michsnowfreak

lol. still way too early to have confidence in any solution.

Same with DTX; they mention a possible winter storm, very unusual for them this far out as they are conservative

DTX just issued their winter forecast. Slightly above avg temps, above avg precip, near avg snowfall for December. Then average temps, above avg precip, and near to above avg snowfall

consistency of a storm is very good for so far out, of course where it goes no one knows. Unlike the rather last minute Detroit snowfall Sunday and Chicagos snow today, this one will be dissected all week. Let the model mayhem of the 2020-21 season commence!

it was the biggest snowstorm of the winter 1950-51 at Detroit with 6.3", but if I lived thru it in SE MI I'd be insanely jealous of further east lol. The biggest November snowstorm on record for Detroit is 9.2" set wayyy back Nov 11/12, 2019 lol.

Oh for sure. it was a very blah stretch of Novembers 2009- 0 (only 2nd Nov without a flake) 2010- T (slow start to an almost 70" season) 2011- 0.6" (this fell last day of November) 2012- 0.4" 2013- 1.2" (only 94" more to go lol)

lol you're prediction happily failed and we still have almost 5 months of snowstorm potential to go. Joking aside, I had a feeling Toronto would get it good. thermals were meh here but zero complaints about a snowy November Sunday. Model qpf was on point but ratios were terrible. I've not yet emptied my gauge but DTW had 0.58" precip, 1.9" snow. About 0.40-0.45" of that fell as snow.

my thoughts exactly

After the first 2/3 of November featured unusually sunny, quiet weather, the stormy pattern starting to show up in late November is right on cue. Here's to a stormy Winter ahead! I am sure there will be plenty of annoyances along the way (rain, model failures, torches etc.) but overall I feel Nina is going to help us have some fun times ahead.

After starting as a few hours of light rain, it has been snowing nonstop since around 6:00 a.m. qpf definitely verified however it's extremely water logged snow. Cold spots & elevation mean everything in this borderline event. Snow has been slowly melting for hours even though it has never stopped snowing lol. a general 1-4" around SE MI depending on location. Should finish just under 2" here but not that much otg now. Went to the park earlier and drove around, the pic of conifers was the highest area i found while driving.

I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust.

Just a heads up, with a moderate la nina in place id bet the house on a Rollercoaster. There will be nice wintry bouts and annoying thaws.

tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow.

Sustained has always seemed uncommon. I mean most winters either see the cold or mild dominate, but its rare for anything to truly be sustained. I definitely agree that snow is not a way to determine if a winter is cold or mild...and thats why I brought up the rarity of a winter that is both simultaneously abnormally cold AND snowy. For instance, the winter of 1977-78 from a snowfall standpoint essentially died after the Jan 26 blizzard, which is only mid winter...but I don't think anyone would not call that a "cold, snowy winter". That does give me an idea though...I do want to look up later how many winters saw all 3 months finish warmer or colder than avg. btw if anyone is interested, here is a list of nina winters since 1950

Definitely not throwing in the towel on winter, just noting that December is looking mild. Its actually ridiculous to throw in the towel when there are 5 months of snow to come.

since 2005-06, we have had 6 colder than avg winters, 1 exactly avg, and 8 warmer than avg. Im surprised 2008-09 wasn't a cold winter in Toronto.

I initially was thinking that December was where it was at for ninas, but really its all over the board. strong ninas are strong signs for lots of December snow, but maybe everything is pushed back? because extended ensembles show cold really building in Canada towards Christmas. ninas also are usually a torch October, and this year was cool. I strongly disagree with that last statement about shrinking winters. if anything we have been seeing early and later snows, though I'm not talking Toronto, I'm talking here. any uptick in temp has been matched by an uptick in snow, and the old adage about grandpas winters of his youth has been used for centuries but never right. The 1870s seem like the best match for brutally cold and snowy winters, though ironically there were a few torch winters thrown in even then. Outside of a few winters in the 1970s and the 2010s, and other scattered ones, you are either going to get an impressively cold winter or an impressively snowy one, rare to see both the same year in the southern Great Lakes.

December looking mild for most of the country, though I'm sure it will contain some cold shots/snows in the Lakes and upper midwest. Deeper winter hopefully arriving around new years.

oh wow. That's way worse than here (26"). Just curious why you think it will be THAT bad...that has to be rare for Toronto.

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed.

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear

picked up 0.2" of snow this morning, quite windy and blowing a bit. First measurable snow of the season

Ann Arbor really had the extremes this week, seeing the warmest official temperature on November 9th at 81ﾟ, and the coldest official temperature today at 14ﾟ. Quite an impressive streak for a 5 day period. Detroit saw a low of 25ﾟ this morning after a high of 77ﾟ during the warm spell.

It was a beautiful, vivid Fall here. Last year was a late leaf drop.

last years leaf drop was late