michsnowfreak

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Hour 102 on todays 12z euro run perfectly illustrates why it's so hard for the detroit, indy corridor to get a big dog.  You got a strengthening low pressure system taking the perfect track, and then the coastal area steals the energy. This isn't the case with every storm and maybe not with this one but often If this low pressure was 200-400 miles west, it most likely wouldn't transfer and the chicago, grr, peoria corridor and points west could have the possibility of a big dog. Detroit is stuck in the middle of big dog territory. The only way detroit could cash in on 24+ is if there's a perfect phase of the N/S streams to our SE and even then still susceptible to a Miller B scenario. Once in a 100 year thing, sort of like major hurricane Ian hitting fort myers. Sure they've had a few over the years, but none like Ian that crawled along the coast giving them 7+ hours of surge/winds over 100.

This system is not a 2 foot snowstorm. We have seen multiple systems that start out just like this and take a favorable track and dump snow on us the last several years. A 2 foot storm is extremely rare. And the east coast is in a record snow drought btw. To say they are overdue for a coastal storm that actually drops snow is an understatement.

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

@Snowstormsand @michsnowfreak

Whats the percentage you put at Toronto and Detroit seeing another 10" of snow this winter? 

10" more would push Toronto out of top 10 least snowy winter. 

Construction has resumed/started real early. Got the earliest email in my near decade of running my division asking if we have begun the 2024 season. Ill send back we dont resume for another 6 weeks still but crazy to see. 

Such a tough call. 

~Average snowfall from Feb 8th to end of season at DTW is 16.5" more.

~The most on record for that timeframe is 49.4" set in 1900; the least 2.7" set twice, in 1902 & 1969. 

~In 143 years of snow records, 41 years saw less than 10" with 102 seeing more than 10".

~Strong El Ninos often see the best snowstorm of the season in March and are often backloaded

~Average last measurable snow is April 17th, over 2 months away

While its a given that this winter will not be remembered with a smile, Id have to put odds at simply seeing a total accumulation between now and May of at least 10" at around 70%. 

On 2/7/2024 at 5:29 PM, mississaugasnow said:

That month was great but more for the deep snowpack for the month. GHDII was only a 9" storm here (Hamilton/west end GTA). But we had over 12" on the ground for almost the entire month and half the month had 16-20" snow depth (Hamilton) 

Toronto only got 5" from that storm but still had an impressive 6-8" on the ground for the entire month. 

Talk about the glory days...

Seagulls were soaking up the sun and going for rides on ice flows in the Detroit River today.

6 hours ago, Lightning said:

My area still is finding a way to get near with mostly above average snowfall winters, with only 16/17 being a stinker being well below average, in the past 10 years. 

 I use the full average not just 30 year averages.

We certainly have managed to do okay in the total snowfall department in winters that are subpar in many places. But some of the winters have lacked prolonged "deep winter" stretches. 

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Sorry for off-topic, but it warrants a response. There are plenty of places in the midwest that have seen snowfall drop precipitously over the past decade.

Cleveland

Columbus

Toledo

Saint Louis

 

 

And there are plenty of places in michigan, minnesota, and wisconsin where snowfall totals are not dropping whatsoever. Coming back to Earth after the record snowfall stretch of 2008-2015? Absolutely. Falling overall? Absolutely not.

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is no modern winter that comes close to 1944-45, at Erie or Buffalo. Sure, the snowfall amounts, while high, are not record-breaking. But it's clear they weren't measuring with the same diligence that they do today. There were several storms where the depth increased more than the reported snowfall at Erie, including one where depth jumps 9 inches on less than 2 inches of snow.

NOTE: 6.6 inches missing from January 1 - should be 38.3 inches on month, per actual records.

This is despite missing data on 4 dates. Unfathomable today. The missing numbers are 10" on 12/31, 18" on 1/1, 22" on 1/31 and 31" on 2/1. The bad thing is these numbers probably got flagged due to the bad snowfall figures.

No. of days with snow depth of at least 12": 62, per xMacis [actually 65]. 2008-2024, there's been 64.

No. of days with snow depth of at least 15": 50, per xMacis [actually 53] - this is more than the next 3 years combined.

No. of days with snow depth of at least 18" - there were more of these in 44-45 than there are days of 12"+ in any other winter! [33, per xMacis - actually 36, which is more than the next 3 years combined]

No. of days with snow depth of at least 20" [20 per xMacis, actually 22]

No. of days with snow depth of at least 24" [9 per xMacis, actually 10]

No. of days with snow depth of at least 30" [3 per xMacis, actually 4 - which is more than ALL other years combined]

 

 

Im not familiar with Erie's data. I have Detroits snow depth since 1906 (for some reason xmacis starts in 1948) and Ive not seen any glaring errors like that. Im sure some stations were more diligent than others. Eries data doesnt look too bad to me other than wtf happened Jan 31-Feb 1. Clearly something is wrong there.

The 1944-45 was a cold and dry winter at Detroit but with excellent snowcover. Its the 3rd longest streak of continuous snowcover (tied w/ 1977-78) behind only 1903-04 & 2013-14. The peak depth here in 1945 was 8". It was one of only 2 good, wintry winters in the 1940s (the other being 1942-43). 

Detroits most days of 12"+ naturally belong to 2013-14. Top 5:

2013-14: 30 days

1998-99: 17 days

1981-82: 14 days

2014-15: 12 days

2010-11: 11 days

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

I think everyone can agree GHD 1 was still a nice storm, just as GHD 2 was a nice storm, their objective flaws aside.

Again, just offering a balanced perspective about GHD 2 in particular instead of dogpiling on Stevo.

Thats a more balanced approach. When I think of GHDI, I think of how 3 days later we all got 4-6 inches of "partly sunny". Talk about a snow blindsiding forecasters. Then, on Feb 20, what was supposed to be 1-3" of snow turning to freezing rain once again shocked us by being all snow, complete with TSSN, and dropping 10". We MORE than made up for it, and Feb 2011 is Detroits 2nd snowiest Feb (31.7"), behind only 1908. It was also the 4th snowiest month on record (at the time 3rd), behind only Jan 2014, Feb 1908, & Dec 1974.

Ive said all the good about GHDII itself, but another thing it did was lay down a deep snowpack for the record cold the next 5 weeks would bring. There was a few inches on the ground pre-storm, but unlike the nonstop storms of 2013-14, in 2014-15 it was a big one-hit wonder (otherwise all nickels and dimes).

We have come back to earth since 2016. What I wouldnt give to relive the 2007-15 glory days and all the silly weenie complaints we had at the time during what was the best snow stretch on record. Some complaints of the time- some complained about a storm in 2011 for not dropping enough snow in a month that saw 32". Some complained in 2008 because Detroit got 72" while Madison got 99". My God were we spoiled. In the 7 winters from 2007-08 thru 2013-14, Detroit averaged 59.8". And that INCLUDES the clunker 2011-12. In the 9 winters since, the average has dropped down to, well, near average, at 42.9".

One more 2015 post storm pic to show why it was my favorite 

4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

A beautiful morning!

I know a lot of people missed the sun. Im indifferent lol.

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I don't think it is a  jerk reaction at all. I have seen the same here in SNE and So NH. Many landscapers have gotten out of the snow plowing business. A guy who lives not too far from me just put hi large pickup truck with a plow up for sale.

Many businesses have been negatively impacted by a string of terrible winters.

Id imagine anyone who does that knows they are at mercy of the weather any given season. Plus there are differences. In the Great Lakes we get more snowfalls but less huge storms than the east coast. Snowfall the last 10 winters at DTW (avg 45") has been- 94.9",  47.5", 35.3", 37.9", 61.0", 31.3", 43.7", 44.9", 47.1", 37.1". Simply plowing or salting is more or less steady. Milder winters hurt the ice fishing and snowcover crowds, but we still get multiple snowfalls that need plowing and even more that need salting. During that 2-week stretch this January, some guys were working 20 hour days between the plowing, salting, and redoing from drifting snow. Then the east coast is an entirely different beast. Snow plowing/salting is more feast/famine. Two record low snow years in a row are happening for you guys, but what happens when a massive noreaster hits and drops feet of snow? There has to be someone to plow all the parking lots. Its like the old joke "blame me for no snow because i bought a snowblower". Joe blow sells his plow then next winter youll get 3 monster storms.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The main thing I have been seeing from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest is a shorter ice fishing season as places like International Falls have warmed about 6° during the winter since around 1950.  The warmer winters have resulted in increasing lake effect snows in spots with the warmer lakes and less ice. But even the warmest winters by International Falls standards like this year would be much colder than any winter around NYC. 
 

 

Yeah it could be in reference to ice fishing. Snow seasons still literally span Oct-May in the north annually, its just a matter of having thick ice and good snowmobiling conditions during much of winter that is essential for winter tourism in the far north. But even down here most winters have ice fishing on at least smaller lakes at times, so Im sure more of their ice issues are on the Great Lakes rather than smaller lakes. It doesnt matter how much you have warmed, 32F is still freezing. I have a feeling snowmobiling is a bigger part of their problem. We weenies look at thaws as "hopefully Ill still have snow in my yard when it freezes back up" but if a thaw sneaks that far north, even if there will still be plenty snow on the ground when its over, snowmobile trails can essentially be ruined.

24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I remember us getting 15" of snow. How could someone not...

Agree. 16-17" downriver. 

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Only you could irrationally shit on a storm that ranks top 5 all time for Detroit.

I mean I never said rates were crazy. Events with crazy rates like Feb 4, 2021 (3" in 1 hour) or Dec 19, 2008 (2-3"/hr for a few hrs) are not talked about because the snowfall total wasnt crazy/they were short events. So now lets criticize a 16.7" storm for only having 1"/hr rates for hours lol. 

I remember multiple storms with heavier rates than GHDII, but to have that much accumulation from 1 storm was impressive. 

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

I would also say your description of "very heavy snow" is an exaggeration.

Those ground observations you referenced are based more so around visibilities than actual snowfall intensity. With the powdery nature of the snow and the sustained winds around 15-25 MPH, it was pretty easy to accomplish persistent 1/2 (moderate snow) or 1/4 mile (heavy snow) visibilities throughout much of the event. 

That said, I will grant that even DTX admits rates were up to 1" per hour in some areas, with the high ratios helping the snow to accumulate efficiently.

Again, as I stated, it was a nice storm for what it was (a widespread 12"+ snowstorm, for many the biggest of their lifetime). And as I also stated, there was definitely some blowing/drifiting. But let's not over-romanticize how impressive it was either.

Snow rates were at or above 1"/hr in the afternoon. DTW had 6.1" from 1pm-7pm 2-1-15. You joke for that storm to not be over-romanticized despite the heavy total, but yet some have no problem exaggerating the bust of 2-1-11. This pic was taken 2-2-11, but I would expect to see no snow the way some people act like GHD1 busted lol.

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've seen a lot of interviews done with businesses that rely on cold weather and snow in the Midwest (particularly in Minnesota and Wisconsin) talking about how their businesses have dried up the last couple of years and they don't see it as a sustainable business anymore.

 

To be fair, this is probably a knee jerk reaction to a terrible winter in the Northwoods. Last winter, Minneapolis had its third snowiest winter on record with 95", now they are on pace for their least. I go to northern Michigan every winter, and there's always plenty of snow to play in. This winter is honestly a first that i've seen it like this up there midwinter, although supposedly it happened in 1987 too. In southern Michigan, we have winter festivals and ice carving events, but we don't rely on winter economically like they do in the northern part of the state. The main thing here is plowing and salting, and there's been no decrease in snowfall. 

17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

He should take up landscaping. 

He does in the warm season lol. This is obviously not a normal winter here. 

4 hours ago, Powerball said:

As nice as GHD 2 was from a total amount and spread-the-wealth standpoint, for this subforum it wasn't really an impressive wind producer nor a storm with particularly heavy rates (compared to its predecessor in 2011).

It was mostly a long duration light/moderate event, lasting over 24 hours (at the peak, rates were maybe 1/2 inch per hour). There was some blowing/drifting towards the end, but again, nothing out of the ordinary for that area.

That could be why it's sort of hard to remember this event, lol.

I call bs on this. It's funny that GHDI still did manage to drop 6-10 inches on the area (including TSSN), but due to the fact we dryslotted and didn't get 12 to 18 inches, it's still mentioned by some 13 years and tons of heavy snowfall records later almost like it was like that storm the East Coast had a few decades ago where they were forecast 3 feet and got 0. 

But I feel it's those same people that try to minimize GHDII. it was not a storm of light to moderate snow here with half an inch an hour rates at its peak. While it did start and end with rather steady though not heavy snow, the core of the day had very heavy snowfall. Of the almost 17" that I had, 9.5" fell from 12pm-9pm (included DTW obs from 12-9pm which include some intrahour). There was plenty of drifting too. 

12 hours ago, nwohweather said:

February 2015 was absolutely brutal. I remember as a college student struggling along in sub-zero weather to morning classes bundled up like the Michelin man. College of Business was not the shortest walk from my house back then. It was the snowiest February in Toledo history at 25" and second coldest at an average of 12 degrees. 

February 2015 does not get it's fair due, most likely because it followed the historic 2013-14 winter. It was the coldest February on record in many spots in this region, and second place in others only to 1875. And the deep snow didn't even have its chance in the spotlight because it was second to 2014. But had that month occurred in a world where 2013-14 didn't exist, we would be remembering it for its nonstop deep snow. As I mentioned, 2 Februarys in a row where Detroit saw a wall to wall double-digit inch snowdepth. It had never come close to happening before, and boom. Now it happened 2 years in a row. While some in the general public do still remember 2013-14 (its hard not to), you'll hear almost nobody recall 2015 other than a weather weenie. The general public is too busy remembering winters of their childhood with snow to the rooftops...that never happened.

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

This is what's amazing.   Other than a small area here and there snowfall is way down everywhere.   There's almost no snow cover anywhere right now other than mountain regions...Great lakes are virtually ice free....going to moderate any cold that moves south if that persists...

It's been beyond bizarre. A 2 week blitz of hardcore winter in January, then almost nothing else but a few brief shots. A friend of mine who does plowing & salting (Detroit area) has had 30 billables so far this season (no idea what exactly that means lol), with 25 of the 30 coming in that 2 week stretch in January.

37 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Of course I use the term Morch loosely.

It should go without saying that a 2012 repeat is very unlikely, but I've seen a number of long term forecasts pointing towards a warmer than normal March.

Thanks for clarifying. 

4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

With the El Nino breaking down, you might get your wish this year for a warm Spring (including a Morch).

Just have to make it through the first week of March for the warmer than normal pattern to hopefully settle in.

I see no signs of a Morch lol.

People reacting to blue skies and sunshine here is like they just saw a ufo. Missing the brunt of the mild air to our west, but after a 23° start temperatures have rapidly warmed to the low 40s. Only dirty plowed piles of snow remain.

30 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Goes back to one of your posts about the increase in extreme weather lately. Dec 2023 was incredibly warm followed by a record breaking cold outbreak, out west, and now more record breaking warmth for the same regions. 

It's been wild for sure. January here started and ended in a London fog while being an arctic winter wonderland during the heart of the month.

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm still not super-bullish on eastern snow even with the repeat of the cold part of the pattern coming up again. But I did have Feb 16-Mar 15 as the snowiest part of the winter for the Northeast as part of my outlook, and I built the snow analogs in August, as they're actually less sensitive to overall patterns. Snow is...fluky. I find it's better to predict fluky stuff with fluky stuff, and not generalizations, like all the upper level map porn for five weeks in the future you see on here.

Here is how we've done so far. I've been too cold everywhere, so snow in the West is above average at high elevations but below average at valley levels. The fluky southern snow has more or less shown up. Northern New England and the area by DC doing OK for snow relative to most of the NE has also worked out fine so far. Obviously Kansas has been a dead-on bullseye for the heavy snow winner as my analogs had back in August.

I actually think the misses so far - like CA and the northern Plains - are going to catch up a lot for snow over the next six weeks. I actually think there is a half-assed version of the fun part of 1973 coming. I know people like 2010, and for mid-Feb to mid-Apr, I agree it's a decent analog - but I actually think it's not extreme enough. I think an 1983, 1998, 1973 blend is possible for March for snow. There is some tendency for otherwise relatively shitty El Ninos in the West to briefly turn nuts in mid-Feb to mid-Apr. A lot of the strong dying El Ninos go from a strong WPO look, one way or the other where a lot of the North Pacific is flooded with high pressure, to just an open field of low pressure. I think that's the mechanism for the brief period of intense storminess.

Something like 75% of all snow to fall in the last century in March here is ~15 years that are high-solar El Ninos. The Feb 2024 map on the Canadian for the Pacific does look similar (in the Pacific) to the March high-solar/stronger El Nino composite. 

With the Atlantic warmer, I'd generally push the snowy zones on the maps below 100-200 miles northwest for 2024.

One of the crazy things to me is that Detroit just saw the wettest January on record with 5.25" of precip (including 17.0" snow). El Nino's typically have dryness centered around the Lakes. I'm very curious to see how the turn towards cold in mid february and beyond behaves from a precip/snow standpoint.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I see no evidence of this in the data. If anything, Detroit used to run more above the surrounding observations in 1890 than it does today. People act like it was some pristine wilderness back then. Detroit already had a population over 200,000, increasing to nearly a million by 1920.  The city stations were often sited either on heat-contaminated rooftops, or on heat-contaminated window shelters. And there were large blast furnaces spewing copious amounts of heat and pollution in many of the cities. Furthermore, most of the so-called urban heat island effect is explainable by the fact that cities developed along river valleys and/or lake/coastal Plains, whereas the suburbs and rural areas tend to be situated in elevated upland locations away from these features. Of course, rural/ex-urban White Lake (elev: 1,000'+) is going to be cooler than Detroit (elev: 660 feet).

Here's December 1889. Detroit was about 3 degrees warmer than the other two Wayne County sites, 3 degrees warmer than Ann Arbor, and 4 degrees warmer than Ypsilanti. KYIP usually runs warmer than Detroit Metro Wayne Airport, and none of these locations are that much cooler than the airport. There were only 3 warmer locations - Chelsea (Washtenaw), Hanover (Jackson), and Benton Harbor (Berrien). The first two clearly have solar radiation issues, as their high temperatures are WAY out of line with the other sites. Benton Harbor is on the other side of the State.

LOL. 1889-90 is probably the warmest winter this region as a whole has seen, but lets discount it. BTW, KYIP ran warmer than DTW when there was a temp sensor issue, which has been fixed.