michsnowfreak

What a difference in precipitation. Detroit had the wettest January on record followed by the 4th driest February on record.

Feb total at DTW is 0.24" precip, 3.1" snow. Wyandotte is 0.17" precip, 2.5" snow.

Jan total at DTW was 5.25" precip, 17.0" snow. Wyandotte 5.14" precip, 16.0" snow.

After an impressive monthly record of 73° yesterday at DTW, and locally very little rain with overnight storms, the temp tumble has begun. So far from 62° at 6am to 38° at 10am.

Glad you are OK Harry! 

We hardly got anything here. A big clap of thunder just after midnight (no more impressive than the Jan 12 thundersnow) then like a 3 minute downpour of rain, just enough to wet the ground. To my north saw better storms.

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snow threat crapped the bed tonight, but the temp crash has still been impressive.  Most areas have crashed over 50 degrees already from 8-9 hours ago, with wind chill values making it feel over 60 degrees colder.  

Moline was a record smashing 79 yesterday, they are now 17, wind chill -3‍

55 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Back when pigs flew

 

 

The winter of 1899-00 was crazy. what started as a very lackluster snow season through january (9.4") saw 58" of snow in Feb-Mar, including a snow depth of 26" March 5. While this was going on in southern MI, it was an extremely light winter up north.

24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Definitly flipped compared to recent winters. I was gonna head down to florida this weekend for the month of March but might stick around a few extra days since it looks to be in the 60s through the weekend.

We had such a record stretch of snowy Februarys it seemed as if it would never end. Now we have had 2 duds in a row. Shows that trends break, and makes me feel good that the dud December trend will break soon.

7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Without diving into the stats, with how snowy/cold febs have been here recently, and the thaws in January recently, you'd never guess we've never hit 70 in january. 

Yeah but each year is different. The max in Jan this year was only 44. Toledo has hit 70 in Jan on a few different occasions (we had a crazy warm spell Jan 20-22, 1906, another strong nino) but it's still extremely rare.

23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I feel like it has to be awhile since we've seen 70 in detroit in february.

Today will likely set a new monthly maximum, as the record is 70 in 2017/1999.

Fun fact- the only month to not hit 70 is January. The warmest temperature is 67° on Jan 25, 1950, however many areas registered over 70 that day, including 72 at Ann Arbor. I suspect present day DTW would have as well. On the flip side, the only month not to have a temperature in the 30s is july, all time low being 42 on July 6, 1972. So theoretically, it is possible, though extremely unlikely, for someone in Southeast Michigan to be as cold as the 30s or as warm as the 70s any month of the year.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Definitely had some good winters since then like 2017-18 and 2020-21 but the main effect aside from the awful last 2-3 winters was a huge bump in winter time temperatures.  NYC has a total of 6 DJF average temperatures of 40 F or higher and 5 of them have happened since 2000.

 

Yeah we have had 5 unusually mild winters the last 9 years here, so hoping that comes to an end. But again, the previous 9 winters before that were MUCH colder and featured record snowfall, so all patterns do change eventually. Whether or not we see that change begin next year, I have no clue. It would seem a few neutral years would help but ENSO wants to just go wild anymore lol. Like anyone, I'm always most worried about my backyard, and mild winters here are not an issue for getting snowfall. All out torch months like this winters Dec & Feb, along with poor storm tracks, are what ruins winter here.

22 hours ago, Lightning said:

I too hate zzzzzz patterns.  Luckily January around here was great.  But February has been a complete zzzzzz fest so I will say I haven't minded the mild February as it has been sunny.  It would have been horrible to be cold and zzzzzz.

After the wettest January on record, this will end up likely being one of the driest Februaries on record, unless we get a really good storm tonight. Thus far, there have only been a few measurable snowfalls, and no measurable rainfall in February.

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but you'd think the opposite would be true, since more snow and cold breeds more snow and cold and patterns tend to get stuck.

Some outside factor has to come in and dislodge them-- like the 2015-16 super el nino.

 

Again that's just my observation locally. And while the 2015-16 nino certainly did herald in the end of the glory days era and an increase in warm/mild winters, it has not been all bad since then here. This winter is pretty much bottom of the barrel for here. 

14 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

You didnt get that last year during the christmas blizzard? Southern Ontario went from 40F and rain to -5F to 5F in 12 hours 

DTW went from 39° at 11pm 12/22/22 to 1° at 11am 12/23/22.

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Not sure anyone could predict some areas (detroit) could have just as many severe watches as winter storm watches djf. Only recall maybe one with the Jan 9-11 event but think maybe southern areas of the metro didn't even get a wsw with that event.

We had multiple winter weather advisories in January but no warnings. I believe a winter storm watch for something? But I really don't expect a severe thunderstorm watch out of this. We will see. 

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And your exact verbiage was a "better" winter in the east...do me a favor....go though the high ACE years and show me a worse winter than this one...

I'm not saying forecast forecast 1995-1996 due to high ACE La Nina....rather a fighting chance to avoid another anemic year.

I had never really heard of ACE until recently. Is it something that we can put on par with things like NAO, PDO, etc? And how high does this year's ACE rank? I may have missed it earlier in the thread.

What's ironic looking at the top 10 highest ACE years and following winters, the worst one here was 1995-96, and that was a product of being in a cold, dry screwzone. It was a cold winter, just a nightmare of missed snow chances. Most of the others were good winters, and nearly all had an abnormally snowy month (a common characteristic of ninas locally as well). But the best takeaway is that none of them were close to the widespread atrocity this winter was. 

16 hours ago, Terpeast said:

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. 

Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last 

Nothing is ever a guarantee. But it's always a best bet to play the odds. Have their been dud la ninas here? Yes. But the overall odds favor a much better winter. And for the same Northwoods areas that are setting records for low snow in northern MN and northern MI this winter, the odds are even stronger for bountiful snow next winter. One trend that is quite strong here locally in a la nina, regardless of strength, is having one well above avg snow month. For some reason it's usually December or February.

Ill defer analyzing New England to those familiar with the climo but I do feel that a handful of bad winters, which are a combination of both bad patterns AND bad luck, are jading things a bit. It was not that long ago that everyone from the Great Lakes to the New England was destroying climo with abundant snow seemingly no matter what the pattern was. Things do change and patterns don't last forever. 

Lastly, one rule I have always followed in weather. And I KNOW this is not popular among some. Is that when you have a great winter, or string of them, the odds increase that a stinker is coming up...and it works vice versa. It's gone on since the beginning of climate record. 

Came up to a cabin in the Grayling area for a long weekend. As has been discussed to death, depressing to see brown ground state wide on the drive up. Hardly any snow but fortunately still a good frozen 3-5" here in the woods. In town its patchy. Looks like a trace at home overnight. 

Random fact- between having many good stretches at home and my annual "up north" winter trip, I have not had a winter where I have not seen snow depth in double digits since probably 2003-04 (started the annual north trips in 2007). This year, the deepest snow I have seen was 7" at home in January. Unless mother mature has a March trick up her sleeve lol.

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..pass 24/7/365 on another El Nino or La Nina....sign me up for a La/El Nothing...

Neutral is definitely fine. I just meant when el nino vs la nina...la nina ALL the way.

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Josh, whats the record for most consecutive days in february above 50 in detroit? I'd ask 45 but I'd imagine its harder to get stats that way. Obviously warm spells can happen in winter here and it seems most of the time lately they've happened in January. February's have been rocking around here winter wise in recent years and just curious. Looks like atleast 4 in a row starting Sunday. Thanks. Also looks like there's potentially 8+ days straight of atleast 50 starting next weekend as we head in march. Atleast 10 degrees above avg for early march (40°).

Record is 8 consecutive days in 2017. The most 50+ days in Feb:

12- 2017

11- 1976

9- 1880

9- 1882

8- 1930

8- 2000

8- 2018

8- 2023

7- 1984

6- 1932

6- 1938

6- 1954

6- 2016

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Syracuse moved their recording location similar to Buffalo. They moved it to a far more snowy location 10 miles north of the city. Any data pre 1940 shouldn't be used for Buffalo, and any data pre 1949 shouldn't be used for Syracuse. 

Prior to 1949, official Syracuse weather reports including snowfall were recorded in downtown Syracuse.

https://www.localsyr.com/weather/historic-lack-of-snowfall-in-syracuse-this-winter/

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower.

Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise. 

4 hours ago, roardog said:

These snowfall deficits are still all pattern driven though. The pattern has been bad for big snow for years now for Ohio to the north and east into parts of Ontario like Toronto. There’s also probably some bad luck in there too. 
 

 Since the PDO went back negative after the super Nino of ‘15-‘16, any +PNA patterns have been very short lived during the cold season. There’s also been very little sustained high latitude blocking. Once you get south and east of Michigan, it’s tough to keep sustained winter weather with a -PNA and no blocking. 
 

  I believe Jan and Feb 2022 had a +PNA in the means and guess what? Most of of this sub ended up with a cold winter. Snow is obviously fluky so a cold winter doesn’t always guarantee a lot of snow of course. 

Agree. We ALL did great during several big winters from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, but the ones that are not region-wide blockbusters or region-wide stinkers tend to have pockets of good and bad snowwise, regardless of temperature departure. Prior to this winter, the previous 4 winters southeast Michigan overall did pretty average while ohio was well below (except '20-21). On the flip side I remember a few 1990s winters where cleveland did very well (at least partially thanks to the lake) and we did very meh.

This falls under the LONG long range, but it will be interesting to monitor the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. If and when the nina develops how strong it gets, if it is modoki, how active hurricane season is, etc. 2024-25 >>>>>>> 2023-24  

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Folks, don't do it to yourselves again...

Its not even a contest. Strong Ninos are the worst scenario here. Nina is a vast improvement. 

On 2/21/2024 at 9:53 AM, GaWx said:

 I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily:

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina

2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina

1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina

1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral

1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina

2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño

2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 

1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral

1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral

1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina

 

AVG NYC for top 10 ACE:  35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

—————————————-

AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-1 or 33% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

————————————

ACE:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value.

 

NYC:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

BOS:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box

*Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know?

The results are also good for Detroit.

Current 1991-2020 avg: 45.0". Period of record avg: 41.0".

Avg snowfall for the top 10 ACE: 44.5"

Avg for the 9 MODOKI Ninas since 1950: 49.2"

Avg for all 24 Ninas since 1950: 44.5"

Avg for a strong NINO since 1950: 30.7"

Avg for a strong NINA since 1950: 49.2"

I should also note that the # of good winters outpaces the bad winters in Ninas, and the few dud snow years that kept the curve in the 40s-inches were good winters in other places, just not here.

15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

They’re 303” below normal last 5 winters. (This year isn’t over yet)

I believe Erie Pa and Cleveland are just as bad. 

I’ve been extremely lucky here with 3 massive lake effect events. 

Thats crazy. Does syracuse usually get a lot of LES?

Looks like this is Cleveland and Erie's worst 10-year stretch since the 1920s-30s, but that stretch was worse.

Ohio has been in quite a snow rut. You can include Toledo, as multiple events seem to diverse at the MI/OH line, esp the last two years (plus TOL is actually well south and west of the actual city, so I dont usually pay attention to that area, but the last 2 years have been crazy low). 

Im headed to a cabin in Frederic for a 4-day weekend Fri-Mon. My yearly up north late winter trip. Since I started this annual trip in 2007 (go to a different place in either upper or northern lower MI each year) I cannot recall such a year without a winter up north. There should still be a few crusty inches left in Frederic, but parts of the keewenaw are bare. Depressing as that is, the northern wilderness is a nice getaway at anytime of the year. With the "law of averages/balancing" AND a la nina coming, Id just cut my losses on this year up north and get snow rakes and stuff while they are clearance, because they will need them next year