michsnowfreak

On 4/17/2024 at 8:21 PM, Terpeast said:

I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. 

 

Cansips DJF

Cfs will literally change 100+ times before then.

On 4/25/2024 at 9:03 PM, mississaugasnow said:

Whats your average last frost? Here its going to be right about on schedule assuming we dont get another one.

 

Also can I finally say the snow season is done haha. 26.4" was all YYZ got which is good for 6th least amount of snow since records began at YYZ in the mid 1930s. I ended up being right talking futility in mid January but I did get a bit nervous there with that late march 2-4" event haha 

 

Average last freeze is:

150-year avg: April 24th

1991-2020 avg: April 21st

Dont have an exact stat on last frost, but if you go by frost with temp of 37F or lower, then the avg last frost is:

150-year avg: May 10th

1991-2020 avg: May 7th 

Detroit finished 18th least snowy since 1880 with 23.5" (for reference, you are using the mid 1930s, this would be the 15th least since 1935). Definitely a winter to forget, but cant say we werent due for an unusually low snow year. It happens. 

2 hours ago, madwx said:

super dry air.  Dews in the low 20s.  Should increase by 40+ degrees over the next 40 hours

From the 20s and dry air to 80 and humid in 3 days.

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Actually has a lot to do with it. I was pointing out that there have been entire Aprils where the mean minimum temperature was near or below freezing in Detroit. April 1874, of course, was particularly noteworthy, as it was case where the average low for the entire month was only a fraction of a degree warmer than the minimum this morning. An occasional freezing morning is to be expected more often than not.

Timing is important. Record lows the first 2/3 of April are generally in the teens, then they jump to the mid to upper 20s the last 3rd of April. This year trees are about 10 days ahead of normal so last nights conditions (temps 20s, dews upper teens to low 20s) can really harm fruit trees. Its not so much an issue with potted plants because nobody should have planted anything yet. 

Though we did not have anything to show other than a trace on the 21st this year, frequency of post-April 15th snow has been at an all time high the last ~15 years. 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nothing too unusual for southeast lower Michigan. In 1874, the average low for the entire month at Detroit was 28.7F. And there have been 5 years in which the average low for the month of April was below freezing.  That's why they say hold off on planting until Memorial Day.

 

What does showing the coldest Aprils on record (1874 over 10F colder than avg) have to do with noting the unusual nature of this mornings cold? The record low was missed by 2F and again, as pointed out, the dewpoints were unusually low. Im well aware of the planting guidelines (they say Mothers Day, not Memorial Day) but theres little you can do with trees established in the ground. 

This marks the 5th consecutive year that the last freeze was later than avg

2024 (Apr 25)

2023 (Apr 26)

2022 (Apr 29)

2021 (May 1)

2022 (May 13) *only May 10, 1966 saw a colder temp so late in the season than the 27F on May 9, 2020).

I covered my apple trees. Not an easy feat lol. If it happens next spring I may just run the sprinkler.

DTW got down to 28F, missing the record low (26- 1892) by 2F. White Lake got to 23F. What was unusual about this is that most late spring frosts/freezes have dews near the temp, but we saw temps in the 28-29F range while dews were 20-22F. Very unusual, albeit brief, for late April.

Snowy on this day in 2020, the start of 3 years in a row of late snows

I just stayed home for the eclipse. 99.6% totality imby. It was really neat to watch. Totality would have been awesome, but still, no regrets, and i dealt with no traffic into Ohio lol. 

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Pretty bad. As @Snowstormsmentioned 7th least since 1840. Which to me is worthy of futility discussion lol 

Yeah, that's definitely futility. This season, Detroit ranks 18th least since 1880.

Off and on snow showers today, Detroit Tigers Opening day. It honestly seems like it snows every other year on opening day.

8 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak Even with that big push in late March YYZ is still at 6th least snowiest season on record at the airport. I don't know about you guys but to me thats going in the futile pile. 6th place has a cushion of about 2" before this winter would slip to 7th. 

Where does this season rank in Torontos entire period of record?

Had a heavy grauple and sleet shower this afternoon that whitened the ground briefly, 0.1", however, it melted quickly. Popcorn showers dotted the area today

11 hours ago, weatherbo said:

 

 

What was your deepest snow this season?

15 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Blizzard warning replaced this afternoon with a wsw for 6-8 inches tonight as snow has picked back up the past couple hours after a lull this afternoon.  Ratios today were closer to 6-7:1 so totals will be much lower than forecast but the snow is extremely dense.  A couple pics from earlier today.

 

Beautiful. The storm sure was a dud outside of the higher elevations/huron mountains (and even there, much lower than forecast).

55 minutes ago, roardog said:

The difference between heavy snow and 30 degrees and heavy snow and 33 or 34 degrees is huge imo. I actually kind of hate snowstorms where the surface temp is above freezing. It feels like you “waste” a lot of snow to melting but at the same time it sticks to everything and causes tree damage and power outages. 
 

  

Jan 12, 2024

DTW 1.04" precip, 4.6" snow, temps 33-34

White Lake NWS 0.70" precip, 7.5" snow, temps 31-32

56 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Marquette and Baraga counties upgraded to a blizzard warning before it's even started.

What's your seasonal total this year and  your annual average?

3 hours ago, Imneversatisfied said:

The 18z runs all seem to be holding their ground. Really sucks for me in Alpena as that bullseye was over my area in MI for 5 days on global models,then they shifted west last night big time. Mesoscale models continue east tho. Dare I hug the NAM ect??? Lol The rug might have been pulled one last time on me this snow season. Should be an interesting storm to nowcast!

Definitely frustrating to see the models so off on placement for so many days, but the sting is definitely less in spring.

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I would guess probably about 80-82 at location of JFK, if they could have taken the reading, it looks like a WSW flow which probably explains PVD getting to 90F. It had been very mild for weeks all over the country (and in southern Ontario) so there was probably no snow south of Lake Superior since early in the month. 

After a cold winter of 1944-45, the inferno was on in March. The original Morch if you will. Oftentimes following a cold winter, spring vegetation is late, but the green up was record early in 1945 and freezes in April and May pretty much destroyed most fruit crops in the midwest that year.

5 hours ago, rainsucks said:

at least it's looking likely that the day of the eclipse will be quite mild.

It doesnt matter if its cold or warm or anything in between. Its all about skycover that day.

16 hours ago, Brian D said:

Just looking at SWE of this system, Monday's snow was really wet. There was a little rn mixed in between 2-4 am (couple hundreths).

TH co-op data:

2024-03-25	0.69	7.5	7	31	26
2024-03-26	0.55	2.0	8	33	27
2024-03-27	0.37	4.0	10	27	16

On January 12th, DTW saw 1.04" precip and 4.6" snow, and that was all snow except the last 0.04". It's like walking through mashed potatoes. 

Where is that photo from? Its incredible!

On 3/26/2024 at 2:02 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

It's high time the NWS amends the description of climate in Mansfield, Ohio. There is not near continuous snow cover from December through March anymore. And daytime temperatures regularly exceed freezing in the winter. That would be considered absurd today. There's barely been 20 inches the last two winters combined. And 3 of the top 10 least snowy winters are in the last 5 years.

I really believe Ohio is ground zero for climate change. Feels like it's warming faster in this region than anywhere on the planet.

Its a ridiculous description to begin with. When has Mansfield EVER had continuous snowcover Dec-Mar? It has nothing to do with "anymore". Their decade with the most Dec-Mar snowcover days (1"+) was the 1970s, which averaged 51 days out of a possible 121. Thats less than half. The 2000s & 2010s were steady with snowcover, seeing more than the 1980s-90s, on par with the 1960s, and more than the 1950s (data gets sketchy before 1949). Two winters is not ground zero for a change in climate. 

You seem to be fascinated with Toledo snow stats lately too. So I decided to look up some stats myself.

Toledos snowiest winters (since 1886)

#1 is 86.3" is 2013-14, breaking the previous record by 13.2".

7 of the top 20 snowiest have come since 2003.

2 of the top 20 least snowy have come since 2003 (the last 2 winters)

Winters with the highest snow depth (since 1893)

03.) 2020-21 (18")

06.) 2014-15 (15")

07.) 2000-01 (14")

09.) 2013-14 (13")

13.) 2008-09 (12")

      2009-10 (12")

     2010-11 (12")

So in 132 years of record, 6 of the top 15 peak snow depth winters have come since 2009.

53 minutes ago, Chinook said:

wasn't this supposed to be pretty insane for South Dakota into Minnesota? I absolutely remember a NWS graphic from Aberdeen that said 16"-23" for a border twn

Just the usual standard model clown maps making a real good storm into an epic one lol. There were a few ensemble runs where every ensemble mean had 30"+ at aberdeen

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

3.5” at MSP at the 1pm measurement. Still snowing steadily with some heavier returns that’ll rotate through later this afternoon. 
 

Minneapolis has now seen 14.7” of snow since Thursday evening. We were at 14.3” season to date before this period of active weather began. 

Crazy. Cant talk futility until April in the upper Midwest, and March in the rest of the midwest IMO. 

Certainly doesnt make up for a shitty winter, but the snow blitz of March 21-26 has plummeted Minneapolis from 2nd least snowy winter to 24th least snowy, and Im sure the ranking will be even lower.

At Detroit, 12.7" of the seasons 23.5" fell in a 9-day stretch Jan 11-19, but thanks to that, as Ive mentioned, we are just at 18th least snowy, and easily could fall out of the top 20 with a small April snowfall.

2 hours ago, Brian D said:

The daily data shown at MRCC from Oct 1863-April 1864 is robust. Nothing missing. 16.6" is the final value for the season.

 

The 1863-64 was well documented locally to have an extremely severe cold snap around New Years and little winter weather the rest of the season. It was considered a very open winter outside of the first half of January, with very little snow, so that total is 100% believable.

Documentation about the winter at Detroit (from "Memorials of a Half Century", a fantastic 1883 book by Bela Hubbard).

1863-64: New Years will be remembered for violent & sudden reversal of temperature. December had been mild with only occasional floating masses of ice on the river. Rain set in December 31st, along with a 24-hour temp fall 40F the evening of Dec 31st to -20F the evening of January 1st. Little snow fell here, but the fall was heavy in Chicago. On Jan 5th, 4” of snow gave good sleighing & it remained cold & sunny the next few weeks. By January 18th thawing left the ground bare, and by January 25th the broad expanse of the river was now free from ice. On January 27th it hit 60F. The first half of February continued mild, thawing during the day & scarcely freezing at night. Frost out of the ground. February 15th was as bright & balmy as April, but a flurry of snow & big change the next day followed by -3F on February 17th.