michsnowfreak

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

It seems accurate for my area but maybe not so much for others. Have to think this winter will only further the departures shown in a lot of the midwest that are lagging in snowfall over the last five winters.

2019-20 thru 2021-22 came out as close to average as you can get here. Last winter was below average but nothing crazy. This year certainly seems ripe for a much larger negative departure but again, I hate discussing stuff like this in a matter of fact way considering we have 2 more months that we can get snowfall.

Some lean snowfall years were practically a given. I would write the script a lot differently. Personally, I'd prefer a cold and dry winter if we're gonna do low snowfall (then maybe we'll have good snowcover). But most areas racked up such an excess of snow from the 2000s to mid-2010s that it would be an unrealistic dream to have that continue, and one would expect the 30-year rise in avg snowfall to level back off a bit.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. Using 1981-2010 normals for winter of 2019-2020, and 1991-2020 normals for all other years [including retroactively applying them to the entire winter of 2020-2021], with to date values used for 2023-2024, I computed the following running 5-year cumulative deficits for CLE's CWA:

Cleveland: -122.6" [181.2" observed versus 303.8" normal]

Mansfield: -120.3" [110.5" observed versus 230.8" normal]

Akron-Canton: -59.3" [163.1" observed versus 222.4" normal]

Toledo: -55.5" [120.3" observed versus 175.8" normal]

Youngstown: -98.6" [216.4" observed versus 315.0" normal]

Erie: -226.3" [267.6" observed versus 493.9" normal]

Looks like by the end of the winter, the 5-year deficit should range from 5-10 feet below normal areawide.

As I've noted before, the disparity in snowfall the past several winters between SE Michigan & NW Ohio has been greater than is usual. That's just going by a lot of visuals many storms, another thing is Toledo's measurements are taken well south and West of the actual city, so it's probably even worse than the city itself the past several years. It seems that's usually the case in the real mild winters. The difference in colder winters is much less and every once in a while Toledo can even beat Detroit.

22 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

This winter should enhance this map nicely.

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI.

Flint averages 52.0”
2019-20: 53.7”
2020-21: 48.6”
2021-22: 60.5”
2022-23: 46.5”
4-year cumulative +1.3”

Detroit averages 45.0”
2019-20: 43.7”
2020-21: 44.9”
2021-22: 47.1”
2022-23: 37.1”
4-year cumulative -7.2”

Grand Rapids averages 77.2”
2019-20: 53.5”
2020-21: 46.1”
2021-22: 71.0”
2022-23: 110.7”
4-year cumulative -27.5”

7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Right, because an all time historic storm is the weight measure. When you say something this ignorant it just proves you are being disingenuous to the discussion. Oh and this entire state has seen bigger storms too if you are going to go with top end values.

Exactly. Where and when has Missouri even seen 2 feet of snow lol? Kansas City has not seen a 12"+ snowfall since 1962, and although St. Louis saw one in 2013, they have never in recorded history seen a snowfall drop 16" or more, and only once (1912) had a storm drop over 14". If we are going to play it this way, let me count the storms where someone in the Detroit area got 14-18" in a storm (Jan 1/2, 1999, Dec 11/12, 2000, Jan 22, 2005, Jan 1, 2008, Jan 5/6, 2014, Feb 1/2, 2015, Nov 21, 2015). That list grows if you count any one over a foot. 

And yes, the lake enhancement is absolutely a factor why Chicago outdoes Detroit in the EXTREMELY RARE monster storms (and Detroit outdoes Chicago in 6-10" storms). Look at just west of Chicago to Rockford, IL. Their biggest storm of all time was 16.3" in 1918 (less than Detroit saw in 2015). The only time they have eclipsed a foot in modern times is 2011 (14.3") and prior to that, the last storm of a foot was in 1948. Again, talking ONE foot, not two. If the only thing in weather you want to see is something thats a once or twice in a lifetime event, and everything else is nothing, then weather is not the hobby for you lol. 

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

It's interesting that your futility records are so low. Toronto, Rochester, Syracuse are still well within futility records. 

One of the "fortunate" products of a slightly warmer winter climate has been an increase in precip and snowfall. When I look at the top 10 least snowy winters for Detroit, 5 of them were terrible, mild non-winters almost everywhere, but the other 5 can be blamed on terrible luck and the warm & wet to cold, dry & suppressed pattern. 

Some popcorn snow squalls today. Been a while since we have had these type where snow varies literally every few yards. Some areas had whiteouts, others just flurries. I received 0.2" in Wyandotte. Looking at freeway webcams earlier was crazy. The SW of DTW there was nothing and NW of DTW easily 1-1.5". I drove a straight west-east road for a 5-mile stretch and saw it go from dusting to inch back to dusting in that 5 miles. Very airy fluff, settling/evaporating in the cold wind.

Congrats central Ohio. Of course I'm jealous it didn't hit further north, but it's well deserved!

4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Is this cumulative days of 1” depth in a season or consecutive streak? If it’s the former I’m surprised it’s not over 100. 

Cumulative. 

For consecutive, the top 5 longest streaks consecutive days 1"+ snowcover are:

1.) 81 days - Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904

2.) 77 days - Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014

3.) 73 days - Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945

3.) 73 days - Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 14, 1978

5.) 72 days - Jan 8, 1912 - Mar 19, 1912

Top 5 longest streaks consecutive days T+ snowcover

1.) 119 days - Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904

2.) 110 days - Dec 9, 2013 - Mar 28, 2014

3.) 109 days - Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 25, 1978

4.) 101 days - Nov 30, 1919 - Mar 9, 1920

4.) 101 days - Dec 6, 1962 - Mar 16, 1963

I broke down Modoki La Ninas at Detroit, since Ive heard it may be Modoki. But I also want to look at 1st year Nina and Nino-Nina transitions to look for any trends. Main trend I see is, for a change, December is our friend.

MODOKI LA NINAS                 
           Oct  Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr  May  Tot
1973–1974   0   0.1  16.4  14.1  11.2   5.7   1.7   0   49.2
1975–1976   0   6.5  19.8  15.1   4.9   7.5   2.1   0   55.9
1983–1984   0   3.5  19.9   9.9   8.7   9.7   0.1   0   51.8
1988–1989   T   1.0   6.3   5.3   9.6   2.4   0.5   T   25.1
1998–1999   0    0    1.2  27.3   7.8  13.2    0    0   49.5
2000–2001   T   1.3  25.1   3.4   2.9   5.4   0.9   0   39.0
2008–2009   0   2.2  21.4  25.2   8.5   1.0   7.4   0   65.7
2010–2011   0    T    9.3  17.9  31.7   8.6   1.6   0   69.1
2016–2017   0   0.1  16.8  11.8   2.2   6.9   0.1   0   37.9

Avg         0   1.6  15.1  14.4   9.7   6.7   1.6   0   49.2
1991-20 avg T   1.9   8.9  13.9  12.2   6.2   1.5   0   45.0

34 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport.  Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. 

If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw.

Mean Snow Depth (Winter)

Mean Snow Depth (Spring)

Mean Snow Depth (Fall)

Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

Houghton has never been whats considered a 1st-order station. You can never trust any of that data. Marquette didnt become a 1st order station until 1961.

34 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t think many people comprehend how little snow has to fall in a winter for futility records around this region. I mean look how bad things have been in the UP for businesses that rely on winter, yet a place like Calumet is already well above their futility records and it’s only mid February. 

The UP is a different ballgame, especially with their lake belts, terrain, etc, but for Detroit, if you REALLY want futility, everything has to go wrong, not just some things. Some examples would be a warm, wet Nino that turns cold, dry & suppressed. Or a wall to wall warm winter where the cold shots have little snow with them. Its futility for a reason. Anytime we get an undesirable winter, people talk futility. And its way worse after being spoiled rotton with a parade of record snow seasons from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s. Look at this season as a whole. December was horrible...doesnt mean Oct/Nov snow doesnt count. Yeah, winter was largely confined to 2 weeks in January. But we had a parade of snows, one after the other. It wasnt just a little 1 inch snow followed by 10 days of brutal cold. Plow drivers were putting in 100-hour weeks in that 10-day spell. That all count. Yesterdays snow didnt last a full day. It counts. And so does whatever happens the rest of the way.

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

And with 5.5" reported at GRR yesterday the bottom 10 futility record is now in the rear view mirror.  We are not sitting at #11 on the list going back to around 1900 or so.

DTW is at 21.8", so if not another flake fell it would only be #11 as well. And we all know with 2 more months of snow potential that is extremely unlikely. Terrible as the winter has been, we were not gonna run futility with a stretch like the one we saw in January. 

29 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

The question of will it snow on Easter has to be dealt with.

Knowing Easter is March 31st this year, I joked with my mom as we handed out candy to trick or treaters through snow squalls, that with a snowy Halloween, we would have no snow on Christmas and a white Easter. One down...one to go.

21 hours ago, Stebo said:

07/16 big severe in May in the plains May 1983 solid everywhere including locally.

I was born in May 1983 & never knew that!

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I started this thread and now it's time for me to use it.

I've been on these boards for over 20 years and for the past nine years I've been here reading about those in the subforum being happy with their snow amounts, while others' lament their lack of winter/snow. One year Iowa scored big, another year it was the Detroit area, another year it's Chicago, another is Minnesota, etc.

I would like to know if there is any location in the subforum north of Central IL, Northern IN, or Ohio that has been consistently below normal for the past nine years. It seems there's been a lot of pissing and moaning about lack of snowfall, but can you match what we in Indiana and Ohio have experienced? 

Stats for MBY:

30 Yr. Avg.	33.6"
2015-'16	21.9"
2016-'17	14.8"
2017-'18	27.9"
2018-'19	28.9"
2019-'20	27.5
2020-'21	35.9"	*
2021-'22	24.4"
2022-'23	19.5"
2023-'24	9.2"	**

*The only thing that saved me from being below normal EVERY year was a fluke 4.1" snow on 4/20/21 that completely melted in hours.

**It is currently snowing which may result in finally getting into double figures on 2/16!

It's soul-crushing, especially immediately following back-to-back years of 74.7" and 43".

Maybe those of us in Indiana and Ohio outside of the lake belts should switch to the Tennessee Valley subforum.  Oh, wait......there's been a dearth of severe weather in this area over the same time period.  I guess we can talk about being abnormally dry.  At this point all I can say is bring on spring!

Hope you overperform tonight. Indiana/Ohio have definitely been screwed, but dont leave our sub! 

I mentioned not long ago that there has been an unusual disparity between Detroit & Toledo many, many times since 2015-16. Ive seen countless systems where its as if Mother Nature makes the state line of MI and OH/IN her rain/snow line. Historically, Detroit averages 8" more per year than Toledo, but the last 8 years its been 15" more per year.

Things even out eventually, so I have no doubt some good times for IN and OH are coming. What better place to start than a La Nina next winter? 

4 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, Im a big fan of snow on ground. 36 days with at least a trace of snow on the ground. The highlight was 15 in a row in mid January 

We didnt see as much melting as you guys yesterday. Grass is still covered here and a few squalls overnight helped. So Should be able to make it to Tuesday with snow on the ground 

Yesterday was one of the weirdest I can recall. My ring camera records a daily timelapse and it was crazy. bare to instant white which then melted off. 

I am putting the cart before the horse because every day counts and you know damn well it can snow through April. But this winter will rank much worse in snowcover than snowfall lists here.

To-date, Detroit has only seen 28 days with a Trace or more on the ground. Keep in mind, a T snow depth is either a dusting (0.4 or less) or patches/skiffs of old snow. So a T of snow depth is not a blanket of snow, and while the observer in me is certainly anal about putting 0 when 0 and T when T, the better metric for snowcover IMO is days with 1"+. Plus its a much easier metric to track over the period of record. And to date, Detroit has only seen 18 days with 1"+ on the ground. The peak snow depth was 7", which is not bad. But the amount of days in total is horrible. The yearly average is 49 days, the all-time low being 10 days (1936-37) & high 96 days (2013-14). *note- I only have snowcover since 1906, although Id estimate the true all-time low is either 1881-82 or 1889-90. Ive estimated about 8 days probably for 1881-82 and only maybe 5 days in 1889-90.

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, yea....a great winter for you probably sucks on the east coast and vice versa.

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how well he did in 2002-03.... that's such an underrated winter that did well for a lot of people.

PD2 was also extremely underrated, rarely do you see a storm dump over 2 feet of snow in Baltimore, JFK AND BOSTON.

Those kind of widespread snowstorms seem to have become an endangered species.

 

 

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking of that season as a possible exception where we both did well.

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14.

As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather.

I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety.

DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0”
BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2”

Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30:
1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”)
1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”)
1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”)
1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”)
1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”)
1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”)
1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”)
1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”)
1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”)
2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”)

Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30:
1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”)
1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”)
1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”)
1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”)
1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”)
2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”)
2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”)
2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”)
2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”)

Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston
1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”)
1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”)
1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”)
1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”)
1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)
 

39 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Exactly. Reflectivity had some great returns on this

What a wild day. The wind is howling now and all the snow is gone except where people shoveled. 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

Different story here. Liberty is correct in that most Nina's following ninos are decent snow wise. There are some exceptions, but the majority are decent. In fact, of the ones you listed, the only clunker snow seasons here were 1954-55 and 1995-96.

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

I guess it's jumping way ahead, but snowy Winters in the great lakes and upper midwest are common in la nina's. And with an active storm track we certainly don't need a cold winter, just not the crap we had most of this winter. 

44 minutes ago, DocATL said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/yVWKoWgvVpYCWcf1/?mibextid=WC7FNe

I brought the Georgia warmth with me to Chicago to ease me in to the winters here!


.

Well, you've had your easing in, next winter, you can leave that crap down south

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

2023-2024 winter leaves the least snowy winter of 2011-2012. Now at 19" on the year with todays 3" 

 

Hamilton and my backyard are now at 12" on the year. 

Oh wow I didn't realize you were still that low. Have you kept track of how many days you've had snow on the ground?

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Not quite sure what I'm exaggerating or who's called me out. We suck at big dogs plain and simple. That's all I've been saying. Never have I said I didn't enjoy 6-12 events, they just don't get me all excited anymore. The shit today is what's annoying. Just enough to mess up the roads.

See down here you would have loved it lol. Blinding snow, 2 inches fell in one hour and then throughout the day it melted. I expected nothing to be honest, so it was awesome to see. But it doesn't matter how good or bad the winter is, how much or little snow we have, I HATE watching snow melt. I know Beavis hears me on that. 

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

wow you guys just wont let Toronto catch up haha. You guys are somehow getting everything to go your way in a bad winter lol 

The winter post mortem will be interesting to analyze the entire snow season. goes without saying that mean result SUCKS, but there have been some interesting quirks.

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Looks like y'all did better than north of the city up in macomb. Can still see the grass here.

35 dbz on radar. This was a steve snow. Blinding heavy snow followed promptly by melting. It's nearly all gone now.