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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    No mild weather as far as the ensembles or weeklies can see...but obviously we know how the models are lol.
  2. michsnowfreak
    Not sure if it's been mentioned, but both the Euro and it's ensembles come out a bit earlier now.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Euro weeklies look good. Weeks 1-3 colder than avg, weeks 4-6 near avg.
  4. michsnowfreak
    Euro weeklies continue to look good.
  5. michsnowfreak
    Looks like a LES/Clipper pattern will be setting up shop for a while. Always run the risk of cold and dry but a reminder- clipper patterns are probably THE most unpredictable patterns outside of a several day lead time. Modeled clippers can vanish and others pop out of nowhere.
  6. michsnowfreak
    It's looking like a LES/Clipper pattern. As we know, clippers are probably THE most difficult pattern to forecast more than a handful of days out. Always run the risk of cold and dry but what an unexpected early start to good winter weather.
  7. michsnowfreak
    If I judge a winter on just total snowfall and not all other factors like cold and snowfall, then I guess I really need to give a lot more credit to the post-2015 era and less credit to the fact it was mild.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Funny story about that. As you know, Detroit had record snowfall, snowcover, and snow depth that winter. There was snow on the ground continuously from Dec 8 - Mar 29. It was deep most of the time and the ONLY exception was a thaw (no torch here) just before Christmas that made Christmas week see snowcover down to T-1" before ramping back up Jan 1st. While it was cold with spotty old snow and a fresh dusting for Christmas, it was literally the only time from early Dec until late Mar that grass was visible.
  9. michsnowfreak
    While that's true, another thing to note is that the colder departures going south could be in part due to socking Michigan, northern IN/OH, and upstate NY in overcast while other areas are more clear.
  10. michsnowfreak
    My family is going to cut down our Christmas trees Sun, Dec 1st. How fun would that be to have it snow!
  11. michsnowfreak
    Yes that's exactly right. You know you're in a clipper pattern, but some modeled events fade away and others can surprise and pop up out of nowhere.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Its kind of a given, but if the ingredients come together right, there could be some major LES in the coming weeks. Your talking well above avg lake water temps and well below avg air temps to end November and start December. Theres going to be some regardless, but already will have a few of the key ingredients in place for a major outbreak.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Yikes, I did have that math off. However shall I recover from being burned by an agenda pushing troll who annoys almost every poster in every subforum with excessive cherry picked drivel.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Since youre relatively new to the midwest, I will tell you that if we can get a clipper pattern going, that is fun as well!
  15. michsnowfreak
    LMAO. I have him blocked so i only see stuff if someone quotes him. Someone needs reading comprehension Im guessing. Apparently since 2024 has been a warm year, the cold pattern coming up cant be called a cold pattern. . Im very worried about being at 11% of avg snowfall thru November 21st though. Back in 2019, we were at 1,188% of avg snowfall as of November 21st, and that imminently led to a season of 1,188% snowfall I assume (I just have to confirm DTW saw 53,460 inches of snow in 2019-20).
  16. michsnowfreak
    I'm actually pleasantly surprised how December looks to start with well below average temps. Until very recently Dec was looking mild, so this is a treat. I'll worry about mid December and beyond later. Not going to start extrapolating the 384 hr gfs
  17. michsnowfreak
    White christmas on the east coast/new england this year lol. There is no possible meteorological explanation why those grinch storms always hit you at Christmas other than bad luck. Its bound to change. Our general White Christmas (1"+ snowcover) climo here is 50/50 and there's been no trend away from that in recent years.
  18. michsnowfreak
    What was his username? I don't seem to remember
  19. michsnowfreak
    2013 wasn't just a cold winter, it was a brutally cold winter. Combined with the heavy snow it was historic here. That's why when I see all the main analogs constantly mentioned here, even though some of them are respectable winters and not all mild, 2013-14 sticks out like a beautifully sore thumb.
  20. michsnowfreak
    He will likely lay low as he normally does during cold patterns.
  21. michsnowfreak
    Another good point. Perfect for all the ski resorts to get lots of snow made for an early base.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Good point. We have had some really dynamic storms in the milder winters that have produced postcard scenes but are heart attacks waiting to happen while shoveling and a waste of some snow qpf due to low ratios. A clipper pattern early in the season with arctic air and warm lakes is not a bad idea.
  23. michsnowfreak
    I was just coming to post....weeklies continue to get colder.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Very impressive, but they didnt get that in a single event last year? I guess there really is quite the difference between ORD and lakeshore.
  25. michsnowfreak
    how much did downtown get?
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