michsnowfreak

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

I can see grass here too because it all melted already

It was like an April snow burst. The air was choked with massive flakes, instant Winter wonderland, and now, by late afternoon, only a few skiffs remain.

It was like a cloudburst of snow. It was wild. I was not expecting anything really, thought we would get rain. Got 2.0" here in basically an hour. DTW had 1.9". Looks like a general 1.5-2" in SE MI and more further north, though rates were probably hardest right in the heart of the metro. Huge flakes too. Its melty now, but was certainly fun while it lasted.

42 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I am almost as far north at 42.18 latitude as Detroit yet you guys seem to outperform us in snowfall averages. Is that just lake influence or does your area receive more synoptic snows?

34 minutes ago, Stebo said:

We get more lake effect through the year, while you guys can get more bigger lake effect hits its generally smaller through the year and some years can be next to nothing. We get quantity, you get quality.

Synoptic seems a crapshoot. Some years we certainly get more, but other years we dont. One thing that often helps us is not just pure "lake effect" but lake enhanced snow. Sometimes a shortwave or clipper will move thru and it gets a boost from Lake MI, increasing snow on this side of the lake. So in that case, you really cant call it lake effect OR synoptic, its more lake enhanced synoptic snow lol.

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

The only reason they do is because of Lake Michigan, by the numbers they also get less snow yearly and we get more of the 6-10" snows.

Exactly and ive said this a hundred times.

9 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yeah I can never live in the u.p. away from my friends and g/f. Also ,the whole point is getting the big dog in your backyard and moving to have to see it ruins most of the satisfaction. Also this whining  and calling out josh is filling in the boring stretch of weather we currently are in.

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

One of these days I'll get Josh to admit chicago owns us in big dogs. He doesn't seem to weakening his turd polishing shield anytime soon but I will keep chipping away. It's all in good fun and glad we could entertain you in the slightest. I'm sure it's annoying to some but there ain't nothing else going on of any weather significance. People think I dont enjoy the smaller events and that's false. Just getting slightly annoyed we can't get over the hump here. I don't think expecting a big dog every 40 years is unrealistic. I don't expect one every winter and totally understand it's not our regular climo. But seeing almost everyone around us get one in my lifetime doesn't help.

Dont flatter yourself. Beavis obviously misunderstood what I meant. Beavis is like me on steroids when it comes to winter, the polar opposite of ALL things YOU stand for in winter. You ve been called out by multiple other posters over the years for your posting AND your exaggerating. The reason people dont think you enjoy small events (which to you is anything under 12") because youve said as much. See, I dont play that game. I like what I like, and I dont waiver from it. I liked the same type of weather through our record snow stretch of 2007-15 that I like in these last 2 lean winters. If you think its turd polishing by posting about the weather ON A WEATHER board, or correcting your misinformation, fine. Ive hated this winter as a whole, not sure how Ive polished it lol. 

1 minute ago, Lightning said:

Love your last statement.  Exactly why I moved where I did in SE MI!!!  Lost major$$ on my last house doing it too.  This area gets the most snow in SE MI, greats thunderstorms (but not always) and I get to keep my kind of high paying job . 

If desperate for 2-3'+ event I can go to Buffalo or UP.  If I want more/bigger t-storms I can storm chase and even travel to OV/MW.  

I'm content with my SE MI climate and take an annual trip up north in late Feb. This is the first time I've ever had a trip planned where I will have little or no snow (Feb 23-26). Bad winters happen. They suck. But they happen. 

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

Wow. The early 20th century sure had a lot of low snow winters. Calumet is already over 100 inches this winter and it’s only mid Feb. I can’t even imagine how snowless those winters felt at the time.

What's interesting is 1930-31 and 1925-26 are on the top of Duluths snowless list. Yet 1925-26 was Detroits 3rd snowiest winter with 78.0". Must have been an interesting storm track. 1930-31 was a drought winter and bad in most places, but a March snowstorm did save face some in the southern Lakes.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of New England has a very weak correlation to ENSO when it comes to snowfall. Weak El Niño is the best ENSO state but you see big snows in many other ENSO states as well. George is correct that a very potent El Niño is prob the worst. 
 

It typically comes down to other factors here. You can have a potent La Niña with little blocking and still be good (07-08 is a good example) but also an awful potent La Niña with little blocking (1999-00 comes to mind). 

Weak ninos have had some good winters, but strong ninos bat .000 in terms of a winter that averages out on the good side here.

I plan to do more research locally about la nina this summer. But the high number of snowy Decembers is very interesting.

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. 
 

- Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC

-early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice

- mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC

 

I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. 
 

MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. 
 

What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row?

It does often feel like if you don't attribute everything in the weather to CC you are labeled a denier. So messed up. Although when I see a troll post (ex: asserting new england will never see sustained winter again) i assume credibility for a genuine scientific discussion is low.

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I agree with you, I would rather roll the dice on a La Niña than a strong or super nino. Once it became clear that the ongoing El Niño would become as strong as it ended up being, I immediately lowered my expectations for winter in eastern Mass. this winter has been less snowy and warmer than even I thought it would be. The result was unfortunate, but it was interesting to track and see how the El Niño developed. This La Niña will be interesting to track as well. Strong ninos tend to be warm and wet in the northern half of the US, and this winter has proven to be no exception to that. 

See your area is where it gets more "gray" for me. Because I see the want for noreasters, but you also can get a lot more sustained winter than the midatlantic. At least bouts of it. So I just dont see the romance of strong ninos.

While no doubt this winter is worse than most would have imagined, the fact that the northern US would have a subpar winter (by each areas standards) is the closest thing to a guarantee you can ever make in the weather. Strong Ninos are usually warm and dry here, but we had an extremely wet/snowy January which was the only saving grace this winter. Feb has been bone dry.

On the flip side, La Ninas usually bring PLENTY of fun to the northern US, but also a big rollercoaster (even more than typical). 

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure I follow.  Turd polishing and liking winter are not the same.  In fact, they're complete opposites.  I don't get tired of you liking winter, but you're turd polishing because your standards for winter are very low...which causes you to be happy about very basic/minimum things in winter that shouldn't require much effort.  As an example - if we have a good 5-15 day period in winter, that's not a big deal.  Winter is 90 days, so why would anyone be happy that 5-15 of those days feature consistent winter?  I would be unhappy if 50 days did...so only 5-15 days is horrible.  That's what I mean by turd polishing.

If one likes winter, one should have very high standards.  How can anyone who loves winter be happy with any winter season since 2014-15?  I don't care about comparisons to climo or actual seasonal snowfall totals; there are certain minimum standards that need to be met.  "Tenor of the winter" metrics are the most meaningful...such as SDDs, # of days with frozen lakes, # of wintry days (defined as a day with high temps in the 20s or colder AND 2"+ snow depth), etc.  If we get a 10" snowfall that melts within a week, we shouldn't be happy just because our paltry climo monthly average snowfall is met.  That isn't winter, because there are 20 other days in the month that need to be mostly wintry-feeling too.

A climo winter around here is bad enough.  So, by default, 60-80% of our winters here are horrible for winter lovers.  What's a huge slap in the face about the current winter is that places which should be totally immune from this crap are seeing a bad winter...and that's the last straw.  I get furious enough when we don't have 2 consecutive months of snow cover here at 42.1N...so it's 100x worse when places at 45-49N are dealing with the same thing.  Nothing is sacred anymore. 

Will we ever get to experience a DJF all 3 of these very important "tenor of the winter" things are true, at least 80-90% of the time?  Even I have reasonable standards, since I didn't say 100%.

(1) You wake up and look outside, and it always looks like winter (snow cover)  

(2) You walk outside, and it always feels like winter (temps) 

(3) You don't have to worry about the snow melting (stability)

We can barely get (1) or (2) for any more than a week these days, so there's no chance to ever imagine (3).  But (3) is the most important thing for a winter lover.

Many people on the forum nowadays seem to think that people should be happy with winter simply because it's colder than summer.  Hooray, I guess??  If there are 3 months of summer, there should be 3 months of winter.  Endless days of dry weather with temps in the 30s and 40s is not winter.  Do we ever have endless non-summer days in July/August?  No - when I wake up on August 1st, I don't have to worry about whether it will feel like summer.

I don't know what's worse about this winter - the actual weather, or the fact that people aren't completely furious and throwing things against the wall in frustration.  People on the forum seem to be taking this in stride, which is ridiculous.  I want to see more complaining, not less...because it shows that people actually care.  Everyone is participating in turd polishing this winter, not just Josh.

Bing Crosby didn't say "I'm...dreaming...of a White...Christmas (but only if all of the indices align perfectly, and it's not too early in the season for lake warmth, and then the snow will melt right away if it falls later in the season, and we should be happy with 7 days of winter in a season and we have to hope in coincides with December 25th)." 

And this can't be blamed on ENSO state.  Last year wasn't a strong El Nino, and it was still a horrible winter.  Same for most of the last 8 winters.  It's always something...do we really need all of the stars to align perfectly just to have winter??  If so, what's the ******* point? 

People often misunderstand my views. I want to enjoy all 4 seasons -= they just need to each be 3 months!!  Not much to ask, but it's like pulling teeth to get anything close to that since 2014-15. It drives you crazy.

Woah, woah, and WOAH. 

You COMPLETELY misinterpreted what I said. The annual bickering between me & Steve has its roots because he makes it clear he wants big dogs only, doesnt care for cold, snowcover, smaller snows, etc...whereas I like ALL THINGS WINTER and do not place emphasis on something that is rare, a monster storm. So i say if he wants to call it turd polishing because I like frequent snowfall over the biggest storm possible, so be it. I like what you like, dont paint me as the enemy!

But WHERE, please tell me, have I said I liked this winter? Is it turd polishing because, seeing the alarm bells of a strong Nino winter and knowing our fun may be limited I was outside daily ENJOYING the cold/snow when it was here rather than tracking how many days, hours, and minutes away a thaw was? Is it turd polishing because I havent decided to commit a murder because Im unhappy with winter? . Do we have to video ourselves throwing things against the wall or do you take our word for it?

Bing Crosby recorded White Christmas on a scorching hot summer day in 1942 btw.

And sorry, but a huge majority of this CAN be blamed on ENSO state. Not all, but a lot of it. Strong Ninos are the WORST winters for us, bar none. Theres not one single one thats been even an average winter here, let alone one that would even sniff your standards, in the history of strong Ninos dating to the 1800s.

And lastly, if you ask me, you are the one turd polishing this winter by lumping it in with the last 8 winters. Thats giving this winter wayyyy too much credit. This winter for me is in a league with winters like 2011-12, in its own way of course. Last winter sucked too, but was better overall. But prior to the last 2 winters, we did fine. In fact, much of this sub had unusually deep snow in Feb 2021. God forbid we have some average snow seasons after a period of record snowfall. That was not suffering. THIS is suffering.

12 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Just looking ahead, July will be the month to watch this summer. If the pattern I see pans, a hot, dry stretch is in the offing in mid July. Expecting 100's. We shall see.  

Though we will never see a "dry" heat climate here, if I have to suffer through a hot summer, Id rather have some impressive hot spells, get some actual noteworthy high temps, and some cooler spells intermingled. These summers of almost every day humidity, muggy nights, and no impressive heat are very mundane. Last summer DTW had a max temp of just 90F.

And speaking of looking ahead...I will be following the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. To say i feel next winter will be MUCH snowier throughout the Great Lakes/midwest and especially in the northwoods is an understatement. 

Though Id be fine with neutral, Im also more than fine with a Nina next winter. We do far better in Ninas than Ninos in Michigan. I guess its all the difference in climates, but its crazy to see how midatlantic folks root on strong Ninos when that is literally THE worst winter you can draw up in the Great Lakes. I would argue 2023-24 has been the worst winter imaginable in northern MI/MN/WI, though Id need to do a lot of research to back it up (talking lack of snow + warmth). In southeast MI we had a good January and the rest has been terrible (Detroit has had 19.9" snow so far but 17.0" of this fell in Jan!). But all the bad I can say about this winter, there is not a single strong Nino on record that has been a good winter here. Im assuming the fondness of strong Ninos for some has to do with the heightened chance of east coast snowstorms?

There are a few duds, but by and large Ninas are snowy winters here and they are often front-loaded. Its quite common for a hot summer and mild Fall to abruptly give way to a cold, snowy December in a Nina year. We also see an increased risk of some real good winter storms in Ninas. And unlike Ninos with their strength discrepancy (weak nino can often be a good winter, strong nino ALWAYS sucks), a snowy winter is attainable in any strength of Nina.

Of course everything is speculation at this point, but I look forward to following this thread throughout the year, thanks for starting it George! 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Man, we just can't seem to catch a break. Looks like a scorching summer based on that set of analogs. 

For Detroit area, the preceding summers include the warmest on record (2016, 74.9F); the 5th warmest on record (2010, 74.4F), and the 9th warmest on record (1988, 74.2F). 3 of the top 9 hottest summers [out of 150 years] from a set of 9 years is pretty impressive.

1983 (38 of 150), 2008 & 1998 (42 of 150), 1973 (47 of 150), and 1975 (61 of 150), were all above the long-term median (although these may be fairly typical summers compared to modern normals). Only 2000 was a legitimately cool summer, albeit nothing to write home about [being 49th coolest of 150 years].

I fully expect a hot summer this year in a nino to nina transition. As Ive said before, by far the season that has warmed most here has been summer (esp mins), so I doubt the absence of 90F-heat will grace us 2 years in a row. 

90F+ days (avg is 13) in summers preceding Modoki Ninas

1973– 9 days
1975– 4 days
1983– 21 days
1988– 39 days (most on record)
1998– 10 days
2000– 1 day
2008– 7 days 
2010– 17 days
2016– 23 days

***

Nino to Nina transition years

1954- 17 days

1964- 26 days

1973- 9 days

1988- 39 days

1998- 10 days

2010- 17 days

2016- 23 days

This is WAYYYY longrange, but talking modoki La Nina next year. I looked up what years were considered a modoki La Nina, and they are:

1973–1974
1975–1976
1983–1984
1988–1989
1998–1999
2000–2001
2008–2009
2010–2011
2016–2017
 

That composite = December will be rockin' here 

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I didn't remember one storm lol, and I have been a snowbird a lot in past winters so I probably wasn't home for it, and didn't come home for it since 36 hours to get 16 inches doesn't excite me. I never said Detroit sucks or that I don't enjoy snow when we get it. It just sucks to miss out on several big dogs the past 20 years. We go through this every winter. We both like different things but I guess you'll never understand where I'm coming from. You keep repeating the same stats like I don't comprehend that we do better than ChIcago in the smaller events. I guess you can't read your own stats. Just keep wearing those rose colored glasses.

12”+ -- 2 ----- 4

14”+ -- 1 ----- 2

16”+ -- 1 ----- 2

18”+ -- 0 ----- 2

24”+ -- 0 ----- 0

I guess youll never understand where im coming from either. Best if we just ignore each other. Oh, and I can read my own stats just fine. Thats 4 storms in TOTAL of over 12"+, that why each category is 12+, 14+, otherwise it would have been worded 12-13.9", 14-15.9", etc. You dont add each category up.

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

A strong El Nino is a guaranteed mild winter in Michigan, so I can't say that this winter has shocked me, although it's a bit more extreme than I would have expected, especially up North. January was pretty good, the rest of winter terrible. 

I'll take my chances with la nina any day over el nino. And actually a modoki nina appears to be front loaded with good Decembers here. Would be a nice change of pace. Only a few duds. 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017. 

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’ll keep digging for the daily weather reports and link it here too. 
 

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/snelling.html

Thanks!!!

0.3" of snow both here and DTW today. Based on the hit and miss nature of the heavier squalls, some areas only had a trace, but isolated areas may have had up to an inch. With today's 0.3" of snow DTW is at 19.8" on the season (17.0" in Jan) and Wyandotte 18.3" on the season (16.0" in Jan).

This has to be the worst winter ever where southeast michigan still received 14-24 inches of snow in a single calendar month lol.

14 hours ago, Brian D said:

What I can glean from Ft Snelling written notes, Dec 1857 was mild, and Jan 1858 was too, but Feb turned cold. My monthly data charts confirm this.

I think thats the one. Im putting together a list of the stuff I have for Detroit from 1835 on (to when records started), and what I have for 1857-58 is Mild & open winter, “no snow and atmosphere of spring”, until February. On January 31st violets were in bloom in gardens.

Do you have a link for Fort Snelling?

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

I am not disagreeing with Wayne and Macomb Counties for sure.   I moved away from Macomb several years ago and have never looked back!! My area (in the so called hills of SE MI) is definitely better than Chicago with 12"+ storms.  If I lived in Macomb again I just might be posting the exact same as you. 

You seem to truly enjoy winter though in all its aspects though, not just one single solitary metric. 

3 hours ago, Cary67 said:

I think Detroit averages 45"seasonal snowfall compared to 37-38" for Chicago. I've had several winters recently under 25" seasonal snowfall yet Michigansnowfreak has only experienced one winter in 29 years like that. Big dogs happen so infrequently in Chicago I'd take the consistent yearly snow advantage you have. But understand your point

When my brother (who now lives in Denver) lived in Chicago (granted he lived in the worst place possible, right on the lake), we almost always had more snow than him. Indeed the Detroit area has a snowfall total advantage over Chicago, but Chicago has the edge with lowest temps. These are things that only a hobbyist would notice though, essentially the climates are very similar.

Even still, the general acting like we dont get snowstorms from steve is ridiculous. Most here already know this, but you can have an exciting storm if its not over a foot. Again, the last 20 years have been good to both areas, so the last few mundane winters (tho DTW did pop off 2 6" storms last winter) is not shocking.

Storms the last 20 years:

………..DTW….ORD

6”+ --- 37 ---- 27

8”+ --- 18 ---- 12

10”+ -- 9 ----- 9

12”+ -- 2 ----- 4

5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs. 

Nothing wrong with liking a big dog in your own backyard. Just like you get tired of me liking winter (as you call it turd polishing) I get tired or your constant contradictions and changing complaints just to constantly act like detroit is the worst place to be in the winter. In our 2008-15 era of record snowfall we had so many really good storms in the 10-12" range, record snow depths, and you carried on that DTW couldnt eclipse a foot. Then when Detroit got a 17" storm you managed to berate the storm for taking too long, saying you like rates. Since then we have had multiple storms with impressive rates, visibility down to 1/8 mile, TSSN, and you just manage to "not remember" them. Its always something. Detroit has had more 6"+ and 8"+ storms than Chicago, and the exact same amount of 10"+ storms. I know this is a shock, but some people can still enjoy a good storm under a foot. And speaking of a foot, Chicago had 4 storms to Detroits 2 of foot+, not 10-4 as you interpreted. lol 10 storms of a foot+ in 20 years, I guess the midwest is Nova Scotia now.

Was surprised to see snow showers this morning, then downright heavier snow squalls this afternoon. Picked up 0.3". Its been so zzz I hadnt even checked but thought it was supposed to be sunny today. Todays snowfall marks the FIRST precip for me since the January 30th snowfall, a solid 2 weeks. What an about face after a January full of snow & rain. DTW had a T of rain a few days back, but nothing measurable since Jan 30th. 

10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Looks like advisory level snows across southern Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon. Another painful miss for the twin cities to maintain seasonal trends. I’ll go with 0.3” at the airport final call. 

Where do you think the absolute lowest snowfall is so far this season in Minnesota? Do you think it's Twin Cities proper or somewhere else? I was thinking it might be somewhere South and West of the metro but there's really no first order stations.