michsnowfreak

I won't hold my breath on that. Snowfall is a world of difference up here from central Ohio. CMH went thru similar and worse stretches from the 1920s-40s. No doubt it will pick up sometime.

clippers at long range have always been one of the models worst features. Thats why Im interested to see if the pros think its a clipper-producing pattern or just model theatrics on some runs.

Id look for some input from @OHweather @Chicago Storm or @RCNYILWX, but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow!

If you lower it to 4", then I can add a bunch more lol. I will say though, its interesting when you look at history. There have been some big snowstorms late in the season in winters that were not cold, snowy, memorable: April 6, 1886- 24.5". THE granddaddy. Winter 1885-86 wasnt memorable to that point. Not a terrible winter, but one that would have finished below avg snowfall if not for this. March 21, 1888 - 8.4". A big snowstorm and record cold hit the lap of spring, about a week after nyc had their infamous storm. Winter was cold but not snowy. March 19, 1906 - 6.7". What a dumpster fire winter. Barely any snow, 60s in January. the best of winter was at the start of spring (also this was a strong nino) March 27, 1913 - 6.5". This storm helped us eclipse the 30" mark in a below avg snow season March 22, 1932 - 7.5". One of the warmest winters on record, not a single day with snowcover til Feb 4th. And a big storm to start spring. March 25, 1933 - 6.0". A November snowstorm dropped 9", this storm 6", and the entire rest of the winter managed a total of about 10" March 27, 1934 - 9.2". What had been a rather dry winter, despite Febs cold, now sees a big storm March 23, 1968 - 7.7". Season snowfall was in the low 20s til this storm came. March 17, 1973 - 9.9". A monster storm in mid-MI (20"+) during a strong el nino March 21, 1983 - 7.3". A strong El Nino that was on pace to smash Detroits least snowy winter...til this happened March 22, 1992 - 7.1". Another strong Nino. This winter had a few good storms and stretches to make it avg in the snow dept, but certainly mild overall

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW. March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0". Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter. There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

Many storms take that path and strengthen without producing 18-24"+ totals. You need a supercharged storm to get that, and those in this region of the country are EXTREMELY rare. Chicago has gotten lucky a few times, but if its a "west" thing, than why do areas of eastern Iowa have worse big storm climo than us? Yes different strokes indeed, fortunately for me, Ill be able to have our climo cooperate more than you will, wanting no cold, snowcover, or overcast skies in winter, just 2'+ storms Storms the last 20 years: In the last 20 years (2004-2023): ………..DTW….ORD 6”+ --- 37 ---- 27 8”+ --- 18 ---- 12 10”+ -- 9 ----- 9 12”+ -- 2 ----- 4 14”+ -- 1 ----- 2 16”+ -- 1 ----- 2 18”+ -- 0 ----- 2 24”+ -- 0 ----- 0

January was definitely the one bright spot for some of the sub so far this winter.

Locally only 3 storms of 6+ thev2nd half of March the past 30 years. We're due. Mar 20, 1996 Mar 25/26, 2002 Mar 21, 2008

You mean in the last 10 years right? We have had some very good snowstorms in the second half of March historically here, and many of them were in decidedly subpar winters.

Knowing by early Fall that the nino was pretty much a sure bet to be strong, it was a guarantee that winter in the overall mean would be mild here. That's literally how every single strong el nino winter on record has gone without exception. So I kind of was prepared for an overall stinker winter but I was hoping that we would get a few good spells and good storms. Those few weeks in january definitely exceeded my expectations for a strong el nino, but on the other hand the rest of the winter is kind of even worse than I imagined, especially farther north.

This system is not a 2 foot snowstorm. We have seen multiple systems that start out just like this and take a favorable track and dump snow on us the last several years. A 2 foot storm is extremely rare. And the east coast is in a record snow drought btw. To say they are overdue for a coastal storm that actually drops snow is an understatement.

Such a tough call. ~Average snowfall from Feb 8th to end of season at DTW is 16.5" more. ~The most on record for that timeframe is 49.4" set in 1900; the least 2.7" set twice, in 1902 & 1969. ~In 143 years of snow records, 41 years saw less than 10" with 102 seeing more than 10". ~Strong El Ninos often see the best snowstorm of the season in March and are often backloaded ~Average last measurable snow is April 17th, over 2 months away While its a given that this winter will not be remembered with a smile, Id have to put odds at simply seeing a total accumulation between now and May of at least 10" at around 70%.

Talk about the glory days...

Seagulls were soaking up the sun and going for rides on ice flows in the Detroit River today.

We certainly have managed to do okay in the total snowfall department in winters that are subpar in many places. But some of the winters have lacked prolonged "deep winter" stretches.

And there are plenty of places in michigan, minnesota, and wisconsin where snowfall totals are not dropping whatsoever. Coming back to Earth after the record snowfall stretch of 2008-2015? Absolutely. Falling overall? Absolutely not.

Im not familiar with Erie's data. I have Detroits snow depth since 1906 (for some reason xmacis starts in 1948) and Ive not seen any glaring errors like that. Im sure some stations were more diligent than others. Eries data doesnt look too bad to me other than wtf happened Jan 31-Feb 1. Clearly something is wrong there. The 1944-45 was a cold and dry winter at Detroit but with excellent snowcover. Its the 3rd longest streak of continuous snowcover (tied w/ 1977-78) behind only 1903-04 & 2013-14. The peak depth here in 1945 was 8". It was one of only 2 good, wintry winters in the 1940s (the other being 1942-43). Detroits most days of 12"+ naturally belong to 2013-14. Top 5: 2013-14: 30 days 1998-99: 17 days 1981-82: 14 days 2014-15: 12 days 2010-11: 11 days

Thats a more balanced approach. When I think of GHDI, I think of how 3 days later we all got 4-6 inches of "partly sunny". Talk about a snow blindsiding forecasters. Then, on Feb 20, what was supposed to be 1-3" of snow turning to freezing rain once again shocked us by being all snow, complete with TSSN, and dropping 10". We MORE than made up for it, and Feb 2011 is Detroits 2nd snowiest Feb (31.7"), behind only 1908. It was also the 4th snowiest month on record (at the time 3rd), behind only Jan 2014, Feb 1908, & Dec 1974. Ive said all the good about GHDII itself, but another thing it did was lay down a deep snowpack for the record cold the next 5 weeks would bring. There was a few inches on the ground pre-storm, but unlike the nonstop storms of 2013-14, in 2014-15 it was a big one-hit wonder (otherwise all nickels and dimes). We have come back to earth since 2016. What I wouldnt give to relive the 2007-15 glory days and all the silly weenie complaints we had at the time during what was the best snow stretch on record. Some complaints of the time- some complained about a storm in 2011 for not dropping enough snow in a month that saw 32". Some complained in 2008 because Detroit got 72" while Madison got 99". My God were we spoiled. In the 7 winters from 2007-08 thru 2013-14, Detroit averaged 59.8". And that INCLUDES the clunker 2011-12. In the 9 winters since, the average has dropped down to, well, near average, at 42.9". One more 2015 post storm pic to show why it was my favorite

I know a lot of people missed the sun. Im indifferent lol.

Id imagine anyone who does that knows they are at mercy of the weather any given season. Plus there are differences. In the Great Lakes we get more snowfalls but less huge storms than the east coast. Snowfall the last 10 winters at DTW (avg 45") has been- 94.9", 47.5", 35.3", 37.9", 61.0", 31.3", 43.7", 44.9", 47.1", 37.1". Simply plowing or salting is more or less steady. Milder winters hurt the ice fishing and snowcover crowds, but we still get multiple snowfalls that need plowing and even more that need salting. During that 2-week stretch this January, some guys were working 20 hour days between the plowing, salting, and redoing from drifting snow. Then the east coast is an entirely different beast. Snow plowing/salting is more feast/famine. Two record low snow years in a row are happening for you guys, but what happens when a massive noreaster hits and drops feet of snow? There has to be someone to plow all the parking lots. Its like the old joke "blame me for no snow because i bought a snowblower". Joe blow sells his plow then next winter youll get 3 monster storms.

Yeah it could be in reference to ice fishing. Snow seasons still literally span Oct-May in the north annually, its just a matter of having thick ice and good snowmobiling conditions during much of winter that is essential for winter tourism in the far north. But even down here most winters have ice fishing on at least smaller lakes at times, so Im sure more of their ice issues are on the Great Lakes rather than smaller lakes. It doesnt matter how much you have warmed, 32F is still freezing. I have a feeling snowmobiling is a bigger part of their problem. We weenies look at thaws as "hopefully Ill still have snow in my yard when it freezes back up" but if a thaw sneaks that far north, even if there will still be plenty snow on the ground when its over, snowmobile trails can essentially be ruined.

Agree. 16-17" downriver.

I mean I never said rates were crazy. Events with crazy rates like Feb 4, 2021 (3" in 1 hour) or Dec 19, 2008 (2-3"/hr for a few hrs) are not talked about because the snowfall total wasnt crazy/they were short events. So now lets criticize a 16.7" storm for only having 1"/hr rates for hours lol. I remember multiple storms with heavier rates than GHDII, but to have that much accumulation from 1 storm was impressive.

Snow rates were at or above 1"/hr in the afternoon. DTW had 6.1" from 1pm-7pm 2-1-15. You joke for that storm to not be over-romanticized despite the heavy total, but yet some have no problem exaggerating the bust of 2-1-11. This pic was taken 2-2-11, but I would expect to see no snow the way some people act like GHD1 busted lol.

To be fair, this is probably a knee jerk reaction to a terrible winter in the Northwoods. Last winter, Minneapolis had its third snowiest winter on record with 95", now they are on pace for their least. I go to northern Michigan every winter, and there's always plenty of snow to play in. This winter is honestly a first that i've seen it like this up there midwinter, although supposedly it happened in 1987 too. In southern Michigan, we have winter festivals and ice carving events, but we don't rely on winter economically like they do in the northern part of the state. The main thing here is plowing and salting, and there's been no decrease in snowfall.