michsnowfreak

That was pretty cool actually

A milder than avg autumn is very nina like.

So below normal temps the first half of September are "typical up and down" but above normal temps the 2nd half are warmth taking over?

It was mostly pleasant because once again, extreme heat was extremely limited despite widespread expectations of a very hot summer. July thru mid August, the hottest time of the year, was slightly cooler than normal. And again...it was expected to be torrid. A mid June heatwave was gross....and there was also heat at the end of August which made that month slightly warmer than normal instead of cooler. But with the nina state of the atmosphere and a tendency for hot summers the last 15 years, I would have expected at minimum a top 10 hottest summer. Also, continuously rising min temps keep raising the summers avg, not max temps. Max temps are what do me in personally, and we don't get nearly as many "extreme" hot days as back in the day.

This is very interesting. Those years of low ACE were ALL decent to good to great winters here with the HUGE exception of 1931-32.

What's the best JMA link?

I am not too familiar with the WPO but obviously it makes a difference (there are SO many indicies, I used to think the only ones were the NAO and MJO lol). This map is a good example of the battleground that a temp contrast can do. Minneapolis had one of their snowiest winters on record in 2022-23, being the battleground between warm & cold. We did ok in 2022-23 despite the warmth, finishing only slightly below avg in snowfall (and at that, snowfall was MUCH wetter and lower ratio than normal, so the precip was there). This is another example, and you have pointed it out as well, that regardless of warmth, there is a certain latitudinal line where once you go north of it, if you get the precip, you will get the snow. Snowcover often suffers far more than actual snowfall in northern locations in warm winters. Another thing, you give the atmosphere the temp contrasts of a cold north and a warm south, and add in an active storm track, then you will have some great winter storms. Though I know we look better here in the great lakes than the east, I just dont think it will be as bad on the east coast as some make it sound.

These looks like pretty typical la nina forecasts to me. Colder than avg in the already cold north and warner than avg in the already warm south.

Thanks! Even nailing the pattern I'd never have expected so much snow, wind, amd bitter cold as we had. The jma link you sent stops in April 2024.

Incredible weather outside. The crispness of early Fall will definitely be in the air layer this week!

1973-74 was a good winter here. 2013-14 was the most severe winter in recorded history and i doubt ill ever see that again.

Normals change every 10 years though, so if your climate has consistently warmed, it'll show in the next set of normals. Winters won't always be warmer and less snowy than normal, because then normal wouldn't be normal. Yes, the past 10 years have seen mild winters dominate. But the prior 10 years saw quite a bit of cold. Weather also tends to go in cycles regardless of whst is "normal".

Fair points. Definitely on a national scale March 2012 was insane. Even more crazy considering it was surrounded by harsh winters both before and after (not the mild stretch weve been in recently), and March is a winter month for many. One correction I do have to make on Feb 2015. While it was indeed Detroits 2nd coldest Feb on record, it was the coldest since 1875. It beat out the old 2nd place by 0.7F. Feb of 1875 was unprecedentedly cold. Many areas in the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest (that had records go that far back) had 1875 & 2024 as either 1 & 2 or 2 & 1. For the many stations that dont go to the 1870s, then Feb 2015 takes home the top spot. You mentioned 1882, assumably in error, as that is actually Detroits WARMEST Feb on record. Detroits coldest Febs: 1875: 12.2F 2015: 14.1F 1934: 14.8F 1936: 16.0F 1904: 16.1F

I read this post a bit Tip like lol. Not sure exactly what you're saying? Meaning nickels and dimes or mix events on the coast? Obviously we thrive at nickels and dimes in the Lakes, but that's what makes winter winter to me. We get good storms, but the number of smaller events is usually what makes or breaks a season.

Mid November, Christmas week, late January to early Feb and the first half of March were wintry. Definitely had a few fun storms. But the rest of 22-23 sucked. The scenery the last third of Jan was gorgeous because of wet snowstorms on Jan 22 & 25. But when you're getting wet snow in the dead of winter up here, you know it's a mild pattern.

That is true. There are so many fascinating features to the weather, that its really hard to keep them straight. One thing I have ALWAYS said since Ive been on the weather boards, is that in eastern Michigan, we are kinda split between "whats good for the midwest" or "whats good for the east". I kick myself for not saving this list someone made years ago...it was snowstorms and what the NAO was. Many of them did, in fact, come with a +NAO. I typically associate -NAO with cold, clippers, and suppression. It can be a good thing if theres a good snowpack and a clipper parade, but it can suck if its cold and dry with everything going way south.

It was. In fact, thats another example of why we are due in December, because the historical frequency of very wintry Decembers in a Nina has not reared its head as much the last few ninas. After back to back good Decembers in 2016 & 2017, its been December blahs since. We have had abnormally snowy Novembers, Januarys, Februarys, Marchs, & Aprils. Its Decembers turn. The Christmas cold snap did make Dec 2022 show as just a slightly mild month though. If more of the west cold dumped further east, it couldve easily finished colder. STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2022 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 39 27 33 -3 32 0 T T 0 12.1 28 280 M M 8 36 280 2 53 31 42 7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 35 210 M M 10 48 220 3 53 26 40 5 25 0 0.03 0.0 0 18.6 39 280 M M 8 1 58 290 4 37 20 29 -5 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 18 230 M M 2 24 220 5 45 25 35 1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.9 20 200 M M 7 25 190 6 47 40 44 10 21 0 0.01 0.0 0 3.9 15 140 M M 10 18 19 150 7 47 42 45 11 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 4.2 9 320 M M 10 18 13 330 8 44 34 39 6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 13 330 M M 10 16 340 9 38 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 12.2 22 60 M M 10 29 60 10 37 32 35 2 30 0 T T 0 8.1 16 60 M M 10 23 60 11 41 35 38 6 27 0 T T 0 6.7 12 310 M M 10 18 15 300 12 38 32 35 3 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 12 60 M M 10 17 40 13 35 30 33 1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 15 60 M M 10 23 60 14 41 32 37 5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.7 21 90 M M 9 38 100 15 45 36 41 10 24 0 0.74 0.0 0 11.2 22 90 M M 10 1 36 110 16 36 30 33 2 32 0 T 0.1 0 11.6 22 240 M M 10 1 28 240 17 31 27 29 -2 36 0 T 0.1 T 13.9 21 240 M M 10 27 240 18 28 23 26 -4 39 0 T 0.2 T 15.5 21 260 M M 10 28 250 19 30 24 27 -3 38 0 T T T 9.0 16 280 M M 10 M M 20 35 25 30 0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.6 14 200 M M 8 18 200 21 33 22 28 -2 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 9 130 M M 8 18 13 100 22 41 30 36 6 29 0 0.25 T 0 6.8 20 290 M M 10 18 26 300 23 34 0 17 -12 48 0 0.11 2.2 1 26.3 35 230 M M 10 19 48 260 24 15 1 8 -21 57 0 0.02 0.3 2 24.9 36 230 M M 10 9 47 230 25 16 12 14 -15 51 0 0.05 2.1 3 15.6 23 220 M M 10 1 29 230 26 22 13 18 -11 47 0 T T 4 10.0 15 220 M M 10 19 220 27 29 19 24 -4 41 0 T T 3 11.2 20 220 M M 10 8 27 220 28 41 29 35 7 30 0 0.00 0.0 3 14.3 24 210 M M 10 32 220 29 53 33 43 15 22 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.5 18 210 M M 9 24 200 30 55 47 51 23 14 0 0.62 0.0 0 11.5 22 220 M M 10 1 28 220 31 47 37 42 14 23 0 0.50 0.0 0 6.5 13 250 M M 10 18 16 300 ================================================================================ SM 1186 846 993 0 2.34 5.0 342.8 M 289

Ive said this many times, but Ill say it again. Without analyzing anything currently going on, one thing that stands out to me here is the frequency of cold/snowy Decembers in a nina/nina pattern. Whats more, those often immediately follow mild or warm Autumns. Is it a slam dunk? Absolutely not. But when isolating the nina years, the frequency of good Decembers is far above overall climo.

Don, are you leaning towards wet/snowy for the Great Lakes as are some of the other forecasts?

As I recall, September is considered to be, on average, the sunniest month of the year here. Always happy to welcome the BER months!

In other news. Picked up another 0.48" yesterday evening, for a 2-day total of 1.99". The impressive thing was not so much the rainfall total, but that it came over the course of 3 or 4 very impressive thunderstorms. The one last evening produced a nice wall cloud, per a fellow weather observers video, but I missed it as I was not in the area when it happened. This was on top of the squall line the day before that produced 50-75mph winds, and thunderstorms at 2am yesterday that woke me up (a rare occurrence for me).

March 2012 was obviously impressive, but I don’t recall any 90s in MI. The hottest temps in MI at the first order stations were: 86F at Detroit, 86F Flint, 87F Saginaw, 87F Alpena, 83F Sault Ste Marie, 85F Houghton Lake, 81F Marquette, 87F Grand Rapids, 86F Lansing, 82F Muskegon. With that said, March 2012 gets talked about plenty (rightly so), but I dont feel Feb 2015 gets NEAR its due. We do talk about the snowy/harsh winters of the time, but rarely is Feb 2015 singled out for its brutal cold, whereas March 2012 is brought up everytime orange shows up on a model map after Feb 1st. At DTW: Mar 2012: Monthly departure: +13.5F. Highest daily departure: +31F Feb 2015: Monthly departure: -13.9F. Highest daily departure: -29F (3 times).

True but supposedly the atmosphere is behaving nina like.

Very impressive 76 mph gust at DTW. It was windy here, but I'd estimate closer to 50-55 mph. Multiple storms gave me a 24 hour rainfall total of 1.51".

This summer was mostly pleasant here. In fact it should have been way hotter than it was. La nina summers, especially summers that transition from nino to nina, are traditionally scorching hot, which I was bracing for. Simply didn't happen. @mississaugasnow I was close in my guess. DTW hit 95 yesterday, which ties as the hottest temp of the year.