jaxjagman

Latest IMME shows a more basin wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something

Severe fall the models seems to be getting away from any Modoki,more crap look

SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM

Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak

7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol. The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley. Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what. Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into the GOM as well right now

See if it last.still some rotation headed towards Decatur

Going S of Spring City

Yeah i'm disappointed,all i wanted was a light show instead have temps of 85 at 10pm and dp's in the mid 70's..lol

Looks like the rotation died again but some 2" hail marker

headed towards Spring City

Some rotation again my last scan headed towards Spring City

Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell

Tornado watch for the Eastern Valley

Models still don't get along but the NAM seemed to join hands somewhat with the Euro bringing a MCS east of Nashville in the evening.Both the CAMS look the way.The WRF still shows multi cluster supercells until early morning sometimes. I just want to see a light show

Besides the brief respite from the muggy air, the other story of this forecast package revolves around the intense upper level low that will develop in the Great Plains tonight and push into the Great Lakes region Friday. As it does, areas from the mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will be squarely in a northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to show a pre-frontal MCS (though being depicted to arrive earlier in the day Friday now in both the Euro and GFS) and a surface low developing to our west Friday evening. While the MCS could be troublesome enough, both the GFS and NAM are off the charts regarding the deep layer shear being generated by this surface low. What was 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear is now 60 kts and in the 00Z to 03Z Saturday time frame (Friday evening), low level SRH values bounce up to about 300 m2/s2. Instability values are also sky-high due to the southerly influx of surface moisture. The first thing that comes to mind in the northwesterly flow aloft is a Friday evening derecho. Obviously, a scenario like this carries with it damaging straight line winds, heavy rains (PW values are running about 2 inches) and yes, the potential for July tornadoes. I am going to add this Friday severe weather threat into the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some decent shear for this time of year,much better than it was showing yesterday https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models still show a chance of some strong storms towards the end of the work week into the Valley.Took some soundings into the Mid Valley for Friday.The Euro is for BNA and the GFS is slightly S of BNA.All the models today show the Upper level trough more Southward than usual in the summer time.Instabilities right now look pretty decent for some strong storms upcoming.Who ever gets storms it should be like the SPC mentioned as there is a capping inversion into the evening hours,so storms will die off into the early evening,right now anyways Nashville disco Extended outlook...Rain chances will creep back into the forecast on Thursday as another upper level trough moves southeastward through the Midwest. Chances will increase further on Friday as the trough approaches TN and moist southerly flow returns at lower levels. The pattern for late next week and next weekend is pretty interesting as extended models morph the trough into a significant closed low over Michigan. This set up leaves Middle TN in a period of significant northwest flow aloft...and probably another cold front that could arrive Saturday. There is much uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, but don`t be surprised if we see some strong storms in this pattern...given the moisture, a cold front and unusually strong flow aloft proving unseasonably strong wind shear.

Chance for some strong storms towards the end of the work week by both the GFS and Euro.SPC don't sound to enamored by this ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the models diverge in the solutions but on a broad-scale maintain a western U.S. upper-level ridge and eastern U.S. upper-level trough. The position of the trough is doubtful at this range but model consensus would put the greatest potential for thunderstorm development in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon into the early evening. On Saturday and Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward but vary considerably on the amplitude of the system and amount of instability that will be in place. Thunderstorms with some potentially strong, would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in areas that destabilize the most. Uncertainty is considerable at this range.

I'm ready for football.Your baseball team is having a bad year and the Braves who were playing good are going through a mid season melt down

Looks like a wash rinse and repeat pattern but some decent signs of even a warmer period into the 1st week of August,it is summer tho and August is hot.But the SOI the last couple days has really warmed up into a more Nina pattern of +13.85 today,this is a rise of around 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies shows even hotter temps with the 850mb of 25c expanding more into the Valley before once again getting batted back down by an Upper level trough.Wouldn't surprise me if it's not right and later on the next few days you see the MJO going back into the COD.Just my speculation and is no forecast.

It's looking like the the upper ridge breaks down a day sooner than what was being shown in earlier runs ,into Sat.The Euro and GFS both have a shortwave trough this afternoon for Monday but the Euro looks slightly slower than the GFS.Should see some potential strong storms Monday afternoon and if the Euro were to be right into the evening and early morning hours,for some parts.Mesoscales seem sketchy at this point

NMME update during "DJF"

Not horrid looking anyways,right now

Kinda like what the NMME show the last update.It did a back flip though for August,last update before looked hot,not near as bad this time.