michsnowfreak

22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If this happens forget about any late season wintry weather. You will have no source region for cold at that point.

Sustained? Of course not. But simply getting a late season snow, especially when some of those systems create their own air, don't ever underestimate that in this neck of the woods lol.

Thursday thru Saturday us a period to watch for some possible snow, but the finer details and continuity on the models is just terrible at this lead, so not worth going in depth on anything at this time.

19 minutes ago, Brian D said:

There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now.

I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes.

One of the 1850s winters was extremely mild, I think 1857-58?

36 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Was 77-78 a nino?   I thought I read that it was....maybe I'm wrong.

Actually both 1877-78 and 1977-78 were ninos. Big difference being 1877-78 was strong and 1977-78 was weak. 

While a weak el nino is not a slam dunk for a cold snowy winter like a strong one is a slam dunk for a mild winter, it is crazy to see the likelihood of a harsher winter based on the strength of the nino (in this area). 

Meanwhile La Ninas do have a lean towards cold when you average them all out, but the results are all over the board temp-wise in all the strength categories (what is a strong likelihood, fortunately, is a stormy winter).

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. 
 

My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life.

Huuuge congratulations!!!

21 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

You nailed it, I think with that stretch alone we got a higher end stretch of wintet than expected. Obviously for those who didn't benefit it's been a exceptionally lean winter.

For whatever amount of background climate warming you want to add to potential seasonal outcomes, betting on a objectively good winter for winter enthusiasts in a strong El Niño is a losing bet. 09-10 as a moderate to strong El Niño was essentially a unicorn for the areas that had BN temps and AN snow, including here in the Chicago area.

02-03 was a moderate Niño that gave eastern portions of the sub-forum a solid winter, though it was cool and dry out here.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks. Yes, a super nino is literally the worst possible bet. 1877-78 was a super nino, so was 1918-19...some of the most god-awful winters in history were.

An interesting Ive noticed here is that in these mild, unappealing winters, we actually have a heightened chance of heavy snow rates, TSSN, etc, but the usual parade of snowfalls and cold are missing. The winter of 2022-23 + 2023-24 we have seen MULTIPLE storms bring us blinding snow, with DTW having gone below a quarter mile visibility on I believe 7 different events since Dec 2022, and a few of them got to 1/8 mile. TSSN was widespread locally on March 3, 2023 & Jan 12, 2024. When looking at some historical winters, this has also been the case (one of the warmest winters we have ever seen, 1931-32, saw heavy TSSN on March 22). For those who dont have interest in all things winter, theres definitely been some fun times the last few years. But for the true winter enthusiasts like myself, ill gamble with La Ninas return next year anyday over this winter.

19 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Lol once again you're missing the point. Many storms take that path and yes not all are big dogs. The ones that need to track favorable for us, lose energy to coastals, limiting our big dog potential. 4-1 in favor of chicago 16+, and 10-4 > foot. All that needs to be said.

lol and once again you are missing the point or misreading the information. In the last 20 years storms that have dropped 8"+ of snowfall, Detroit has beat Chicago with 18 storms to Chicago's 12 storms. Of these storms, those that exceeded 10" are a tie 9-9. Of these, those that exceeded a foot, Detroit has seen 2 but Chicago 4, and those that exceeded 16", Chicago saw 2 and Detroit 1. I mean you should have not minded these last few winters. Multiple storms with good rates, a few storms with TSSN, limited cold and snowcover.

35 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I've been watching, but the bust potential in the negative is bigger than the bust potential in the positive.    

1. temps.... looks like this is a nocturnal-driven frozen event.   I'm not even sure the temps are ever supposed to get below freezing before, during, after.

2. The stripe of good cement is pretty narrow and will most likely be a nowcast event.

3. the recent winters and non-events have cemented my skepticism on anything to do with snow.

other than that I'm fully on board!!!! 

If I had to guess what's going to happen, whoever gets into that band is going to get some incredible snowfall, but the ratios will be bad. We've had that multiple times the last few years, absolutely blinding snowfall that's gonna make travel treacherous but it will be like 5-1 ratio.

11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

It looks like a pattern conducive to clippers but they're never sure things in any given areas. As an example, December 2017 had a good clipper pattern by recent standards but it mostly benefitted Wisconsin and Michigan. I noted the challenge forecasting clippers accurately at longer lead times in the long term AFD the past few days.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks. And yes I remember 2017 well, clipper heaven. Crazy disparity between Chicago (5.3") and Detroit (22.5") that month.

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Feeling really fortunate for that intense stretch of winter weather in mid January.  Outside of that 13 day stretch we basically had no winter.  Even though palmboy was a troll there's no doubt winter's are getting extremely wimpy, and apparently heading towards non-existent if trends continue.

I think everyone needs to remember also that this is a strong el nino winter. Those are literally THE worst possible outcome for winter lovers in this region. Also, what comes up must come down, and I don't think people realize how spoiled we were as a region for many years just a short time ago. You want to see a bunch of wimpy winters? Take a time machine back to the 1930s-50s. 

I wanted to look at something I've never really calculated. the average annual peak snow depth per decade at Detroit. It's crazy how relatively steady things have remained for a while when you add up the good and not so good winters of a decade. 

1890s- 10
1900s- 12
1910s- 10
1920s- 8
1930s- 7
1940s- 6 
1950s- 7
1960s- 7
1970s- 9
1980s- 9
1990s- 9
2000s- 9
2010s- 11
2020s- 9

5 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

@mississaugasnow 

All of the top 5 warmest Feb days at YYZ have occurred in the last 8 years lol. That's f*cked up. 

https://x.com/gtaweather1/status/1756061770123268267?s=20 

Without a doubt, since the 2015-16 super Nino, we've experienced record breaking warm winters. It's hard to say if this is the new norm now, but certainly feels that way. Don't think we've experienced a string of cold winters, to the severity of the warm winters that we've experienced in the last 8 years, in a long time (since the early-mid 80s). 

Since the 15-16 strong nino winter, 5 of the 9 winters have been very mild, 3 near normal (+/- 0.5° or less) and 1 cold here. Mild has dominated, but not consecutively. Prior to the 15-16 nino, 5 of the previous 7 winters were cold, the other 2 being mild. But if we expand it to the prior 13 winters, 8 were cold, 4 mild, 1 avg. So in the last 22 winters, 9 were mild, 4 near avg, and 9 cold. 

Looking historically, 4 of the 7 winters from 1875-76 to 1881-82 were very mild (but the other 3 were cold). 5 of the 6 winters from 1948-49 thru 1953-54 were mild. On the flip side, the most impressive cold stretches were 14 cold winters in a row 1892-93 to 1904-05 and 17 of the 20 winters from 1966-67 to 1985-86 being cold.

As has been discussed many times, snowfall has not suffered at all, merely coming back down-to-earth after our record stretch. A trend since the 15-16 winter has been often getting an excessively snowy month at some point in the winter, but with many periods of thawing/zzzz. Snowcover overall has taken somewhat of a hit, but again in the 13 years prior to 15-16, snowcover was comfortably above the longterm avg, including record breaking consecutive years 13-14 & 14-15.

Record high at DTW today of 64°. This is 20° warmer than the warmest temperature of January. Very breezy all day.

48 minutes ago, buckeye said:

How is this even possible.....??????       edit: to clarify this is in Ohio

My guess would be other than the last couple nights they'd been blowing plenty of snow with the guns. Mount Brighton in SE MI still has a solid 20 inch base and it's open for all skiing activities.

34 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Detroit averages about double what CMH does.  A world of difference to me would be a tughill plateau winter, not a Detroit winter.      Still, isn't Detroit sitting around 17" for the season?    That would be fairly typically to where CMH would be sitting in mid Feb back when winters were 'normal'....that's what I was referring to when I made the 'Detroit is the new CMH' comparison, albeit a bit tongue and cheek. 

My daughter and son-in-law moved up to Chesterfield, MI a couple years ago for his MU med school.   They haven't seemed that impressed with the snow.  

It's 64 degrees today as I type this, weren't we suppose to be in the midst of a good period of winter right now?       It's crazy.   

 

Detroit is at 19.5" on the season to date. Last winters total was below average at 37.1" but not disaster. So indeed, last 2 winters have been not only mild, but they have lacked the usual amount of snowcover and snowfall. We've had some good storms (including TSSN 3/3/23 & 1/12/24) but the longevity of snowcover and ice on lakes has definitely left much to be desired. If your daughter moved up here after the 2021-22 winter, I would not be impressed either LOL. Funny thing is, Detroit is due for a handful of subpar snowfall seasons to get the average down more in line with the long-term avg, owing to the snowy 2000s & 2010s. But other than a slightly below average snow season last year, we really haven't seen much of that yet. Seems that this season is well on the way to that, but ya never know. If it were up to me, this is not the way I would run a snowfall deficit at all . Id take a couple of cold and dry 20-25" winters where the snow never melts. 

All of that said no way to sugar coat a strong El nino. Those are guaranteed mild winters in this region. I'm not sure about Columbus's climo is in la nina winters, but Id already place my bets that next winter will be better for the Sub.

45 minutes ago, Lightning said:

That March 1996 was much bigger locally (I was living in Macomb County at that time).  Thundersnow included!!  That was a great storm!! 

I recall the forecast was rain ending with 1-2" of slop.  12"+ later in local areas in central Macomb county to Port Huron.

 

You are missing a lot of great April storms unless that is just DTW area.

 

I was only referring to the 2nd half of March, not April. But yes there have been some decent April storms for sure!

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

whose gonna break it to Josh that Detroit is the new CMH 

I won't hold my breath on that. Snowfall is a world of difference up here from central Ohio.

CMH went thru similar and worse stretches from the 1920s-40s. No doubt it will pick up sometime.

28 minutes ago, DocATL said:

I was thinking that and this morning’s GFS run seemed to suggest that although the 12z was a nothingburger.


.

clippers at long range have always been one of the models worst features. Thats why Im interested to see if the pros think its a clipper-producing pattern or just model theatrics on some runs.

Id look for some input from @OHweather @Chicago Storm or @RCNYILWX, but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow!

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, first half of March is still very much big winter storm potential. Seems at least for Toronto it seems to drop off very fast after mid March. I wonder if it makes sense to lower my threshold to 4". I wonder if 6" is too high for Mid March onwards 

If you lower it to 4", then I can add a bunch more lol. 

I will say though, its interesting when you look at history. There have been some big snowstorms late in the season in winters that were not cold, snowy, memorable:

April 6, 1886- 24.5". THE granddaddy. Winter 1885-86 wasnt memorable to that point. Not a terrible winter, but one that would have finished below avg snowfall if not for this.

March 21, 1888 - 8.4". A big snowstorm and record cold hit the lap of spring, about a week after nyc had their infamous storm. Winter was cold but not snowy.

March 19, 1906 - 6.7". What a dumpster fire winter. Barely any snow, 60s in January. the best of winter was at the start of spring (also this was a strong nino)

March 27, 1913 - 6.5". This storm helped us eclipse the 30" mark in a below avg snow season

March 22, 1932 - 7.5". One of the warmest winters on record, not a single day with snowcover til Feb 4th. And a big storm to start spring.

March 25, 1933 - 6.0". A November snowstorm dropped 9", this storm 6", and the entire rest of the winter managed a total of about 10"

March 27, 1934 - 9.2". What had been a rather dry winter, despite Febs cold, now sees a big storm

March 23, 1968 - 7.7". Season snowfall was in the low 20s til this storm came.

March 17, 1973 - 9.9". A monster storm in mid-MI (20"+) during a strong el nino

March 21, 1983 - 7.3". A strong El Nino that was on pace to smash Detroits least snowy winter...til this happened

March 22, 1992 - 7.1". Another strong Nino. This winter had a few good storms and stretches to make it avg in the snow dept, but certainly mild overall

5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Interesting that Toronto didnt get close to 6" for any of those. March 21st 2008 was 0".  Earlier that March (4th-9th) is when Toronto saw 12" within a 5 day span and lots of news articles about that. That must be what I was remembering about 08. 

In a winter like this I wouldnt mind 12" within a 5 day span haha. 

March 20, 1996 was an awesome storm because it came after a HORRIBLE winter locally. We were the snowhole that winter. The storm caught many off guard. Dropped 7.0" here, 5.8" at DTW.

March 25/26, 2002 was a crazy storm. Insane cutoff of a heavy snowband. Ann Arbor had just 0.2", but DTW had 4.7", I had 8.0", and Dundee (between DTW and TOL) had 12.0".

Mar 21, 2008 was a great Good Friday storm. 7.3" at DTW, 6.9" here. Made for a White Easter.

There were also some big storms the first half of March and in April, I was just talking 2nd half of March.

6 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

You're missing the point. I stated this isn't a 2 foot snowstorm. But had this storm been more west, it wouldn't transfer and the possibility is there to strenghten and maybe be a big dog. Being in our location, susceptible to transfers, theres no chance unless there's phasing. We've seen many storms take this next storms track and transfer, limiting our snow. The only way is to have phasing and we all know how hard to get a perfect timing full phase it. Areas to our west like Chicago don't have to worry about losing energy to a transfer when they get the big dog potential. We need so much more to align and go right to see that big storm.  Also like many have stated, myself included, I would be okay with going 3-5 years with no snow knowing a big dog is gonna happen. It's cool that you'd rather have 5 inches on the ground for a month straight vs getting a potential big dog. Different strokes.

Many storms take that path and strengthen without producing 18-24"+ totals. You need a supercharged storm to get that, and those in this region of the country are EXTREMELY rare. Chicago has gotten lucky a few times, but if its a "west" thing, than why do areas of eastern Iowa have worse big storm climo than us? Yes different strokes indeed, fortunately for me, Ill be able to have our climo cooperate more than you will, wanting no cold, snowcover, or overcast skies in winter, just 2'+ storms 

Storms the last 20 years:

In the last 20 years (2004-2023):

………..DTW….ORD

6”+ --- 37 ---- 27

8”+ --- 18 ---- 12

10”+ -- 9 ----- 9

12”+ -- 2 ----- 4

14”+ -- 1 ----- 2

16”+ -- 1 ----- 2

18”+ -- 0 ----- 2

24”+ -- 0 ----- 0

January was definitely the one bright spot for some of the sub so far this winter.

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Do any in the last 20-25 years come to mind? 

Locally only 3 storms of 6+ thev2nd half of March the past 30 years. We're due. 

Mar 20, 1996

Mar 25/26, 2002

Mar 21, 2008

44 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, it’s going to be interesting. Though in the last 10 seasons Toronto hasn’t recorded a 6” storm after March 15th. The April storm got close but was just a bit shy. Crazy that between March 15-31st Torontos biggest event has been around 4-5” (April I believe was 5.7”) 

 

You mean in the last 10 years right? We have had some very good snowstorms in the second half of March historically here, and many of them were in decidedly subpar winters.

5 hours ago, roardog said:

Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. 

Knowing by early Fall that the nino was pretty much a sure bet to be strong, it was a guarantee that winter in the overall mean would be mild here. That's literally how every single strong el nino winter on record has gone without exception. So I kind of was prepared for an overall stinker winter but I was hoping that we would get a few good spells and good storms. Those few weeks in january definitely exceeded my expectations for a strong el nino, but on the other hand the rest of the winter is kind of even worse than I imagined, especially farther north.