Roger Smith

Regarding the dearth of heavy snowfalls in late March, Caswell's weather diary extends the period back a few more years (to spring 1832) and also samples a different location (Providence) to 1860, it's the same story other than a record of 7.5" on March 24, 1840, all very low record values otherwise in late March, and an extra major snowfall in early April is uncovered, 18.0" fell on Apr 13-14, 1841. From his comments this was also a very severe windstorm (nor'easter of course). Toronto's record snowfalls show a less anomalous dropoff when comparing late March and early April, for the period 1843 to present, there are a few rather large falls in the late March interval but some daily records are below the run of those encountered in early April, so a bit of the same signal applies there too.

Just in case, skis 25" knees 26" shoulders 27" not visible 28" + ???

Today, just bringing over the 2025-26 snowfall contest entries from the previous contest year thread. ____ Table of Snowfall forecasts for winter 2025-26 ____ FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV wxallannj _______________________23.0 _28.0 _ 28.0 __45.0 _44.0 _89.0 ___44.0 _18.0 _ 99.0 Tom ____________________________ 19.5 _ 31.1 _ 44.5 __ 40.1 _42.4 _102.4 __ 54.8 _ 6.1 _ 81.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 18.0 _ 22.0 _ 31.0 __ 32.0 _42.0 _93.0 ___52.0 _ 4.0 _ 88.0 wxdude64 _____________________ 15.6 _ 28.6 _ 41.1 ___30.3 _45.5_ 101.5 ___ 66.2 _ 4.7 _ 93.3 BKViking _______________________ 15.0 _ 32.0 _ 41.0 __40.0 _22.0_ 96.0 ___ 58.0 _13.0 _ 80.0 Rjay ____________________________ 15.0 _ 21.0 _ 44.0 __50.0 _33.0_ 100.0 ___65.0 _ 6.0 _ 90.0 ___ Consensus _________________ 15.0 _ 22.5 _ 39.5 __40.1 _42.2 _ 94.5 ___ 55.2 _ 6.1 _ 87.5 Scotty Lightning _______________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _ 25.0 __ 30.0 _45.0 _85.0 ___ 50.0 _ 5.0 _ 95.0 so_whats_happening __________ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 39.0 __ 42.0 _40.0 _91.0 ___ 38.0 _ 4.0 _ 87.0 Roger Smith ____________________12.8 _ 25.6 _ 50.7 __ 57.3 _ 61.5 _115.7 ___ 70.0 _12.5 _ 88.8 DonSutherland1 ________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ 40.0 __ 37.5 _45.0 _ 92.0 ___ 40.0 _ 6.5 _ 80.0 RodneyS ________________________ 6.7 _ 18.9 _ 35.7 __ 44.4 _49.1 _ 99.9 ___ 55.6 _ 9.1 _ 70.4 Mercurial ________________________1.0 _ 10.0 _ 20.0 __ 30.0 _ 30.0 _70.0 ___ 65.0 _ 6.0 _ 60.0 ___ snowfall to date (Dec 31) ____8.6 _21.2 __41.1 ___ 32.1 __36.3 _77.6 ___13.4 _ 0.0 _ 62.0 % of consensus to date ________ 57 __ 94 ___104 ____ 80 __ 86 ___ 82 _____ 24 __ 0 ___ 71 Forecasts surpassed ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 8 ______ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _______ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ===================== Consensus for snowfall is the median of 12 forecasts

The low pulled in some quite mild air that will now be forced up and over as the support vanishes. It was up to near 50F in w PA and parts of w NY. I think 2 to 4 inches may be fairly widespread except in s.w. CT where 0.5 to 1.0 inch would be my call. Local 4 to 6 inch bands in VT, NH and ME still seem possible.

The low crossing the Great Lakes has pulled milder air in from the plains states and highs in w PA and even w NY have reached high 40s to near 50 F. This mild sector will rapidly collapse southeast tonight but especially for those south of Newark, don't be surprised if there's a brief spike in temperatures to around 40-43 F for a few hours around midnight. The milder air will not likely reach the surface for lower Hudson valley, parts of metro NYC and most of Long Island. By morning a colder WNW flow will have arrived and any brief spell above 35 F will be replaced by that cooler air mass. This path for brief warming probably also defines the southern limit of where measurable snow could fall from the system, other than any briefly heavy snow showers in the WNW flow.

You'll be relieved to learn that one person (at least) understood the point you were making -- the most extreme portion of winter is now past, like on August 10th the most extreme part of summer is done. But nearly similar records can still be hit. (he wasn't trying to say the sun angle on Feb 10th = sun abgle on Aug 10th).

With the preliminary climate report for today 31/10 the scoring above is now confirmed. CPcantmeasuresnow had the lowest total errors (1 deg) followed by Tony and bkviking (2 deg). CPcantmeasuresnow had a perfect 17/3 going before the final report of 18/3 changed the results by one degree but still finished first in the temperature contest. I will review the snowfall situation at end of tomorrow's data and score the snowfall forecasts separately just for fun. The current standings are also shown in the previous post. Thanks for participating.

Whatever the merits of this map, arctic cold does not arrive in the west from the central Pacific. It builds down from the Yukon.

For NYC I think the -7 1934 entry is just the midnight low on the way down to the -15, as are some other NYC record lows. There are several -6 lows that would be next in the list of morning lows.

Feb 9 records all set in 1934 BTV -28 BGR -24 ORH -20 CON -19 BOS -18 PVD -17 BDL -15 NYC -15 (BDR +5 1963, PWM -15 1948)

Current contest standings _ low max 18 _ low min 3 temps confirmed at end of day and must survive Monday also tiebreaker needed refers to method placing forecast ahead of tied total error below it (if any) Consensus is ranked but does not affect following ranks. Rank _FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN __ Temp errors __ snow __ tiebreaker needed _01___CPcantmeasuresnow (12) _________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1,0 _ 1 ________ 1.4" _02___Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 1,1 __ 2 ________ 0.6" ___ snow _03___bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 1,1 __ 2 _________ 0.7" _04___RJay (18) _________________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 2,1 __ 3 _________ 0.2" ___ snow _05___Roger Smith (19) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 2,1 __ 3 _________ 0.6" ___ snow _06___dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 1,2 __ 3 ________ 0.7" _07___DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) _______________________17 ___ 6 _____ 1,3 __ 4 ________ 0.2" ___ snow _08___SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 2,2 __ 4 ________ 0.4" ___ snow _09 ___snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 3,1 __ 4 _________ 0.5" ___ snow _(09)____ Consensus (mean of entries) ________ 19 ___ 6 _____ 1,3 __ 4 _______ 0.5" ___ (tied 9th) _10___IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________18 ___ 7 _____ 0,4 __ 4 ________ 0.8" ___ snow _11___TriPol ( 9 ) _________________________________18 ___-1 _____ 0,4 __ 4 ________ 1.3" _12___Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 2,3 __ 5 ________ 0.4" ___ smaller error max _13___Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 1,4 __ 5 ________ 0.4" _14___coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 1,6 __ 7 _________0.75" _16___wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 3,5 __ 8 ________ 0.2" ___ snow [email protected] ( 4 ) ___________20 ___ 9 _____ 2,6 __ 8 ________ -- -- _17___Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ 3,6 ___ 9 ________ Tr ___ best snow forecast so far _18___Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 4,5 ___ 9 ________ 0.1" ___ _19___PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 6,5 ___ 11 _______ 0.5" ===================== <<< now confirmed >>> Max 17 in early climate report became 18 F in final report (max after 4 pm) Snowfall standings, pending any changes on Tuesday 1. Prue11 ___ Tr 2. Rwes1 ___ 0.1" t3. RJay, DonSutherland1, wxallannj __ 0.2" t6. Sacrus, Stormlover74, northshorewx ___ 0.4" t9. Snowman19, PositiveEPOEnjoyer ___ 0.5" t11. Tony, Roger Smith __ 0.6" t13. bkviking, dmillz25 __ 0.7" 15. coastalplainsnowman __ 0.75" 16. IYC77 ___ 0.8" 17. TriPol ___ 1.3" 18. CPcantmeasuresnow __ 1.4" (RJay and DonSutherland1 had the best combined ranks)

The high so far today is now listed at 17F at NYC ... will need to check final values and see what happens tomorrow before declaring a winner but so far CPcantmeasuresnow has hit both numbers right on (17, 3). Tonight winds will be much lighter so NYC will have problems getting as low, plus the upper support is gradually weakening too. I would imagine tomorrow's max will be 25-30 at least so that won't affect the results either.

I don't know who may win the Super Bowl but in the Snow Bowl the current score is BOS 39.5 __ SEA 0.0 (inches of snow to date this winter)

The BWI snow is missing but somebody found it in Norfolk.

Yes, you would also be leader with a max of 18, if 3 is confirmed as low (the contest runs through tomorrow so it would need to remain above 3 F tonight). A max of 16 or lower would give RJay the title, dmillz25 would win for a max of 19, and Sacrus for a max of 20. Snowfall only needed to separate RJay and you, as well as myself. There again RJay would have to avoid 0.6" to 1.4" snow through Tuesday by contest rules. A snowfall of 0.8" would leave order of entry as the tie-breaker, and RJay can only beat me on order of entry. We should have a preliminary max for NYC and a confirmed min by about 5 p.m., will be back then, but the preliminary max would need to hold up until midnight.

6 at NYC at midnight (low for Feb 7th). It could still fall several more degrees. A moderate wind is better for continued cooling at mid-town sites, if the wind drops the urban heat island spreads in.

By midnight it was 6F at NYC for the daily low Feb 7th.

Just realized that the 1934 records were for Monday (Feb 9th), tomorrow is Feb 8th so the 1934 records I mentioned were set (like NYC -7F) at midnight on the way down to readings below the records quoted. For some reason I had it in my mind that tomorrow was the ninth. Anyway, I can see where it may not drop quite as low near the coast because of continued stronger winds there but I bet it gets way below zero over this fresh snow pack if skies stay clear most of the night.

Contest snow is only a Trace, as 0.1" before midnight outside the contest period. Prue11 leads on that element so far. Today's max of 27 (before 0500) may not stand after tomorrow, but we never know. Our mildest low max prediction is 24. Our mean is 19 and our lowest is 16. For the min, almost bound to be tonight the forecasts range from -1 F to +9 and the mean is +6. The record low is -7F set at midnight on the way down to the coldest of all records at NYC, -15 (1934) Feb 9th 1934. It was -50 F upstate and in rural eastern Ontario on that frigid occasion (under a strong arctic high). That day also set the low max for Feb 9th, 8F. Two earlier very cold Feb 9th's were 1899 (11, -2) and 1875 (13, 0). Since 1934, the coldest readings on Feb 9 have been 19F (lowest max 1994) and 9F (lowest min 1979). The record low max for Feb 8th is 8F in 1895, and the lowest otherwise is 21F on several occasions. The coldest min since 1934 was a -2F reading Feb 8, 1963.

65F in western ND and eastern MT today.

I would predict airports will drop to -5 to -10 F range, rural areas of eastern New England -12 to -16 and western New England -18 to -23 F. Saranac Lake NY could be close to -40. Setting records will depend on whether any given location had records in 1934 or not. An all-time record low of -52 (from memory, not entirely sure) was set at Saranac Lake or Lake Placid on Feb 9, 1934. But that was under a 1050 mb arctic high. I just looked it up and BOS has a record on 9th of -12 set in 1934. The record high of 66 was set in 1933! Providence has a record low of -9F (1934 also) but Worcester is -10 from 1963. Hartford is -13 set 1967. Both Hartford and Worcester have older record highs than 1934 so either they didn't drop as much, or were temporarily shut down. Even Central Park NYC dropped to -15, and downtown Toronto had -21 F. (note added later, these 1934 lows quoted above were actually midnight lows on the way down to colder readings the next day, I was mistakenly assuming Sunday was the 9th but it's really the 8th ... that probably explains why ORH and BDL did not have 1934 record lows for the 8th but I'll check when they show up on climate reports what all four locations set as records on the 9th).

I don't know how the Super Bowl will turn out, but the Snow Bowl score at half time is 39-0.

Binghamton NY is -3 F with NW winds gusting to 48 mph. Sustained wind is only 18 mph suggesting very squally conditions. Even at the lower wind speed wind chill there is -25 F, probably closer to -40 during stronger gusts, Expect a rapid increase in wind speeds in lower Hudson as gradient tightens, once the frontal boundary moves beyond the Berkshires.

Just 0.1" of snow reported from NYC up to midnight so the contest period didn't miss out on much with that start.

It should accelerate now which may eventually weaken it, but it's being pulled quickly into the circulation off the coast and will be advancing more like 50-75 mph from now on. It's going to be through DC and Baltimore before 0230 at the rate it is going, and beyond all southeast parts of this forum before 0330 except far southeast VA, may have lost a lot of its identity by then with just remnant flurries.