mahk_webstah

where do the midlevels on Monday track, and is it just a ccb, or is there deformation further nw? In other words, where is the heavy snow on Monday afternoon?

Man, if you look at that radar presentation, you think Secs or Mecs from Philly North. Much better radar presentation than the other day. I think this is going to over perform.

All good but the lipstick baby. They do a good job with continuity and have done well recently. I also like the technical discussion and helps reinforce what youse Mets are sayin.

This a nice overnight discussion from WPC Northeast... Days 1-2... A deep upper trough traversing the Mississippi Valley on Sunday spawning a wave of low pressure in the Southeast will track up the Southeast coast Sunday night and off the New England coast by Monday morning. Ahead of the upper trough, unusually rich moisture for late January races up the Eastern seaboard Sunday night. At the same time, a sufficiently cold air-mass will reside over the interior Northeast. There is a slight chance (10-20% chance) for freezing rain accumulations >0.1" in parts of the central Appalachians of WV/VA and the Catskills. There is a rather large swath of 40-60% probabilities for at least a very light coating of freezing rain from the Blue Ridge and Laurel Highlands to the Poconos today as well. Temperatures will not be sub-freezing along the I-95 corridor to result in periods of snow Sunday evening, but their more inland and elevated neighbors to the north and west have much better odds of receiving heavy snow, especially from the southern tier of NY on north and east into central ME. Strong vertical ascent beneath the right-entrance region of a jet streak lifting north over ME and southeast Canada, combined with anomalous moisture content (PWs >90th climatological percentile according to NAEFS at 06Z Mon), will account for heavy periods of snow from the Catskills and Adirondacks on east to the Berkshires, southern VT and NH, and just north of the ME coastline Sunday night into Monday morning. After the initial front end thump via 850-700mb WAA Sunday night, the 850mb low forming over the southern New England coast early Monday morning directs low-level moisture flux within easterly flow back into southern New England. This conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture will lead to a brief deformation axis of snow that could result in a couple inches of snow across southern New England on Monday morning. Latest WPC PWPF shows 40-60% probabilities for >8" of snow in the Catskills, northwest MA, and portions of the Green and White Mountains of VT and NH. There are also some

Still time to trend and dampen. Been a lot of that lately. We trend and dampen.

Was reading that the issue is mid level track; surface track is fine but mid levels get fried. Could anything trend the ml better? we often dry slot in those scenarios.

Wednesday and Thursday seem dicey for many but we thump and bulletproof.

That’s really not going wild. That’s very consistent with what the models are showing. You are just having a hard time getting enthusiastic and believing you might have a nice storm. Trust me, I understand.

I’m thinking more 6-10 with a Lolli or 2 to 12 in the all snow strip. Too many different runs with higher qpf. Upside surprise possible.

That 10:1 I thought

I don’t think we’re getting an inland track. The problem is no high to hold cold in for long even with a coastal track

Because?

Nice for londonderry to Derry, and Nashua too.

What did the gfs ultimately show? Accumulations? How far south does some decent snow get?

I hope you do. I can’t tell you how much I’ve enjoyed walking in the woods with a nice snow cover lately.

So the GFS is progging a strong WCB push for CNE NNE and then CCB that’s more for southern New England? In other words, a storm that in the end gives a lot of us at least a few inches?

Agree. It’s a transfer of energy around the mid-Atlantic it appears. It’s not a Miller a because of the primary running up west of the Appalachian.

Looking at the radar I’m not sure how we would call that a swfe. Miller B

Even after a blip earlier today, wonder ground now has the Wednesday storm up to 9 inches even including some rain on Thursday. Then there’s a couple of inches progged for the 30th. SNE has to get in on some of this at some point.

I am pleased with the boards first Yiddish thread. Congratulations to all who prospered! Thank you moderators for not killing the thread at the beginning lol. lozn es shney!

Just looked at the WPC snowfall, maps, and QPF from a couple of hours ago. Looks good to me up here still and I hope more of you to the south get in on it.

The thing about qq is that I think he’s smart. I really don’t understand a person wanting to act like a trill, but to each their own.

Is that 5?

Nobody is right about February on January 22

Very detailed and thoughtful GYX discussion, and not Chris. Less snow Sunday night, some mixing, and Wednesday solo Ida a bit more liquid than I’m liking.