mahk_webstah

The GYX long term lays it out well NG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB pattern continues with split flow and very blocky, weak flow through the end of the week at least. Some changes possible this weekend as possible strong E Pacific ridging develops, setting up a stronger +PNA pattern, followed by a developing block over the Atlantic early next week and a possible -NAO. Following the Euro this would portend more winter-like conditions. However, the previous models run, showed nothing of this sort, so confidence is low. Main event in the extended will be the coastal low developing to our S late Thu and quickly tracking E across the Gulf of ME. 500 MB closed low over the N Plains on Thur moves quickly to the E Thu night and Fri and does manage to some brief phasing and become weakly negatively tilted, which should produce a burst of decent dynamic and mid-level thermal forcing Thu night, with a decent burst of precip /mainly snow/ Thu night. Highest QPF, for now, is over southern NH, but it may start as rain here Thu afternoon before changing to snow. Also, warm antecedent temps, may limit accums early on as well. However, snowfall rates could be intense for a few hours overnight, and this may help overcome some of the warm ground melting. Several inches look possible, with the bulk of the snow falling Thu night. Lows Thu night will range from around 20 in the N to around 30 in the S. On Friday, the sfc low will quickly move into Nova Scotia, but weaken sfc low associated with upper level low will move across proving some light snow, especially in the morning, with Highs generally in the up[per 20s to low to mid 30s in the S. SHSN possible in the mtns Fri night, but cold aid air behind this system is limited and will last for a day as Sat highs push back into the upper 20s to mid 30s, but Sunday they will be in the 30s to around 40 in southern NH. There is a chance for some SN Sunday night into Monday, but latest Euro and GFS are very different in that period, so Chc POPs are quite reasonable attm.

I am prepared for Thursday Friday to underperform, and for the 23-24 to cut. But it might not, as there is a lot of disagreement in modeling. The outcome could be very good for some, and then some cold will come. We are in much better shape than 2 weeks ago.

now lets see if we can juice it up to a 6+ swfe instead of a 4+

it feels sort of like a step down. The snowpack, though only 2-4 inches, is persisting. Step downs can be good as opposed to violent fast swings.

well the miller A isn't a gradient pattern kinda storm though.

Looking at the new WPC stuff, snow probs moderate to just south of the NH border, and high near to Laconia on north. But a "modest" event (3-6 here perhaps). I didn't realize the 23rd was a Miller A, but it comes all the way up the coast, perhaps just inside the BM. But the low is modest as well in this depiction, only 1000mb just ne of the BM at 12Z 23rd. Doesn't seem like anything exciting, but is there another behind this?

wunderground can be pretty good at times, often cutting or raising accums before the official forecast. Now it says steady snow developing the afternoon and an inch. Looking at radar, its coming.

my wunderground forecast just changed to snowier, with periods of snow and an inch today. radar doesn't show anything, maybe some meso?

but a spectacular kid to call you out.

Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient. Brian's area had almost 150". We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles. I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol. But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border.

jelly?

I was thinking the same thing. Weren't parts of 07-08 like this, with NH getting constant 6-12, but SNE getting screwed a few times? I feel cautiously optimistic, though that is a dangerous state of mind this year. I've noticed WPC has been pretty steady in showing a moderate chance of snow up here Thursday-Friday, and GYX seem reasonably confident for a plowable mostly snow storm. I know we are right on the edge, but it can be a very good set-up for us sometimes. Also this comment from the overnight GYX AFD: Overall, at 500 MB, the pattern across NOAM begins to show signs of something closer to +PNA than we have seen lately by the end of the week, and even perhaps a -NAO toward Day 7-8, but this is low confidence at this point. Also, some signs of colder air moving equatorward out of the Arctic, but how much of that makes in into New England remains to be seen. Although the trend is for closer to normal temps, 850 MB temps still stay mostly several degrees C above normal based on SPC RAOB climatology for GYX. As far as precip goes, fairly dynamic, but fast moving 500 Mb closed low looks to bring the best chance of widespread precip Thu-Fri. And this comment from Legro yesterday afternoon: Wed high pressure builds towards the area as another area of low pressure ejects from the Plains and moves towards the Northeast. As things stand right now the pattern is supportive of a more inland track. However the pattern is also supportive of holding the low level cold air via damming. So for the time being I have hedged cooler at the surface while allowing for some mixing with warmer temps aloft. The set up is fairly reminiscent of many of our snow to sleet events that follow with a dry slot and drizzle. That pattern looks to remain in place into next week...and so we could have a few more chances for snow in the next 7 to 10 days...along with some risk for mixing.

Flurries up here

Lovin your energy this afternoon!

I don’t know if that’s the proper use of that symbol, but don’t shit on us coastal!

He may be right and getting behind this depiction, but it’s been a strange year, and I think a lot of different things could happen. One of the wild cards could be a redevelopment of the NAO blocking we had in December showing up again in February.

And the eps is the warmer of the globals yes? I think there’s a good shot we just scrape by with mostly snow, a high end advisory.

If it’s warm core won’t there be subsidence inland? I wouldn’t mind a good generation day for my panels. Been the worst month ever so far.

All we need is a little Scooter high and we’re all in business.

I noticed both GYX and WPC seemed slightly more enthusiastic here for all or mostly snow. If that is the case here then you’ll do very well on the hill.

He’s a nice guy and always willing to lend a hand. But he can’t make it snow.

That is definitely progression east of the above normal probs which likely above normal all the way back to chicago and Minneapolis

I will look up the 6 to 10 when I’m back in the house but if that represents a progression from the 6 to 10 and it’s a slow but steady march, then there’s a chance that it stays for a while with us once colder

WPC outlook seems fairly optimistic for CNE and NNE for late next week, and the 8-14 says CA stays dry.