Roger Smith

They don't change clocks in SK (Saskatchewan), on CST all year round. And there's one town in BC (Creston) on MST all year. I believe Arizona is also on MST all year.

Jeb, if you were there, you would be going on a Jebswim cuz walking just wouldn't work. This is like being in two simultaneous Buffalo blizzards, or 1888 times three. I need a cold shower just thinking about seven feet of snow. Gotta settle for one measly foot here.

http://weather.gov/sto/MapPNS Map of reported snow totals in Sierra Nevada.

It should be noted that today's record high was relatively easy to break, it was the lowest record high of the month and lower than quite a few February records. I will start a new tradition and post full NYC daily records for each month around the 1st or 2nd if I remember, This is not work I just did, it's in my Toronto/NYC climate study in the climate change forum. Will revise any broken records at end of day when official climate reports are final. <<<< MARCH RECORDS NYC >>>> DATE ____ high max ___ high min _____ low max _____ low min ______ max prec ___max snow __ max 2d snow Mar 01 ___ 73 1972 ___ 54 2017 ______ 16 1886 _____ 4 1869 ________ 2.95 1914RS_13.5 1914 ____13.5 1914* Mar 02 ___ 72 1972 ___ 50 1972, 91 _____ 21 1884 _____ 9 1891 ________ 2.41 2007R__10.0 1896 ____14.5 1914^ Mar 03 ___ 68 2024^___49 2020 ______26 1943,50,2009 _11 2003^______ 2.25 1906R___12.5 1960____12.5 1960* Mar 04 ___ 70 1974 ___ 51 1880 ______ 20 1873 _____ 6 1872 _________1.65 1977R___6.0 1893,1917__ 14.5 1960 Mar 05 ___ 72 1880 ___ 50 1979 ______ 10 1872 _____ 3 1872 _________1.81 1920RS__8.6 1981 ____ 8.6 1981* Mar 06 __ 68 1935, 2022 _50 2011 ____17 1901 _____ 5 1872 _________2.63 1979R___7.6 1916 ____ 8.6 1981** Mar 07 __ 74 1946, 2022 _51 2009 ____20 1913 _____ 7 1890 ________ 1.87 1967R___6.0 1870 ____ 7.7 1915 (6.9+0.8) Mar 08 ___ 76 1987 ___ 54 1987 ______ 23 1883 _____ 8 1883 _________1.78 1941S__15.7 1941 ____ 18.1 1941 Mar 09 ___ 77 2016 ___ 48 2000 ______24 1996 _____11 1996 _________1.82 1998R___5.3 1928 ____ 15.7 1941** Mar 10 ___ 79 2016 ___ 63 2016 _______28 1987 _____12 1929 _________1.62 1994R___6.0 1907 ____6.0 1907* Mar 11 ___ 73 1977 ___ 50 1967, 77 _____ 28 1885 _____14 1960 _________2.94 1901R___3.8 1896 ___ 6.0 1907** Mar 12 ___71 1890, 2012_ 52 2021/ _______26 1900 _____ 8 1888 ________ 2.33 1962R__16.5 1888 ____16.5 1888* Mar 13 ___ 85 1990 ___ 54 2012 _______12 1888 _____ 6 1888 _________ 3.86 2010R__10.2 1993___ 19.5 1888 Mar 14 ___ 75 1946 ___ 51 1953 _______28 1892 _____12 1888 _________ 1.97 2017RS__7.6 2017____ 10.6 1993 Mar 15 ___ 77 1990 ___ 49 1913, 2019 ___24 1900 ____ 14 1993 (33) ___ 1.81 1912R ___6.0 1906 ____ 7.6 2017** Mar 16 ___ 82 1990 ___ 55 1990 _______20 1911 _____13 1911 _________ 2.03 2007RS^__8.4 1896____12.0 1896 Mar 17 ___ 75 1945 ___ 53 1990 _______ 25 1885,1900 __ 9 1916 _________ 1.42 1968R___3.5 1877 ____ 8.4 1896** Mar 18 ___ 77 1989, 2011 _51 2011 _______20 1967 _____7 1916 (24) _____ 3.10 1983R___7.1 1892 ____ 8.0 1892 Mar 19 ___ 76 1918 ___ 55 2012 _______ 22 1877 _____ 8 1967 __________ 2.19 1881R___7.8 1956 ____11.6 1956 Mar 20 ___ 83 1945 ___ 57 1948 _______21 1885 _____11 1885 _________ 1.93 1913R___4.7 1958 ____ 7.8 1956** Mar 21 ___ 84 1921 ___ 57 2012 _______ 21 1885 _____10 1885 _________ 2.21 1980R___8.2 2018 ____11.8 1958 Mar 22 ___ 78 2012^___57 1948 _______ 22 1885 _____12 1885 _________ 3.44 1977R___9.0 1967 ____ 9.8 1967 Mar 23 ___ 76 1923,2012_ 58 2012 _____ 20 1888 ____13 1875, 1934 _____1.60 1929R___4.3 1896 ____ 9.0 1967** Mar 24 ___ 76 1988 ___ 52 1903 _______26 1888 _____12 1888 _________ 2.05 1989R___1.2 1956 ____ 4.5 1896 Mar 25 ___ 79 1963^___61 1913 _______ 30 1873,78 __13 1878 _________ 4.25 1876R___0.5 1876,99__ 1.2 1956**^ Mar 26 ___ 82 2021/_ 52 1986, 2021 _ 35 1872,1937,47_20 1960 (35,36 25th,26th)_1.42 1913R__1.2 1924___1.2 1924* Mar 27 ___ 83 1998 ___ 61 1949 _______ 30 1894 _____ 20 1894 _______ 1.79 1919R ___ 1.0 1886 ____ 1.2 1924** Mar 28 ___ 84 1945^___ 63 1998 _______33 2022*_____13 1923 ________ 2.98 2005R___1.5 1984 ____ 1.5 1984* Mar 29 ___ 86 1945^___ 62 1998^_______29 1887 _____10 1923 (32) ___ 2.03^1984RS__4.0 1970 ____ 4.1 1996 (0.3+3.8) Mar 30 ___ 82 1998^___ 59 1998 _______ 31 1884 _____16 1887 (33) ___ 2.45 2010R___4.5 1883 ____ 4.5 1883* Mar 31 ___ 86 1998 ____ 66 1998 _______34 1923 ____ 14 1923 _______ 2.20 1934R___2.8 1890 ____ 4.5 1883** -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- Numbers in brackets beside record low minima (e.g. 24F mar 18) are daily maxima of same (or adjacent) date as record lows, that did not set a low max record, to give an indication of the severity of the cold. In a few cases these could be early ("midnight" highs). the 2d snow records are for (previous date + date record tabulated) ... * following 2d snow ... indicates all snow fell on that date alone. ** following 2d snow ... indicates all snow fell on previous date only. (other cases include two easurable amounts) Note, precip records are followed by R, S or RS depending on whether all rain, all snow, or a mix. ^ notes above for March (includes a few near-miss values) 2nd _ also 2d snow (8.3" 2009 1.8+6.5) 3rd _ previous record 65F 1991. ... 2024 min 48F fell one deg below 2020 record. 3rd _ Low min 11 also 1925,38,43,50,62 (and 2003) ... only six-way tie in all data 12th _ 52F 2021 replaces 50F 1898 16th _ 2007 prec incl 5.5" snow 22nd _ also max 77F 1938 25th _ also max 75F 1910 25th _ cold rain 1912 could have incl sleet, 1-5" snow, missing snow data in NYC data base 26th / _ new record 82F max 2021 replaces 76F 1922. 28th _ max 79F 1946, 29th max 78F 1946, 29th min 60 1945F, 57 1946F 28th _ low max 33F 2022 replaced 34F 1893. ... also 1.4" snow 1919 29th _ 1984 prec record included 1.8" snow, 30th _ also max 78F 1910

Location?

Table of forecasts for March 2024 Forecaster __________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN_PHX _SEA RJay _______________________________ +6.0 _+6.0 _+6.0 __ +6.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 _-0.8 __0.0 rainsucks ___________________________+4.7 _+5.3 _+5.5 __ +7.5 _+2.0 _+2.4 ___+2.5 _-1.0 _+0.7 Roger Smith ________________________+3.6 _+4.5 _+6.2 __ +7.0 _+4.5 _+3.0 __ +1.5 _-1.0 _-0.4 DonSutherland1 ____________________+3.5 _+4.8 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+1.8 _+0.9 __ -0.5 _-2.0 _+0.2 wxallannj ___________________________+3.1 _+3.6 _+3.9 __ +2.8 _+2.2 _+2.0 __ +0.4 _-1.1 _ -1.5 Tom ________________________________+2.8 _+3.1 _+3.2 __ +3.5 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +1.6 _+0.9 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ______________________+2.8 _+3.0 _+3.1 __ +3.2 _+1.7 _+1.8 __ +0.5 _-0.9 _+0.1 hudsonvalley21 _____________________+2.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 __ +2.7 _+1.3 _+1.6 __ +0.9 _+0.1 _+0.3 BKViking ____________________________+2.2 _+2.3 _+2.4 __ +2.0 _+1.1 _+1.2 __ +0.5 _+0.1 _+0.3 so_whats_happening _______________+2.1 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +4.4 _+0.8 _+0.1 ___ -0.8 _-2.3 _-0.6 RodneyS ___________________________ +1.6 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +1.3 _+0.4 _+1.3 ___ -0.5 _-1.5 _-2.1 Scotty Lightning ____________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 wxdude64 __________________________+0.8 _+1.4 _+1.7 __ +0.9 _-0.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.3 _-0.8 _+1.6 Normal ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Persistence (Feb 2024) _____________+4.4 _+4.2_ +3.4 __+10.7 _+4.6 _+4.2 __+4.9 _+1.5 _+0.3 ========================================== Normal is colder than all forecasters for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD.

Katabatic posted pictures of snow in Sierra Nevada on mid-Atlantic forum (in current discobs). Basically a two-storey building is disappearing under snow! We got 8" up here in the past 24 hours, and it forms our secondary seasonal peak of 12" after a few days near 2 feet in early January. In between we lost almost all by mid-Feb, and only recently began to gain snow pack again. It's around an 18" base in some higher locations outside town. Drove through Cascades recently and same low pack in evidence, 2 feet at a few upslope locations, less than 6" on eastern slopes, and bare ground in Okanagan valley until recent snowfalls.

Getting leftovers of snow locally, about 8" fell since 03z ... last winter the peak snow depth was on today's date (26") but today's fall only takes us from 4" to 12" and our peak was about 20" in early January. (Locally = 150 N Spokane WA basically, just over Canadian border). Part of me would like to see the 10-15 feet in Sierras (eventually) but we'll settle for being able to get out of our house. Katabatic, if you read this, would you possibly consider posting a thread of your pictures on central/western forum? Or just post in existing winter thread (I saw your post there). I will mention your pictures here. A-Wx has no active members in California or PNW (besides me), but a few around CO-WY region.

Four Seasons Contest __ Winter 2023-24 Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 FORECASTER ___________________ DEC ___ JAN-FEB ___ TOTAL ___ Points wxallannj ________________________ 576 ______ 1160 ______ 1736 ______10 DonSutherland 1 _________________482 ______ 1042 ______ 1524 ______ 7 RodneyS _________________________426 ______ 1071 ______ 1497 ______ 6 so_whats_happening ____________444 ______ 1043 ______ 1487 ______ 5 hudsonvalley21 __________________442 ______ 1008 ______ 1450 ______ 4 ___ Consensus ___________________380 ______ 1028 ______ 1408 ______3.3 RJay _____________________________464 _______ 927 ______ 1391 ______ 3 __ (974) (1438) before late pen _ Con would be 2.8 BKViking ________________________ 336 ______ 1000 ______ 1336 ______ 2 Scotty Lightning _________________328 _______ 856 ______ 1184 ______ 1 rainsucks ________________________ -- -- _____ 1111 _______ 1111 _______ 1 wxdude64 _______________________206 ______ 892 ______ 1098 ______ 1 Tom _____________________________ 310 _______ 728 ______ 1038 ______ 1 ___ Normal ________________________192 ______ 810 ______ 1002 ______ 1 Roger Smith _____________________294 _______ 499 _______ 793 ______ 1 Stormchaser Chuck _____________ -- -- ______ 792 _______ 792 ______ 1 Rhino16 _________________________ -- -- ______ 747 _______ 747 _______ 1 ===================== Persistence (Nov 2023) __________338 ______ 634 ______ 972 ______ 1

Toronto (downtown location 1840-2024) also recorded its warmest February (+1.5 C) edging out 1998, and the Central England Temperature (CET) series recorded second warmest 7.8 C just below record of 7.9 (1779). This data set runs 1659 to present. CET also recorded warmest Feb daily mean of 13.7 C. (15 Feb, broke record 12.8 set 4 Feb 2004) as well as a new record warmest daily min in Feb (11.1 C). Feb 2019 retains records for warmest daily max. It was also tied warmest winter season at Toronto (+1.30) tied 2001-02. CET winter was tied 4th warmest (6.5 C) as January was close to average (Dec 2023 mild). Winters warmer are 2015-16 (6.8 C), 1868-69 (6.7 C) and 1833-34 (6.6 C). 2023-24 tied 1988-89 and 2006-07. http://metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_seasonal.txt Another new CET record was warmest 31d interval all 31 days within Jan-Feb, set 21 or 22 Jan to 20 or 21 Feb (8.3 C) ... previous record was 8.0 C set 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. The warmest January (calendar) for CET is 7.6 (1916). Their warmest Dec is also 2015 (9.6 C).

Last call before I start up my penalizer.

=== === .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2024 ==== .......... === === FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj _______________120 _118 _146 __ 384 __ 94 _142 _ 66 __ 302 _ 686 __ 112 _176 _186 __474 _____1160 rainsucks _______________184 _194 _178__ 556 __103 _104 _ 56 __ 263 _ 819 __ 34 _110 _148 __ 292 _____ 1111 RodneyS ________________ 68 _108 _120 __ 296 __129 _120 _ 94 __ 343 _ 639 __110 _144 _178 __432 ____ 1071 so_whats_happening ___ 122 _112 _138 __ 372 __ 99 _128 _ 60 __ 287 _ 659 __ 94 _128 _162 __ 384 ____ 1043 DonSutherland1 _________116 _110 _130 __ 356 __120 _134 _ 74 __ 328 _ 684 __ 98 _158 _102 __ 358 _____1042 ___ Consensus _________ 112 _100_122 __ 334 __120_138 _ 64 __322 _ 656 __ 56 _158 _158 __ 372 _____1028 hudsonvalley21 _________126 _ 98 _124 __ 348 __104 _126 _ 78 __ 308 _ 656 __ 38 _132 _182 __ 352 _____1008 BKViking ________________130 _116 _136 __ 382 __ 86 _126 _ 52 __ 264 _ 646 ___58 _158 _138 __ 354 _____1000 RJay ____________________ 131 _114 _131 __ 376 __ 97 _ 110 _ 16 __ 223 _ 599 __ 76 _133 _119 __ 328 ____927 (974)* wxdude64 _______________54 _ 66 _ 92 __ 212 __ 112_ 122 _ 74 __ 308 _ 520 __ 70 _130 _172 __ 372 _____ 892 Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 60 _ 58 __ 214 __ 58 _130 _ 68 __ 256 _ 470 __ 42 _160 _184 __ 386 _____ 856 Normal __________________ 66 _ 50 _ 68 __ 184 __ 78 _134 _ 58 __ 270 _ 454 __ 32 _150 _174 __ 356 _____ 810 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 68 _ 98 _128 __ 294 __110 _ 00 _ 00 __ 110 _ 404 __ 62 _190 _136 __ 388 _____ 792 Rhino16 __________________50 _ 22 _ 36 __ 108 __103 _118 _ 56 __ 277 _ 385 __ 48 _158 _156 __ 362 _____ 747 Tom _____________________62 _ 44 _ 68 __ 174 __ 46 _ 104 _ 50 __ 200 _ 374 __ 42 _160 _152 __ 354 _____ 728 Roger Smith _____________44 _ 24 _ 32 __ 100 __ 98 _ 95 __ 22 __ 215 _ 315 __ 20 __ 98 _ 66 __ 184 _____ 499 * (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would not affect ranks) Persistence _____________124 _134 _158 __ 416 __ 10 _ 72 _ 02 __ 084 _ 500 __ 00 _ 50 _ 84 __ 134 _____ 634 ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 0 rainsucks ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 ___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 12 qualified (ten for warmest, two for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ________________ Jan _ Feb ____ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 ____ 6-0 wxdude64 ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 DonSutherland1 _______________0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0 Scotty Lightning ______________ 0-0 _ 2*-0___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0 RodneyS ______________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0 wxallannj ______________________0-0 _ 1*-0____ 1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0 ___ Consensus ________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 1-0 BKViking ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 ____ 0-1 Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 0-2 _ 0-0____ 0-2 RJay, Tom, RogerS, Rhino16, swh __0-0 _ 0-0____ 0-0

+3.6 _ +4.5 _ +6.2 __ +7.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.0 __ +1.5 _ -1.0 _ -0.4

Those mystery snow forecasts must be based on the premise that the arctic cold front, trailing a broken squall line now near Albany by 1-2 hours, will develop a significant line of convection too, and that will be all snow falling at high rates for an hour or so. Otherwise I would have expected a dry interval when temperatures begin to fall starting after a few flurries along the cold front, and sunny skies all day tomorrow with brisk westerly winds and possibly a few snowflakes falling from broken cumulus. I would guess 0.1" to 0.3" could fall in some places with the arctic front and upslope effects in parts of VT could increase it to 2" locally. Squall line could be hit or miss, potential for brief gusts to 60 but some places could top out at 40.

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Binghamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm and NYC around 9 pm. There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. Possible gusts to 55 mph but 35-45 more probable for most.

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Bingamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm. There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast.

Re Quebec wildfires of spring 2023 lasting into June, the area where fires broke out contains a few roads that extend in various directions from Chibougamau (that's the weather station about halfway from James Bay to western Labrador). It's a town of about 8,000 people and along those roads are a few other places with 1-2 k populations. There is a bit of active forestry but as some pointed out, a lot of the timber that far north is unsuitable for any kind of commercial forestry. Except within 10 miles of the sparse road network, it is also inaccessible. Disclaimer: I am not a big conspiracy theorist in general, but the fact is, several known cases of arson leading to forest fires have been prosecuted successfully in various Canadian provinces. There is a lot of suspicion in Canada that the enormous Fort mac (Alberta) blaze in 2016 started from a campfire on a forest access road about 25 miles west of t e city, whether that was human carelessness or deliberate arson is not known. No suspects were ever identified. The Quebec fires all appeared to start in a short 24-hour time window in locations near those roads I mentioned. It was warm and dry for a week or two and not particularly windy but satellite imagery showed no convection, and weather maps showed no frontal activity. A theory of arson as cause is perhaps more plausible here than in the western Canada wildfire seasons of recent years where you had all the usual natural factors in place. Even so, one or two of those fires were deliberately started. Who does this? Two groups would top the list. One would be regional residents hoping to start fires to get crew work. Another would be either random mentally ill people or (if you perceive a difference) radical eco-freaks who think perhaps a catastrophic wildfire outbreak would "bring public awareness of climate change" (not to mention actually creating climate change). A third less likely group would be terrorist cells attacking our two national economies (wildfires don't do much good to the economy, BC for example spent almost a billion dollars fighting fires in 2021 alone). Another possible cause of wildfires is sparking from passing trains. This has been identified as a possible cause of the burndown of Lytton BC on June 30, 2021 during the heat dome episode. But there are no railways in the parts of Quebec where fires broke out. I found it particularly suspicious that about a dozen separate fires all started in the same 24-hour period in Quebec last spring near road systems. This is bound to become a trend because even if only about one in two thousand people are susceptible to the various causal factors to act as arsonists, that translates to 5,000 people in a state or province with ten million people. That's a lot of potential arsonists. Now success in this sort of enterprise would depend on some knowledge of weather factors and forest dynamics. A potential arsonist who went out in the wrong weather or forest fire risk situation would probably leave no evidence of their efforts. When people say we can expect more of this, do they mean more climate stress or more social factors as the actual cause? If it is a 50-50 blend of both we are really in trouble. (two additional causes of wildfires, slash burning efforts that get out of control, and power line arcing in high winds, more of a problem in California in part due to misguided laws allowing full tree growth under power lines, something not done in most other jurisdictions where we clear cut power line corridors for this reason).

I will bet it gets past 70F during breaks today and late cold front looks very powerful, reports of tornado(s) near Kalamazoo and in eastern IL earlier. Possible line squall situation for PA could extend into your forum coverage area too, timing around 6 pm to 9 pm, but TRW+ potential begins earlier (noon to 3 pm). Very strong winds and temperature drops into 20s (15F nw). Could be brief outbreaks of blowing snow in mountains. This is really moving along fast, cold front passed my location on monday morning around 12z. Temp fell from 50F to 25F and that was in an early phase of the storm's development. Would not be surprised to see a tornado watch in VA and NC.

Watch for line squall and wind damage potential by late Wed followed by a crazy drop in temps. Tornado reports from near Kalamazoo in s mi.

Cold front looking very powerful, strong tornado outbreak in southern michigan overnight ... fronts will arrive in NYC region around 8 pm with second fropa around 11 p to midnight, I am surprised there isn't a thread started for this event as well as sharp temperature falls overnight into Thursday, could see 60s to 20s and 15-20 F in far nw portions of forum? Not much if any temperature recovery during a sunny leap year day. Upstate NY, parts of PA, s ON wind damage followed by heavy snow squalls and a drop from near 70F into teens or even single digits. Reminds one of that temperature drop on Dec 23, 2022 (58 to 8 F). Not sure if cold front will beat midnight to remove some of the potential from Feb 29 being the largest drop possible in a calendar day (in this situation), will be so in eastern New England and possibly Long Island. It's going to be ugly when this surge of warm air gets over the 30-40 inch snowpack in eastern Nova Scotia.

Context for today's possible near-record warm temperatures: Record max for NYC (Feb 28) is 67F (1976). It was 56F in 1878 and 1880, 62F in 1903, before eventual record in 1976. The record high min of 47F was set in 1903, 1910 and 2017. If warm temperatures continue past midnight: Record max for NYC (Feb 29) is 69F (1880). Since then, 66F (1976) and 61F (2016).

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Mar 1st. (late Thursday evening in EST)

I will open March contest now, and will remember the above forecast is posted if I don't see an update.

1888, 1899, 1922, 1960, 2010

Final scoring for February 2024 __FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTALS rainsucks ________________________ 92 _ 98 _ 78 __ 268__ 61 _ 44 _ 56 __ 161 _ 429 _ 34 _ 60 _ 90 __184 ____ 613 wxallannj _________________________42 _ 56 _ 76 __ 174 __ 26 _ 56 _ 50 __ 132 _ 306 _ 52 _100 _ 96 __248 ____ 554 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 40 _ 60 __ 142 __ 18 _ 48 _ 60 __ 126 _ 268 _ 34 _ 92 _ 86 __ 212 ____ 480 BKViking _________________________36 _ 40 _ 52 __ 128 __ 08 _ 52 _ 38 __ 098 __226 _ 48 _ 98 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 454 DonSutherland1 _________________ 40 _ 48 _ 62 __ 150 __ 42 _ 42 _ 30 __ 114 _ 264 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 __ 178 ____ 442 Scotty Lightning _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 42 __ 110 __ 00 _ 60 _ 48 __ 108 _ 218 __ 22 _100_ 94 __ 216 ____ 434 ___ Consensus __________________34 _ 40 _ 54 __ 128 __ 20 _ 44 _ 24 __ 108 _ 236 _ 34 _ 76 _ 86 __ 196 ____ 432 RJay _____________________________ 52 _ 56 _ 72 __ 180 __ 28 _ 44 _ 18 __ 090 _ 270 _ 62 _ 70 _ 66 __ 198 _(468) RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ 47 _ 50 _ 65 __ 162 __ 25 _ 40 _ 16 __ 081 _ 243 _ 56 _ 63 _ 59 __ 178 ____ 421 RodneyS _________________________ 18 _ 54 _ 52 __ 124 __ 33 _ 44 _ 44 __ 121 _ 245 __ 18 _ 44 _ 90 __ 152 ____ 397 so_whats_happening ____________ 40 _ 46 _ 68 __ 154 __ 47 _ 34 _ 00 __ 081 _ 235 _ 40 _ 44 _ 66 __ 150 ____ 385 Tom ______________________________ 24 _ 32 _ 54 __ 110 __ 12 __ 32 _ 12 __ 056 _ 166 _ 16 _ 82 _ 84 __ 182 ____ 348 ___Normal _______________________ 12 _ 16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 00 _ 44 _ 18 __ 062 _ 122 _ 02 _ 70 _ 94 __166 ____ 288 wxdude64 ________________________ 08 _ 28 _ 40 __ 076 __ 12 _ 26 _ 12 __ 050 _ 126 _ 14 _ 48 _ 96 __ 158 ____ 284 Stormchaser Chuck ______________ 12 __16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 28 _ 00 _ 00 __ 028 _ 088 _ 42 _ 90 _ 56 __ 188 ____ 276 Rhino16 ___________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 05 _ 20 _ 16 __ 041 _ 057 _ 04 _ 66 _100__ 170 ____ 227 Roger Smith _______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 05 _ 00__ 005 _ 005 _ 20 _ 94 _ 66 __ 180 ____ 185 ___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____ 58 _ 78 _ 96 __ 232 __ 10 _ 34 _ 00 __ 044 _ 276 _ 00 _ 50 _ 74 __ 124 ____ 400 =================================== Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS _ three wins for Rainsucks with highest forecasts. ORD _ Also a win for Rainsucks with highest forecast. ATL _ A win for Scotty L with highest forecast. IAH _ A win for hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast. DEN _ A win for DonSutherland1 with highest forecast. PHX _ A loss for BKViking and a win wxallannj and Scotty L with next highest forecasts. SEA _ Did not qualify as an extreme forecast.