michsnowfreak

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

I guess thats the difference between Detroit and Toronto. We are just enough further north east that our top 10 is significantly higher. You guys wont even crack top 20 this year but top 20 is near guaranteed here. 

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

snowfall averages are about the same its just the temp were a bit colder on. We are about 1.5C cooler in January for average high. 

Thats probably just enough in bad winters to get us that extra little bit 

Dont jinx either of us lol. We still need almost 9" more to avoid #20 lol. 

I have extensively researched both our snowiest and least snowy winters, using local newspapers as well. The "open" winters, as they called the low snow years, were just sh*t winters. Some were unreal with warmth and just terrible patterns for snow/cold (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1948-49, 1952-53), but others had plenty of opportunities where we sat cold and dry (1936-37, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66). When I say cold and dry, none of them were particularly cold winters in mean temp, but they all had plenty of times where it was cold enough and we just wouldnt snow. Detroit has not been in a snow-hole winter since 1995-96. However, this happened several times in the days of yore (see 57-58, 60-61, 65-66). In a demented way, Id even argue we were in a snow-hole-lite in 1977-78. Hard to say that in a 61.7" winter, but snowfall was greater all around us.

I wish records existed from the little ice age. There are books written which have pieced together local weather from the 1780s-1860s (records began 1870s) and just like now, winters varied a great deal. But one startling thing is that there were some very cold and very dry, open winters with very little snow. (this is also documented in Minnesota, as there are journals of weather from this time). 

The slight warming of winters is a help, not a hindrance, to snow chances in a cold climate surrounded by lakes. (while not in a snowbelt, the amount of lake effect and lake enhanced snow has absolutely increased here the last 20 years or so). 

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Probably not quite as bad as officially recorded, but still bad no doubt. Lots of "traces" - in fact, a lot of trace depths with only trace accumulation. Don't really see this today. Suspect a lot of these would be small accumulations today (0.1-0.3").

On top of the fact, that most bigger snowfalls are inflated by about 15-20 percent with 6 hourly measurements versus once daily: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News

We can thank a slightly warmer climate for the absence of those "cold, dry" winters that happened, although infrequently, in the old days. A majority of the least snowy winters were warm, but there were several that were closer to avg or even though mild overall, had a long stretch of cold weather that didnt produce a lot of snow (1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66 just to name a few....57-58 and 65-66 had warm decembers but cold thereafter).

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like Josh is using xmACIS with a small adjustment to 1881-1882.

NWS Detroit amounts are similar, but a little higher for some of the early years. I'd probably assume the local NWS numbers are more accurate.  I believe a lot of this data is retrieved through automated means and it sometimes makes mistakes - especially with snow. I noticed similar discrepancies in the Pittsburgh records, and when I compared to the actual records (where available - some of the earliest years aren't available), the local NWS numbers were correct, not xmACIS.

I have to check with DTX why some of those years are off pre-1900. I used the #s based on the official data (I have had it all long before xmacis existed). 

18 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's even worse than Toledo, which Josh always likes to pretend gets completely different weather patterns.

Note that the 5th lowest at Toledo is 16.0" versus 15.4" for Detroit. 10th lowest is 18.4" versus 18.0" for Detroit.

When did I ever say Toledo gets different weather patterns? I said in recent years theres been a big cutoff, larger than usual, which is 100% true. Last winter alone, Detroit had SEVERAL snowstorms that Toledo didnt get anything (or rain) from, and the same was seen in 2021-22 (to a lesser extent). Meanwhile, in 2021, Toledo area had near 20" on the ground in Feb. I never said Toledo cant score, or that Detroit cant get bad winters. But Toledo has been in a snow hole far more often than Detroit. Average snowfall is 7" or 8" less in Toledo than Detroit.

Oh, and btw...if youre going to compare Detroit to Toledo, you have to start in the same year. Toledos records didnt start til 1891. So get rid of Detroits #2 and #6 least snowy winter (actually, Toledo DID have records in 1889-90, they reported just 6.0" for by far their least snowy winter, but for some reason, NWS starts records in 1891). So since 1891, Detroits #10 least snowy is 22.0", more than Toledo.

Also, lets compare Detroits top 10 to Toledo's top 10:

01.) 94.9" - 2013-14 ---- 01.) 86.3" - 2013-14

02.) 93.6" - 1880-81 ---- 02.) 73.1" - 1977-78

03.) 78.0" - 1925-26 ---- 03.) 68.2" - 1981-82

04.) 74.0" - 1981-82 ---- 04.) 63.7" - 1895-96

05.) 71.7" - 2007-08 ---- 05.) 60.6" - 1966-67

06.) 69.1" - 1899-00 ---- 06.) 59.4" - 1969-70

06.) 69.1" - 2010-11 ---- 07.) 58.1" - 2007-08

08.) 67.2" - 1907-08 ---- 08.) 56.8" - 1993-94

09.) 66.5" - 1929-30 ---- 09.) 56.0" - 2004-05

10.) 65.7" - 2004-05 ---- 10.) 53.9" - 1952-53

Since 1891, # of winters in each category:

Toledo ---------Detroit
80”+ - 1 -------- 1
70”-80”- 1 ----- 3
60-70” – 3 ----- 11
50-60” – 7 ----- 14
40-50” – 20 ---- 39
30-40” – 43 ---- 34
20-30” – 33 ---- 23
10-20” – 20 ---- 8
M data – 5 
 

18 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

What are the top 10 least snowiest winters in Detroit? 

Here's the top 20

01) 12.9" - 1936-37

02) 13.2" - 1881-82

03) 13.7" - 1948-49

04) 15.2" - 1918-19

05) 15.4" - 1965-66

06) 15.8" - 1889-90

07) 16.6" - 1952-53

08) 17.1" - 1968-69

09) 18.0" - 1957-58

09) 18.0" - 1960-61

11) 20.0" - 1982-83

12) 22.0" - 1945-46

13) 22.6" - 1937-38

14) 22.8" - 1943-44

15) 23.2" - 1888-89

16) 23.4" - 1941-42

16) 23.4" - 1997-98

18) 23.7" - 1999-00

19) 24.1" - 2003-04

20) 25.1" - 1988-89

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

wish it had been meth, check fraud, or something less icky 

should probably check whether a certain former mod had any contact. 

Judging by those pictures, I'm sure they're not strangers to meth either.

38 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Largest dense fog advisory in US history?

It's soupy for sure

11 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

That whole stretch from the 1877-78 Nino all the way until like 1890 was just a wild 15 years in the Midwest. Madison had a similar snap back and forth in record warm and record cold winters in that stretch. Including what was likely our snowiest winter ever in 1880-81 if the precip totals from melted snow are to be believed. Also 1880-1885 was our wettest 5 year stretch ever until arguably 2015-2020, with what is probably one of if not the biggest flood in state history in June 1880. The Wisconsin River had a flow of over 100,000CFS at Wisconsin Rapids, the only gauge with records that far back. Later on 1887-88 was a record snowy year further north in Green Bay, where they recorded almost 150" of snow that winter, and then followed up with 120" two years later in 1889-90. The next snowiest year is "only" 93.5" in 2010-11. We really didn't have a crazy stretch like that again in regards to precip and snowfall totals and whiplash really until the late 2000s, and its been like that ever since. 

I should do a post on that stretch and research some more. That's insane about 1889-90 as it was warm and snowless here. This is on my to-do list lol 

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Solid snow this evening making for another dicey commute. X-way was the worst. Estimating 2-3 inches fell right around 31-32F. Nice to see b4 the warm RN up next. This was a fun stretch considering the ENSO backdrop. 

What did I miss lol? When did you move?

14 minutes ago, Brian D said:

True, it was baity I guess. Wx extremes are very cool, hot or cold. But GW fanatics only like to point out the hot stuff, and call the rest just normal fare. Wx weenies love both. And yes, it will be a warmer end to the month for our region, especially in the N.

And last winter was a record snow year for many areas around me, but this year has swung to the opposite, so far anyway. It can swing really quick around here. 2012/13 is one example.

Agree on all counts. Its like inappropriate touching to the fanatics to point out cold/snow extremes. No one is denying climate change, but the Great Lakes/Midwest is a region with cold winters/hot summers, so most winters, no matter how "warm" they are in the mean, will have some cold/snow stories to be had. And quite honestly, back to the graph chinook posted, I am quite surprised what a bout of deep winter this region saw for a strong Nino. I knew we would have cold shots and snow while some were on a ledge in December, but did not foresee a blast like that. Hoping some more fun is had in Feb/Mar.

So much of the season to go, but year-to-year rubber-band snaps can be wild. Locally, there were insane ones from 1880-81 to 1881-82, 1917-18 to 1918-19, and 1981-82 to 1982-83. But the 5 year period from 1877-1882 was downright wild.

1877-78: warm

1878-79: cold

1879-80: warm

1880-81: cold

1881-82: warm

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I enjoy getting outdoors in the winter also. The Great Lakes region is one of most beautiful in winter if you like cold and snow. It’s one area that is really positioned well next few decades for potentially increasing Lake effect snowfall as the warmer lakes stay ice free longer. While winter surfing in my original hometown of Long Beach was very popular, this guy closer to your part of the country takes it to a whole new level.

 

 

 

Incredible. Each region of the country has their flaws & beautiful points, but winter in the Great Lakes is always a fun time, especially up north, but even down here in the southern Lakes. @MJO812 needs to move to a lake belt. Colder winters often see less snow in total (2013-14 was an absolute epic defy-reality type scenario of insane cold AND snow) but more snowcover and with lakes and waterways frozen you can see some incredible things (hiking ice caves on the Great Lakes is an incredible experience). Warmer winters are frustration to cold/snowcover lovers (especially here in the southern lakes) BUT the tradeoff can be more storms and more lake effect. Look what just happened with the big arctic blast, lake belts got pummelled. Now the warmth will returning, keeping ice at bay, and if the cold does materialize towards mid-Feb, they will get it again. Warm winters do create more intense storms too; since last winter I have seen thundersnow and blinding snow rates multiple times. Winter just doesnt sustain itself.

On the east coast, its clearly more feast/famine to begin with and seems to be getting even more extreme. I cant imagine the frustration snowlovers in nyc are going thru, but it wasnt long ago that nyc was seeing record snowfall (2010s). The wait may be torture but warming oceans and a milder winter climate on the coast may lead to some incredible snowstorms. The famine will outweigh the feast, but when you feast, you will FEAST.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Wasn’t November below avg? 

Yes, especially in the east. NYC it was -1.3F, BOS was -1.7F. Here at DTW it was -0.2F.

1 minute ago, Jonger said:

I'm not sure about this. The lowest is probably near Escanaba, but even they average at least 70. It goes WAY up as you go north from there.

No way does Escanaba avg 70". I thought there was a map awhile ago from MQT. Ill have to try and find it. But obviously it goes way, WAY up north of there towards Superior. 

24 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, for Toronto they will need about 14" between February-April to stay out of top 5. Completely doable to get 14" in that time period. 

Average probably wont even come close since we would need 28" in that time period and if that happens that would be something historic haha 

Very doable for Toronto. Although far from a lock. If Detroit saw not one flake the rest of the way (impossible lol), it would be the 7th least snowy winter. To avoid top 10, just 1.8" more is needed and to avoid top 20, 8.9" more is needed. 

Much like this stretch of deep winter we are coming out of, should there indeed be a sharp reversal from warmth to cold as we head towards mid-Feb, that still does not sort out the haves and have nots of snowstorms until we are closer in.

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

To be honest, I'm not seeing it. Looks like the Detroit River area was 1-2 feet last winter on the NOHRSC national map.

Lmao. You've got to be kidding me using that map. And actually that would be monroe county, the downriver area are 2-3 feet. That map shows Pittsburgh got like 6". Every official station in southeast michigan had 45-50" last winter except DTW 37". The fact that toledo had way less (several times we had heavy snow and they had heavy rain) means nothing. It's like saying that buffalo did not get 3 feet of snow since rochester only had 2 inches.

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Every single climate site in NWS CLE's CWA averages more snowfall that DTW, except for TOL (which itself is within the SE Michigan zone of influence - heck, it was supposed to be a part of Michigan originally) and more representative for places like Adrian, Lambertville and Monroe. And all of them except for ERI are outside of the main snowbelt. Even PIT's average of 44.1" is about the same at DTW, despite being nearly 2 degrees further south.

I don't know how you can deny the I-75 corridor / upwind lake plain region frequently misses out on a lot of big storms, that impact places further east and west.

They average more strictly from Lake Erie influence. It isn't a snow hole just because its not in the snowbelt. There are actually places in the banana belt of the upper peninsula & northeast Lower peninsula of  michigan that average around or slightly less know than Detroit or Pittsburgh (but more snowcover). Detroit averages 7-8" more than Toledo, but it's more extreme in warm winters, with last year being a great example. It's like the old saying, sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the best snow. That was the case last winter. Some great storms and snowfall rates but not for cold and snow cover

Just now, mississaugasnow said:

Wow you've seen a lot. Toronto has only seen 8" in the last two weeks. But you're very optimistic when it comes to snow season haha.  It can snow in April as we've discussed a bunch but you tend to act like its a full winter month lol 

Lol no April is NOT a winter month. I just mean you usually get a little bit of snow to pad the season total, and when talking futility that season total is what we base it on. Since we've had a stretch of deep winter, now what i'm really interested in is if once this warm start to february passes, can we see a big widespread snowstorm hit the region?

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t like using whole month analogs for a snapshot of a 5 day forecast to start February, the warmth being forecast across Canada is more significant than at the peak of the February 1998 warmth. While the cold over the last 10 days was impressive, its magnitude and aerial coverage was weaker vs cold past extremes than the warm extremes in December. The CONUS finished with one of the warmest Decembers on record. The cold was too short and not extensive enough to rank very high for monthly January cold extremes for the CONUS. But it was impressive for cold on a regional level even if the duration was much shorter than the December warmth.

Yeah, I was just talking as a whole. I really do feel we're in for another repeat of what we just saw with a huge snap from warm to cold. The difference is this one may give more cold to the east coast and this last stretch did. I love the frigid cold and spend a lot of time in it. But I'm not gonna lie, it was absolutely brutal at times. Looking back at how warm it was in December (After halloween snow and a frigid thanksgiving weekend), if we truly do another snap to extremely warm to start February followed by a sharp reversal to cold, it will really be one of the more bizarre winters I can recall.

3 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Today kicks off on what looks to be the longest overcast stretch of the season that will last through the end of the month.

Amateur. Come up to MI and we'll show you an overcast stretch 

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

@Snowstorms Toronto will probably pass the 2011-2012 winter with this event. Top 5 is still in the game especially with the way late January and early February is looking. Though this two week stretch was nice and has scratched the winter itch. If it torches the rest of the way I wouldnt be upset 

In the past 2 weeks I saw 14" of snow. This is why I dont like talking futility early lol. DTW is at 16.3" on the season with just over half of the snow season statistically to go.

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

And the month-to-date anomalies:

That illustrates it perfectly Don, thanks!

Even here on the "edge" in Detroit, we had -30F wind chills and the + departure was quickly wiped away.

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

And yet it was the third least ever at Toledo, just a short jog down I-75. The DTW numbers are inflated, and not representative of what many experienced in southeast Michigan last winter. You know I've been all over the place, and southeast Michigan is often in a snow hole with more snow to the east, west, north and south.

Regarding the TOL data, A LOT of very warm years too - look at that! 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Can they make it a FIVE-peat? Talk about a dynasty.

Dude, you went bat shit crazy MELTDOWN because it was pointed out, in jest, that you didnt barge into our subforum to post the stats of the record cold week most of the middle of the country saw Jan 14-20th (or as you refer to the coldest 3rd week of Jan on record, "run of the mill" winter weather). You get so hurt when someone points out ANY cold or snow stat and start crying they dont believe climate change is real. Seriously, what is wrong with you?

And how the HELL is DTW not representative of what residents of southeast Michigan experienced last winter? I dont believe for one second youve ever been here or "all over". If youve ever been, especially recently, youd notice what a huge difference there often is between Detroit and Toledo. SE MI is not in the snow belt, so obviously theres more snow in west MI. But more snow to the south? You MUST be joking. SE MI hasnt been in a snow-hole in years (1995-96 the last time I recall). We had multiple good storms last winter that Toledo & of course Pittburgh missed. Youre right though (for the wrong reason)...I guess DTWs snowfall isnt representative of what most in SE MI saw in 2022-23: Flint- 46.5"...Saginaw- 46.7"...Ann Arbor 51.6"...DTX NWS 44.7"...DTW 37.1".

Im thinking when DTW had blindingly heavy snow, 6.5", on Jan 25th you missed it since PIT was 45F with snow turning to rain. Maybe you also missed when DTW got 6.2", blizzard conditions, thunder & lightning Mar 3 (when the northern burbs got 10"+) since PIT was 45F and rain. Must have also missed Mar 3 when our beautiful 5.2" was a 42F-rain in PIT. 

15 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The shift was dramatic in the Plains and Great Lakes areas. January will wind up colder than normal in many places there (particularly the Plains States).

Beat me to it Don. The 7-day period Jan 14-20 was one of the coldest on record for most of the middle third of the country, which is why I said midwest (and southern Canada). The east coast missed the brunt of the cold.

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean things aren't so hunky-dory even in the upper Midwest this year. I know MSP missed out on last year's disaster, but 9th lowest total to date with a blowtorch moving in.

Minneapolis is absolutely in a mega snow-hole this winter. 

But Minneapolis didnt "miss out on last year's disaster". Detroit "missed out on last year's disaster" with 37.1", only a bit below avg. Minneapolis had a downright fantastic winter, their 3rd snowiest on record and 7th most snowcover days. Minneapolis has not had a below avg snow season since 2016-17.

54 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Why do I need to comment on typical "run of the mill" wintry weather? NWS says we finish the month 3-4F above normal, on the whole. The coldest low at Pittsburgh was 7F. It used to drop below zero almost every single winter. It was like 22 below 30 years ago.

You arent the only one who can visit xmacis.

Pittsburgh winters WITHOUT a below-zero temperature, by decade.

2010s- 3
2000s- 5
1990s- 2
1980s- 2
1970s- 2
1960s- 0
1950s- 5
1940s- 4
1930s- 7
1920s- 6
1910s- 3
1900s- 4
1890s- 5
1880s- 4