michsnowfreak

The look up colder than average in the south and warmer than average in the north has been showing up fairly steadily, so I certainly believe its a likely scenario. But keep in mind average temperatures are way colder in the north, so actual temps will still be colder in the north, just not as much of a gradient.

A dehumidifier will be a HUGE help with your mold issues. I run a dehumidifier in my basement year round. Although it only runs when it needs to, so it rarely runs in the winter. Winter air is often dry in Michigan, so running a humidifier in your bedroom when you sleep is recommended as well. Have to find the perfect balance lol.

Yes rain definitely plays a huge part in mold. Spring is always worst for me. I hope you start feeling better soon. Snow melt (if it has been deep and long lasting) can cause snow mold on grass. But yes snow itself covers up everything including mold issues. So bring on the frozen landscape!

Make no mistake, it's a gross December here. We had snow on the ground Halloween night and the last 4 days of November but have not had any white ground in December, just occasional flakes. Nothing is budding or growing and we have not had near the rain that you've had so I will definitely give you that it is different and I'm not experiencing what you are first-hand. But if that is true about the mold, and I do see the excessive rain totals this month on the East Coast, I understand completely as I have bad allergies to mold. They're especially noticeable in the Spring or Fall. Mold of any kind is nothing to mess around with and can literally be deadly (esp when people have black mold in their home amd dont know it). I grew up with such a bad allergy to mold that my mom knew if I said i had a "mold headache" it was different than a regular headache. Sorry you're going through it.

Simplifying everything down, it seems both Judah Cohen and Larry Cosgrove are on the train of cooler start to January, milder towards mid month, then the coldest part of winter the 2nd half of January into February.

Hopefully he's right lol. I wonder if this could be similar weather wise to 2006-07?

After reading his entire summary, the funny thing is the jist I got was very similar to what the much more maligned Larry Cosgrove has been saying for a while. Much cooler start to Jan (but not cold), then getting milder towards mid month (not Dec mild), then winter may really roar in later in Jan into Feb.

I dont disagree. I am wondering how many snow weenies, if they HAD to choose a snowless pattern, would take mild & dry vs cold & dry. Id absolutely take cold & dry, while I think many others would not. Cold & dry is still winter, especially here in the Great Lakes where there are lakes/water everywhere to freeze up and you can always get some LES. But I think MANY (especially in the general public moreso than a true weather enthusiast) see snow as the be all end all, and at the end of a winter, the lack of OR surplus of a snow will be a huge weight on how they view the winter, regardless of temps. I literally have binders of every stat imagineable for Detroit, and can tell you that HERE, for whatever reason, December is becoming the less wintry month, esp with temps. We are not seeing any noticeable change in first/last freeze, first/last snow (in fact, Oct/May snow frequency is increasing), November is getting frequent cold snaps, Feb is getting tons of snow, Jan & Feb temps are nearly flat for the past 100 years...so I cannot figure out what causes the change in December. We have lucked into enough White Christmases, but avg temps are clearly on the up like a sore thumb compared to Nov, Jan, or Feb. So you add that unknown reason to the infamously hostile December strong nino climo and bam, welcome to Dec 2023. It would be cool to get a big climo guru from every region together and look at whats changing for the good and bad in each location.

Interesting thoughts. You think a weaker SSW would favor colder but LESS suppression than a strong one?

More open water could mean more lake effect and lake enhanced snow.

I can confirm. The two months have finished very close a few times, but at Detroit officially, December has never finished warmer than November (it should not this year either).

Again...THANK YOU! I do not understand why the immediate knee jerk reaction for some is that if you dont believe that 50s in winter are the new normal in Minneapolis or it will never snow in NYC again, you dont believe in CC. Look at my above exchange with Libertybell...Liberty quotes a post on CC is real with a response, it sure is, my budding trees proves it...I discuss the well-documented flowering of trees in Jan 1932...and im told one random year in the 1930s doesnt prove anything. . Um Im not TRYING to prove anything, but yet your one random year of budding tree proves CC. No, your budding trees proves an excessively warm December pattern in a strong El Nino. And I am well aware winter warming on the east coast is greater than MI, and Im sure the ocean plays a big role. I love our more stable climate in MI, but what I do find hard to believe is that everything on the EC is happening worse and worse every year. The 2010s were NYC snowiest decade on record and the 1950s were the LEAST. NYC never really seemed like a wintry place to begin with. They are a place that can get annihalted with a good snowstorm when the ingredients are right & I have no doubt that it wont be long before they do get a monster snowstorm as they are due (and of course when this happens, the usual crowd will freak and bombard with posts "just because we got this storm CC is still very real" and on and on). But I have to learn to just let the usual crowd be. As you have said, pretty much every one on here knows CC is real, there is just a group who can differentiate weather from climate and another group who will post every anecdote or non-fact checked story they can find. It would be fun to go back and read posts from Dec 2006-Jan 2007. I wonder if budding winter trees and snowless days were the new climate (before we were bombarded with a bunch of harsh winters the following decade).

Amen! Agree 100%. I mean literally LAST Christmas was below zero in Minneapolis and the extend of white Christmas in the US was greater than normal. 2022 was Detroits 5th coldest Christmas with a high of 16 (& 4" snow on the ground) and 2023 was 5th warmest with a high of 54. Yet an unusually warm snowless period centering on such a big day as Christmas is absolute gold for those into the dramatic anecdotes. 1877-78 was a strong nino I heard. The region had hideously warm Decembers in 1877, 1881, & 1889.

For 25 years Ive watched almost every weather event blamed on climate change. Anytime there is anomalous warmth, no snow on Christmas, a low snow month, or especially a top 20 warm month, I can 100% guarantee that any story referencing it will discuss climate change. However in those 25 years we have also had brutal winters, record snow years, record cold snaps and impressive winter storms. Since these are newsworthy items, they definitely got coverage at the time, but they almost always come with a preface "just because record lows were smashed does not mean climate change is not happening" or something like that. The entire thing has become embarrassing and it's exactly why so many dont take it seriously. Such irony that those most passionate about climate change are only hurting themselves when they fall hook, line, and sinker for any and every clickbait story.

The cutoff low in some form or another has been predicted for a while. I do think the best times will be later in january into February. But I saw someone else say this and it's so true: a lot of people don't think the pattern has changed unless they're shoveling.

Wednesday’s [January 13] temperature of 59 degrees [in Hartford] started the crocus shoots, produced dandelions and pansies and encouraged porpoises and sea gulls to invade the Connecticut River in this vicinity. Also, a honey bee was seen… Manchester, NH, reported that maple trees confused by the springlike weather today [January 14] began to give sap to all who would tap them. Source: The Hartford Courant, January 15, 1932 Several violas in full bloom were picked by Mrs. Sherman D. Wrisley in her garden on Pratt Street, Glastonbury. Strawberry plants blossomed on Tolland Street, East Hartford. Source: The Hartford Courant, January 16, 1932 Spring’s miscue in the East may have had results on fruit trees, flowering shrubs, bulbs and all kinds of flowers, according to reports that drifted in yesterday [January 15]. In Morris Littlemann’s penthouse garden at Broadway and Thirty-ninth Street, tulips, daffodils and hyacinths popped through the earth, roses broke out in a rash of buds and lilac and rhododendron bushes showed Springlike activity… Magnolias opened in Heckscher Community Park in Huntington, LI, and grass and weeds had to be cut. Robins flashed over pansy beds in Toronto, and at Brantford in Ontario “an audacious grasshopper leaped with joy,” according to a Canadian Press report. Trusting plants and insects all over the East were betrayed by Spring’s dizzy mid-winter fling… Ice saws were lying idle in Sussex County, NJ, because there is no ice to cut. Farmers in the district were plucking violets and casting rueful glances on misguided shrubs and fruit trees that had answered the siren call of a Spring gone mad. Source: The New York Times, January 16, 1932.

Translation from Mr Richman "Be careful of clickbait on social media that outlines reasons why a step down process and turn towards colder, more wintry weather is likely coming up in January and beyond. Instead, listen to my advice, which includes no reasoning and just a blanket statement that a strong el nino means cold stays to the northwest (which is not even correct)".

Did I ever say climate change was not taking place? It always kills me that whenever a joke of a story is mocked it means the person mocking it doesn't believe in climate change. Hell a troll can say something like "the climate will warm 30° in 2 decades" and people calling bs will be told they dont believe in climate change. The whole point is the inability to separate weather events from climate in the mainstream is ridiculous.

Did I say it was incorrect? This article was just a climate change piece based on a warm December weather pattern. Other than listing the Christmas temperatures there really wasn't data in it. I just thought it amusing that after the 3rd snowiest winter on record...and 7 years since Minneapolis has even had a below avg snow season...that alarm bells are ringing because of a snowless Christmas and warm December in minneapolis lol. It would be especially funny if they end up with another above avg snow season in the end. That San Diego lady though. Lmao. Who spends $900 on a winter coat? It's too bad that she hasn't worn it. The 8° that minneapolis had in November must have reminded her of San Diego winters of yore. But props to her for running 5 miles in a tshirt on Christmas day when it rained all day in minneapolis. Hope her shirt wasn't white!

Such a reputable news source! Im glad the mayor of minneapolis is sounding the alarm bells after a snowless Christmas. The world must be ending. I hope he was not too alarmed last winter when minneapolis saw its third snowiest winter on record. And since we have 4 more months of snow to go in the midwest, hopefully that lady's sensible purchase of a $900 winter coat is put to use.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I definitely enjoyed the storms. The March 3rd snowstorm in particular was like something you read out of one of those old 1800s books the way they would describe a storm blowing in out of nowhere. Usually they're described in a sort of unrealistic way but that's exactly what happened on Mar 3. Plus we also the worst ice storm in years. And the wet nature of most snowfalls was a photography dream. So definitely some positives last winter, it's just that I've always been a snowcover guy so hoping we get a few stretches this winter. Regardless what happens, your analysis is appreciated and I look forward to more of it!

FANTASTIC analysis @OHweather! I'm not worried about finishing with a below average snow season, I would just love some bouts of wintry weather with some sustainability. Ironically last year, though many areas outside MSP considered it a year without a winter, we actually finished with near normal snowfall in the Detroit area (slightly below average in the southern burbs and slightly above average in the northern burbs). This was due to multiple juicy winter storms that were fun to experience but did not last on the ground long. If we flip the script and get some smaller snowfall that actually stay awhile, given it's a strong nino I won't complain.

At Detroit, this Christmas the high was 54°, which ties with 2 other years for 5th warmest Christmas. Last Christmas the high of 16° made it the 5th coldest Christmas.

I assumed it was because this tweet is not to the liking of the usual Eric Webb fan club posts in this thread.

Merry Christmas Eve everyone!