Roger Smith

Preliminary and needing to be checked from later data, but Toronto (downtown) may have had its heaviest January one-day snowfall ever (since 1843 when snowfall records begin). Reports are in the 18-20 inch range. This was 80% lake enhancement boosting a wider 5" synoptic scale snowfall. The previous record was 44 cm (meas 16.6" at the time) set Jan 23, 1966 (not the later coastal blizzard on 1-29). A very close second was 40 cm Jan 2, 1999. After that one and two later moderate falls, Toronto had its greatest snow depth of 65 cm (26 in). The current one-day record for any month was 19.5" (about 47 cm) Dec 11, 1944. February and March also have higher one-day records than January but that may not be the case after this new record is verified.

I took a blend of the Eduggs and the DonS models and assumed the NAM might be right about the sleet. But I think my broken abacus was a problem.

How is he getting out?

For downtown Toronto the old January daily record was 16.6" set on Jan 23, 1966. The one-day record for all months is 19.5" from Dec 11, 1944. Two-day record I believe is 23.0" Dec 25-26 1872. So yes this looks like an all-timer for January 1d for Toronto City (records began 1840, snowfall 1843). I have a thread on Toronto and New York City climate records in the climate change forum. Will wait for further data before updating and will report back on exact details, there is still a reporting station in downtown Toronto but they only give precip and snow depth obs. I have been going by those and using best estimates on recent snowfall amounts since actual daily snowfall reports stopped happening in 2017. Looks like this was 80% lake enhancement and 20% synoptic scale which is similar to the 1872 storm which took place during a frigid spell of record low temperatures with NYC also seeing 18" of snow on Dec 26th (1872). Last February Toronto was flirting with Feb 1846 snowfall records. March 1870 is the snowiest month of all time with four big falls that added up to over 60 inches. Also the record snow depth for Toronto downtown is 65 cm (around 26 inches) set in January 1999 after a number of snowstorms, including another 15-16 incher on Jan 2 but the record was not reached until nearly mid-January. Famously the Canadian army was called in to shovel the snow on that occasion. I have seen 30 inches of snow on the ground north of Toronto as recently as April 3, 1975 after a big storm in that region.

Offshore low still deepening, Nantucket 54SE was gusting to ESE 46 knots for a while, backed off a bit last hour, temp there is low 40s. Looks to me like 10-12" more could easily fall in many parts of MA and ne CT, 5-10" more further west. I was surprised at the low ratios in early snowfall reports from airports, contrasting with very high ratios in NY and NJ early reports. Is that something to do with ocean effect atmospheric chemistry?

Making a run at the daily precip record of 1.80" in 1978 (for Jan 25), the warm sector phase of the famous Great Lakes blizzard of Jan 25-26 1978. That may have included a bit of snow or sleet but was mostly if not all rain in NYC. Also the snowfall is now (I think) ahead of the old record value of 10.0" from 1905.

Looking at offshore buoys, temps mid-30s about 30-50 miles south of Long Island south shore with winds 25 to 40 mph (40 to 60 southeast of Nantucket). Pressure falling steadily towards predicted central pressures near 998 mbs. If this had deepened to 970 like some coastals have done, can you imagine the snow totals? 30-40 inches easily. I think what we're seeing is a modern climate version of the Blizzard of Feb 1899 which also followed severe cold and dropped 14 to 20 inches from DC to Boston. The one difference would be that storm evolved more like the March 1993 storm from the eastern Gulf up the Carolina coast, and had no inland primary, just the coastal bomb. The blizzard of 1888 also followed a similar track for the coastal portion but again had no inland primary. I wonder if Don has any way of finding any other storm that dropped 10" of snow in Columbus OH, NYC and BOS (if those numbers verify, CMH already has). As to storms that took place in frigid temps, blizzards of 1899 and 1857 come to mind, also Dec 26 1872, an 18" snowstorm at both New York City and Toronto (lake effect there mostly) with record cold in place over the region. I imagine the sleet bomb with that one was confined to the Delmarva and maybe far southern NJ.

Hard to imagine but Jan 24 1967 (68, 54) was fifty degrees warmer than yesterday was in NYC, and sixty degrees warmer than Jan 24, 1882 (6, -6). Jan 25, 1967 is still the warmest day in Toronto's now 186 years of January records (61 F).

In 1920 a strong arctic high settled over the region on Jan 31-Feb 1. Temperatures fell below zero overnight setting records, but both days had highs in the low 20s, probably midnight highs at both ends of the cold spell. Then a coastal moved slowly north and Feb 3-5 all had over 1" of liquid and over 5" of snow each day. I would imagine the mix was similar to the current storm except that it lasted longer. I've seen one old archived photo of horse-drawn carts and old-fashioned cars semi-stuck in a goopy looking mess but I wonder if there are other news reports from that series of events. The storm brought a very cold two weeks to a close and transitioned to a more average sort of pattern in Feb 1920. Another historical note, today's NYC record of 10.0" from 1905 was part of a two-day total of 11.0" and that storm was also a coastal low. Going back 48 years, residents of the Great Lakes region were told by forecasters to expect a big snowfall the next day, but the models of the time showed a deep low tracking from Alabama to Lake Ontario; nobody was quite prepared for the Cleveland superbomb result (955 mb at Port Huron-Sarnia with low moving due north into Lake Huron). At London ON, winds gusted to 80 mph from the south but it was an arctic wraparound! Temps had dropped from near 40F overnight to 20 F. The storm dropped 15-30" of wind-blown snow over most of Ohio, Michigan and southwest to northeast ON. Toronto had much less snow (about 4" on a SSW wind of 40-60 mph) and saw temperatures drop 15 F deg in two hours from 8 to 10 a.m. on the 26th. I was actually in a weather office plotting maps during this storm, to support air quality forecasts made by the company. My parking spot (in northwest Toronto) was occupied by the housing for the building's air conditioning unit, luckily for me it arrived a few minutes before I did that morning. Jan 26 is a date for huge Great Lakes storms, there was the Chicago blizzard of 1967 and a monster lake effect storm in 1971 that trapped hundreds of people in central Ontario for up to a week. During the 1967 storm, both Toronto and NYC had record highs on Jan 25 but in Ontario the warmth was followed by a sleet and snow storm lasting two days; eventually we went from 60 degrees F to 10 inches of frozen snow on the ground. It then stayed very cold for about six weeks.

Would expect it to get increasingly foggy this afternoon as temperatures rise to mid-high 20s with sleet transitioning to freezing drizzle, ice accretions should be fairly minimal, then later this evening and overnight a colder trend returns and snow grains will start to fall mixed with light sleet, before snow flurries in 10-15 F temps by morning. A further inch of snow could accumulate eventually on top of a frozen slush. This will not apply to parts of DE and se MD where temps will rise to near 40 F and straight rain will fall for a brief interval.

71/69 New Orleans and 17/10 Little Rock, 1006 mb low near Jackson MS. Coastal low looks to be in formative stages east of C Hat where it's 1019 mb and 48F. Below freezing inland as far south as central GA.

FLORIDA EXTREME COLD WARNING __ Temperatures may drop below 60 degrees. You may need a sweater or a light jacket. DON'T RISK YOUR LIFE pack a sweater or jacket.

This post will later show the scoring summary for January. After this post, enter your February forecasts, deadline Feb 1st 06z.

Beginning to think one of those billionaires got the crystals up into the stratosphere (jk).

Would you expect a zone of enhanced amounts extending west from Long Island Sound across Bronx and Yonkers into n NJ? Looking at the synoptics model and real time I would expect that enhanced zone to be oriented almost E-W, possibly 260 deg? Also that can generate thunder-snow within squall cells.

Memo to snow gods ... don't need all my residuals tomorrow ... but do what you have to do!!! (my airport predictions for 1/24-26 total DCA 5.5, IAD 8.2, BWI 8.8, RIC 3.7. ... I need about twice those amounts for the contest but let's be optimistic and say there will be more to come) Would be happy to get it all in this storm though.

Not to be too critical of the thread but the severe cold part should make the dates read 1/24 to 1/26.

My bingo card is filling up, just marked off "this storm is a fail" 12 hours before precip begins, and also "results will depend on what happens." Dya think?

Not far from -40 in n WI and below -40 in n.e. Ontario, in fact below -30 F west of Ottawa. This storm is going to be feeding off an inflow of extremely cold air at least for its first portions. The ratios in the snow first sampled at Dodge City KS look like 19:1 (3.4" from 0.18" liquid). That may drop off a bit as the storm adds Gulf moisture to the Pacific moisture it started with, but that's a good sign for amounts with first portion of the snowfall tomorrow.

This seems promising, 19:1 ratios in the first sampling of snow (Dodge City KS had 3.4" from 0.18" l.e.) This was with temperatures within 3 deg or zero F during the snowfall event. I would expect this to reduce to 16:1 over Midwest and 13:1 over interior northeast but maybe not that rapid a modification of rates.

-32F in parts of eastern Ontario and -36F in n WI, this high is going to feed extreme cold into the storm until the coastal bombs (to some extent, not that robust) ... I am thinking 20-25 inch potential in parts of e MA and 15-20 across n half of CT. Think there will be some reductions by sleet near Long Island Sound and across se MA south of Plymouth to New Bedford. Even so, 10-12" before the change there. Remember that storm (think it was Dec 2020) when Binghamton NY had 40" -- I wonder if there will be a location that gets that sort of outcome with this one? I would think New England rather than upstate NY if so (probably not 40" but perhaps one local 30"). Not too far from ORH would be my guess as to where that might happen.

It has begun -- moderate snow at Dodge City KS, temp zero F. Moderate sleet near Wichita Falls TX, temp 27 F. My current take is very sharp snowfall cutoff close to I-95, hope I am wrong by 25-50 miles (south) but somewhere in that general area, gradients of 2 or 3 inches total snowfall every 10 miles until you reach an all-snow zone something like Frederick to York to Allentown. North of that, 12-16 local 20. So across DC region, it could be 8" south to 12" north, or just as easily 4" to 8". I will go with median values there and say 6" near DCA and 10" near IAD. Around 8-10" BWI to 12-15" Westminster. Would love to see this verify along GFS lines instead but often, the result of model disparity and model range is a weighted consensus. If the ECM stays near average of GFS and NAM output, then it will most likely do better than both of them. Should be a very impactful storm regardless of details. Expect thunder-snow or sleet mid-afternoon Sunday about when coastal begins to deepen.

Looks like March 12, 1888. Good luck with that one.

I think what's needed is that GIF with the guy and girl walking along, he's checking out the hot (GFS) babe but in a twist, she (NAM) is checking out the Euro. And RGEM is walking along reading his I-phone and crashing into a lamp-post. Anybody?

Still thinking Allentown e.n.e. to n NJ is the jackpot with 16-20 inch potential. Expecting very tight snowfall gradients near PHL to MMU, amounts could range from 3" to 12" over relatively short distances (n-s) in that zone. Given the location of PHL airport its total may be considerably less than a lot of people who live in northern suburbs. I guess you are used to that anyway. I don't believe both the GFS and the NAM could be exactly right so the result will be some sort of compromise between them ... would go with 50-50 blend, then if ECM is not close to that, further 50-50 of the blend with ECM. By the time I had that worked out, I could compare it to reported totals. Anyway, expect some very sharp gradients in this storm, and some thunder with the snow (or sleet) towards mid-afternoon Sunday.