michsnowfreak

Raindance would be creaming his pants if he were still here. It is always nice to see these first storms really produce. Even though it has zero effect on me, its nice to know that winter is starting to get its act together.

On March 20/21, 1983, a snowstorm dropped 7.3" at Detroit. Another late snowfall hit 2 days earlier than yours, April 17, 1983. DTW saw 3.4" from this but northern suburbs had 6". Backing up, through March 19th DTW was at an unprecedentedly low 9.0" season total. Some older people STILL talk about that winter as the winter that wasnt. (it was also 64F on Christmas). 1982-83 was similar to 2011-12 in that it was an absolutely terrible winter surrounded before and after by cold, snowy winters, which probably made it seem even worse.

This is why I think the east coast, regardless of how much their winters warm, have yet to see their biggest snowstorm on record. One day the ingredients will come together just right, add in the already robust components of a noreaster but give it more moisture to work with...watch out.

72-73 was an ok winter here, avg snow but not good retention. 82-83 was terrible outside of 2 spring snowstorms. 97-98 sucked but at least had ok periods. I cant imagine the frustration in 72-73 for people in NYC or DC seeing the southeast get a snowstorm when they had a literally snowless winter.

This x 100. And by no means am I taking ANY cracks at tips intelligence. I just think it goes too far sometimes. The Great Lakes add an entire different aspect to the climate. Which is why in a "perfect world" the changes in local climate (which arent drastic) can be beneficial (slightly milder temps but more precip/snow) but there will still be great years and terrible years. Im not an ice fisherman who doesnt care how little snow we get as long as the ice is thick. Im the opposite. JB gets his flack and rightly so but honestly, hes probably more intelligent than he gets credit for. If he posted in here on a daily basis, hed be the cold version of snowman/bluewave. Its one thing to have bias, but think of just HOW much more about the weather people like us know than people that swear by the little icons on their phone telling them todays weather.

Lmao! Every aspect of the weather- it could be a clear, calm, seasonable day- is climate change with you. Every post, every everything. And what's funny is you act like you are fighting some battle against a group of climate deniers...no one in here ever denounces cc. But God forbid someone discusses a weather pattern without putting in a tip-mandated comment about cc. As 40/70 said, instant butthurt. And I am just fine with my climate, thank you. I know you think you are an expert on the subject and you love to throw around extreme scenarios that wont happen. We literally JUST had our snowiest period in recorded history 2007-15. Not by a little, by a lot. The winters of the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than avg. Even with all the milder winters since 2016 weve only had a few below avg snow seasons. Keep fantasizing about your 90° winter temps.

Maybe that is why those who were looking forward to the el nino winter in the east were disappointed. I never, ever have high hopes for a strong nino winter (again, everything being relative to climo...winter in MI...it WILL snow). I always have much higher hopes in la nina winters, with caution of course applied to all the other factors at play.

Patterns and indices are definitely not my strong suit, but I know that sensible weather has definitely not matched December to the rest of winter more often than not. Even last year, torch Dec followed by much colder and snowy Jan. In 2021-22, a very warm Dec was followed by a very cold Jan/Feb. While the La Nina winter of 2017-18 was cold & snowy throughout, the winter of 2016-17 had a cold, snowy Dec followed by a very mild Jan/Feb. Now, I know sensible weather sometimes has to catch up to some of the patterns/indicies/etc, but I DO know that the weather of December has not necessarily been a harbinger of winter the past decade (or really, ever). Some years, yes, but many years, no.

Lmao so true. Tip always has that lotion at the ready.

I doubt it. That's not long ago, the climate has not changed THAT much.

I was referring more to synoptic snowstorms. LES is fun of course, but since im outside the lake belts (Detroit suburbs), its more mood flakes, squalls, dustings, and 1-3" type events. Definitely adds to the mood, but its never a make or break for a winter like it is in Buffalo or Marquette. La Nina winters, good or bad, tend to have plenty of potential. Theres almost always an active storm track, almost always a roller coaster, and almost always a large temp gradient in the US. What this winter looks like when the final numbers are totaled remains to be seen, but Ive never in my life lived through a stagnant, non-changing winter in MI, and I certainly dont expect to do so in a la nina winter. Its a long season. Even the beginning of December isnt going to tell me much for winter as a whole, just for December. Ive learned to always take winter one month at a time at the MOST. Im not very good when it comes to all these indicies at all, Im more of a climo/know the weather type. Its so early, as of this point, I really have to stick with what I said the other day - there are things I really like for this season, and things i really dont.

We've had quite a few cold Novembers in recent years (8 of the past 12 colder than avg) but it's been striking how often novembers pattern has differed from winter the past decade here. For the heck if it, I looked at the top 20 warmest and coldest Novembers on record. Of the 20 warmest, 14 saw warmer than avg winters and 6 saw colder than avg winters. Of the 20 coldest, 10 saw warmer than avg winters and 10 colder than avg.

DTW actually finished -0.4°F in 2021-22 but that had us a little over +1°C. Like I said though, always a grain of salt. That does look like a decent overall prediction by the Euro tho. Once we start getting snowstorms to track, it'll be interesting to see if Euro has regained it's king status of several years ago.

Honestly though seasonal models need to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, so that's something you can look at next spring (if the Euro had the same bias as it did before). A more extreme scenario of the Euro (colder and warmer anomalies than shown) is all but a guarantee, especially In a nina.

I know it's so dry but rain once the growing season is over isn't something I really care about. Definitely liking a more active pattern finally developing as winter nears.

I had 0.02" lol

I forgot I was talking to someone who is post-limited and doesn't actually save those posts for anything other than trolling.

Oh I have no doubt itll be an excellent snow year for the northern Lakes. For the southern Lakes there are some things I like and some things I don't like.

I agree. But it's still good for the northern US. It's what causes those nina crazy temp gradients.

75-76 had a snowy December, a cold January, then a blowtorch second half of Feb. Overall it was a good winter. In fact 1973-74 thru 1978-79 were all decent winters wrt cold or snow.

Even the euro, by far the warmest of the seasonal models for the northern US & Canada, is much cooler in western and southern Canada this winter, which is always a good sign for good periods in the northern US.

HIGHLY doubt we will be >+7F this winter (Nov a slight possibility). Yes, the 3 instances of warm Novembers led to warm winters, but the moral of the story is there is no overall correlation. There have been more cold than warm Novembers lately (8 of the last 12 were colder than avg), so its not an even playing field. A better way of looking at it... 2023: Near avg November led to very mild winter 2022: Mild November led to very mild winter 2021: Cold November led to near avg winter 2020: Very mild November led to near avg winter 2019: Very cold November led to very mild winter 2018: Very cold November led to near avg winter 2017: Cold November led to cold winter 2016: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2015: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2014: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2013: Very cold November led to very cold winter 2012: Cold November led to mild winter 2011: Very mild November led to very mild winter 2010: Mild November led to very cold winter EDIT- For the hell of it, I ran the top 20 coldest & warmest Novembers... Of the top 20 coldest Novembers, 6 of the winters were milder than avg, 14 were colder. Of the top 20 warmest Novembers, 10 of the winters were milder than avg, 10 were colder

The Euro is the warmest seasonal forecast in the north, but also their forecast is always far too broadbrushed (almost more like a probability forecast). The cfs/cansips are much colder in the north. As for precip, cansips seems to be the driest for the east coast. Cfs/euro aren't too bad.

That November was one of the warmest on record....then we had a snowstorm on Thanksgiving.

Initially I was thinking we were due for a more frontloaded winter, especially as those can happen in Ninas, but with latest trends Im actually liking December less and January more.