mahk_webstah

my wunderground forecast just changed to snowier, with periods of snow and an inch today. radar doesn't show anything, maybe some meso?

but a spectacular kid to call you out.

Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient. Brian's area had almost 150". We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles. I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol. But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border.

jelly?

I was thinking the same thing. Weren't parts of 07-08 like this, with NH getting constant 6-12, but SNE getting screwed a few times? I feel cautiously optimistic, though that is a dangerous state of mind this year. I've noticed WPC has been pretty steady in showing a moderate chance of snow up here Thursday-Friday, and GYX seem reasonably confident for a plowable mostly snow storm. I know we are right on the edge, but it can be a very good set-up for us sometimes. Also this comment from the overnight GYX AFD: Overall, at 500 MB, the pattern across NOAM begins to show signs of something closer to +PNA than we have seen lately by the end of the week, and even perhaps a -NAO toward Day 7-8, but this is low confidence at this point. Also, some signs of colder air moving equatorward out of the Arctic, but how much of that makes in into New England remains to be seen. Although the trend is for closer to normal temps, 850 MB temps still stay mostly several degrees C above normal based on SPC RAOB climatology for GYX. As far as precip goes, fairly dynamic, but fast moving 500 Mb closed low looks to bring the best chance of widespread precip Thu-Fri. And this comment from Legro yesterday afternoon: Wed high pressure builds towards the area as another area of low pressure ejects from the Plains and moves towards the Northeast. As things stand right now the pattern is supportive of a more inland track. However the pattern is also supportive of holding the low level cold air via damming. So for the time being I have hedged cooler at the surface while allowing for some mixing with warmer temps aloft. The set up is fairly reminiscent of many of our snow to sleet events that follow with a dry slot and drizzle. That pattern looks to remain in place into next week...and so we could have a few more chances for snow in the next 7 to 10 days...along with some risk for mixing.

Flurries up here

Lovin your energy this afternoon!

I don’t know if that’s the proper use of that symbol, but don’t shit on us coastal!

He may be right and getting behind this depiction, but it’s been a strange year, and I think a lot of different things could happen. One of the wild cards could be a redevelopment of the NAO blocking we had in December showing up again in February.

And the eps is the warmer of the globals yes? I think there’s a good shot we just scrape by with mostly snow, a high end advisory.

If it’s warm core won’t there be subsidence inland? I wouldn’t mind a good generation day for my panels. Been the worst month ever so far.

All we need is a little Scooter high and we’re all in business.

I noticed both GYX and WPC seemed slightly more enthusiastic here for all or mostly snow. If that is the case here then you’ll do very well on the hill.

He’s a nice guy and always willing to lend a hand. But he can’t make it snow.

That is definitely progression east of the above normal probs which likely above normal all the way back to chicago and Minneapolis

I will look up the 6 to 10 when I’m back in the house but if that represents a progression from the 6 to 10 and it’s a slow but steady march, then there’s a chance that it stays for a while with us once colder

WPC outlook seems fairly optimistic for CNE and NNE for late next week, and the 8-14 says CA stays dry.

Cold air is absolutely the missing link this year

A painful memory for you

The trolls keep winning

FU

Also swfe and miller b if the highs to the north hold. Chances and risks

Onto the trails for you!

Maybe slightly more here. Radar missing some echoes

If we can get a solid -nao, which we should as they usually repeat, we could have a nice stretch even with -pna, and maybe a nice storm if the whole trough comes east. Swfe and miller b time for the next couple weeks.