Roger Smith

Anything is possible for forecasters with higher values than this heat wave produced, it's probably 50-50 whether a warmer spell comes along or not ... 1952 had similar heat and repeated it in mid-July. Some other years never got back to the June peaks they saw (1943 for one example, I think). The 1952 repeat was something like July 14-17.

Current scoring as of June 25th I have added the two late forecasts to table to keep track of their unofficial rankings. These two late forecasts are not included in contest consensus. Their ranks will not alter any forecaster ranks for on-time "official" entries. A decimal rank indicates a position between two official ranks. Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in 4120 6321 Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21)____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____ 0 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____ 0 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8) ____ 0 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___ 2 (rank 5) ____ 0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9)____ 1 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 ____________________________ see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced. Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

Update, BWI 99 is the only upgrade today, RIC tied 99 already set. 96 at both DCA and IAD. I will edit the scoring table ...

Is today's min going to persist to end of the calendar day? I suspect maybe something like an evening low of 76?

Current scoring as of June 24th Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 4 3 __ 16 (rank 19) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 4 1 __ 13 (rank 18) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 5 4 __ 16 (rank 20)____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 3 2 __ 11 (rank 15) ____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 6 4 __ 18 (rank 21)____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 4 1 __ 11 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 4 2 __ 11 (rank 17) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 3 1 ___ 9 (rank 14) ____ 0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___1 3 4 1 ___ 9 (rank 13) ____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 1 2 3 2 ___ 8 (rank 12) ____ 0 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 2 1 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 2 3 ___ 7 (rank 11)____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 1 2 ___ 5 (rank 9) ____ 0 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 8) ____ 0 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 0 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 2 0 ___ 2 (rank 4) ____ 0 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 0 1 2 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 2 0 ___ 5 (rank 10)____ 1 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 5) ____ 1 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 0 1 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 2 ____________________________ see original post for tie-breaker protocols ... error points "baked in" are those from forecasts below actual values, these error points cannot now be reduced. Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

Update __ June 24 ___ 99 _ 97 _ 98 _ 99

No doubt these will be adjusted within 24 hours but so far ... 98 96 97 97

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Early climate report for NYC indicates 96 max ties daily record set in 1888 _ second highest value on 23rd was 94F in 1966. 80 min sets new record for date (77 1888) and is only second 80+ min in June (81 June 26, 1952). There have been a number of 79F mins including non-record June 26, 2003, and daily records for 10th 1984, 21st 2012; 24th 1909; and 30th, 1945, 1959.

Posted this on main June thread ... What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

What I'm noticing about Monday and Tuesday is a very light wind field, almost NW to N as the surface flow begins to lose identity. Certainly a hot enough air mass to approach 100F in the NYC metro but will any weak sea breezes develop to keep readings in the low to mid 90s? I would bet on 102-105 in parts of NJ.

Preliminary scoring for June 2025 based on latest posted estimates of final anomalies in previous post. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e_DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL Roger Smith ________________ 80 _ 80 _ 90 __ 250 __ 90 _ 90 _100 _280_ 530__90 _70 _ 90 __250 __ 780 RJay ________________________ 90 _ 90 _100 __ 280 __100_ 80 _ 80 _260_ 540__80 _60 _100 __240 __ 780 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 92 _ 92 _ 90 __ 274 __ 78 _ 74 _ 60 _ 212_ 486 __74 _90 _ 84 __248 __ 734 wxallannj ___________________ 96 _ 94 _ 98 __ 288 __ 60 _ 92 _ 66 _ 218_ 506 __74 _76 _ 94 __244 __ 750 BKViking ___________________ 98 _ 96 _ 92 __ 286 __ 88 _ 56 _ 50 _ 194 _ 480 __96 _60 _ 82 __238 __ 718 Tom ________________________ 96 _ 92 _ 84 __ 272 __ 72 _ 84 _ 58 _ 214 _ 486 __70 _82 _ 96 __248 __ 734 ___ Consensus ______________96 _100 _ 92 __ 288 __ 76 _ 72 _ 60 _ 208 _ 496__74 _68 _100__ 242 __ 738 so_whats_happening _______ 94 _ 92 _ 92 __ 278 __ 78 _ 72 _ 60 _ 210 _ 488 __98 _66 _ 78 __242 __ 730 DonSutherland1 _____________92 _ 96 _ 96 __ 284 __ 98 _ 54 _ 56 _ 208 _ 492 __68 _66 _ 90 __224 __ 716 Stormchaserchuck1 ________ 92 _ 96 _ 90 __ 278 __ 66 _ 62 _ 54 _ 182 _ 460 __ 90 _94 _100 __284 __ 744 Scotty Lightning ____________80 _ 80 _ 60 __ 220 __ 60 _ 70 _ 70 _ 200 _ 420 __ 70 _80 _ 90 __240 __ 660 wxdude64 __________________76 _ 84 _ 78 __ 238 __ 58 _ 66 _ 50 _ 174 _ 412 __ 52 _ 48 _ 98 __198 __ 610 ___ Normal __________________60 _ 60 _ 50 __ 170 __ 50 _ 50 _ 40 _ 140 _ 310 __ 60 _ 40 _ 80 __180 __ 490 RodneyS ____________________50 _ 82 _ 70 __ 202 __ 14 _ 36 _ 64 _ 114 _ 316 __ 62 _ 42 _ 98 __202 __ 518 _________________ Persistence (May 2025) ____ 56 _ 42 _ 66 __ 164 __ 00 _ 56 _ 96 _ 152 _ 316 __ 66 _ 68 _ 70 __204 __ 520 ==================== EXTREME FORECAST report DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD all narrowly outside win-loss situation as third warmest forecasts have high scores. ATL at +2.5 would be a win for wxallannj (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+3.0) IAH at +3.0 would be a win for highest forecast Roger Smith DEN at +2.0 would be a win for so_whats_happening (+2.1) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (+2.5) PHX at +3.0 would be a win for highest forecast StormchaserChuck (+2.7) SEA is not close to an extreme forecast at present, estimate close to consensus.

Well ... these two late forecasts are both on the hot side, I will at least mention in scoring where they would rank if they had been submitted on time. But official rankings will be confined to on-time entries.

Anomalies and projections ... _ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-20) _____________ -0.9 _-0.9 _-0.2^ __+0.5 _+1.1 _+1.8 ___ +0.6 _+2.8 _+1.5 _____ ( p anom 1-30 ) __________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+3.0 _+1.0 ^ BOS -0.4 to 19th, 20th missing but daily report +3 anom. Will update seasonal max after impending eastern heat wave but PHX has already hit 117 and DEN 99. ... ... Seasonal max update DCA 99 __ NYC 99 __ BOS 102 ___ ORD 95 __ ATL 96 __ IAH __ 98 ____ DEN __ 99 ____ PHX 117 ___ SEA __ 90

Very cool for late June in PAC NW, currently only 48-50 F at lower elevations of n Idaho and nw Montana, se BC, and snow is reported in mountain passes. A cold drenching rain here, not good for a weekend but great news for forest fire suppression. It is only 45F at my elevation (normal here is 80F).

Okay, so there were no last minute entries or edits, the table of forecasts remains as earlier posted (now two posts back) ... good luck ... by the way, Weather53, your win was two contests back, Jebman is the current (no show) defending champ. I seriously considered adding 2 to my forecasts but that usually backfires so I'll stick with the relatively moderate numbers I had. It would surprise me if this coming heat wave is the only serious attack on 100 all summer, only a small number of years have their seasonal max in June, off the top of my head I could say 1923, 1952, 1956, but more often a June record high is followed by some more later in the summer.

You may still enter the contest until 0200h EDT (06z June 20) ... I am posting this now to give last-minute entrants and current forecasters a quick overview of forecasts already made ... so far twenty-one have entered and all have managed to find a unique set of values.The consensus as median gives a slightly different outcome to means, so I may change the contest consensus to a mean value if it gives a better set of numbers. At 0200h or a few minutes later, I will edit out this table and post it after all on-time forecasts that may be placed below in the thread. If there are no further forecasts I will just edit this part instead. I may boost my own forecasts, it is looking very hot early next week under a near-600 dm upper high. If so, all other forecasts will drop one number in order of entry. __ Table of entries __ 2025 seasonal max __ FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____________________________ Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100, Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

1960: A heat burst struck Kopperl, TX, located about 50 miles southwest of Fort Worth from a dying thunderstorm. As the air sank, it warmed to around 140°. When the heat burst struck the ground, winds fanned out at over 75 mph. People had to wrap themselves in wet blankets to protect themselves from the heat. All crops were destroyed by the heat. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) If this had been recorded at a weather station it would have been the highest ever verified temperature not only in the U.S.A. but on earth. I wonder what evidence existed for saying it was 140 degrees?

Please note, I had originally chosen June 22-23 as deadline (23rd 06z) but in view of current model projections I have adjusted the deadline forward to June 20 at 06z, or end of the day Thursday of next week ... I don't believe this will have much impact on turnout which is trending towards the usual 20-30 entries already. And I wanted to avoid a situation where a record high on the day after deadline attracts a number of very small over-run of deadline entries, this way, I can have a table of entries ready before the heat arrives and a clear barrier to last minute nowcast type entries.

Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

Anyone who missed the contest notice and wants in, or who wishes to amend a forecast as given above, can do so today ... after that the contest is closed to further entries for scoring purposes. As of present moment, I had received six entries on Net-weather and none on the Irish site which provided four or five in past years. I am a member there so I guess I will be their sole representative unless somebody shows an interest today.

_________Table of forecasts______________ FORECASTER (order of entry) ______________ TS _ H _ M matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 22 _ 11 _ 6 Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 21 _ 10 _ 4 Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 20 _ 11 _ 3 CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 20 _ 10 _ 4 The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) ______________ 20 __ 9 _ 5 NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________19 __ 8 _ 5 marsman (14) _______________________________19 __ 5 _ 3 ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 5 Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 18 _ 10 _ 4 Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) ________________18 _ 10 _ 3 hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 5 Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 nvck (32) ___________________________________ 18 _ 9 _ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________ 17 _ 12 _ 6 Tallis Rockwell (18) __________________________ 17 _ 11 _ 5 Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 yoda (22) ____________________________________17 __ 9 _ 4 ___ consensus _______________________________ 17 __ 9 _ 4 (median) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 5 BarryStantonGBP (1) ________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 wxallannj (21) ________________________________17 __ 8 _ 4 jmearroz (31) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 George BM (35) _____________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 Kaari (NW-7) ________________________________ 17 __ 8 _ 4 cnimbus (6) _________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 FPizz (9) ____________________________________ 17 __ 7 _ 4 wxdude64 (28) ______________________________17 __ 7 _ 3 jconsor (3) __________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 5 BKViking (29) _______________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 ___ UKMO ___________________________________ 16 __ 9 _ 4 LakeNormanStormin (7) _____________________16 __ 8 _ 4 Floydbster (12) ______________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 WxWatcher007 (25) ________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 ___ NOAA ___________________________________ 16 __ 8 _ 4 Newman (15) ________________________________ 16 __ 7 _ 3 vpbob21 (19) _________________________________15 __ 7 _ 4 ineedsnow (2) _______________________________15 __ 7 _ 3 cardinalland (14) _____________________________15 __ 6 _ 3 NC USGS^ (33) ______________________________ 14 _ 10 _ 2 Ga Wx (20) __________________________________ 14 __ 9 _ 3 LongBeachSurfFreak (4) ____________________ 14 __ 8 _ 4 Retrobuc (11) ________________________________ 14 __ 6 _ 3 StormchaserChuck (23) _____________________ 13 __ 7 _ 4 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) ___________________ 12 __ 9 _ 4 Hotair (26) ___________________________________ 11 __ 4 _ 2 ================= mean (excl expert fcsts) is 16.8 __ 8.3 _ 4.0 ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries

Extreme heat covers the entire PAC NW and BC region, highs close to 100 F in many locations inland. Cloudless over the region, visible satellite making it easy to find remnant snow cover on mountain ranges.

or a heat burst from nearby thunderstorm? (I saw mention of storms in parts of region, wasn't following very closely today) ... those heat bursts usually happen towards end of a storm's life cycle though.

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th) ... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th. ___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___