michsnowfreak

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree. I would take a weak event, regardless of orientation ....the reason you have good events that were weaker Modoki, like 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 is because other, extratropical elements take on more importance with respect to the predominate forcing.  1983-1984 was decent, too....even 2016-2017.

Of the 25 la nina winters since 1950, 15 of them I would gladly take a repeat, and only 3 are a big hell no.

After multiple record snow years spoiled weenies rotten circa 2005-2015, a lot vocally had that mindset that an average winter or even a slightly better than average winter was just not acceptable. Sounds so ridiculous now.

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the results are of course mixed, but some of those winters were truly godawful lol.

14 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah there were a couple good ones in there (00-01 and 08-09), but most of those winters were bad. The Niña doesn’t need to be weak, but I would like to avoid a modoki at all costs. I actually care about that more than the raw strength. I’d rather take my chances with a strong basin wide Niña than a weak modoki. 

I'm fine with strong. Strong ninas are actually the snowiest here. Modoki have such wildly different outcomes in snow & temps, makes you wonder how much of a player the modoki part is.

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

The instrumentation at DTW is none of this, I don't know what your motive here is but you might want to stop it. The instruments on the field have been in the same spot for almost 40 years and my office where we would take back up readings if needed isn't some north facing sub-standard office. We are in a ramp control tower with 360 degree view of the entire airfield.

I have had extensive knowledge of Detroits entire climate record for decades, a local climate history encyclopedia if you will. Most long time posters here know this. It's interesting that all of a sudden, someone who does not live anywhere near here is an expert on our climate history . It goes without saying that things are different now than they were 150 years ago in many aspects at any climate station.

The picking and choosing of what old data we like & don't like is ridiculous. Detroits roads were DIRT in the 19th century and the transportation was HORSES. Yes, i can see how taking temps in the exact spot now in a concrete jungle with cars everywhere is apples to apples . Present day DTW, while absolutely properly calibrated, placed, sheltered & monitored, is still near tons of concrete, especially since new runways were built several years ago. Meanwhile, Detroit City airport hasn't been a 1st order station since 1966. All automated, the record is sprinkled with missing data, questionable temperatures, no snowfall reports, and questionable rainfall amounts- it is no more accurate or used for official purposes than any other coop site.

Lastly I am not surprised that the top three are being undermined by him, I fully expected it. But any and all available records for the area are similar. 1881-82, 1931-32, 1889-90 were very warm winters, and none of them had anywhere close to the stretch of wintry weather we saw for a few weeks this January. That is the difference. 

Toledo also placed at 4th warmest winter, edging out 1881-82 by 0.1° but behind 1889-90, 1931-32, & 1879-80. Chicago placed 5th, behind 1877-78, 1931-32, 1879-80, 1881-82. 

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My list since 1950 is:

1973-1974, 1983-1984, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key to having a shot in Modoki is remaining weak and/or having a very high ACE.

Thanks! Hard pass on '88-89 & '11-12. But one good thing here is that for whatever reason, strength of the Nina doesn't matter (unlike Nino). All strengths of Nina have good/bad seasons but lean towards the good ones. Strong Ninas actually are the snowiest strength.

Nino to Nina transition years and high ACE are also things I like. And of course, the age old "law of average" that after a highly anamolous winter the next one is the opposite type.

As the tropical season and Nina develops throughout the year, this should continue to be an informative thread.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's pretty horrifying to see all these wildfires all over the middle of the country.

It's definitely unlike any winter I can recall. The good part is that it's unfathomable that next winter or any winter in the near future will be like this in this region. The winter has basically been non-existent (by midwest/Great Lakes standards) outside of that 2 week stretch in January. It was a pretty good stretch of deep winter, so had it not been as potent as it was, the winter would look even worse.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought he meant Moderate* La Nina

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not a Modoki at all.

Wikipedia was wrong. Imagine that .

Can you confirm the other years were correct? Or do you have a list of modoki years?

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On what planet was 2010-2011 a Modoki La Nina?

My ENSO knowledge is quite limited, so I go with what I read online lol. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation#:~:text=Recent years when La Niña,2011%2C and 2016–2017.

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see how it can be much worse anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of about 40* latitude. 

No arguments from me there. 

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

ACE level is never close to a foregone conclusion.

I figured. In any event it will be interesting to see how the season does unfold. it will also be interesting to see how la nina develops. Certainly early signs are encouraging here for a MUCH better winter next year, but a lllllong way to go.

28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

YYZ only goes back to 1938. Here's the top 10 for Toronto going back to 1840. I used Toronto till the mid 1950s and YYZ thereafter because of the continued industrial revolution skewing anomalies. As of now 1931-32 holds the title for us. I guess you could make an argument that those pre 1955 winters if they happened today with all the UHI, they would be a lot warmer. Therefore, for that time, which is considered to be a much cooler time globally, those winters were incredibly warm vs normal. 

 

We lucked out in 1965-66 with 27" in January but snowfall outside of January was abysmal. And 1957-58 was shit here too, snow wise. Temperature wise both winters finished slightly above average but not by much. We finished near average for 1972-73 too, primarily thanks to a snowy November and December where 60% of our winter snow fell in those 2 months. 

I made a post in the other thread about strong Nino's. Every strong/super Nino since 1982-83 has been an absolute blowtorch across North America. Quite the opposite with other notable strong Nino's like 1972-73, 1965-66, and 1957-58. It seems like 1982-83 was the tipping point. Though aside from the temperature anomalies, one thing remains constant. They were all largely snowless for the entire region. We seem to fair much better and snowier with strong La Nina's. Of the majority of YYZ's top 10 snowiest winters, most are strong Nina's. I'd assume it's the same for Detroit. 

I also like to look at trends in general for the region (even though I hone in on Detroit). LOTS of mild winters in the 1930s-50s. Im fact, in particular the early 1930s & early to mid 1950s winters were absolutely dominated by warmth and lack of snow. But then an abrupt shift in the 1960s-70s. I mean there were a few scattered warm winter months for sure, but any shitty winter in the 1960s-70s would most likely be due to bad snow patterns rather than warmth.

But one of the most intriguing things Ive ever seen in the climate record is the winter yo-yo from 1874-1882. I have noticed it before in passing, but I really started paying more attention to it with this winters warmth making news about Minneapolis surpassing the infamous 1877-78. This stretch of years literally alternated from furnace to ice box every other year. WHAT in the world was going on with the weather patterns over that 8 winter stretch? Each of the 8 winters has remained firmly entrenched in Detroits top 20 coldest/warmest winters list (4 a piece) for the last 140+ years.

(all rankings current as of 2024)

1874-75: #2 coldest Detroit, #15 coldest Chicago, #7 coldest Toledo

1875-76: #19 warmest Detroit, #7 warmest Chicago, #9 warmest Toledo

1876-77: #19 coldest Detroit

1877-78: #16 warmest Detroit, #1 warmest Chicago, #8 warmest Toledo

1878-79: #14 coldest Detroit

1879-80: #12 warmest Detroit, #3 warmest Chicago, #2 warmest Toledo

1880-81: #13 coldest Detroit

1881-82: #1 warmest Detroit, #4 warmest Chicago, #5 warmest Toledo

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”

2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”

1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”

1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”

1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”

2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”

2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”

1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”

1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”

1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”

 

AVG NYC:  35.1” vs 28.5” mean (23% above mean) all years since 1868-9; 1 MAN, 5 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% above median

 

AVG BOS: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean (33% above mean) all years since 1890-2; 2 MAN, 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% above median

 

 If you get a chance, calculate the mean/median for these same 10 years for Detroit. Each season’s snowfall can be obtained here:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=dtx

 I’m curious to see what you find. Also, DC folks can go here for their snow:

 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

 

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 DTW: 42.6"

2005 DTW: 36.3"

1893 DTW: 45.5"

1926 DTW: 46.3"

1995 DTW: 27.6"

2004 DTW: 63.8"

2017 DTW: 61.0"

1950 DTW: 42.2"

1961 DTW: 28.1"

1998 DTW: 49.5"

AVG DTW: 44.3” vs 41.1” mean (8% above mean) all years since 1874; 2 MAN, 3 AN, 2 NN, 2 BN, 1 MBN; 7 out of 10 above median.

I also note that for Modoki La Ninas snowfall is also above avg:

1973-74: 49.2"

1975-76: 55.9"

1983-84: 51.8"

1988-89: 25.1"

1998-99: 49.5"

2000-01: 39.0"

2008-09: 65.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

2016-17: 37.9"

Avg: 49.2 vs 41.1” mean (20% above mean) all years since 1874.

Question though and I apologize if I missed it. Are we just assuming this years ACE will be high? Or is it a foregone conclusion?

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

This winter (DJF) is officially the warmest on record at YYZ with a mean temperature of 32.5 (0.3C) and 0.5 ahead of the previous record holder (2001-02). Other top 6 winters are 2011-12, 2015-16, 2022-23, 1997-98, 2016-17, and 2019-20. 5 of the top 8 have been since 2015-16 which is fucked. @mississaugasnow

Either the warming has exponentially accelerated or this is just a result of the 2015-16 super nino hangover on the globe. Hard to say right now but facts are facts. Winters are getting warmer. Only 2013-14 and 2014-15 are the two recent winters to be in the top 12 coldest at YYZ. Everything else is pre 1982.

Snow is nothing more than just a byproduct of the existing pattern. It takes just one or two storms or a "snowy" week to change the outcome between a snowless and snowier winter. We saw that perfectly this winter. The warmer oceans maybe playing a role in enhancing storms. But if we continue on this warming trend, at some point, snow will play catch up and we'll have to constantly deal with marginal temperatures and mixing. 

1972-73, a key analog some have used for this winter, was considerably colder across the entire continent. And some other notable strong Nino's (1965-66 or 1957-58) were also considerably colder. The 1982-83 super nino changed the game and every strong/super Nino since then has been incredibly warm. 

How far back to YYZ records go? Surprised none of those warm 1870s-80s winters weren't on the list. 

1957-58 and 1965-66 locally had warm, wet Decembers followed by cold dry rest of winter. Each had less snow here than this winter and were really many weenies nightmare pattern (warm and wet to cold and dry). It's surprising that 1957-58 wasn't warmer (outside December) due to a strong Nino and many mild winters preceeding that year. 

1972-73 was interesting. It was amidst one of the coldest stretches of the climate record, so I'm wondering if that made it a bit colder overall (arguably the same for 1965-66). We had enough snow to make it an avg snow season (even a tick above at the time). January was warm and snowless but Feb was cold. The first half of March was and still is the warmest on record then we got slammed with a big St Paddy's day snowstorm. 

Some historic strong Ninos that were very warm winters include 1877-78, 1905-06, & 1918-19. Most areas had little snow as well (esp 1918-19).

My take is that strong Ninos are going to have other factors at play (the current weather/climate cycle of the time, Pacific, blocking, PNA, NAO, etc) but in the end, a strong El Nino is never a sign for a good winter, at least in the Great Lakes. 

4 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

That is crazy you have been there.  Not a lot of people can say they intentionally went to the Woodsfield area.  I grew up just to the west of Monroe County in Noble County.  That is indeed a beautiful part of Ohio and nothing like the area North of I-70 and West of I-71 which is what most people think of when they think of Ohio. 

I have a good friend who I always tease because she loves Ohio and she is always saying most of the state is not like what you see on the freeway.

34 minutes ago, Powerball said:

With only 3.1", February 2025 will tie for the 19th least snowiest on record for DTW. It will also be the 4th driest with only 0.24: of precipitation.

From wettest Jan to 4th driest Feb.  *EDIT* bite your tongue. Don't be jinxing next Feb 

Feb was 3rd warmest, behind only 1882 & 2017, edging past 1998.

Winter DJF finished 4th warmest, behind 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Still a solid 2° colder than the incredible winter of 1881-82. 

Despite tying for the second least snowy December and tying for the 19th least snowy February, a pretty snowy January kept this DJF snowfall (20.2") well outside the top 20 futile list. If no more measurable snow fell the rest of the way, this season (22.6") would tie for the 13th least snowy season on record. However, if 2.6" or more falls, it would not make even the top 20.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

What's great tho about living in a UP snowbelt, even in the weakest of weak winter's, by most people's standards it was still winter, and for once I'll be happy to not see the snow linger into May. There might actually be a spring this year.  But yeah, it is a little unbelievable how little snow there is.

Oh for sure. When people in the north say "we didn't have a winter" they don't mean it literally. In places like TN or NC If they get one or two measurable snowfalls in a winter and a good cold snap, it's remembered as success. But it's a different beast in the north. For me personally, this winter has probably edged out 2011-12 and 1997-98 for worst winter in my memory. It has been remarkably boring outside of a 2 week stretch in January, but there still has literally been some snow in those boring times lol. 

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like Detroit will finish with a mean of 37.1F, good for third warmest February on record. In addition to the monthly maximum record of 73F on the 27th, the low of 49F on the 9th tied for warmest minimum of record in the month of February [previously set on February 20, 2018].

Its interesting that February has never seen a minimum temperature of 50°+, considering January is the coldest month of the year, but 8 times has seen a minimum of 50°+ (highest 55° in 1950 & 2008).

42 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is kind of nonsense I'm talking about... January 22, 1906 headline of the NY Times "Winter Heat Wave Sends Crowd to Coney Island" - the high was 60F in New York City that day. But apparently crowds were flocking to the beach to beat the heat. The story continues on Page 2 talking about caterpillars dropping from trees and butterflies flying around in Rutland, Vermont. 

Here's the story from Pittsburgh [then Pittsburg] from the NY Times:

Oh no! It was 74F on top of the hot roof of the Farmers National Bank Building - that's a 344' skyscraper that was tore down in 1997 BTW. But urban heat island effect didn't exist in 1906! Lol.

Anyways, the absurdity of this is hilarious. A "heat prostration" in January - why didn't the guy take off his winter coat? And why were steel and glass mills shutting down? How the heck did they operate in the summer?

Oh, and some things never change - that blizzard the Weather Bureau forecast, yeah that didn't happen.  It apparently was a blizzard in the middle of the country with temperatures as low as -16F in Missouri though.

Ok yeah that article is ridiculous lol. I've definitely never seen anything that dramatic in the Detroit Free Press. During summertime heatwaves they would list the number of heat prostration. But 70s would not cause that. The Jan 20-22, 1906 warm spell (also a strong nino) was very impressive for the time of year but the above article is similar to modern day clickbait.

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

It’s definitely warming, but I don’t think this is a winter that’s atypical from what strong El Nino’s are. Let’s be honest though, the Pacific is roaring and there’s little snow cover north of here. These powerhouse lows are going to keep bringing gulf air followed by a big cool down

This winter was very typical of a strong nino weather wise in the midwest. I've said it a 100 times, strong El ninos are basically guaranteed crummy winters in this region. There has never been a good one. So during a strong nino, you hope some of the other atmospheric factors are on your side for a few good spells. But this year, other than Jan, the Pacific doubled down for an extra F-U.

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

-3 this morning with an afternoon high of 19.  Rollercoaster ride in temps continue tomorrow, back in the upper 40's.

Did receive a windswept 5 inches of snow after the record warm temps a couple days ago.  Snow stake measuring a foot otg.

Deepest snow in the UP is at the Eagle Mine co-op site just nw of here where they're reporting 19 inches otg and the Munising co-op with 18 inches.

I have been to Munising several times right around this time of year and this is usually when they have their deepest snow of the season. Usually it's quite a sight to see with snow nearly to the rooftops of many one story houses. So when I saw that the snow depth until the other day was around 6 inches, it was almost unbelievable.

3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I remember reading and researching climate change/global warming as a kid.  The one thing that has stuck with me was the talk of drastic/wild temperature swings much like we are seeing.  Is it really even a debate anymore?? I think the wild extremists that talked of oceans rising 10ft and ridiculous temps muddled the waters and created a bunch of skeptics and conspiracy theorists.  Which are now grown adults with  very loud Social Media speakers..

Probably the wrong thread but Winter's is over for the foreseeable future.  

I've said this for years. Agenda pushing extremists with their unrealistic, outlandish "predictions" are CC's own worst enemy. 

As for temperature swings, that's more of a gray area because there's always been temperature swings, and they are usually magnified in El Nino and La Nina winters.

Assuming you mean this winters over for the foreseeable future?

Does anyone have a link to yearly ACE numbers? @raindancewx has me Intrigued lol.

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

We've got about an inch of snow. Not usually note-worthy in February but it is a shock to the system after yesterday's Spring-like weather.

Just flurries floating in the breeze here, but our 24 hour temperature difference of 72 to 26 was impressive. 

3 hours ago, Brian D said:

Looks like a solid 2nd place for DLH this winter, but still 3F cooler than 1877/78.

1877-1878 - 28.0

*2023-2024 - 25.1

1997-1998 - 22.4

1881-1882 - 22.0

1930-1931 - 21.5

MSP will have this one in the bag by 1F.

*2023-2024 - 30.0

1877-1878 - 28.9

1930-31/2001-02 - 26.8

2011-2012 - 26.2

1881-1882 - 26.0

And just a few miles down river at LaCrosse a solid 2nd about 2 1/2F cooler than 1877/78.

1877-1878 - 34.2

*2023-2024 - 31.6

1881-1882 - 29.6

2001-2002 - 29.2

1997-1998 - 28.8

 

Looks like MSP is a hotspot up this way in the our part of the sub.  

A lot of parallels to 1877-78 this winter, including the core of the most insane warm departures in the upper midwest. 1877-78 was very mild here too, but ranks as 15th warmest. Most of the other powerhouse warm winters of that era rank higher (1881-82, 1879-80, 1889-90).

Detroit will end up as the 4th warmest winter for 2023-24, but still a solid 2° colder than the grandaddy of winter warmth 1881-82.

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That sucker went deep at 500 mb.  

That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March.   

4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

 

March 16-18, 1973 total snowfall:

Toledo, OH: 4.0"

Detroit: 10.1"

Flint: 14.3"

Saginaw: 21.7"

Despite that incredible storm, March 1973 stands as the 6th warmest on record for Detroit (behind only 2012, 1945, 1946, 2000, & 1910).

The first half of March (thru the 15th) in 1973 is by far the warmest on record at Detroit, a full 2.5F warmer than 2nd place 2012.

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.