michsnowfreak

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

Normals change every 10 years though, so if your climate has consistently warmed, it'll show in the next set of normals. Winters won't always be warmer and less snowy than normal, because then normal wouldn't be normal. Yes, the past 10 years have seen mild winters dominate. But the prior 10 years saw quite a bit of cold. Weather also tends to go in cycles regardless of whst is "normal".

Fair points. Definitely on a national scale March 2012 was insane. Even more crazy considering it was surrounded by harsh winters both before and after (not the mild stretch weve been in recently), and March is a winter month for many. One correction I do have to make on Feb 2015. While it was indeed Detroits 2nd coldest Feb on record, it was the coldest since 1875. It beat out the old 2nd place by 0.7F. Feb of 1875 was unprecedentedly cold. Many areas in the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest (that had records go that far back) had 1875 & 2024 as either 1 & 2 or 2 & 1. For the many stations that dont go to the 1870s, then Feb 2015 takes home the top spot. You mentioned 1882, assumably in error, as that is actually Detroits WARMEST Feb on record. Detroits coldest Febs: 1875: 12.2F 2015: 14.1F 1934: 14.8F 1936: 16.0F 1904: 16.1F

I read this post a bit Tip like lol. Not sure exactly what you're saying? Meaning nickels and dimes or mix events on the coast? Obviously we thrive at nickels and dimes in the Lakes, but that's what makes winter winter to me. We get good storms, but the number of smaller events is usually what makes or breaks a season.

Mid November, Christmas week, late January to early Feb and the first half of March were wintry. Definitely had a few fun storms. But the rest of 22-23 sucked. The scenery the last third of Jan was gorgeous because of wet snowstorms on Jan 22 & 25. But when you're getting wet snow in the dead of winter up here, you know it's a mild pattern.

That is true. There are so many fascinating features to the weather, that its really hard to keep them straight. One thing I have ALWAYS said since Ive been on the weather boards, is that in eastern Michigan, we are kinda split between "whats good for the midwest" or "whats good for the east". I kick myself for not saving this list someone made years ago...it was snowstorms and what the NAO was. Many of them did, in fact, come with a +NAO. I typically associate -NAO with cold, clippers, and suppression. It can be a good thing if theres a good snowpack and a clipper parade, but it can suck if its cold and dry with everything going way south.

It was. In fact, thats another example of why we are due in December, because the historical frequency of very wintry Decembers in a Nina has not reared its head as much the last few ninas. After back to back good Decembers in 2016 & 2017, its been December blahs since. We have had abnormally snowy Novembers, Januarys, Februarys, Marchs, & Aprils. Its Decembers turn. The Christmas cold snap did make Dec 2022 show as just a slightly mild month though. If more of the west cold dumped further east, it couldve easily finished colder. STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 39 27 33 -3 32 0 T T 0 12.1 28 280 M M 8 36 280 2 53 31 42 7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 35 210 M M 10 48 220 3 53 26 40 5 25 0 0.03 0.0 0 18.6 39 280 M M 8 1 58 290 4 37 20 29 -5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 18 230 M M 2 24 220 5 45 25 35 1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.9 20 200 M M 7 25 190 6 47 40 44 10 21 0 0.01 0.0 0 3.9 15 140 M M 10 18 19 150 7 47 42 45 11 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 4.2 9 320 M M 10 18 13 330 8 44 34 39 6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 13 330 M M 10 16 340 9 38 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 12.2 22 60 M M 10 29 60 10 37 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 8.1 16 60 M M 10 23 60 11 41 35 38 6 27 0 T T 0 6.7 12 310 M M 10 18 15 300 12 38 32 35 3 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 12 60 M M 10 17 40 13 35 30 33 1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 15 60 M M 10 23 60 14 41 32 37 5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.7 21 90 M M 9 38 100 15 45 36 41 10 24 0 0.74 0.0 0 11.2 22 90 M M 10 1 36 110 16 36 30 33 2 32 0 T 0.1 0 11.6 22 240 M M 10 1 28 240 17 31 27 29 -2 36 0 T 0.1 T 13.9 21 240 M M 10 27 240 18 28 23 26 -4 39 0 T 0.2 T 15.5 21 260 M M 10 28 250 19 30 24 27 -3 38 0 T T T 9.0 16 280 M M 10 M M 20 35 25 30 0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 14 200 M M 8 18 200 21 33 22 28 -2 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 9 130 M M 8 18 13 100 22 41 30 36 6 29 0 0.25 T 0 6.8 20 290 M M 10 18 26 300 23 34 0 17 -12 48 0 0.11 2.2 1 26.3 35 230 M M 10 19 48 260 24 15 1 8 -21 57 0 0.02 0.3 2 24.9 36 230 M M 10 9 47 230 25 16 12 14 -15 51 0 0.05 2.1 3 15.6 23 220 M M 10 1 29 230 26 22 13 18 -11 47 0 T T 4 10.0 15 220 M M 10 19 220 27 29 19 24 -4 41 0 T T 3 11.2 20 220 M M 10 8 27 220 28 41 29 35 7 30 0 0.00 0.0 3 14.3 24 210 M M 10 32 220 29 53 33 43 15 22 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.5 18 210 M M 9 24 200 30 55 47 51 23 14 0 0.62 0.0 0 11.5 22 220 M M 10 1 28 220 31 47 37 42 14 23 0 0.50 0.0 0 6.5 13 250 M M 10 18 16 300 ================================================================================ SM 1186 846 993 0 2.34 5.0 342.8 M 289

Ive said this many times, but Ill say it again. Without analyzing anything currently going on, one thing that stands out to me here is the frequency of cold/snowy Decembers in a nina/nina pattern. Whats more, those often immediately follow mild or warm Autumns. Is it a slam dunk? Absolutely not. But when isolating the nina years, the frequency of good Decembers is far above overall climo.

Don, are you leaning towards wet/snowy for the Great Lakes as are some of the other forecasts?

As I recall, September is considered to be, on average, the sunniest month of the year here. Always happy to welcome the BER months!

In other news. Picked up another 0.48" yesterday evening, for a 2-day total of 1.99". The impressive thing was not so much the rainfall total, but that it came over the course of 3 or 4 very impressive thunderstorms. The one last evening produced a nice wall cloud, per a fellow weather observers video, but I missed it as I was not in the area when it happened. This was on top of the squall line the day before that produced 50-75mph winds, and thunderstorms at 2am yesterday that woke me up (a rare occurrence for me).

March 2012 was obviously impressive, but I don’t recall any 90s in MI. The hottest temps in MI at the first order stations were: 86F at Detroit, 86F Flint, 87F Saginaw, 87F Alpena, 83F Sault Ste Marie, 85F Houghton Lake, 81F Marquette, 87F Grand Rapids, 86F Lansing, 82F Muskegon. With that said, March 2012 gets talked about plenty (rightly so), but I dont feel Feb 2015 gets NEAR its due. We do talk about the snowy/harsh winters of the time, but rarely is Feb 2015 singled out for its brutal cold, whereas March 2012 is brought up everytime orange shows up on a model map after Feb 1st. At DTW: Mar 2012: Monthly departure: +13.5F. Highest daily departure: +31F Feb 2015: Monthly departure: -13.9F. Highest daily departure: -29F (3 times).

True but supposedly the atmosphere is behaving nina like.

Very impressive 76 mph gust at DTW. It was windy here, but I'd estimate closer to 50-55 mph. Multiple storms gave me a 24 hour rainfall total of 1.51".

This summer was mostly pleasant here. In fact it should have been way hotter than it was. La nina summers, especially summers that transition from nino to nina, are traditionally scorching hot, which I was bracing for. Simply didn't happen. @mississaugasnow I was close in my guess. DTW hit 95 yesterday, which ties as the hottest temp of the year.

1970 is actually 54 years ago (I know thats what you meant when referencing Chicagos winter temps, because 1970 is THE gold standard for starting-point to overstate winter warming). When you look at period of record, Chicagos (1874-2024) avg winter temp has risen 0.3F, but their summer has risen 3.2F, although Chicago averages WAY LESS 90F+ days now than they did in the 1950s. Yes I am aware station location changes, something all stations face. And Im also aware of terrain, cement/dirt changes surrounding weather stations as well. Thats what happens when time doesnt stand still.

He clearly is not aware of TCC's posting style lol.

It was more impressive from a standpoint of being 3 weeks later, but id still say 1953 was more impressive in Chicago. At Detroit, its not even a contest. 1953 all the way. Chicago 2017 09-20: 92/62 09-21: 94/72 09-22: 94/71 09-23: 95/72 09-24: 93/70 09-25: 92/67 09-26: 92/70 Chicago 1953 08-24: 90/63 08-25: 95/66 08-26: 97/68 08-27: 97/70 08-28: 97/69 08-29: 98/70 08-30: 96/71 08-31: 99/74 09-01: 101/76 09-02: 101/75 09-03: 97/75 *** Detroit 2017 09-21: 89/67 09-22: 89/68 09-23: 91/65 09-24: 89/66 09-25: 90/68 09-26: 93/68 Detroit 1953 08-25: 92/64 08-26: 96/71 08-27: 95/69 08-28: 96/67 08-29: 96/71 08-30: 97/71 08-31: 97/71 09-01: 98/70 09-02: 100/76 09-03: 100/71 09-04: 91/61 ************************************** September 2, 1953 was an insane day for time of year in this neck of the woods: Detroit: 100/76 Alpena: 97/70 Cleveland: 101/73 Toledo: 100/72 Cincinnati: 102/72 Columbus: 100/68 Indianapolis: 100/67 Fort Wayne: 100/70 South Bend: 98/72 Peoria: 99/72 Chicago: 101/75 Moline: 99/71 Milwaukee: 96/74 Madison: 98/71

There was literally a historic heatwave ongoing at this exact time in 1953. It lasted 11 days. If that heatwave were to happen today EXACTLY the same, I cannot imagine this extremism of posts we would see. Also, how is heat and humidity highly unusual in August? . Many times August is the hottest month of the summer. Detroits 20 hottest temps on/after 8/25:

2007-08 was a fantastic winter snow-wise. Extremely, extremely active in the Great Lakes region from Dec-Mar.

1966-67 was the best winter of the 1960s in the midwest/Great Lakes. From a record snowy November, to the infamous Chicago blizzard Jan 26-27, then a cold/snowy Feb/Mar and a late April snowfall. Jan 1967 was indeed mild, but the record or near record warmth Jan 22-25 likely helped set the stage for the record winter storm Jan 26-27.

We had a few oppressive days in June where heat indexes neared 100F. The hottest temp was 95F on June 17th. Surprisingly, Detroit has logged 12 days of 90F+ this year (6 in June, 1 July, 5 August) but the other 11 were all between 90-92. Last year there was literally zero oppressive heat (only 2 days touched 90F, and just barely). We really get very few days in the mid-90s or higher anymore, something that was so common place 1930-1960. I can see Windsor from the Detroit River here in Wyandotte! Stay cool!

Idk. Maybe 93-94?

Its 90/75 at Marquette. Shocked they dont have a heat advisory in the UP.

Ridge overhead will make it very hot...but what in the world does "a completely different era of climate" have to do with anything? Like most midwest places, Chicagos greatest concentration of 90s was in the mid-20th century. Blame it on the dustbowl, blame it on todays humidity, blame on whatever you want, but it was easier to get the real hot temps back then than it is now. Annual 90+ days at Chicago 1930s- 19 1940s- 23 1950s- 28 1960s- 19 1970s- 21 1980s- 22 1990s- 16 2000s- 13 2010s- 19