michsnowfreak

Yesterday was one of the weirdest I can recall. My ring camera records a daily timelapse and it was crazy. bare to instant white which then melted off. I am putting the cart before the horse because every day counts and you know damn well it can snow through April. But this winter will rank much worse in snowcover than snowfall lists here. To-date, Detroit has only seen 28 days with a Trace or more on the ground. Keep in mind, a T snow depth is either a dusting (0.4 or less) or patches/skiffs of old snow. So a T of snow depth is not a blanket of snow, and while the observer in me is certainly anal about putting 0 when 0 and T when T, the better metric for snowcover IMO is days with 1"+. Plus its a much easier metric to track over the period of record. And to date, Detroit has only seen 18 days with 1"+ on the ground. The peak snow depth was 7", which is not bad. But the amount of days in total is horrible. The yearly average is 49 days, the all-time low being 10 days (1936-37) & high 96 days (2013-14). *note- I only have snowcover since 1906, although Id estimate the true all-time low is either 1881-82 or 1889-90. Ive estimated about 8 days probably for 1881-82 and only maybe 5 days in 1889-90.

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14. As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather. I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety. DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0” BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2” Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30: 1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”) 1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”) 1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”) 1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”) 1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”) 1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”) 1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”) 1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”) 1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”) 2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”) Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30: 1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”) 1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”) 1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”) 1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”) 1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”) 1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”) 1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”) 2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”) 2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”) 2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”) 2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”) 2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”) 2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”) Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston 1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”) 1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”) 1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”) 1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”) 1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)

What a wild day. The wind is howling now and all the snow is gone except where people shoveled.

Different story here. Liberty is correct in that most Nina's following ninos are decent snow wise. There are some exceptions, but the majority are decent. In fact, of the ones you listed, the only clunker snow seasons here were 1954-55 and 1995-96.

I guess it's jumping way ahead, but snowy Winters in the great lakes and upper midwest are common in la nina's. And with an active storm track we certainly don't need a cold winter, just not the crap we had most of this winter.

Well, you've had your easing in, next winter, you can leave that crap down south

Oh wow I didn't realize you were still that low. Have you kept track of how many days you've had snow on the ground?

See down here you would have loved it lol. Blinding snow, 2 inches fell in one hour and then throughout the day it melted. I expected nothing to be honest, so it was awesome to see. But it doesn't matter how good or bad the winter is, how much or little snow we have, I HATE watching snow melt. I know Beavis hears me on that.

The winter post mortem will be interesting to analyze the entire snow season. goes without saying that mean result SUCKS, but there have been some interesting quirks.

35 dbz on radar. This was a steve snow. Blinding heavy snow followed promptly by melting. It's nearly all gone now.

It was like an April snow burst. The air was choked with massive flakes, instant Winter wonderland, and now, by late afternoon, only a few skiffs remain.

It was like a cloudburst of snow. It was wild. I was not expecting anything really, thought we would get rain. Got 2.0" here in basically an hour. DTW had 1.9". Looks like a general 1.5-2" in SE MI and more further north, though rates were probably hardest right in the heart of the metro. Huge flakes too. Its melty now, but was certainly fun while it lasted.

Synoptic seems a crapshoot. Some years we certainly get more, but other years we dont. One thing that often helps us is not just pure "lake effect" but lake enhanced snow. Sometimes a shortwave or clipper will move thru and it gets a boost from Lake MI, increasing snow on this side of the lake. So in that case, you really cant call it lake effect OR synoptic, its more lake enhanced synoptic snow lol.

Exactly and ive said this a hundred times.

Dont flatter yourself. Beavis obviously misunderstood what I meant. Beavis is like me on steroids when it comes to winter, the polar opposite of ALL things YOU stand for in winter. You ve been called out by multiple other posters over the years for your posting AND your exaggerating. The reason people dont think you enjoy small events (which to you is anything under 12") because youve said as much. See, I dont play that game. I like what I like, and I dont waiver from it. I liked the same type of weather through our record snow stretch of 2007-15 that I like in these last 2 lean winters. If you think its turd polishing by posting about the weather ON A WEATHER board, or correcting your misinformation, fine. Ive hated this winter as a whole, not sure how Ive polished it lol.

I'm content with my SE MI climate and take an annual trip up north in late Feb. This is the first time I've ever had a trip planned where I will have little or no snow (Feb 23-26). Bad winters happen. They suck. But they happen.

What's interesting is 1930-31 and 1925-26 are on the top of Duluths snowless list. Yet 1925-26 was Detroits 3rd snowiest winter with 78.0". Must have been an interesting storm track. 1930-31 was a drought winter and bad in most places, but a March snowstorm did save face some in the southern Lakes.

Weak ninos have had some good winters, but strong ninos bat .000 in terms of a winter that averages out on the good side here. I plan to do more research locally about la nina this summer. But the high number of snowy Decembers is very interesting.

It does often feel like if you don't attribute everything in the weather to CC you are labeled a denier. So messed up. Although when I see a troll post (ex: asserting new england will never see sustained winter again) i assume credibility for a genuine scientific discussion is low.

See your area is where it gets more "gray" for me. Because I see the want for noreasters, but you also can get a lot more sustained winter than the midatlantic. At least bouts of it. So I just dont see the romance of strong ninos. While no doubt this winter is worse than most would have imagined, the fact that the northern US would have a subpar winter (by each areas standards) is the closest thing to a guarantee you can ever make in the weather. Strong Ninos are usually warm and dry here, but we had an extremely wet/snowy January which was the only saving grace this winter. Feb has been bone dry. On the flip side, La Ninas usually bring PLENTY of fun to the northern US, but also a big rollercoaster (even more than typical).

Woah, woah, and WOAH. You COMPLETELY misinterpreted what I said. The annual bickering between me & Steve has its roots because he makes it clear he wants big dogs only, doesnt care for cold, snowcover, smaller snows, etc...whereas I like ALL THINGS WINTER and do not place emphasis on something that is rare, a monster storm. So i say if he wants to call it turd polishing because I like frequent snowfall over the biggest storm possible, so be it. I like what you like, dont paint me as the enemy! But WHERE, please tell me, have I said I liked this winter? Is it turd polishing because, seeing the alarm bells of a strong Nino winter and knowing our fun may be limited I was outside daily ENJOYING the cold/snow when it was here rather than tracking how many days, hours, and minutes away a thaw was? Is it turd polishing because I havent decided to commit a murder because Im unhappy with winter? . Do we have to video ourselves throwing things against the wall or do you take our word for it? Bing Crosby recorded White Christmas on a scorching hot summer day in 1942 btw. And sorry, but a huge majority of this CAN be blamed on ENSO state. Not all, but a lot of it. Strong Ninos are the WORST winters for us, bar none. Theres not one single one thats been even an average winter here, let alone one that would even sniff your standards, in the history of strong Ninos dating to the 1800s. And lastly, if you ask me, you are the one turd polishing this winter by lumping it in with the last 8 winters. Thats giving this winter wayyyy too much credit. This winter for me is in a league with winters like 2011-12, in its own way of course. Last winter sucked too, but was better overall. But prior to the last 2 winters, we did fine. In fact, much of this sub had unusually deep snow in Feb 2021. God forbid we have some average snow seasons after a period of record snowfall. That was not suffering. THIS is suffering.

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F. And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement.

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms? There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina. Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George!

I fully expect a hot summer this year in a nino to nina transition. As Ive said before, by far the season that has warmed most here has been summer (esp mins), so I doubt the absence of 90F-heat will grace us 2 years in a row. 90F+ days (avg is 13) in summers preceding Modoki Ninas 1973– 9 days 1975– 4 days 1983– 21 days 1988– 39 days (most on record) 1998– 10 days 2000– 1 day 2008– 7 days 2010– 17 days 2016– 23 days *** Nino to Nina transition years 1954- 17 days 1964- 26 days 1973- 9 days 1988- 39 days 1998- 10 days 2010- 17 days 2016- 23 days

This is WAYYYY longrange, but talking modoki La Nina next year. I looked up what years were considered a modoki La Nina, and they are: 1973–1974 1975–1976 1983–1984 1988–1989 1998–1999 2000–2001 2008–2009 2010–2011 2016–2017 That composite = December will be rockin' here