Roger Smith

Surf's up at Achill Island.

Yeah, the actual remnant low of Erin drifted around south of Iceland for two days, sending in waves of moisture towards Ireland and the Isle of Man, n.w. England etc, but the remnant low didn't actually reach coastal waters until today (Thursday 28th) near Portrush, the site of this year's golf Open championship. All of Ireland got a good drenching over three days after a very dry first 24 days of August with roughly one third of normal August rainfall. Now it's closer to two thirds. https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/satellites/ireland-infrared

And we have a sure winner here: 1. Don't know 2. Don't know 3. Don't know But I will be a sport and make some entirely uneducated guesses. ... Karen to become a cat-4 in early October after forming in late September. ... also nagging you to keep your social distance (too soon?)

Enter your September forecasts below ... this post will eventually be edited, the seasonal max info will move here and that post will change to updated annual scoring which so far has not been added to preliminary August scores three posts back.

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024 Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th) Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th) Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd) _____________ ^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30. (for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2) There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S.

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that.

_________Table of forecasts (over and above current 5 1 1) ______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________17 _ 10 _ 5 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 16 __ 9 _ 3 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 15 _ 10 _ 2 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 15 __ 9 _ 3 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 15 __ 8 _ 4 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________14 __ 7 _ 4 marsman (14) _______________________________14 __ 4 _ 2 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 13 __ 9 _ 4 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 13 __ 9 _ 3 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________13 __ 9 _ 2 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 4 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 3 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 13 __ 8 _ 3 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 12 __11 _ 5 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 12 _ 10 _ 4 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 12 __ 8 _ 3 yoda (22) ____________________________________12 __ 8 _ 3 ___ consensus _______________________________12 __ 8 _ 3 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 4 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 wxallannj (21) ________________________________12 __ 7 _ 3 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 George BM (35) _____________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 12 __ 7 _ 3 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 12 __ 6 _ 3 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 12 __ 6 _ 3 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________12 __ 6 _ 2 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 4 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 3 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 11 __ 8 _ 3 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 11 __ 7 _ 3 Newman (15) ________________________________ 11 __ 6 _ 2 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________10 __ 6 _ 3 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________ 10 __ 6 _ 2 cardinalland (14) _____________________________10 __ 5 _ 2 NC USGS^ (33) _______________________________ 9 __ 9 _ 1 Ga Wx (20) ___________________________________ 9 __ 8 _ 2 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _____________________ 9 __ 7 _ 3 Retrobuc (11) _________________________________ 9 __ 5 _ 2 StormchaserChuck (23) ______________________ 8 __ 6 _ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ____________________ 7 __ 8 _ 3 Hotair (26) ____________________________________ 6 __ 3 _ 1 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 11.8 __ 7.3 _ 3.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries The above represents the count you now require to complete your forecasts.

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list 02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don 03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don 05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __ 07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don 08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __ 08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __ 10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don 10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don 10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don 13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __ 14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don 15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __ 16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __ 16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __ 18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __ 19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __ 20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __ 21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don 22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __ 23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __ 24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __ 24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __ 26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __ 27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __ 27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don 27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __ 30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __ 31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __ 32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __ 33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __ 35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __ 35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __ 37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __ 38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __ This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index.

NYC high of 70F was not quite a record low max (68F 1990, 2000). Today (21st) won't break the record low max either, since it was 59F in 2007 (tied with Aug 31, 1911 as lowest of all maxima in August). Record low minima for 21st to 23rd are 53 (1922), 52 (1895) and 51 (1923). Highs associated with them are in the low 70s F and not record low maxima. This indicates they were all intrusions of fall-like cooler air from the northwest and not like 21st-22nd 2007 held down by cloud and northeast winds. (max on 22nd 2007 was also a record low 65F).

1991 28th and 2002 33rd in my list; bearing in mind there really isn't much differential from about 20th to 40th, and the older years get a boost of 2 F compared to anything recent. Without that boost, about six fall out of the top 20 and all these 20-30 ranked years move up that many ranks at least. I am somewhat conflicted about applying any urban heat correction, the positive is that it allows a better assessment of climate change from other sources, the negative is that people alive in those earlier years experienced actual temperatures shown in my tables and people nowadays 2 F warmer than shown. In between, like around the 1930s, the differential was closer to 1 F. Perhaps the annual average is 2 F but seasonal differences are not all exactly the same, and I should retool the comparisons based on seasonal ranges. Summer is probably the season I would reduce the boost, and winter I might increase it, leaving it as is for spring and autumn. That would likely move 1876 down a few rungs, as well as 1906, 1908 and 1870. Oddly, while urban heat island increase is supposed to give a larger increase in overnight minima, the years making it into the top ten are known mainly for warm nights back in the early phase of NYC's urbanization. These years may have resembled 2025 more than the really hot summers of recent decades (a steady dull warmth).

Don's top ten summers 2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994 Their ranks in my table __ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30 LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th. The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996.

In my Toronto-NYC climate study (in climate change forum) this is how I ranked the seasons after making adjustments for urban heat island. I rated the heat island at 0.2 F or 0.1 C deg every decade, until 1980, after which I held it steady ... so data from 1981 to 2025 is reduced by 2 F or 1.1 C, 1971-80 by 1.0 C, 1961-70 by 0.9 C, etc, until one reaches 1869-80 which is not reduced at all. I am going to check this against Don's list for summers. <<< Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) >>> 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. __ Spring 2025 will enter the table 14th warmest 11.58 C. __ Summer 2025 is headed for a finish near 23.30 C which would be 38th warmest, but many years are jammed into a narrow range between 30th and 50th. warmest ................................................................................................ coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _________________________________________

I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside. A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F.

Current scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS to date _ _ _ _ errors in italics can only increase (forecasts lower than actual or equal) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 ... will be adjusted whenever seasonal max change at locations ... ... BOS can no longer affect contest standings (all forecasts already passed) (forecasts) Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS hudsonvalley21 __________ 14 _ 28 _ 32 __ 074 __ 74 _ 26 _100 __ 200 _ 274 __ 86 _ 44 _ 80 __ 210 ____ 484 wxallannj ________________ 14 _ 32 _ 30 __ 076 __ 56 _ 46 _ 90 __ 192 _ 268 __ 84 _ 76 _ 70 __ 240 ____ 508 RJay _____________________20 _ 36 _ 36 __ 092 __ 64 _ 50 _ 90 __ 204 _ 296 __100 _60 _100 __ 260 ____ 556 Roger Smith _____________ 20 _ 40 _ 34 __ 094 __ 60 _ 20 _ 74 __ 154 _ 248 __ 74 _ 76 _ 76 __ 226 ____ 474 Yoda _____________________22 _ 48 _ 52 __ 122 __ 86 _ 52 _ 96 __ 234 _ 356 __ 82 _ 52 _ 96 __ 230 ____ 586 wxdude64 _______________26 _ 38 _ 34 __ 098 __ 78 _ 58 _ 78 __ 214 _ 312 __ 78 _ 62 _ 98 __ 238 ____ 550 ____ Consensus _________28 _ 48 _ 50 __ 126 __ 82 _ 52 _ 92 __ 226 _ 352 __ 88 _ 58 _ 94 __ 240 ____ 592 Scotty Lightning _________ 30 _ 50 _ 60 __ 140 __80 _ 40 _ 90 __ 210 _ 350 __ 70 _ 50 _ 70 __ 190 ____ 540 so_whats_happening ____ 30 _ 54 _ 50 __ 134 __ 82 _ 58 _ 80 __ 220 _ 354 __ 90 _ 56 _ 92 __ 238 ____ 592 Tom ______________________38 _ 60 _ 62 __ 160 __ 96 _ 52 _ 92 __ 240 _ 400 __ 84 _ 46 _ 88 __ 218 ____ 618 DonSutherland1 __________44 _ 60 _ 58 __ 162 __ 92 _ 66 _ 74 __ 232 _ 394 __ 92 _ 62 _ 96 __ 250 ____ 644 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 46 _ 62 _ 54 __ 162 __ 92 _ 68 _ 74 __ 234 _ 396 __100 _66 _ 94 __ 260 ____ 656 ____ Normal ______________50 _ 70 _ 70 __ 190 __100 _ 70 _ 70 __ 240 _ 430 __ 60 _ 20 _ 60 __ 140 ____ 570 RodneyS _________________78 _ 64 _ 82 __ 224 __ 82 _100 _72 __ 254 _ 478 __ 96 _ 50 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 706 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 22 _ 30 _ 32 __ 084 __ 98 _ 02 _ 94 __ 194 _ 278 __ 60 _ 48 _ 76 __ 184 ____ 462 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL __ All currently would be wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC, ORD would be a win for Tom (+0.2) and also a win for Normal. PHX would be a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH, DEN and SEA would not be extreme forecast qualifiers. ======================================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________

Erin is not a fish storm, it's a whale storm.

I just updated our contest stats and noted PHX at +6.3 for August so far. August 7 at 118, 94 was the warmest day (+11). No day so far this month has been cooler than +3. Up here the heat wave ended yesterday and today we have light rain and just 68 F at last look. A few days ago it was close to 100 F here. Not a lot of fires in the region this summer thankfully, the focus is further south and northeast into central Canada, but BC has done fairly well except for a couple of recent outbreaks on Vancouver Island. Heavy rain there now will be putting an end to that problem.

A report on anomalies in the first two weeks of August 2025 ... _______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5 15 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 27 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0 (15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. (27th) _ Adjusted projected end of month anomalies. Scoring will also be adjusted. SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

Yes, hoping tomorrow evening still has good viewing because moon will rise a bit later (it's 10:00 pm here, already cooled down nicely to 72 F, and a big old moon looking like God's ear above the horizon now in east-south-east). Except for moon we have very dark skies outside of town here, good for viewing auroral displays and meteor showers and night sky etc.

LB would be in heaven here, 100/55 outside, not a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery over the entire region (just snow capped mountains). It has not been a particularly hot summer here so far but we're roasting now.

The BC forest fire situation has been relatively dormant all summer and these fires on Vancouver Island are relatively small and should be easier to fight than the massive blazes in remote areas of northern SK. Fire fighting in near-population parts of Canada is conducted in the same way as in the western U.S. and with the same success rates. There is no political foundation for any strategy of ending the forest fire risk by levelling our forests, in particular the progressives who control politics in Canada would go ballistic if anyone seriously suggested this. We've had bad forest fire seasons in the past too, this is not some new phenomenon. A large portion of northern Ontario was burned out in the summer of 1916. I can recall bad forest fire seasons in 1977 and 1980 in central Canada. Back in the day a thick forest fire haze was quite normal in the west, in an era before fire suppression began, and that is as recently as the 1920s and early 1930s. People only started to organize fire suppression in recent decades.

Table of forecasts for August 2025 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA.

LB, the heat wave in 1933 ran from July 30 to Aug 2, 98 _ 102 _ 100 _ 98. June 8 and 9 of 1933 also set record highs (95, 97). In 1955 there were also two very hot days in July, 100F on 22nd and 99F on 23rd. Those were records at the time broken later (1957, then 2011). The max on Aug 20, 1983 at NYC was 96F, one below the 1955 date record. 1944 and 1948 were getting quite warm by late July but there were no additional 100F readings to add to those set in August.

Daily records for NYC for August ... Notes: temps in brackets with low min indicate some associated maxima that are not the low max records. Also, for 2d rainfalls, which routinely include the previous day (e.g. Aug 1 is July 31-Aug 1), a * symbol indicates all the rain fell on the date and ** indicates all the rain fell the previous day. Otherwise the two days both had some of the total indicated. Some notes below the body of records indicate secondary noteworthy events not records. Date __ Hi max __ Hi min _______ Low max __ Low min ______ max 24h rain _ max 2d rain total Aug 01 ___100 1933 ___ 82 1917 ________ 68 1923 _____ 59 1895, 1964 ____ 2.85 1878 ___ 3.99 1889 (2.29+1.70) Aug 02 ___100 1955 ___ 83 2006 _______ 67 1875 _____57 1875 ___________ 2.49 1973 ___ 2.52 1973 Aug 03 ___ 97 2005 ___ 78 1975,2006 __ 66 1921 _____ 55 1886, 1927 ____ 2.71 1946 ___ 3.11 1885 (0.67+2.44) Aug 04 ___100 1944 ___ 78 1908,2005 _ 69 1909 _____56 1886 (69 3rd) ___ 3.25 1915 ___ 3.66 1915 Aug 05 ___101 1944 ____ 81 1908 _______ 68 1903 _____56 1886,1912,51 __ 1.44 1884 ___ 3.05 1884 Aug 06 ___ 97 1931,55__ 80 1906,08,18__ 64 1915 _____ 56 1869 (67) ______ 3.31 1878 ___ 3.31 1878* Aug 07 ___104 1918 ____ 82 1918 _______ 64 1975 _____57 1994 (75 6th) ___ 2.18 1921 ___ 3.65 1990 (2.30+1.35) ^ Aug 08 ___ 99 2001 ____ 80 1980 _______69 1903 _____ 54 1903 ___________ 2.60 1927 ___ 2.60 1927*__ 2.50 2007 (1d) Aug 09 ___103 2001 ___ 82 1896,2001 _ 68 1879 _____57 1919, 89 _______ 4.10 1942 ___ 4.83 1976 (0.93+3.90) Aug 10 ___ 98 1891,1949 _ 80 1896 ______ 60 1962 _____ 55 1879 (73) ______ 4.64 1990 ___ 4.70 1990 __ 2.51 2006 (1d) Aug 11 ___102 1944 ____ 81 1891,96 ____ 68 1931,33,62_ 56 1962 ___________2.90 2018 ___ 6.14 1990 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) Aug 12 ___ 97 1944 ____ 80 1988 _______ 64 1979 _____ 55 1889 (73) ______ 3.62 1955 ___ 4.90 1989 (1.90+3.00)^ Aug 13 ___ 99 2005 ____ 82 1908 _______ 68 1873,1934_ 55 1930 (73 12th) _2.70 1955 ___ 6.32 1955 __ 4.01 1926 (2d)^ Aug 14 ___ 99 1988 ____ 84 1908 _______ 66 1873,1919_ 54 1964 (77) ______5.81 2011 ___ 5.81 2011*_ 3.10" 2005 (1d) Aug 15 ___ 97 1988 ____ 81 1988 _______ 66 1992 _____ 54 1964 (80) ______ 1.52 1911 ___ 6.37 2011 Aug 16 ___ 96 1944 ____ 79 1938 _______ 65 1883 _____ 55 1880 (73) ______ 4.80 1909 ___ 4.83 1909 Aug 17 ___ 95 1944,2015_ 78 1978,2015 _ 65 1909 _____ 56 1881^ 1979 ____ 2.86 1974 ___ 5.15 1909 Aug 18 ___ 94 1913,87,2002_78 2002_______ 62 1874 _____ 55 1915 (73) ______3.95 1879 ___ 4.59 1879 Aug 19 ___ 94 1914,66,2002_ 77 1906,2015 _70 1881,1946_ 55 1924 (73 18th) _2.53 1991 __ 3.95 1879** Aug 20 ___ 97 1955 ____ 77 1906,83,2015_ 68 1990,2000_ 55 1949 (76) _____4.80 1873 ___ 4.89 1873 __ 3.63 1904 (1d). Aug 21 ___ 96 1955 ____ 78 1906 _______ 59 2007 _____ 53 1922 (66 22nd) _4.45 2021^___4.84 1873 Aug 22 ___ 95 1916 ____ 78 1906 _______ 65 2007 _____ 52 1895 (71) ______ 2.67 2021^___ 7.12 2021 _ 4.32 1888 (2d) Aug 23 ___ 92 1916 ____ 77 1906 _______ 63 1930 _____ 51 1923 (72) ______ 3.03 1930 ___ 3.74 2021 3.29 1933 (1.06+2.23) 5.51" 3d (2.22 21st) Aug 24 ___ 94 1972 ____ 76 1891 _______ 64 1937,45 __ 52 1890 (65) ______ 3.61 1893 ___ 3.94 1893 __ 2.81 1891 (1.91+0.90) Aug 25 ___ 95 1948 ____ 76 1961,98 ____ 64 1873 _____ 52 1940 (69) ______ 1.86 1982 ___ 3.61 1893** Aug 26 ___103 1948 ___ 78 1948,2021 __ 61 1940 _____ 53 1887 (67) ______ 3.24 1908 ___ 4.13 1941 (1.83+2.30) Aug 27 ___101 1948 ____ 79 1948 _______ 62 1927 _____ 50 1885 (65) ______ 4.16 1971 ___ 4.16 1971*__ 2.88 2011 (1d) Aug 28 ___100 1948 ____ 79 2018 _______ 60 1940 _____ 50 1885 (68) ______ 3.99 2011 ___ 6.87 2011 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) ^^ Aug 29 ___ 99 1953 ____ 81 2018 _______ 63 1903 _____ 50 1965,82,86 _____ 2.68 2002 ___ 3.99 2011**_ 2.85 1983 (2d) Aug 30 ___ 98 1953,73 _ 78 1973,2018 __ 62 1911 _____ 50 1965 (70) ______ 2.18 2008 ___ 2.68 2002**_ 2.37 1872 (2d) Aug 31 ___100 1953____ 78 1953 ________ 59 1911 _____ 50 1976 (72,74) ____ 3.76 1911 ___ 4.61 1911 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 6th-7th 2.77" 1978 (1.78+0.99) .. 1878 no additional rain 7th. ^ 12th _ _ 3.34"R 1926 (1d). 4.01" 12th-13th. ^ 17th max for 1881 was 67, for 1979 68 next day ^ 21st rainfall prev record 4.19" 1888 (broken 2021) ^ 22nd rainfall prev record 1.85" 1994 (broken 2021) also prev 2d rain 4.32" 1888 ^^ 27th-28th 2d rain 1971 5.96 (4.16+1.80) ________________________________________________________________

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800. So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September. In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above. We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31.