michsnowfreak

For example tho, I think the 2024-25 winter could've had a lot more potential than it showed. So a similar outcome this coming winter may yield better results, especially for the Midwest and northern New England, but possibly further south as well. I think avoiding a major drought in the central and west states this summer will help too. 2 of the past 3 winters are good examples of how the pattern is more noticeable than the final snow number here. As I said, the 2024-25 winter dropped total snowfall inches of just upper 20s in Detroit to the highest being upper 30s in the microclimate NW burbs. But yet the public viewed it as an "old fashioned winter" due to the frozen white landscape much of the time (area-wide, but esp north). Just two years prior in 2022-23, snowfall totals ranged from just under 40" at Detroit to the upper 50s in those NW burbs, yet the vibe was "what winter?/mild winter" due to the mild temps and frequent bare ground spells. Now i dont entirely discount the final snow number- far from it. I was frustrated this past winter at what i thought was a winter that underperformed the hand it was dealt, much like I thought 2022-23 was snowier than it should be. So if the pattern this Fall looks similar to last fall, I urge everyone to not expect anything close to a verbatim repeat of their sensible weather.

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

Its always ok to agree with some stuff and disagree with others. Thats pretty much where im at. I do hope nyc sees some good winters soon, but obviously im more concerned with what goes on in SE Michigan and im still liking 2025-26 a lot at this early stage. I like that this thread sometimes strays OT (but not necessarily TOO OT lol) because I really look at it as an all encompassing "thoughts for next winter" thread rather than JUST Enso. But I do feel like different regions definitely have different goals in mind. NYC folks seem to really be into the final snowfall number. And while that certainly interests me, Im more about how the winter is going to act as a whole. Its like one big puzzle. The timing and length of different patterns will really dictate what kind of winter it is, and especially how the general public perceives it, moreso than what that final number is following the last snowfall, likely in April 2026.

Just a warning, some of us in the lakes forum have speculated that he is a former troll account. And same here; bluewaves theories, regardless of whether it is just to get the pattern correct, or its a convenient scapegoat to make nyc winters warmer/less snowy, or a mixture of both...would imply good winters here in MI so I would have NO issue with his outcome. I just dont like anyone talking in absolutes as if they have a crystal ball. While its very rare for NYC to have a better winter than here (tho it has happened- see 1957-58, 1960-61, 1995-96), it's a little more common for NYC to have a more favorable pattern for their local climate than we have for ours (even if the end result is still a "wintrier" winter here). So these assumptions that NYC is just never going to have a good winter barring a volcano eruption are imo ridiculous regardless of ANY background factors, let alone all of them. When it happens Ill be waiting patiently to hear the reasoning why it did. Especially from a snow perspective since this past winter was much, MUCH colder than anticipated, so the lack of east coast snowfall took the spotlight away from temps. If we ever DO have one of those years where its a good NYC winter and not a good one here, Ill be in a shitty mood, so I will REALLY wait for that explanation

How were they? Hot, hot, hot lol. The 1930s-1950s were by far the era of most 90F+ days here. We had a spike again in the 2010s (but even then, far less 100s than the 1930s-50s) but have already digressed in the 2020s. Detroit has hit 100F+ a total of 38 times in 155 years of record, and 21 of those 38 times fell between 1930-1955.

Another cool start, 48F at DTW and cooler elsewhere, but this time its warming up rapidly.

We were 27° in May 2020 with a record 5 days in a row of snowflakes. That same 1953 heatwave (Aug-Sept) is Detroits longest on record as well. The most deadly was July 1936. Summer 1934 and 1955 were unbearable. I could go on lol.

100% disagree. You're constant relying on a reported yearly global temp to dictate a local areas climate makes zero sense. You state way too many opinions as matter of fact. But the bottom line to assert that everyone is in a different climate than 2010 is downright nuts. In fact, since 2010 i have seen more severe cold snaps than I did in the several decades before then. This morning we saw a low of 42 at Detroit with 30s in outlying areas for the coldest June temp since 2003. I can sense your disappointment that NYC did not get a warmer than avg winter in 2024-25 as you counted on to keep up your warm streak, so we have turned the tables now from the expectations for a torch winter in '24-25 to the reality that it was far from torch. So NOW we hear that 2024-25 would've been 2013-14 if it happened 20 years earlier . Oh and by the way. Ive been on weather forums since 2002. So I am able to clearly remember the "winters are no more" clown talk of the late 1990s. Then we lived through a historic stretch of winters which ended a short decade ago but that some now try to sweep under the rug and discuss the point of no return. It's amazing that we can analyze winters from 130 years ago but minimize the historically severe nature of winters from 10-15 years ago.

Official lows to welcome June in southeast Michigan: Detroit- 42 Flint- 37 Ann Arbor- 35 Monroe- 41 White Lake- 37 The 42F at DTW is the coldest June temp since 2003. Some of the coldest spots in the rural western U.P. were in the 20s

Beautiful day today here. Fresh northerly breeze, minimal wildfire smoke, and now going into the low 40s to welcome met summer.

We are not in a completely different climate than we were in 2010.

Cool and breezy. Another Fall like day to end May.

Yes, and im fine with it. Getting through May with no heatwaves is always a bonus, makes the uncomfortable season shorter.

Another cool gray day here. Usually the 2nd half of May is when I start running the AC, at least periodically, but this year its either been the heat running or windows open. Zero complaints from me.

2009-10 was decent here. Excellent February. Season snowfall was 46.1" imby and 43.7" at DTW, but 27" of that fell in Feb. Shut off, as you said, in March. In fact, Feb 27, 2010 ties w/ 1946 for earliest last measurable snow on record, though the snowpack lasted into the first third or so of March. Definitely about as cold a winter as you'll see in a strong nino. But I know it was a shitty winter in Toronto and I think Maine. The main thing about 2009-10 getting forgotten here is that it was basically an average snow season in a streak of great winters. The seasonal snowfall at DTW for 2007-08 thru 2010-11 was 71.7", 65.7", 43.7", 69.1". Now 1957-58? Just gross. It's the 9th least snowy winter on record (18.0"). Basically a mild wet December and a cold dry Jan/Feb. Mid Feb was bitterly cold and white, but the peak snow depth all winter (mid Feb) was 3". Also, 1957-58 holds the distinction of being the only winter in the entire climate record to not have a 24-hr snowfall of 2"+. There were several in the 1.7-1.9" range.

Bundling up for tonights Tigers game. October baseball weather on Memorial weekend.

It did. First time in several decades actually.

Detroit vs International Falls May avg temp update. DTW: 58.3F INL: 56.2F

Fair enough. But people do it anyway lol. They get mad when a snowstorm misses or underproduces and start talking about spring or severe. The best thing about weather is that anyone can wish for whatever they want, but no one has any control over it!

Just hearing a POSSIBILITY of 2013-14 is orgasmic. A weak knock off would still be a fantastic winter.

Agree. But this kind of weather helps, delaying the heat as long as possible. I dont mind summer when its shorter lol.

I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more. We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter. Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow.

Fortunately I dont care what most like or want lol. I could do without the rain, but Im always a fan of cool temps.

Since when does preferred weather make you sick in the head? I think its sick in the head to spend winter in a tropical climate, but I dont take to insults

Gray skies, sweater weather and fall feels in late may. No complaints here!