mahk_webstah

Trolls FTL finally?!?

Another one 29th? That should get the MidAtlantic if the 26th doesn't. Big party on the east coast.

Actually Wunderground is ramping up just now. 6.1 starting Thurs-Fri, and total of 15+ through 1/26. Has is snowing 7 or 8 days starting the 19th.

so we get the burst overnight Thursday but then it continues ivt all day Friday? Then the next one comes Sunday morn? Then big daddy for all of us on the 26th? How we hope.

with that kind of storm there are places where 10:1 would be quite underdone no?

I was telling Nick the same thing...but a man can hope. We are due for a run and maybe this is it.

You think we get through these 4 storms with mostly snow?

How can you look a the NAM 850 low on something that is for the 23rd? This isn't the thread for Thursday Friday storm.

maybe Thursday-Friday is the tipping point to a snowier regime. Fingers crossed! By the way, is that the ideal path for the 850 low for us?

this is the total for both storms? suggests the second one is mountains only in nh and vt.

but then you have upslope, nu?

Ridge bridge developing, and that is a good example of how west coast troffing is not a death knell, depending on how it is set up and what is happening at high lats and in the Atlantic. Let it be so.

Hmmm, I was thinking 4-8 so that might get to the warning criteria of 7. There are still caution flags, but that just might be me being gun-shy from this year. Glad to hear your enthusiasm, because one of my caution flags was the comment you made a few days ago as to how this could suddenly go far north. Looks like that isn't happening, so the question is advisory and warning, and how Ray does, and how Kevin feels about the whole thing given that he's SOP

I am in the process of making that happen. Yiddish is definitely NOT jibberish, and let's hope this storm isn't either. We might get a pack going and that will help us all, if indeed the next storm is the inflection point. Or maybe this one is. The guidance from both GYX, WPC, and my Wunderground (lol), has been solid for a moderate snowfall for at least 5 days. We have had the sudden swing to bad news that we have been getting on storms up to this point. That in itself would be an inflection.

sometimes swfe ramp up i the guidance, but then fall back to swfe climo. 4-8 across my area is my guess.

Embrace the diversity of America. Zaln mir ale zeyn tsufridn! And enjoy the thread while it lasts, because I think it might have a short shelf life, but hopefully not the storm.

Maybe the people of the book can help us with a pattern change? Which model do you believe? Can we keep hope alive? GYX says maybe a chance to +PNA, and a -NAO. But maybe not. Will Thursday be the start of something good? I say yes , trolls say NOPE, I say NOP. What say you? Will this thread curse us? Will it even get one reply? Oy!

The GYX long term lays it out well NG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB pattern continues with split flow and very blocky, weak flow through the end of the week at least. Some changes possible this weekend as possible strong E Pacific ridging develops, setting up a stronger +PNA pattern, followed by a developing block over the Atlantic early next week and a possible -NAO. Following the Euro this would portend more winter-like conditions. However, the previous models run, showed nothing of this sort, so confidence is low. Main event in the extended will be the coastal low developing to our S late Thu and quickly tracking E across the Gulf of ME. 500 MB closed low over the N Plains on Thur moves quickly to the E Thu night and Fri and does manage to some brief phasing and become weakly negatively tilted, which should produce a burst of decent dynamic and mid-level thermal forcing Thu night, with a decent burst of precip /mainly snow/ Thu night. Highest QPF, for now, is over southern NH, but it may start as rain here Thu afternoon before changing to snow. Also, warm antecedent temps, may limit accums early on as well. However, snowfall rates could be intense for a few hours overnight, and this may help overcome some of the warm ground melting. Several inches look possible, with the bulk of the snow falling Thu night. Lows Thu night will range from around 20 in the N to around 30 in the S. On Friday, the sfc low will quickly move into Nova Scotia, but weaken sfc low associated with upper level low will move across proving some light snow, especially in the morning, with Highs generally in the up[per 20s to low to mid 30s in the S. SHSN possible in the mtns Fri night, but cold aid air behind this system is limited and will last for a day as Sat highs push back into the upper 20s to mid 30s, but Sunday they will be in the 30s to around 40 in southern NH. There is a chance for some SN Sunday night into Monday, but latest Euro and GFS are very different in that period, so Chc POPs are quite reasonable attm.

I am prepared for Thursday Friday to underperform, and for the 23-24 to cut. But it might not, as there is a lot of disagreement in modeling. The outcome could be very good for some, and then some cold will come. We are in much better shape than 2 weeks ago.

now lets see if we can juice it up to a 6+ swfe instead of a 4+

it feels sort of like a step down. The snowpack, though only 2-4 inches, is persisting. Step downs can be good as opposed to violent fast swings.

well the miller A isn't a gradient pattern kinda storm though.

Looking at the new WPC stuff, snow probs moderate to just south of the NH border, and high near to Laconia on north. But a "modest" event (3-6 here perhaps). I didn't realize the 23rd was a Miller A, but it comes all the way up the coast, perhaps just inside the BM. But the low is modest as well in this depiction, only 1000mb just ne of the BM at 12Z 23rd. Doesn't seem like anything exciting, but is there another behind this?

wunderground can be pretty good at times, often cutting or raising accums before the official forecast. Now it says steady snow developing the afternoon and an inch. Looking at radar, its coming.