jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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You want that to clear out or fall apart,especially east of I-65
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Think this might be the villain tomorrow,but we'll see
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The Euro and GEFS are far apart in the upcoming days with the MJO.Believe ,possible what the GEFS sees is a Kelvin upcoming so it has destructive interference.Models keep showing this other than timing
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If the NAM is right but could very well be over doing things there would some strong storms in the mid morning in Mid Tn as the LLJ kicks in,then spreads eastward,seems tho there could be some early junk,looks messy
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Yes,starting today The Cumberland Trail opens from 7AM until sunset
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I was thinking about going also but man those parks are gonna be packed
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Short range models don't even agree with the synoptic for Sat,whats new Mid week, next week the Euro has a system that goes -ve tilt somewhere around the Cen/Plains.Something to watch anyways at this range. Longer range into May could be a Kelvin passing through,but thats to far out to believe and or timing
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Hanks pretty damn brave,Oklahoma yesterday,but some great footage
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Slightly different look on tonights runs so far
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This was the strongest +IOD on record compared to 1994 and 1997,both those years following in winter 1995 and 1998 made it to a moderate Nina to strong Nina.Even in 2006 which is now the actual 4th most IOD event this went into a strong Nina and is the only IOD event that went into a more resurgent Nina in 2008.So seemingly this could be a more moderate Nina is not out of the question
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It's going through Tn on this afternoons run.+ tilt,.looks kinda meh right now unless something changes.Also the Euro shows a potent shortwave around the Gulf Shores early Thursday.Some KI but the better Showalter and Theta is south
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Yeah buddy
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12Z Euro sped up,quite a bit.Sure it will change once again,pretty volatile pattern right now.
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Have to wait and see what the first system does.But both the Euro and GFS is hinting at the trough will go -ve tilt somewhere .Euro looks more into the lower Ms/Valley but the GFS is further east around the Friday time frame.GFS seems to want to make the 2nd system the dominant storm tonight with even very little inversion.One of them is going to fail seemingly,the first storm or the next system into possibly next weekend
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So basically you'd rather see the tripole warm and not cool,it has adverse effects https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1
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Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER
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You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO
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That was a large tornado in Ms
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Glad yall finally got your power back,plus yall are safe. Looks kinda of messy towards next weekend but the Euro today has a LP once again towards Delta Friday afternoon with the system going -ve tilt into the lower Ms/Valley which should slow the system down.Euro shows once again some possibly strong inversion with TT's 54-56 in the Mid Valley but not as strong with the cap in the east.It still is messy until we figure out what the storm will do before a couple days
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Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.
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Latest JAMSTEC,into summer
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Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update
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Subsurface is cooling.Today 4 /3.4 and 3 are around +0.4 and 1.2 is fixing to warm back up.
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https://atlas.niu.edu/
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Should be an active period coming up,seemingly
