Roger Smith

BWI 16.7" DCA 14.5" IAD 16.9" RIC 12.0" SBY 9.8" numerous small events and one moderate event in a fast flow highly variable pattern

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Re the approaching Newfoundland windstorm, you don't often see changes this rapid and dynamic at a weather buoy site such as this one to the south of western Newfoundland ... winds went from east 40 knots to south 50-70 knots to west 50-65 knots in about three hours and the temperature spiked at 20 C (68 F). I see reports already of southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr in southeast Newfoundland but I wonder if the public forecast is strongly worded enough for the gusts that are going to hit there in about 2-3 hours from now? http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44139

Quite the windstorm developing overnight to hit southeast Newfoundland (Avalon Pen) on Tuesday, winds could be near 150 km/hr in gusts. Low deepens to 945 mb as it approaches the Terra Nova area. I wonder if this is a sign of explosive development potential for lows later on in the approaching winter season in the general area? Then the next one along on Wednesday night develops rapidly off Nova Scotia and could bring 2-4" snowfalls to Atlantic Canada and eastern Maine towards conclusion of storm precip Thursday morning, but it looks like just a few wind blown flurries for New England otherwise, maybe scattered 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow over higher terrain .... are Lake Champlain snow squalls possible? ... there are some unusually cold air masses for this early showing up.

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point. General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

Worth noting one record set at NYC in October was daily rainfall on Oct 30, 1.83" replaces 1.64" (1917). Now that's a good year to be copying, right?

I posted these ideas in other subforums ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. and would add more specific to this region, one or two blizzards likely on tracks from Nebraska to n MO to s IN-OH, frequent strong lake effect downwind of L Michigan and L Huron, very large temperature oscillations likely as Pacific mild and arctic cold air masses alternate in a fast flow with frequent alternations but one or two spells of deep cold centered on the Midwest region. Yours may be the "it" sub-forum for winter 2025-26. Could be similar to that recent winter when MLI, MSP set snowfall records? was that 2020-21? I recall it from snowfall contests we used to have in this subforum.

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February.

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

<<<<< NOVEMBER daily records at NYC 1869-2024 >>>>> DATE ____ High max __ High min ___ Low max __ Low min __ Max prec (r) _Max 2d rain_ Max snow Nov 01 ___ 84 1950 ____ 65 1956 _______ 41 1869,75 _ 30 1869, 1877 ____ 1.69 1988 ___ 2.83 1956 __ 0.1 1887 Nov 02 ___ 83 1950 ____ 67 1971 _______ 41 1875,95 _ 30 1887 (43 1st) __ 1.70 1954 ___ 2.29 1897 __ Tr 1895, 1954 Nov 03 ___ 79 2003 ____ 64 1936 ______ 37 1879 _____ 28 1875 __________2.60 1910 ___ 2.60^1910* _ Tr 1951,58,62 Nov 04 ___ 78 1975 ____ 62 1982 _______ 35 1879 _____ 25 1879 __________1.55 1950 ___ 3.37 1910 __ no snow (latest) Nov 05 ___ 78 1961 ____ 64 2022^______ 35 1879 _____ 23 1879 __________1.94 1984 ___ 1.96 1985^__ 0.1 1933 Nov 06 ___ 80 2024^__ 66 2015,22 ____38 1878,1953_27 1879 (40) ______1.47 1911 ___ 1.94 1984**_ 2.5 1879 (2.2 1953) Nov 07 ___ 78 1938 ____ 63 1938 _______ 41 2012^_____ 29 1930 (43) ____ 2.96 1963 ___ 4.23 1963 __ 4.3 2012 Nov 08 ___ 76 1975 ____ 63 1975 _______ 38 1886 _____ 29 1886, 2019 ____ 7.40 1977^___ 9.19 1977 __ 0.4 2012 (4.7 2d) Nov 09 ___ 75 1975,2020_ 64 1895 _____ 37 1894 _____ 24 1976 (41) _____3.65 1889 ___ 7.40 1977**_ 2.3 1892 Nov 10 ___ 74 2020 _____60 2020^______ 38 1873 _____ 25 2017 (51) _____1.70 1990 ___ 3.68 1889 __ Tr 1877,1971,87 Nov 11 ___ 74 1949 ____ 64 2002, 2020 _ 33 1987 _____ 24 2017 (38) ____1.41 1995 ___ 1.71 1987^__ 1.1 1987 Nov 12 ___ 76 1879 ____ 60 2022* _____ 38 1894 _____ 25 2019 _________ 1.82 1975 ___ 2.39 1947^__ Tr (2013^) Nov 13 ___ 73 1931 ____ 59 1909 _______ 33 1911 _____ 23 2019 (34) ______ 2.06 1937 ___ 2.19 1937 __ Tr (2014^) Nov 14 ___ 72 1993 ____ 58 1951 _______ 29 1873 _____ 20 1905 (36) ______2.23 1972 ___ 2.23 1972* _ 1.0 1911 Nov 15 ___ 80 1993 ____ 61 1989 _______ 32 1933 _____ 20 1967 (35 16th) _ 2.43 1892 ___ 2.43 1892*_ 6.4 2018 Nov 16 ___ 72 1928 ____ 59 2006 _______29 1883 _____ 17 1933 (30) ______ 2.39 1985 ___ 3.19 1892 __ 1.0 1872 Nov 17 ___ 71 1953 ____ 60 1927 _______ 30 1924 _____ 19 1924, 33 _______ 1.54 2014 ___ 2.79 1985 __ Tr (1980^) Nov 18 ___ 73 1921,28 _ 57 1928 _______ 33 1914,24,59_18 1936 (49) ______ 1.24 1911 ___ 1.54 2014** _2.0 1873 Nov 19 ___ 72 1921 ____ 57 1906,2015 __ 31 1880 _____ 18 1936 (37) ______1.95 1932 ___ 1.97 1932 __ 0.3 1884 Nov 20 ___ 77 1985 ____ 62 1985 _______ 32 1873 _____ 21 1873 ___________3.37 1988 ___ 3.38 1988 __ 1.0 1955 Nov 21 ___ 74 1900 ____ 62 1991 _______ 24 1879 _____ 16 1879 ___________1.57 2024^___ 3.37 1988**_ 0.8 1937 Nov 22 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931,92 ____ 23 1880 _____ 13 1880 ___________2.03 1878 ___ 2.52 2023^ __ 0.3 1989 Nov 23 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931 _______ 25 1880 _____ 14 1880 __________ 1.84 1923 ___ 2.03 1878**_ 4.4 1989 (4.7 2d) Nov 24 ___ 73 1979 ____ 61 1979 _______ 30 1880,2013_ 14 1880 _________ 1.99 1873 ___ 2.20 1873 __ 3.9 1938 Nov 25 ___ 73 1979 ____ 62 1979 _______29 1938 ______ 19 1938 __________ 1.59 1950 ___ 1.99 1873**__ 4.9 1938 (8.8 2d) Nov 26 ___ 67 1946 ___ 55 1946,2020__26 1880 _____ 16 1880, 1938 ____ 1.91 1996 ___ 1.93 1996 __ 5.0 1898 (4.5 1882) Nov 27 ___ 72 1896 ____ 60 1896 ______28 1898,1932 __12 1932 __________2.15 1889 ___ 2.49 2013^_ 5.0 1898 (10.0 2d) Nov 28 ___ 70 2011 ____ 56 2011 _______ 24 1871 ______ 15 1930 (27) ______2.14 1937 ___ 3.09 1889 __ 0.8 1912 Nov 29 ___ 69 1990 ____ 58 2005 ______ 25 1871 ______ 14 1875 __________ 2.20 2016 ___ 2.20 2016*__ 3.8 1892 (+0.2 30th) Nov 30 ___ 70 1991 ____ 58 2006 ______ 14 1875 ______ 5 1875___________1.11 1928 ___ 2.93 2016 __ 9.0 1882 (4.9 1898) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES (For 2d precip (rainfalls), ** indicates all of the precip fell the previous day and * indicates all of it fell on the one day with zero the previous day.) (Temps in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum if it was not also a record low maximum) ^ 3rd _ 2d rainfall 1992 2.56" (0.38+2.18) ^ 5th _ 2d rainfall 1985 1.96" (0.30+1.66) edged out 1984 (0 +1.94) also 5th _ former record high min 63F (1938) * 6th _ 2022 (75F) broke previous high maximum of 74F set in 1948 and 2015. ... 80F in 2024 then broke 2022 record. ^ 7th _ low max tied 1886, 1903, 1927, 2012 ^ 8th _ 5.60" rain 1972 fell on the only day in Nov when it would not be a daily record. No additional rain on either 7th or 9th. ^ 8th _ 3.60" rain 2006 also fell on this date, .02" added on 7th, zero on 9th. ^ 10th _ 60F high min 2020 replaces 58F 1966, 1977. ^ 10th-11th _ 1.71" rain 1987 (1.26+0.45) edged out 1990 which had 1.70 + zero for the two days. 1962 had 1.61 + zero. ^ 11th-12th _ 2.39" rain 1947 (0.80+1.59). * 12th _ high min (60F) 2022 broke previous tied record 56F 1912, 1935 ^ 12th _ trace snowfalls 1934,68,77,87,95, 2013 ^ 13th _ trace snowfalls 1896,1921,34,39,42,68,77,84,2004, 2014, 2021. ^ 17th _ trace snowfalls 1873, 1882, 1935, 40, 67, 80 ^ 21st _ 2024 broke 1944 record of 1.33" ^ 22nd _ 2d rainfall record 2023 (2.52") (0.59+1.93) _ replaces 2.14" 1878 _ 1.93" not a daily record 22nd ^ 26th-27th 2.49" rain 2d 2013 (0.51+1.98) ____________________________________________________________________________

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

You can add in that Toronto had 12" of snow in this same storm, it largest October fall on record by a wide margin. Second largest was 5" on October 22, 1969.

Reminder to NYC participants to visit contest thread with or without costumes by 31st.

This is what Josh recently posted on X ... ... "This was the strongest of the 83 hurricanes I have encountered" ... with two pictures, one looking out at the eyewall and one inside the hotel kitchen as he references below ... My location (Crawford, a tiny beach town in St. Elizabeth Parish #Jamaica) took the full force of the inner right eyewall and may have seen the peak winds in this historic, record-smashing hurricane. First pic: as it started to get scary. Bone-rattling gusts were making roofs explode into clouds of lethal confetti. The grand palm tree out front was starting to bend obscenely—in a way I found unnatural. Second pic: after we bolted the door shut because it was getting too dangerous even to watch the storm. (I'd randomly ended up in the hotel's kitchen with a local family.) The hurricane's inner eyewall was a screaming white void. All I could see through the cracks in the shutters was the color white—accompanied by a constant, ear-splitting scream that actually caused pain. (Notice the woman in the pic holding her ears.) The scream occasionally got higher and angrier, and those extra-screechy screams made my eardrums pulse. Meanwhile, water was forcing in through every crack—under the floor and between the window slats. I remember shuddering at the thought of what was happening to the town—what this screaming white void was doing to people, homes, communities. My fears were well-founded. The impact in this part of coastal St. Elizabeth Parish is catastrophic. Wooden structures were completely mowed down and in some cases swept from their foundations. Some concrete structures collapsed. The well-built ones—like my hotel—survived, but even they had major roof, window, and door damage. The landscape has been stripped bare—the trees just sticks. The roads are blocked with rubble and utility poles. Nearby Black River—a unique old historical town right on the water—was smashed beyond recognition: historical sites destroyed, main streets filled with rubble, the town market twisted like a pretzel, even the regional hospital destroyed. It's a good thing I wasn't in my hotel room during the storm because one of the windows blew out, showering the bed with glass and wood. The hotel lost most of its roof, and several third-story rooms were smashed open. But in the lower flooors, those grand old concrete walls protected us. And so far I'm aware of only two deaths in Crawford—a fellow who had a heart attack at the school next door (his body was still in his car and unclaimed the next morning, a sad and disturbing sight), and a woman who drowned in the storm surge in Gallon Beach. While walking down the devastated streets of Black River, I ran into the Jamaican Member of Parliament for this region, @floydgreenja . He's a great dude and I appreciate that he already has a gameplan for turning this catastrophe into an opportunity—to build this region back better. And I vowed on the spot that I'm going to make it my mission to spread awareness of this catastrophe and get that aid flowing in. I'll be talking about MELISSA a lot over the coming months—because it is both a fascinating meteorological event and a human disaster that demands an international response. (And I swear an epic video is coming out of this.) = (location according to a respondent on X was Sandy Ground Hotel west of Crawford towards White House)

Well as you probably know there are not often tropical storms in the South Atlantic Ocean, I believe there have only been two in modern times, and that is probably down to the water temperatures rarely exceeding 25 C there, as well as the size of the basin (but it's larger than the Arabian Sea which manages a few). The weather in the glacial maximum must have been quite extraordinary in general, maybe there were a few hurricanes but confined to the tropical latitudes.

Here is that same table reformulated so that sunspot maximum years are always in year 10 of the table. This leads to row entries of different lengths. My protocol was to begin each row 9 years before the sunspot peak year and either add extra years or remove years as required. The extra years are placed in otherwise blank YR 6 and YR 7 of a 13-year collection that represents 11 years in most cases. <<< COUNTS in YEARS of 11-YEAR CYCLE (N Altantic basin) >>> Cycle starts __YR 01 _YR 02 _YR 03 _ YR 04 _YR 05 _ _YR 08 _YR 09 _YR 10 _YR 11 _YR 12 _YR 13__ Cycle ends 1851 ________ 6 3 1 __ 5 5 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 5 3 1 __ 5 4 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 0 __ 6 6 0 __ 8 7 1 __7 6 1 __ 8 6 0 __ 1861 1862 ________6 3 0 _ 9 5 0 __5 3 0 __ 7 3 0 __7 6 1 __ 9 7 1 ___ 4 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 11 10 2 _ 8 6 2 _5 4 0 __ 1871 1873 ________ 5 3 2 _ 7 4 0 __6 5 1 ___5 4 2 __8 3 1 _ 12 10 2__ 8 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __ 7 4 0 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 2 __ 1883 1884 ________ 4 4 1 _ 8 6 0 _12 10 4__19 11 2 _ 9 6 2 __ 9 6 0 __ 4 2 1 _ 10 7 1 __ 9 5 0 __12 10 5 __7 5 4 __ 1894 1895 ________ 6 2 0 _ 7 6 2 _ 6 3 0 __ 11 5 1 __10 5 2 __7 3 2 __13 6 0 __ 5 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 6 4 0 ___5 1 1 ___ 1905 1906 ________ 11 6 3 _ 5 0 0 _10 6 1 _ 12 6 4 _ 5 3 1 __ 6 3 0 ___ 7 4 1 __ 6 3 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 6 5 3 _ 15 10 5 __ 1916 1917 ________ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 1 _ 5 2 1 __ 5 4 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 5 3 1 ___ 9 4 1 __ 11 5 2 __ 4 1 0 __11 8 6 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1927 1928 ________ 6 4 1 __ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 2 __13 3 1 _ 15 6 4 _20 11 6 __13 7 1 __ 8 5 3 __17 7 1 __11 4 1 __ 9 4 2 ___ 1938 1939 ________ 6 3 1 __ 9 6 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 11 4 1 _ 10 5 2 _ 14 8 3 __11 5 2 __ 7 3 0 __10 5 2 __10 6 4 __16 7 3 ___ 1949 1950 ________16 11 6__12 8 3__11 5 2 __14 7 3_ 16 7 3 _ 13 9 4 __12 4 1 __ 8 3 2 _ 12 7 3 __14 7 2 __ 8 4 2 ___ 1960 1961 ________ 12 8 5 _ 7 4 0 _ 10 7 3 _ 13 7 5 _ 10 4 1 _ 15 7 3 _ 15 6 1 __ 8 5 0 _ 18 12 3__14 7 2 _ 13 6 1 ___ 1971 1972 ________ 7 3 0 __ 8 4 1 _ 11 4 2 __ 9 6 3 _ 10 6 2 __ 6 5 1 _ 12 5 2 __ 9 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __12 7 3 __ 6 2 1 ___ 1982 1983 ________ 4 3 1 _ 13 5 1 _ 11 7 3 __ 6 4 0 __ 7 3 1 __12 5 3 __11 7 2 __14 8 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 7 4 1 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1993 1994 ________ 7 3 0 _ 19 11 5 _13 9 6 __8 3 1 __14 10 3 _12 8 5 _ 15 8 3 _ 15 9 4 _12 4 2 _ 16 7 3 _ 15 9 6 ___ 2004 2005 _______28 15 7_ 10 5 2 _15 6 2 _16 8 5 __ 9 3 2 __19 12 5 _19 7 4 _ 19 10 2_ 14 2 0 _ 8 6 2 _ 11 4 2 ___ 2015 2016 _______ 15 7 4 _ 17 10 6 _15 8 2_ 18 6 3 _30 14 7_ 21 7 4 _14 8 2 _ 20 7 3 _ 18 11 5 _ 13 5 4_ (2026) ================= The means are now aligned with the most recent cycle so that year 10 is always the peak solar year. No year is counted twice and where not obviously aligned it is averaged in with closest solar equivalents. Years 1 and 2 in this analysis are 2 and 3 years after solar peaks (year 11 is one year after). Years 3 to 9 are counted from before solar peaks only, any years not included are then averaged into best fits. means _____ 8 5 2 __ 9 5 1 __ 8 5 2 __ 9 5 2 __ 12 7 3 _ 11 6 2 __ 9 5 1 ___ 9 6 1 __ 12 6 2 _ 9 5 2 _ 9 6 2 (1928-pres) 11 6 3 __13 7 2__ 11 6 3 _ 12 5 2 _ 14 7 3 _ 13 6 3 _ 12 6 2 _ 12 6 2 _ 14 7 2 _ 11 6 2 _ 13 6 2 While there are a few differences from the straight-line eleven year averages, these solar-oriented averages take on essentially the same pattern, like the solar maximum there seems to be a biennial second order frequency wave evident especially in the more active recent portion. Overall, it could be argued that these frequency counts are within the ranges allowable by random variability, there is no huge forcing evident. I would invite anyone with a hypothesis to advance it, as to why Atlantic hurricane frequency appears to peak at two opposite portions of the 11-year solar cycle whether robustly forced by actual solar data, or passively forced by the mean. I am aware that at solar maximum, heat energy from the Sun is generally a bit higher (despite the cooler sunspots, the more active solar wind accounts for this), and perhaps at solar minimum there could be an argument for stability of subtropical highs which cannot hurt the count. One final look at the situation ... here are the more active years placed against a stylized solar cycle ... x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][]1988-89xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1936[][][]xxx[][][][]1969x1780 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x x x x xxxxxxxxxxxxx1916[][]xxxxxx1893xx[][][][]1949xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x x x x x x xxxxxxxxxx1846[][]xxxx2011-12xxxxxxxxxxx[][][]2004xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x x x x x xxxxxxxxx[][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][]2005xxxxxxxxxx x x x x x x x x x x xxxx1954[][][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][][]1887xxxxxx x x x x x2020[][][]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][[][][][]xxxxxx1933 1878[]xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[][][][][][][][]1995 I would contend what this shows is that high climbers are all over the mountain scattered at random. (2011-12 and 1893 are placed within the mountain profile to represent near peak but lower altitude peaks of solar activity. I added 1846 and 1780 which are recognized to be "big seasons" outside the framework of my analysis otherwise. 1900 would be about where 1878 is situated.

Since we only have annual counts from 1851 on, and some more anecdotal reports on seasonal severity before 1850, it occurs to me that any given 11-year cycle of any origin will correlate with the solar variability cycle which has never strayed far from a regular 11-year pulse since about 1837 (before that it also kept to that sort of frequency after the long downturn of the Maunder except for a speeding up to 9-10 years late in the 18th century followed by a slowdown to 12-13 years in the Dalton minimum). So just for the sake of exploring that solar-neutral 11-year concept, I arbitrarily used this progression and worked out average counts ... peak of cycle (for whatever reason) 1849, 1860, 1871, 1882, 1893, 1904, 1915, 1926, 1937, 1948, 1959, 1970, 1981, 1992, 2003, 2014, 2025. The average position of these years in the somewhat variable 10.5 year solar cycle is at peak year plus one, the specific displacements being +1, 0, +1, -1, 0, -1, -2, -2, 0, +1, +2, +2, +2, +3, +4, +1, 0?? at end. This reflects the fact that the solar cycles picked up in frequency in the later 20th century and have recently returned to a longer-period average closer to 11 years in this less active (so far) century. It should be mentioned that the 1905 peak for solar activity was in reality a flat-topped low-moderate peak from 1905-07 and also the 1968 peak was very indistinct between 1967 and 1972, so these "displacements" are more approximate. And if one were to go back the peaks of this steady 11-year cycle are 1838, 1827, 1816, 1805, 1794, 1783, 1772, 1761, 1750, 1739, 1728, 1717, 1706 which also resembles the actual solar peaks except in the period before the Dalton minimum when again more intense cycles sped up (the actual peaks in this interval going back are 1837-38 (about equal), 1829-1830, 1816, 1801-04 (a weak flat-topped peak), 1787 (may have had a strong secondary around 1795), 1778, 1769, 1761, 1749-50, 1738, 1717, and 1705 (a weak peak coming out of the Maunder minimum). So here are the hurricane data re-arranged to fit this 11-year cycle; since the first year of data is 1851, the data start at year 1 of an 11-year cycle in which the modulation years are at year 10 (and the mean of solar maximum years at year 9). <<< COUNTS in YEARS of 11-YEAR CYCLE (N Altantic basin) >>> Cycle starts __YR 01 _YR 02 _YR 03 _ YR 04 _YR 05 _YR 06 _YR 07 _YR 08 _YR 09 _YR 10 _YR 11 __ Cycle ends 1851 ________ 6 3 1 __ 5 5 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 5 3 1 __ 5 4 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 0 __ 6 6 0 __ 8 7 1 __ 7 6 1 __ 8 6 0 __ 1861 1862 ________ 6 3 0 _ 9 5 0 __5 3 0 __ 7 3 0 __7 6 1 __ 9 7 1 ___ 4 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 11 10 2 _ 8 6 2 __ 5 4 0 __ 1872 1873 ________ 5 3 2 _ 7 4 0 __6 5 1 ___ 5 4 2 __8 3 1 _ 12 10 2__ 8 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __ 7 4 0 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 2 __ 1883 1884 ________ 4 4 1 _ 8 6 0 _12 10 4__19 11 2 _ 9 6 2 __ 9 6 0 __ 4 2 1 _ 10 7 1 __ 9 5 0 __12 10 5 __7 5 4 ___ 1894 1895 ________ 6 2 0 _ 7 6 2 _ 6 3 0 __ 11 5 1 __10 5 2 __7 3 2 __13 6 0 __ 5 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 6 4 0 ___5 1 1 ___ 1905 1906 ________ 11 6 3 _ 5 0 0 _10 6 1 _ 12 6 4 _ 5 3 1 __ 6 3 0 ___ 7 4 1 __ 6 3 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 6 5 3 _ 15 10 5 __ 1916 1917 ________ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 1 _ 5 2 1 __ 5 4 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 5 3 1 ___ 9 4 1 __ 11 5 2 __ 4 1 0 __11 8 6 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1927 1928 ________ 6 4 1 __ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 2 __13 3 1 _ 15 6 4 _20 11 6 __13 7 1 __ 8 5 3 __17 7 1 __11 4 1 __ 9 4 2 ___ 1938 1939 ________ 6 3 1 __ 9 6 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 11 4 1 _ 10 5 2 _ 14 8 3 __11 5 2 __ 7 3 0 __10 5 2 __10 6 4 __16 7 3 ___ 1949 1950 ________16 11 6__12 8 3__11 5 2 __14 7 3_ 16 7 3 _ 13 9 4 __12 4 1 __ 8 3 2 _ 12 7 3 __14 7 2 __ 8 4 2 ___ 1960 1961 ________ 12 8 5 _ 7 4 0 _ 10 7 3 _ 13 7 5 _ 10 4 1 _ 15 7 3 _ 15 6 1 __ 8 5 0 _ 18 12 3__14 7 2 _ 13 6 1 ___ 1971 1972 ________ 7 3 0 __ 8 4 1 _ 11 4 2 __ 9 6 3 _ 10 6 2 __ 6 5 1 _ 12 5 2 __ 9 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __12 7 3 __ 6 2 1 ___ 1982 1983 ________ 4 3 1 _ 13 5 1 _ 11 7 3 __ 6 4 0 __ 7 3 1 __12 5 3 __11 7 2 __14 8 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 7 4 1 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1993 1994 ________ 7 3 0 _ 19 11 5 _13 9 6 __8 3 1 __14 10 3 _12 8 5 _ 15 8 3 _ 15 9 4 _12 4 2 _ 16 7 3 _ 15 9 6 ___ 2004 2005 _______28 15 7_ 10 5 2 _15 6 2 _16 8 5 __ 9 3 2 __19 12 5 _19 7 4 _ 19 10 2_ 14 2 0 _ 8 6 2 _ 11 4 2 ___ 2015 2016 _______ 15 7 4 _ 17 10 6 _15 8 2_ 18 6 3 _30 14 7_ 21 7 4 _14 8 2 _ 20 7 3 _ 18 11 5 _ 13 5 4_ (2026) ================= means _____ 8 5 2 __ 9 5 1 __ 8 5 2 __11 5 2 __ 11 6 2 _ 12 7 3 _ 11 6 1 __ 10 6 1 __ 11 6 2 _ 10 6 3 _ 9 5 2 (1928-pres) 11 6 3 __11 6 2__ 10 6 3 _ 12 5 2 _ 13 6 3 _ 15 8 4 _ 14 6 2 _ 12 6 2 _ 13 7 2 _ 12 6 2 _ 11 5 2 ANALYSIS This independent 11-year cycle seems very close to random to me, if we say the long term mean is 10 6 2, most years in the cycle are within 1 in all aspects of the count, and if we say the more recent (1928 to present) average is 12 7 2, there is a bit of a peak in the years generally aligned with solar minima (years 5-7 in this cycle), a trend that seems to be increasing slightly but not in a very significant way. So this supports the contention that N Atlantic tropical activity peaks slightly every eleven years and whether by coincidence (an independent cause and effect from solar) or by virtue of the general overlap and a solar cause and effect, this peak occurs near sunspot minimum. I also counted the years with three or more major hurricanes, the frequency there is 5 3 5 4 4 8 2 3 3 7 4 This shows more of a 5.5 year cycle with peaks at solar minimum and solar maximum. I will reformulate the table above to coincide exactly with solar peaks but I don't think it is going to show a different outcome. ...

Would say the core is likely to pass very close to Santiago de Cuba which is a city of over half a million people. It will be a diagonal landfall so the impacts on Guantanamo province further east will also be very strong. And then it's on to Great Inagua in Bahamas. They could have a cat-3 impact by early morning.

Looks like the track has been deflected towards the ENE and the core is heading for Gitmo. It is also visibly accelerating now, will probably make landfall in Cuba within 3-4 hours. As bad as that was for western and central Jamaica, can you imagine the carnage if the core had moved across Kingston and that part of the country?

When they say "ever recorded" they forget that in 1780 there were two hurricanes that may have been even stronger, one hit Savanna-la-Mar with a 20' tidal surge (on Oct 1), and another one around the 8th-9th killed multiple thousands of people on Barbados, Guadeloupe and Martinique. Now obviously back then there would have been little warning and people were living in relatively primitive buildings, but one has to wonder what the meteorological readings for either of those would have been. Also Camille in 1969 was quite intense at its core at landfall, and while the wind speed record may be based on overall hurricane data, I was under the impression that Andrew had some tornadic wind streaks that may have been above these record values being quoted, and those happened to hit a populated area at sea level.

Looks to be in the zone where eastern eyewall might just clear him for moments, or he may stay in the eyewall without a clearance, center of eye track likely to be 10 to 15 miles west; as you know this means he is going to see the strongest winds and the surge there will likely be at its max also, think he may be above that but only just.

Looking at google earth there are very few settlements inland along the track this seems most likely to take, which is approximately White House to Falmouth. The terrain rises to about 3000' but a large portion of the interior is an area known as the Cockpits which are limestone depressions and karst topography, there are perhaps a thousand people at most living in the 40-mile wide stretch where core conditions will come and go, then the exit over Falmouth by which time possibly the intensity will be down to cat-3. It's very close to Montego Bay but they will probably have the slightly less violent western eyewall or just outside of that, on the current track. Josh is located hopefully inland as Crawford seems to consist of two parts, one on the inland highway and one being a housing development closer to the ocean. Even at the inland road the elevation is only about 10 meters. It looks to be a wooded area with better construction than some parts of rural Jamaica. The larger town of Black River is a few miles east of Crawford, and Santa Cruz inland may be in the forward eyewall. Those places are facing considerable if not total destruction; this small hurricane intense core situation reminds me of Andrew when it devastated portions of Homestead FL in 1992, as people have been commenting, F5 tornado conditions are being reported in the eyewall. As bad as this is going to be, there were worse possible tracks in terms of total damage potential and consequent human tolls, 25-50 miles west would have been a lot worse, and 50-75 miles east would have brought these peak conditions into the greater Kingston area where I would imagine it's pretty rough but will perhaps peak at cat-2 intensity or less.

I was looking at some details of Jamaica's population and geography, would say if they have to take a hit from the core of this hurricane, the central third is perhaps less populated than the western third and certainly less than the eastern third. There is a central bisecting track that might spare Montego Bay, Negril and Savanna-la-Mar from worst case wind and surge damage, while keeping Kingston also out of the core. If it does go a bit further west and makes landfall around Savanna-la-Mar, unlike most of the south coast as well as west to northwest coasts, the land around there is very flat for miles inland. The town is on a peninsula that rarely rises above 5 metres asl. Negril is a bit more hilly and most of the town is well above surge limits (also the exposure is not as conducive to a major surge). There are parts of the south coast that are quite rugged and uninhabited, there are small towns across most of the inland south but the total population looks to be perhaps 5% of the total of Jamaica if the core were to take that track. The western third is a little hilly and the central third more so, but those higher Blue Mountains are all to the northeast of Kingston. I would not want to be anywhere near this monster storm but Josh does, anyone know where he chose to set up?

175 mph = 288 km/hr = 288,000 m/ hr = 200 m/sec = 100 m in half a second. Took Usain Bolt 9.6 seconds to run that far.

This may be how the Great Red Spot formed.