Roger Smith

Table of Forecasts for May 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3 BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3 RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus ___________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0 so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5 Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5 RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2 Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ______ Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8 ================== Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place.

+1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.5

My usual end of month appearance to remind contest entrants (main forum) of approaching deadline for MAY forecasts. On subject of those power outages, I noted that strong winds were blowing in one region of southern Spain and light winds prevailed elsewhere, at time of problems, and during very warm and sunny conditions generally -- could be an imbalance in wind energy contributions to grid causing oscillations.

^^ above find scoring for April (to be adjusted at end of April) ... ... below, post May forecasts ...

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 239 _286 _272 __797__280 _300 _230_810 _1607 _ 207 _244 _280__731 ___2338 hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _288 _300 __ 811 __226 _300 _241 __769__1578 __234 _222 _270__726 ___2304 so_whats_happening __269 _306 _236 __ 811 __272 _306 _231 __809 _ 1620 __196 _180 _300__ 676 ___2296 Tom ___________________241 _280 _276 __ 797 __ 288 _230 _248 __766 _ 1563 __262 _236 _218__ 716 ___2279 RJay __________________ 249 _340 _316 __905 __ 306 _306 _ 221 __ 833 _1738 __ 163 _172 _204__ 539 ___2277 BKViking ______________ 181 _258 _230 __ 669 __292 _290 _225 __807 _ 1476 __253 _224 _274__ 751 ___2227 wxallannj ______________217 _258 _264 __ 739 __308 _226 _212 __746 _1485 __ 232 _234 _259__ 725 ___2210 Scotty Lightning _______264 _270 _216 __ 750 __213 _202 _ 220 __ 635 _ 1385 __167 _276 _270__ 713 ___2098 DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _234 _236 __ 641 __240 _262 _198 __ 700 _ 1341 __ 213 _230 _296__ 739 ___2080 StormchaserChuck ___ 241 _256 _236 __ 733 __200 _290 _ 175 __ 665 _ 1398 __229 _208 _223__660___2058 wxdude64 _____________184 _226 _212 __ 622 __ 224_ 254 _196 __ 686 _ 1296 __235 _244 _260__739___2035 RodneyS ______________ 212 _218 _234 __ 664 __ 172 _202 _184 __ 558 _ 1222 __145 _248 _338__ 731 ___ 1953 Roger Smith ___________204 _248 _228 __680 __ 248 _242 _212 __702 _ 1382 __ 106 _168 _271__ 545 ____1927 ___ Normal _____________144 _220 _232 __ 596 __ 194 _082 _085 ___361 __ 957 __190 _242 _270__ 702 ___1659 maxim (2/4) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222 Persistence ______________90 _186 _250 __ 526 ___112 _180 _154 __ 446 _ 972 __ 62 _ 98 _ 210 __ 370 ____1342 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning ________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 StormchaserChuck ______1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 1 _____0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 21 of 36 ... 13 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0 _2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 =========================================================

Eastern states long overdue for a very hot summer and nobody would be surprised if it came in 2025.

The maps alone would be sketchy at best, but we also have some other clues from obs elsewhere, I would imagine the cold NW flow was good for a few snow showers and then the organized event by Apr 17-18 was likely a cold rain in present NYC metro and wet snow in n NJ and lower elevations se NY.

NOAA now has maps going back to 1836. They are available on the weather forum wetterzentrale.de and here's a link to Apr 16, 1849 at 12z. (click on archives at wetterzentrale's home page). Toronto wx data (starts 1840) indicates very cold air mass, 29/16 and 1.5" snow on Apr 15, 30/20 dry on Apr 16. Caswell in Providence RI recorded 24F as low for Apr 16 and near 37F for a max, no precip noted and says "clothes on line froze in a strong NW wind." Low DonS references gave 1.05" rain there Apr 17-18, 40s F. http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1849&maand=04&dag=16&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

I found a wx map for Apr 16 1849, looks like NYC may have seen some snow or sleet showers in a very cool NW flow, but the s.e. coastal snow was associated with a low off the coast that did not move n.e., it weakened and the cold n.w. flow continued over NYC region for two days. Probably 4/16/1849 was close to 39/29 .05" prec 0.1" snow. NW 20-35.

_ Final scoring for April 2025 _ ... ATL scores for ATL are based on max-60 rule modified to preserve differentials. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTALS StormchaserChuck _____________ 64 _ 96 _ 88 __ 248 __ 98 _ 60 _ 42 __200 _ 448 __92 _ 74 _ 96 __262 ____ 710 RJay ____________________________ 50 _ 88 _ 76 __ 214 __ 98 _ 58 _ 60 __ 216 _ 430 __ 94 _ 98 _ 76 __ 268 ____ 698 hudsonvalley21 _________________ 54 _ 98 _ 86 __ 238 __ 82 _ 56 _ 46 __ 184 _ 422 __ 84 _ 92 _ 86 __ 262 ____ 684 Tom _____________________________52 _ 94 _ 82 __ 228 __92 _ 40 _ 36 __ 168 _ 396 ___84 _ 96 _ 98 __ 278 ____ 674 Scotty Lightning ________________ 60 _ 88 _ 76 __ 224 __ 88 _ 48 _ 40 __ 176 _ 400 __ 76 _ 98 _ 94 __ 268 ____ 668 so_whats_happening ___________ 54 _ 90 _ 72 __ 216 __ 96 _ 40 _ 34 __ 170 _ 386 __ 82 _ 86 _ 92 __ 260 ____ 646 ___ Consensus _________________38 _ 76 _ 70 __ 184 __ 76 _ 46 _ 38 __ 160 _ 344 __ 84 _ 94 _ 94 __ 272 ____ 616 DonSutherland1 _________________ 26 _ 64 _ 62 __ 152 __ 70 _ 44 _ 36 __ 150 __ 302 __ 80 _ 92 _ 92 __264 ____ 566 BKViking ________________________ 14 _ 64 _ 48 __ 126 __ 68 _ 22 _ 38 __ 128 __ 254 __ 90 _ 98 _ 94 __282 ____ 536 Roger Smith _____________________ 24 _ 58 _ 42 __ 124 __ 68 _ 58 _ 60 __ 186 _ 310 __ 46 _ 74 _ 84 __ 204 ____ 516 wxdude64 _______________________04 _ 32 _ 24 __ 060 __ 64 _ 50 _ 32 __ 146 _ 206 __100 _90 _ 92 __ 282 ____ 488 ___ Normal _______________________30 _ 68 _ 56 __ 154 __ 78 _ 18 _ 10 __ 106 __ 260 __ 66 _ 72 _ 84 __ 222 ____ 482 wxallannj_________________________20 _ 54 _ 46 __ 120 __ 70 _ 28 _ 20 __ 118 __ 238 __ 70 _ 86 _ 80 __ 236 ____474 RodneyS ________________________ 24 _ 52 _ 54 __ 130 __ 30 _ 40 _ 22 __ 092 __222 __ 40 _ 60 _100 __200 ____422 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) __________36 _ 50 _ 64 __ 150 __ 14 _ 90 _ 98 __ 202 _ 352 __ 50 _ 98 _ 84 __ 232 ____ 584 =================== Extreme forecast report DCA, ORD, BOS, ATL, IAH, are wins for highest forecasts, based on preliminary estimates ... StormchaserChuck would take DCA, NYC, ORD (tied with RJay) and ATL for 3.5 net. RJay (net 1.0) and Roger Smith (net 0.5) share IAH. NYC _ at +1.6, hudsonvalley21 takes a win and StormchaserChuck a loss. Persistence does not participate but would have won ATL and IAH by a small margin.

Anomalies to mid-April and projections ... __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom Apr 1-15) _____+1.1 __ -2.0 _ -1.3 ___ -1.6 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 __ +1.2 _ +3.3 _ +1.0 ___ (anom Apr 1-25) ____ +3.3 __+1.0 _+1.3 ___+0.8 _ +4.2 _+4.4 __+1.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 ___ (p anom Apr 1-30) __+3.5 __+1.5 __+1.5 ___+1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __+1.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ final anomalies ______+3.5 __+1.6__+2.2 ___+1.1 _ +4.5 _ +4.6 __+1.7 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

Winter here (near US-Canada border north of Spokane) was a bit colder than average, near normal snowfall and almost no rain which is usually about 30-40 per cent of total precip at my elevation, so it was a very good ski winter as no slushy intervals and always colder than freezing on slopes. There was no severe cold really, just a steady 2 to 4 below average trend. In central and eastern regions I was expecting perhaps a more active pattern but the storm track, such as it was, set up about where expected. It just didn't perform very often and produced mostly small to medium snowfalls, however southern and eastern Ontario into northern New England did quite well especially in February. We just got back from a trip to the desert southwest region and it was clearly a drier winter in 2024-25 than the previous one, much less display of desert bloom this spring. Bone dry everywhere and I was actually caught up in the circulation of a rapid-onset dust devil (at Chinle AZ) which seemed to have 40-50 mph winds (otherwise the day was just slightly breezy). It was ten meters across and I was just turning right from a parking lot when it popped up out of nowhere. It lasted about a minute and moved around erratically until it dissipated. Weird or what, this is my second core punch of a dust devil, both unplanned, the other one was bigger and caught me from behind in Lakeview, OR on Sept 1, 2016. Estimate that one had 60 mph winds as I almost wiped out. Again, it came out of a clear blue sky and an otherwise pleasant day. Record high temps during our visit to AZ and UT, 84F on Friday 11th in SLC driving home, TV news said it had hit 92F in St George. The previous two days had been in low 80s in high desert locations, normal at time of year is about 60-65.

I give mine an eh?

Just a note to indicate files in this thread are always updated ... after two very mild winters (2022-23, 2023-24) at Toronto and NYC, the past winter was not as extreme although still milder than average. Excel files posted earlier have also been updated; if anyone wants an updated version send me a message.

I would guess min 33 max 43 Tues 8th, and min 29 max 46 on Wed 9th (NYC), 27/39 and 25/43 lower valley and rural NJ with 1-2" snow Tuesday over Catskills and Berkshires, only a few stray flakes in se NY, 0.5" to 1.0" Poconos and a few n NJ higher elevations.

Forecasts for April 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1 so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7 RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ Consensus _________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7__-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4__+0.9 _+1.7_+0.5 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4 Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8 wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8 BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0

Six recent Marches ranked (2020 to 2025) 8th, t-15th, 19th, t-27th, 7th and t-11th. This consistent series was well ahead of 1985 to 1990 (t-15th, t-22nd, t-20th, t-38th, t-57th, and t-22nd) in second place in ranks exceeded for six years. 1991 at t-27th presents a seven-year interval that 2026 can erase with any finish over t-57th. (2019 was t-68th). 2007 (61st) is coolest of 2006-12 so 2006-11 or 2007-12 rank third for six-year consistency and 2006-12 is second for seven-year. Ranks for 2006-12 are t-44th, 61st, 54th, t-57th, 6th, t-59th, and 2nd. 1945-46 at 1st, 3rd are only consecutive Marches with higher ranks than 2024-25 (7, t11). 2020-21 is third (8, t-15).

<<<< APRIL RECORDS for NYC >>>> note: temp in ( ) after Low min is daily max associated if not a record low max DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min _________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ____ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 _____12 1923 (36) _____ 1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ____ 8.5 1924 Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ____ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 _____22 1919 (36 1st) ___ 1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018 Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ____ 59 1892, 2015 _ 34 1896 _____24 1954 (43) ______1.90 1983 ___2.42 2024^___10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th) Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ____ 62 1892 _______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 __________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37" rain 2d 1876 Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ____ 60 1892 _______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) _____ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944 Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^____58 2010 _______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) _______ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7. Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ____ 63 1991 _______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 ___________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958 Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ____ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982___________ 1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940* ___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th) Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ____ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) ____ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*___ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942 Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ____ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 _____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906 Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ____ 61 2017 _______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th) ___ 1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918 Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ____ 64 2023^_______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ___________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940 Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^____ 67 2023^_______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 __________ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875 Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^____ 70 2023^_______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ____ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d) Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 _____ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 ____________ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S) Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ____ 69 2002 _______ 39 1872 _____29 1928 ___________ 3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018 Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ____ 74 2002 _______ 33 1875 _____27 1875 ___________ 1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___Trace 1935^ Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ____ 76 2002 _______ 32 1875 _____25 1875 ___________ 2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887 Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ____ 68 1976 _______ 40 1875 _____22 1875 ___________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____ 0.8 1983 Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ____ 67 1976 _______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 ___________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874 Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ____ 60 1923 _______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 ___________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ____Trace 1928,47 Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ______40 1873 _____28 1875 ___________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ____Trace 1929,72 Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ____ 60 1926 _______ 40 1883 _____29 1872 ___________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ____Trace 1906,30,63,86 Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ____ 63 2008 _______ 44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 ___________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ____ 0.5 1883 Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ____ 58 1979, 82 _____ 43 1919 _____29 1919 ___________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ____ 3.0 1875 Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ____ 67 2009 _______ 42 1874 _____31 1919 ___________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ____Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910 Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ____ 61 1949, 2011____45 1946 _____36 1932 (48) ______ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ____Trace 1932,67 Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) ______ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ____Trace 1874,1931 Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ____ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 ___________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 ____ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958 Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______ 45 1925 _____32 1874 ___________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ ___ 0.0 (no traces) -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ notes above 3rd _ new record 2d prec (2.42" 2024) replaced 2.01" (1917) 6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947 12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017) 13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945) 14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019) 16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014 17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935. 29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909) 28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85" 29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th). __________________________________________________________________________

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 __ -0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ -1.0 _ +2.7 __ 0.0

Later storms will probably drop 0.40" to 0.70" on average, local 1.0-1.5 possible if two cells pass a location. ... marginal severe wx, gusts to 50-60, small hail. One weak tornado in n/c NJ would not surprise.

A reminder to enter April forecasts in contest ... Don, I wonder if contest consensus is a hidden form of AI? As you know, contest consensus in past years has generally beaten random (30-year avg) by an average of 0.5 to 1.0 F and as long as I have been tracking, also beats persistence (previous month anomaly) by an even larger amount. Not saying we have the 10-15 most skilled forecasters on site in contest, but even those we do have almost all beat normal. Our most skilled long-term (yourself, wxallannj, RodneyS) average 1.0 to 1.5 F errors per month ... less skilled regulars average 1.5 to 2.0. Will AI get even that good?

Looks like an area north and n.w. of BWI to se PA will see storms develop by 6-7 p m.

Backdoor cf ... Looks likely to rebound as wf to e PA-sNJ by 18z, 925 mb front is already there now and cool air intrusion very shallow. -- may see mid 80s again later today and svr wx risk monday.

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development. Expect meso discussion to be issued.