michsnowfreak

Its interesting that February has never seen a minimum temperature of 50°+, considering January is the coldest month of the year, but 8 times has seen a minimum of 50°+ (highest 55° in 1950 & 2008).

Ok yeah that article is ridiculous lol. I've definitely never seen anything that dramatic in the Detroit Free Press. During summertime heatwaves they would list the number of heat prostration. But 70s would not cause that. The Jan 20-22, 1906 warm spell (also a strong nino) was very impressive for the time of year but the above article is similar to modern day clickbait.

This winter was very typical of a strong nino weather wise in the midwest. I've said it a 100 times, strong El ninos are basically guaranteed crummy winters in this region. There has never been a good one. So during a strong nino, you hope some of the other atmospheric factors are on your side for a few good spells. But this year, other than Jan, the Pacific doubled down for an extra F-U.

I have been to Munising several times right around this time of year and this is usually when they have their deepest snow of the season. Usually it's quite a sight to see with snow nearly to the rooftops of many one story houses. So when I saw that the snow depth until the other day was around 6 inches, it was almost unbelievable.

I've said this for years. Agenda pushing extremists with their unrealistic, outlandish "predictions" are CC's own worst enemy. As for temperature swings, that's more of a gray area because there's always been temperature swings, and they are usually magnified in El Nino and La Nina winters. Assuming you mean this winters over for the foreseeable future?

Does anyone have a link to yearly ACE numbers? @raindancewx has me Intrigued lol.

Just flurries floating in the breeze here, but our 24 hour temperature difference of 72 to 26 was impressive.

A lot of parallels to 1877-78 this winter, including the core of the most insane warm departures in the upper midwest. 1877-78 was very mild here too, but ranks as 15th warmest. Most of the other powerhouse warm winters of that era rank higher (1881-82, 1879-80, 1889-90). Detroit will end up as the 4th warmest winter for 2023-24, but still a solid 2° colder than the grandaddy of winter warmth 1881-82.

March 16-18, 1973 total snowfall: Toledo, OH: 4.0" Detroit: 10.1" Flint: 14.3" Saginaw: 21.7" Despite that incredible storm, March 1973 stands as the 6th warmest on record for Detroit (behind only 2012, 1945, 1946, 2000, & 1910). The first half of March (thru the 15th) in 1973 is by far the warmest on record at Detroit, a full 2.5F warmer than 2nd place 2012.

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

What a difference in precipitation. Detroit had the wettest January on record followed by the 4th driest February on record. Feb total at DTW is 0.24" precip, 3.1" snow. Wyandotte is 0.17" precip, 2.5" snow. Jan total at DTW was 5.25" precip, 17.0" snow. Wyandotte 5.14" precip, 16.0" snow.

After an impressive monthly record of 73° yesterday at DTW, and locally very little rain with overnight storms, the temp tumble has begun. So far from 62° at 6am to 38° at 10am.

Glad you are OK Harry! We hardly got anything here. A big clap of thunder just after midnight (no more impressive than the Jan 12 thundersnow) then like a 3 minute downpour of rain, just enough to wet the ground. To my north saw better storms.

Moline was a record smashing 79 yesterday, they are now 17, wind chill -3‍

The winter of 1899-00 was crazy. what started as a very lackluster snow season through january (9.4") saw 58" of snow in Feb-Mar, including a snow depth of 26" March 5. While this was going on in southern MI, it was an extremely light winter up north.

We had such a record stretch of snowy Februarys it seemed as if it would never end. Now we have had 2 duds in a row. Shows that trends break, and makes me feel good that the dud December trend will break soon.

Yeah but each year is different. The max in Jan this year was only 44. Toledo has hit 70 in Jan on a few different occasions (we had a crazy warm spell Jan 20-22, 1906, another strong nino) but it's still extremely rare.

Today will likely set a new monthly maximum, as the record is 70 in 2017/1999. Fun fact- the only month to not hit 70 is January. The warmest temperature is 67° on Jan 25, 1950, however many areas registered over 70 that day, including 72 at Ann Arbor. I suspect present day DTW would have as well. On the flip side, the only month not to have a temperature in the 30s is july, all time low being 42 on July 6, 1972. So theoretically, it is possible, though extremely unlikely, for someone in Southeast Michigan to be as cold as the 30s or as warm as the 70s any month of the year.

Yeah we have had 5 unusually mild winters the last 9 years here, so hoping that comes to an end. But again, the previous 9 winters before that were MUCH colder and featured record snowfall, so all patterns do change eventually. Whether or not we see that change begin next year, I have no clue. It would seem a few neutral years would help but ENSO wants to just go wild anymore lol. Like anyone, I'm always most worried about my backyard, and mild winters here are not an issue for getting snowfall. All out torch months like this winters Dec & Feb, along with poor storm tracks, are what ruins winter here.

After the wettest January on record, this will end up likely being one of the driest Februaries on record, unless we get a really good storm tonight. Thus far, there have only been a few measurable snowfalls, and no measurable rainfall in February.

Again that's just my observation locally. And while the 2015-16 nino certainly did herald in the end of the glory days era and an increase in warm/mild winters, it has not been all bad since then here. This winter is pretty much bottom of the barrel for here.

DTW went from 39° at 11pm 12/22/22 to 1° at 11am 12/23/22.

We had multiple winter weather advisories in January but no warnings. I believe a winter storm watch for something? But I really don't expect a severe thunderstorm watch out of this. We will see.

I had never really heard of ACE until recently. Is it something that we can put on par with things like NAO, PDO, etc? And how high does this year's ACE rank? I may have missed it earlier in the thread. What's ironic looking at the top 10 highest ACE years and following winters, the worst one here was 1995-96, and that was a product of being in a cold, dry screwzone. It was a cold winter, just a nightmare of missed snow chances. Most of the others were good winters, and nearly all had an abnormally snowy month (a common characteristic of ninas locally as well). But the best takeaway is that none of them were close to the widespread atrocity this winter was.

Nothing is ever a guarantee. But it's always a best bet to play the odds. Have their been dud la ninas here? Yes. But the overall odds favor a much better winter. And for the same Northwoods areas that are setting records for low snow in northern MN and northern MI this winter, the odds are even stronger for bountiful snow next winter. One trend that is quite strong here locally in a la nina, regardless of strength, is having one well above avg snow month. For some reason it's usually December or February. Ill defer analyzing New England to those familiar with the climo but I do feel that a handful of bad winters, which are a combination of both bad patterns AND bad luck, are jading things a bit. It was not that long ago that everyone from the Great Lakes to the New England was destroying climo with abundant snow seemingly no matter what the pattern was. Things do change and patterns don't last forever. Lastly, one rule I have always followed in weather. And I KNOW this is not popular among some. Is that when you have a great winter, or string of them, the odds increase that a stinker is coming up...and it works vice versa. It's gone on since the beginning of climate record.