mahk_webstah

I just wanna say....SNH is a large area. All the way from Brian down to the border.

his guidance comes from well above 500mb

It's EVERRYWHERE!!!

out to sea sucked away by the SE Ridge?

Lol I'm not a Met but that ain't a SE ridge. You are pulling out a 5 day op run to troll? Do better please.

you sound like Ray

It doesn’t seem like a set up though that’s suddenly going to switch to a cutter like the one last month, so frankly I’d like to see a quickly trend to much closer to the coast

That S-isotherm (classic KU) makes that look like a Mid Atlantic special unless the Low in Maine is lifting fast.

there is no way that huge SE Ridge is gonna let that happen.

At some point before March, I'd like a real real cold period. The vegetation etc. likes, needs that.

that EPS map was disturbing... although I think we are going into a snowy period at least up here.

If a troll is right, are they still a troll?

Ray Storm Jan 13-15?

It’s mid January and there’s a lot of action on the models. This is good. Details to play out.

Sometimes, with our words, we create our own reality.

So many times (Jan '11) we see a big storm and then a great pattern following. Then we get the big storm and the pattern goes to poopoo. Lets just a decent storm, maybe Jan 14, and then see what happens.

seems like a decent chance for a good storm region-wide Jan 14ish

a few weeks later, shorter wavelengths(?), a little luck this time perhaps.

I'm not a fan of those patterns that look epic for the Mid Atl and SNE. They tend to not work out here. I like swfe patterns and ones that occassionally bomb out miller b style. And patterns that produce clippers into really cold air. Sometimes we can do well on the "epic" patterns, but often not. That being said I'm not looking for a pattern that dumps all the cold and energy into the west.

glad we don't live there.

not epic but could be workable up here. seems there will be scooter highs to the north.

With the exception of losing a really warm day (which is always nice) GYX is optimistic re the return of winter. Ya wonder how much that Thursday low will bring. But either way, there should be a frozen coating for snow to begin to lie on at some point in the not too distant future post Friday. For the temperature and resultant precipitation forecast, primarily colder guidance, especially the high res NAM was used. There is still likely some room to bring temperatures down further in future forecast packages for Tuesday as all of the guidance trends in the cool direction. Outside of the mountain valleys it`s unlikely that any areas would stay below freezing for more than a few hours once the precip begins, but temps are likely to sit between 33-36 degrees much of the day afterwards, with the highs for the day likely occuring in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Based on a multi model consensus it appears like winter returns to much of the forecast area as cold air sags southward out of Canada and allows for overrunning precipitation from time to time Tuesday night into Friday. While temperatures warm appreciable aloft Tuesday night (up to +11c at 850MB in the southern zones), weak SFC low pressure looks to form in the Gulf of Maine as well which should keep any sort of warm front from zooming northward through our forecast area. While highs around 60 are still possible for southern NH on Wednesday, the rest of the region should see highs falling into the 40s and 30s as cold air bleeds in from the north as per many of the 00z deterministic models. Have blended several of these models in with the NBM which I believe is still too warm for Wednesday. With overrunning precipitation expected on Wednesday and cold air undercutting the warm air aloft, we should see some frozen or freezing precipitation falling in the mountains by the end of the day with some freezing rain accretion likely. The forcing for ascent wanes Wednesday night but warm and moist SW flow above a cooling boundary layer should still offer light precipitation, a mix of snow and freezing rain as far south as portions of central NH and southernmost ME by 12z Thursday. Therefore a slippery morning commute Thursday is quite possible. Light frozen or freezing precipitation continues Thursday as another low pressure system develops just off the coast with cold air now firmly entrenched at the SFC most areas of the forecast area.

It’s funny to read your last three posts given the ones from others right before them.

Some of this needs to go to the panic thread, not be in the pattern thread.

We teeter. I kind of like teetering, because like you, I have enjoyed this recent weather. My hope is that we teeter for a while, but the winter slowly bleeds back in and gets deeper and deeper, and stays here for about six weeks, much better than the radical ups and down in my opinion.