michsnowfreak

That would be an unprecedentedly snowless December here for a La Nina. I don't buy it. As we say, seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, but a seasonal snowfall estimate? We have enough trouble with snow maps during nowcast time, much less an interpretation of snow maps for a season.

If you include 2000, then it's even better. Every single one of those 5 years charts in the top 15 snowiest decembers on record at Detroit, out of 145 years of record. 2000- 3rd snowiest Dec 2005- 11th snowiest Dec 2008- 7th snowiest Dec 2016- 14th snowiest Dec 2017- 5th snowiest Dec

That's a good point. I did look up 2008-09 and it did seem to average colder than normal on the east coast but not nearly as cold as here. And seems the Feb 2018 torch is what made the difference on the east coast for that winter.

I have the last 5 weak ninas as 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23. Of those 5, both 2008-09 & 2017-18 were colder than normal here. But what really stands out with that group is a good December.

Always nice when you start to see the early colors pop in preparation for octobers big color show

I dont either. And one thing we are all guilty of, to some extent, is really focusing on anomaly maps, whether its 2m temps, 850 temps, heights, etc. Its easy to get caught up in the red/orange or blue/purple colors on those maps. Everythings relative. Last year was the 4th warmest winter on record at Detroit, and warmest of my lifetime...but the mean temp would have made it 1.3F COLDER than normal in NYC. Canada is cold. When Canada is a "furnace", its still, in all actuality, cold. So if we actually do get below normal cold into Canada during winter, ala traditional La Nina, that is a TON of cold air to work with. Even though the northern tier is favored, those from NYC-south who are ready to write off winter should realize how easily they will have their chances if a piece of the polar vortex breaks off, or even get a good arctic front, etc.

This is very common in nina winters. The anomalous cold in the cold north and anomalous warmth in the warm south creates some great temp contrasts that add fuel to storms.

The October snow thing is a bit of a myth. Or should I say there's no definite correlation historically. Nearly half of Octobers see a trace of snow here, but I think the whole myth thing started with early season measurable snowfalls. A handful of snowy Novembers followed by crap Decembers the past decade haven't helped either. Plus the two snowy Decembers we did see the past decade saw nothing meaningful in Oct/Nov. So its really more a short term trend.

With all the talk of 2007-08 I wish we could find a seasonal snowfall map of the US. The gradient must have been something with the very heavy to record snowfall in the Great Lakes and new England and then crap south of NYC

The NASA model always runs way warmer than the rest and skews the mean. Also lol that Noll talks winter then proceeds to show JFM instead of DJF.

Same here. Detroits earlier measurable snow on record. Some areas had more.

2006 had 0.2" on Oct 12th.

Fwiw dry, mild Falls leading to wet winters are a common Nina theme.

Left the windows open all night with the steady NW breeze..it's now 59 in the house lol.

Several FANTASTIC winters in there for the Lakes! In fact, the only undesirable ones are 2022-23 & 2001-02, but even those had multiple nice snowstorms. But sweet Jesus, 2013-14 x 4!? . That composite gives Detroit an average snowfall of 58.4".

The Euro seasonal makes no sense (at least what I see on weatherbell). It's just a broadbrushed map almost like cpc. The coldest spot in the entire country for DJF is the west coast with an "average" winter and the warmest spot is in the southwest with +2-2.5C. The east coast is +1-1.5C and the southern Great Lakes +1.5-2.0C. Not exactly a blowtorch. The cansips and cfs with much colder to the north and warmer to the south would certainly make more sense in a Nina.

Ninas historically have great Decembers in Michigan. If this December by chance sucks, itll probably be a good February. (One "stand out" month in a Nina is a near given here).

Definitely expecting a mild October. I always prefer cold, but as long as we avoid record warmth, October is a month I don't mind a milder departure because the temps are still comfortable to cool most days, and lots of sun to enjoy the Fall colors. Warm October, cold December is a very common nina occurrence, which is why I'm really Interested to see how December will play out.

I think the mid Feb 1958 event was a widespread storm that fringed us up here and also grazed you, with deep enough cold, in the south, and slammed the east. The strong nino '57-58 winter had its signature mild December but then a frigid Feb. This is where we go from rainy and mild to cold suppression. Seems like no matter which playbook a strong nino follows, it's a surefire way to see a shitty snow season in the southern Great Lakes. BY FAR the worst of any other enso configuration. We still get snow, it's impossible not to, but while most other patterns find ways to give us snow, even when other places suffer, strong ninos do the opposite, repelling everything but scraps and maybe a good spring snowstorm.

1957-58 SUCKED here. If i was alive Id have been furious . Detroit finished the season with 18.0" of snow (still stands as 9th least snowy winter on record). The east was having all the fun. After a rainy December the rest of winter was very dry. It holds the record for the lowest "max" 24-hour snowfall (1.8", set several times that winter). No other winter before or since has failed to receive 2.0" of snow in 24 hours. Two stories of that season- my grandparents wedding was Feb 15, 1958. I heard there was a "blizzard" on her wedding day. Pics showed what look like a few inches of snow. Grandma insisted she remembered a blizzard (you know how that goes lol). Sure enough, records showed the 1.8" snowfall on Feb 15/16 here, but on their honeymoon in Niagra Falls, there were several feet on the ground per pics. The other story, my mom was born March 20, 1958. One of the newspaper headlines that day(cold and flurries here, a trace) was about a massive snowstorm burying the east. And how we were "lucky" the storm bypassed us.

When I was younger, I always read my sisters Little House on the Prairie Book "The Long Winter". That book took place on the Dakota prairie during the winter of 1880-81. The next story in the series (idk remember the name) would have taken place during 1881-82. Although the focus of that book was not on the weather as The Long Winter was, there were some blurbs about how they were trying to get extra precautions in place (autumn 1881) because of the disasters the hard winter the year before caused, and instead the winter ended up being springlike and "open".

I have no idea what any indicies were, but I do know that there were absolutely WILD swings from 1874-1882. In that 8 winter stretch, winters alternated from very warm to very cold each year. Not talking slightly above or below avg, im talking huge departures. Ive always been fascinated by what could have caused that. 150 years later, the winters STILL stand (at Detroit) as: 1874-75: 2nd coldest 1875-76: 19th warmest 1876-77: 19th coldest 1877-78: 16th warmest 1878-79: 14th coldest 1879-80: 12th warmest 1880-81: 13th coldest 1881-82: 1st warmest

Anyone to say we are going into "an exact" weather pattern of "x" years is a downright fool. However I wouldnt necessarily say an "epic fail". Winters circa 2004-2015 definitely had 1970s vibes, while winters since 2016 have had 1950s vibes. And by vibes, i mean similarities, not replicas.

All seasonal forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt. Cansips and CFS are clearly colder than the Euro for this winter for the northern tier.

The cold November/mild December pattern has been very common the last decade. Snow-wise, December has been BY FAR the month that has suffered the most the past decade, even though we have lucked out with several white Christmases. I would LOVE a cold November AND December. We are definitely due for a front loaded, not back loaded winter. Its staggering to see that since 2014, 6 of the 10 years saw November outsnow December at Detroit. For reference, average snowfall in November is 1.9" & December 8.9". 2014: Nov- 4.0", Dec- 0.1" 2015: Nov- 6.2", Dec- 1.3" 2018: Nov- 6.7", Dec- 0.5" 2019: Nov- 9.5", Dec- 2.7" 2021: Nov- 7.1", Dec- 3.3" 2023: Oct- 0.2", Nov- 2.2", Dec- 0.1"