bigtenfan

It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC

Looking somewhat further ahead: Some of this morning long range guidance has storm this doing a full loop once off shore and circling around to be a threat to the SE coast of Florida. Are the steering currents that crazy for that to be a reasonable possibility?

If the wave is already out there and if it was considered even a lower level threat to the islands/FL/SEUS I would think that the NHC would have at least a 20% Lemon for development over the next 7 days. If the sheer isn't there Is it the dry air that is preventing serious development?

The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.

Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.

I flew to Phila out of Fort Lauderdale today. On ascent the Sahara dust was very apparent.

Absolutely The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right. I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

Did the fact that was worst at the airport itself have anything to do with heat generated from all of the jet engines?

I am not sure that I am putting this in the correct forum. Do any Mets on the board have a scientific explanation as to the cause of the biggest single day rainfall in Florida history? I almost had a very personal stake in this as my wife's flight out of FLL got off the ground an hour before they stopped all flights in and out. She said that the ascent was very turbulent. I have seen very little discussion of what was truly a history making event. Thanks in advance

Back to weather banter. It would be funny if DKs 2 inch prediction for DC turns out to be right. It would be even funnier if he overestimated.

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds

Thanks so much for the quick answer

At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?

Drove from Exton to Malvern to Paoli. Light snow the entire way. Pretty to look at in the headlights.

Question for the experts on the board. In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower. Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian? Thanks in advance

So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area? That would still make it a N outlier.

Classic example of the old saying that even in a lesser year all you need is one storm to make it memorable.

That map is for tropical storm winds and depending on the exact detail shows the landfall area at a 50 to 80 percent chance of TS winds I am sure that the 50 and 64 kt wind maps showed even a lesser chance I am sure that map was based on the GFS which failed miserably in this storm at the cost of many many lives

The thing is that Florida actually has some of the best and strongest building codes in the country at least since 2005 and to a lesser extent since 1992. My own house here in Boca is built to withstand 155MPH winds and a recent garage door replacement is rated at 235mph winds. You will never see wood frame new construction in Florida. Everything is reinforced concrete and cinder block. Personally I think that an issue that needs to be addressed is how the GFS and equally important the hurricane models that are based off of it was totally taken to school by not only the Euro but the UK model as well. This is not the first time that this has happened yet the NHC continues to weigh their forecast to what the GFS says.

Looking at the Euro which in itself is still very much an eastern outlier it would be more of a direct hit to the SW cost of Florida into central Florida . SE FL would still get some hefty TS force winds out of this but not a crippling blow.

That is still a fairly large westward move from 00Z which had it going right over both of our houses here in Boca.

I wonder how the 12Z Euro will look as they were by far the NE outlier at 00Z

Beat me to it by a minute

I am surprised that no one has mentioned what the fantasy range of the 6z GFS is showing. If that were to verify that would be at least a $250b storm. A major probable cat 4 straddling the coast from Miami to the Outer Banks