jaxjagman

Its been sunny and hazy here,waiting on the sun to set.You guys east in the Mountains should be able to snap some good shots,please share if you get some good ones

Euro and Control today are hinting at a potential low which gets cut off somewhat or more slowly meanders around the Valley.But it's still to far off to trust, but there is a trough the next couple days which will slowly move through South Korea.Thus could be a potential odd summer time big rain maker upcoming with really nothing to kick it to fast.You can actually spot it pretty well using the CAG today ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JUN26 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK FRI 12Z 26-JUN 21.4 572 140 FRI 18Z 26-JUN 0.04 25.9 573 140 SAT 00Z 27-JUN 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.1 574 140 SAT 06Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.1 573 140 SAT 12Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.9 570 140 SAT 18Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 27.1 572 141 SUN 00Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.8 573 141 SUN 06Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 21.9 573 141 SUN 12Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 22.4 572 140 SUN 18Z 28-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 29.6 574 142 MON 00Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 27.7 576 142 MON 06Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 23.3 576 141 MON 12Z 29-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 23.4 574 141 MON 18Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.08 31.4 577 142 TUE 00Z 30-JUN 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.11 27.1 577 142 TUE 06Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 23.8 576 142 TUE 12Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 24.2 575 141 TUE 18Z 30-JUN 0.12 0.11 0.00 0.23 28.9 575 142 WED 00Z 01-JUL 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.34 25.7 575 142 WED 06Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.1 574 141 WED 12Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.7 573 141 WED 18Z 01-JUL 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.51 26.5 574 141 THU 00Z 02-JUL 0.14 0.12 0.00 0.65 24.4 574 141 THU 06Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.66 21.8 574 141 THU 12Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.68 22.5 573 140 THU 18Z 02-JUL 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.75 27.9 575 141 FRI 00Z 03-JUL 0.21 0.18 0.00 0.96 24.4 576 141 FRI 06Z 03-JUL 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.96 21.3 575 141 FRI 12Z 03-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 22.1 575 140 FRI 18Z 03-JUL 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.98 29.2 577 142 SAT 00Z 04-JUL 0.06 0.03 0.00 1.04 26.0 578 142 SAT 06Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.04 22.0 577 141 SAT 12Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 23.2 575 141 SAT 18Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 30.4 577 142 SUN 00Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.06 27.2 576 142 SUN 06Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.07 23.9 574 141 SUN 12Z 05-JUL 0.07 0.00 0.00 1.14 21.0 572 140 SUN 18Z 05-JUL 0.51 0.03 0.00 1.65 22.3 572 140 MON 00Z 06-JUL 0.82 0.08 0.00 2.47 21.9 574 140 MON 06Z 06-JUL 1.38 0.22 0.00 3.85 21.4 575 140 MON 12Z 06-JUL 3.05 0.23 0.00 6.90 21.3 575 140

Been some warming down into the subsurface the past couple weeks along the IDL,even East of it

I'd have p'd in my pants if i saw a bear that close

Nice early afternoon convective storm,with much needed rain.We got close to a inch to 1.5" so far today

Probably wait and see if the timing is right.In East Asia the last day or two there has been a more Baiu-front where heights build into China and an ULL North of Japan and some sort of boundary in between which goes stationary for a time,these fronts can be big rain makers in East Asia,into the early summer

Euro switched out on recent long range runs.This afternoon it shows a trough in the east with shortwaves spinning along.The low level shear 30-35kts would be a potential drought buster for us into next weekend,not sure i'd trust it right now tho

Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July

Probably should have been expected but parts of the Valley west of I-65 went into a more abnormal drought,looks like an unsettled period coming up.We had a decent cell come through yesterday but we need more South Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.

We haven't gotten much rain here the past few weeks.Our yard was looking great a few weeks ago but now is getting brown patches

Seemingly as well if everything teleconnects there should be should be a Upper Level Ridge in the East towards the end of the month, but its still in the long range and could change.but todays Euro shows this in East China into Korea

It doesn't have great support right now ,but the KW looks much stronger on today's CFS .It hasn't been showing much of anything past the Eastern Pac but now it does into the 3rd week of June

Pretty fascinating how weather in East Asia could potentially correlate and match up pretty well.Here you have a trough around Southern Japan that develops a system close to the East China Sea with ridging building into Korea.Then look several days later you see basically the same type scenario with a trough in the SE that develops a system going into the GOM with ridging into the Valley.It don't mean it will be right at this stage,i was just pointing out some basics with East Asia

Experimental JAMSTEC Oceans Deleted by accident i believe last months so i'll re-post it here.The SST'S in the ENSO regions are much cooler this update.Quite a few ensemble members this month shows a stronger Nina,but basically looks neutral to weak.But still quite a bit of spread between models

NMME'S Updated

95 is the record here today,HRRR shows us tying this this afternoon.Not sure it will happen or not.Heat Index is at 95 right now

That was a nice supercell that broke off that main band.To North it had to be a shelfie that lasted several minutes afterwards that got severe warned,further east we started to lose instability.The supercell that got warned did a couple recycles but lasted almost two hours with a wall cloud and funnel cloud which i saw reported and watching my radars.Plus, it was running into a OFB.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 TNC005-017-039-077-050015- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200605T0015Z/ Henderson TN-Benton TN-Carroll TN-Decatur TN- 659 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES... At 659 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wildersville, or near Natchez Trace State Park, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Fire Department confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Natchez Trace State Park, Natchez Trace State Forest, Wildersville, Parkers Crossroads, Clarksburg, Westport, Hillard, Holladay, Dollar, Palmer Shelter, Yuma and Parker`s Cross Roads.

TOG

Quiet May NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 2 hrs · Severe weather was well below normal in May 2020, especially tornadoes. Watches, moderate/high outlooks, severe reports, and tornadoes were all well below normal, some at or near record low. The attached slides are a summary of just how anomalous May 2020 severe weather was. Here is a summary: -May 2020 was the first year without a moderate risk or higher Day 1 outlook issued in the 1995-present period. -May 2020 had the fewest number of tornado watches in recorded history (1970-present). -May 2020 had the fewest severe weather reports since May 2014. -May 2020 had the fewest recorded tornadoes since at least 1970 (likely longer). -May 2020 had the fewest number of EF2+ tornadoes in recorded history (1950-present).

Guess some of the last pics got lost in cyber space,could have also deleted them by mistake The file you were looking for could not be found. Starting to cool around the IDL

The Upper Level ridge made it to the Kuril Islands today,The track into next weekend should be dependant on how strong a Mid level ridge is and how fast it possibly could get broke down or not,least that's my thinking right now

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently located over northern Guatemala. This system is forecast to move northwestward to northward within a broader area of disturbed weather, and it could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression could form while the system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The next update on this system will be in the first regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which will be issued by 2 AM EDT Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Beven