 _ 70 _ 40 __ 176 ___ 470 Stormchaser Chuck! __ (-1%) __87*_69*_ 04 __ 160 __ 40_ 73*_ 73*__ 186 _ 346 ___ 36 _ 49*_34 __ 119 ___ 465 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST REPORT StormchaserChuck wins with coldest forecasts DCA (-2.0 pr, -2.6 act) and IAH (-0.5 pr, -1.8 act). BOS (+1.8) a win for RJay with warmest forecast (+1.5). ATL (-2.3) a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (-1.5). NYC, and ORD are close enough to consensus to not qualify (NYC highest score third coldest). DEN (+2.7) is a win for BKViking (+2.5) with warmest forecast. PHX (0.0) is a win for RodneyS (-0.1) and Normal with coldest forecasts. SEA (+3.8) is a win for DonSutherland1 with warmest forecast (+3.0).

Karl was enough to change the lead, tables are adjusted.

Remarkably warm and dry around here for the month so far, expected to continue another week. Normally the fall rains have set in with snow appearing on hilltops, but it is more like late summer with highs in the 70s. Leaf fall is around 10% instead of the normal 50% or more. Even the color change has not reached peak yet.

Reports on anomalies and projections ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th __ (10 d anom)__ -6.9 _ -5.5 _ -1.3 ___ -1.1 __ -2.9 _ -2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +2.4 _ +6.4 21st __ (20 d anom)__-4.8 _-3.2 _ +0.9 __ -4.0 __ -3.5 _ -1.9 ___ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +6.7 26th __ (25d anom) __-3.7 _-1.9 _ +1.5 __ -0.5 __ -3.0 _ -1.4 ___ +3.1 _ +1.0 _ +4.7 29th __ (28d anom) __-3.0 _-1.2 _ +1.8 __ -0.6 __ -2.7 _ -1.8 ___ +2.6 _ +0.4 _ +4.2 11th __ (p20d anom)_ -3.5 _ -2.5 _ -1.0 ___ -5.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 21st __ (p31d anom) _ -2.0 _-1.5 _ +1.0 ___ -2.5 __ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 26th __ (p31 anom) __ -2.5 _-0.7 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 29th __ (p31 anom) __ -2.5 _-0.7 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.5 ___ +2.5 _ +0.5 _ +4.0 31st/1st (anom) ______ -2.6 _-1.0 _ +1.8 ___0.0 __ -2.3 _ -1.8 ___ +2.7 __ 0.0 _ +3.8 The above values are now confirmed ... Scoring has been updated). 11th _ A very cool start to the month in DCA, NYC and ATL, but the main track of further cold outbreaks seems to be more like ORD to eastern Canada. Due to the uncertainty I have not posted the 16-day averages, they would probably all move towards more average values. 21st _ Rest of month looks a bit warmer for east and central regions, will cut into negative anomalies, while west not as warm, SEA in particular likely to take a drop. 26th _ Have adjusted some projections as cold anomalies have eroded very quickly for ORD and NYC while DEN did not turn particularly cold despite the passage of a weak low which will bring in the slightly colder air lurking to the north (where I am, it's 40F here with a trace of snow left over from 3" the other day) ... Scoring will soon be adjusted too. 29th _ Further small changes made to projections and scoring. 31st, 1st Nov _ Final anomalies to be posted, scoring adjusted.

Julia makes the count 10/4/2 with a good chance of 10/5/2 before morning. Here are the current scores based on 10/5/2 ... (Oct 16 _ scoring updated for Karl which made the count 11/5/2) Preliminary scoring report (current basis 11/5/2) ( second entry is for Lisa 110) (third entry Martin 100) FORECASTER ______________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -68.0 _-21.0 _ -15.0 __ (0.0) __10.0 _ 17.5 cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -45.5 _-36.0 _-10.0 __ 8.5 ___23.0 _ 29.0 ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -39.0 _-21.0 _ -6.0 __ 34.0 ___46.0 _ 51.5 SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -39.0 _-21.0 _ -3.0 __ 37.0 ___49.0 _ 54.5 NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -39.0 _-10.0 _ -3.0 __ 48.0 ___58.0 _ 63.5 RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -33.0 _-28.0 _ -6.0 __ 33.0 ___45.5 _ 50.5 wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -33.0 _-15.0 _ -6.0 __ 46.0 ___56.5 _ 61.5 Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -27.5 _-21.0 _ -3.0 __ 48.5 ___59.5 _ 64.0 Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 ___57.5 _ 62.0 WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _ -6.0 __ 51.5 ___61.5 _ 66.0 LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-27.5 _-15.0 _ -3.0 __ 54.5 ___64.5 _ 69.0 IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____-27.5 _ -10.0 _ -3.0 __ 59.5 ___68.5 _ 73.0 Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____-22.5 _ -28.0 _-10.0 __39.5___51.0 _ 55.0 yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____-22.5 _ -21.0 _ -3.0 __ 53.5___64.0 _ 68.0 Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____-22.5 _ -15.0 _ -1.0 __ 61.5___71.5 _ 75.5 DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____-22.5 _ -10.0 _ -6.0 __ 61.5___70.0 _74.0 Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____-22.5 _ -10.0 _ -1.0 __ 66.5___75.0 _79.0 Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 ____-18.0 _ -21.0 _-6.0 __ 55.0 ___65.0 _68.5 Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ -18.0 _-15.0 _-1.0 __ 66.0 ___ 75.0 _78.5 ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _-3.0 __ 69.0___ 77.0 _80.5 ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-6.0 _ -6.0 __ 70.0___ 77.0 _ 80.5 NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ -18.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 __ 73.0___80.0 _ 83.5 GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -14.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 __ 70.0___77.5 _ 80.5 jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _-10.0 _ -3.0 __ 73.0___80.5_ 83.5 "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 __ 77.0___83.5 _ 86.5 snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -1.0 __ 79.0___85.5 _ 88.5 StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _-21.0_ -3.0 __ 65.5___74.5 _ 77.0 cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____-10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 __ 85.5___90.5 _ 93.0 tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____-10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 87.5___ 91.5 _ 94.0 Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 ______ -7.5 _ -6.0 _ -1.0 __ 85.5___91.0 _ 93.0 cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______ -5.0 _ -3.0 _ -0.0 __ 92.0__ 96.0 _ 97.5 Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.0 __ 97.5 ___99.5_100.0 Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 96.5___93.0_ 91.0 ____________________________________ At this point, scores are almost inverse to the forecast table, but Hotair has now moved ahead. Of course there could be 3-5 more storms quite easily at this time of year. So the people with 16 and 17 are probably not eliminated (even 17 11 4 can be achieved at this point ... other than Ed there is no forecast that is not mathematically possible from 11 5 2 but some would require a late October and November beyond anything ever recorded in the past). Here's what you need to make your forecast happen (from 11 5 2) ... and now also 12 6 2 which is the possible outcome for Lisa. FORECASTER ____________ FORECAST _____ now needs _ (after Lisa 110 needs) (after Martin 100 needs) Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ 16 _ 6 _ 5 (15 5 5) (14 5 5) cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ 13 _ 8 _ 4 (12 7 4) (11 7 4) ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ 12 _ 6 _ 3 (11 5 3) (10 5 3) SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ 12 _ 6 _ 2 (11 5 2) (10 5 2) NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 12 _ 4 _ 2 (11 3 2) (10 3 2) RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ 11 _ 7 _ 3 (10 6 3) (9 6 3) wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ 11 _ 5 _ 3 (10 4 3) (9 4 3) Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 6 _ 2 (9 5 2) (8 5 2) Yoda _______________________ 21 __ 10 __ 6 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 4 (9 4 4) (8 4 4) WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 3 (9 4 3) (8 4 3) LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 5 _ 2 (9 4 2) (8 4 2) IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ 10 _ 4 _ 2 (9 3 2) (8 3 2) Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 _____ 9 _ 7 _ 4 (8 6 2) (7 6 2) yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 _____ 9 _ 6 _ 2 (8 5 2) (7 5 2) Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 _____ 9 _ 5 _ 1 (8 4 1) (7 4 1) DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 _____ 9 _ 4 _ 3 (8 3 3) (7 3 3) Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 _____ 9 _ 4 _ 1 (8 3 1) (7 3 1) Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____8 _ 6 _ 3 (7 4 3) (6 4 3) Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 ____ 8 _ 5 _ 1 (7 4 1) (6 4 1) ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 8 _ 4 _ 2 (7 3 2) (6 3 2) ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 ____ 8 _ 3 _ 3 (7 2 2)* (6 2 2) NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 8 _ 3 _ 2 (7 2 2) (6 2 2) GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 ____ 7 _ 4 _ 3 (6 3 3) (5 3 3) jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 4 _ 2 (6 3 2) (5 3 2) "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 ____ 7 _ 3 _ 2 (6 2 2) (5 2 2) snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 ____ 7 _ 3 _ 1 (6 2 1) (5 2 1) StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 ____ 6 _ 6 _ 2 (5 5 2) (5 5 2)** cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 2 _ 1 (5 1 1) (4 1 1) tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ 6 _ 1 _ 1 (5 0 0)*(4 0 0)* Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____5 _ 3 _ 1 (4 2 1) (3 2 1) cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 ______4 _ 2 _ 0 (3 1 0) (2 1 0) Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______2 _ 1 _ 0 (1 0 0) (0 0 0) Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ____9 __ 4 __ 1 ______0 _ 0 _ 0 is best outcome (current dep -2 -1 -1) (-3, -2, -1) (-4,-2,-1) ____________________________________________ * Best outcomes if Lisa a named storm, these two forecasts now cannot verify if Lisa becomes a hurricane, leaving more majors to achieve than hurricanes) ** Martin has now made this forecast unattainable (if Lisa becomes a hurricane) and 5 5 2 brings the totals to 18 11 4 which scores better than 4 4 2 (17 10 4).

BWI _ 10/09 IAD _ 10/09 DCA _ 10/16 RIC __ 10/22 max DCA 74F Oct looks near-record cold from latest guidance.

The annual conttest is very close this year.

Table of forecasts for October 2022 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 _______________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +0.1 RJay __________________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 BKViking ______________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.2 __+1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.4 __ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 so_whats_happening __________+0.7 _ +0.4 __0.0 __ +1.4 _-0.5 _ +0.4 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.5 wxdude64 ____________________ +0.5 _ +0.5 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ Consensus ________________ +0.4 _ +0.4 _+0.1 __ +1.0 _ +0.4 _+0.8 __ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 DonSutherland1 _______________+0.3 _ +0.4 _+0.3 __ +1.2 _+0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 wxallannj _____________________ +0.2 _ -0.5 _-0.9 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ Normal _____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.2 _ -0.3 _ -0.3 __ +0.3 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 __ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 Roger Smith __________________ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ +0.2 __ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.8 RodneyS ______________________ -1.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.9 ____ 0.0 _-1.5 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ -0.1 __+1.5 Stormchaser Chuck! __ (-1%) __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -3.0 ___-3.0 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 __ -0.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 ________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for SEA (+0.1 lowest among forecasters).