NavarreDon

Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids! .

Just wanted to pop in and wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Hope you guys get a present of a pattern shift & then plenty of white stuff. .

Currently cloudy & 47 in the W FL Panhandle. Rain is on the way, really cold & raw day up here! .

Yikes!!! .

Don’t normally post in the SE, but when you have a 6hr rain event like this…..! .

Sorry to bug you but it’s 45mph & 1004 pressure with a special update at 5pm edt. .

https://www.fox10tv.com/news/2-dead-after-road-collapse-in-george-county-miss/article_4ea38026-0a42-11ec-8928-eb8dfc3a59f5.html Hearing this was caused by excessive rainfall from Ida. .

We’re getting raked by a band right now. Extreme rain and 35mph wind mixing down. .

This is correct!!! .

At work, please delete if already posted… .

Philippe Papin @pppapin Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

A sobering wake up this am! Marshall Shepherd @DrShepherd2013 Start or continue PRAYING...#HurricaneIda catastrophic disaster unfolding. I am usually more nuanced. Not today. This is not hype. This is a professional meteorologist, director of @UGAAtmosSci and aformer Pres of @ametsoc sick to his stomach. 50 mb in 22 hr, rapid deepening

Here is part of MOB’s historical disco on Opal. On the morning of October 2nd, Opal intensified to a hurricane while centered 150 miles west of Merida, Mexico. By this time, Opal began to drift north as a large upper level trough moved across the central United States. Opal then accelerated to the north northeast on October 3rd and 4th and underwent a period of rapid intensification - strengthening into a strong Category 4 hurricane early on October 4th. The minimum central pressure of 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph occurred when the hurricane was centered about 290 miles south southwest of Pensacola, FL around 5am on October 4th. Rapid Intensification and Evacuations Anybody living along the northern Gulf Coast in 1995 will tell you they heard some unsettling news when they woke up the morning of October 4th. Gulf coast residents went to bed on October 3rd knowing that Opal was a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By 4am the next morning, the winds had increased to 135 mph. By 10am, Opal had maximum sustained winds of an alarming 150 mph, which is just below Category 5 intensity. Upon learning this, thousands of residents decided to evacuate at the last minute, which resulted in grid lock on many major highways, including Interstate 65. Many of these residents ended up seeking refuge in local shelters as Opal closed in on the western Florida Panhandle. .

An amazing light show happening 50 miles offshore in this outer band!!! .

130 mph max 125 mph landfall 938 pressure S of Dulac LA .

The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing! .

Yikes!!!….. 48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH .

Folks, you got a mod here telling you about the banter thread. Heed his subtle warning and please take the nonsense to the banter thread. Let’s reserve this thread for serious Ida discussion. .

The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo. .

Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L. .

Evening all, just wanted to check in and make sure you all are safe. All of you & WNC are in my thoughts & prayers! Please be safe and choose wisely!!! .

I’m about 45 miles west of them they’re about 60 miles west of landfall on CSB. .

I’m in between Pensacola & Fort Walton Beach. Grayton & Seagrove are on 30A in Walton county. They are about halfway between me and the projected landfall area. .

From EVX it looks like landfall around the Indian pass/Cape San Blas area in the next 2-3 hours. .