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Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications. I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news. Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job. 2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads.

Chattanooga was lit this weekend. Enjoyed a couple nice local hikes.

Actually @AMZ8990 my home barometer was sluggish. However I was too. Needed extra coffee. Four days overcast, or the pressure drop? Sun was nice by afternoon. Then the evening squall with CF almost impressed me. Usually don't get those with the Plateau slowing down things. It was just enough to remind me of a Plains cold front, though a milder version. Still, thumbs up!

I was sleepy AS so maybe the pressure, lol. My home barometer is an old one so did not really keep up. I should upgrade. Couple Halloween decorations face-planted. We will rebuild.

Olga Oct. 25-29, 2019 brought TS strength winds to West Tenn. Believe it was still designated TS or STS but greater than TD at the time. Back to current: Zeta caused a couple Halloween decorations to face-plant. We will rebuild, lol! PS. Dewpoints of 70-72 are quite frankly unacceptable in late October.

GFS and NAM have dews lower than the ECMWF. Enough rain on Wednesday would help prevent the higher dews advecting north. 70+F really is cruel and unusual punishment this late in the year.

Let's do it! I'm happy the Challenge will go forward despite the pandemic. Kansas at Tennessee will be close. We might not know the winner for a couple weeks. Just kidding! Last I checked the Champions Classic is still on for late Novie. However I think some of the bigger early season tourneys are cancelled. Big 10 fb starts this weekend. LOL that two of their teams have such high probabilities for the BCS. Really? They haven't even played one snap yet!

Next year we will do the Blue Ridge on Fall Break. Seems to go 7-10 days earlier than Tennessee or even the Smokys, timed with fall break. Those pics on the Parkway are stunning. Even the cloudy day the trees pop out. Here is Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway. Pictures are taken from just inside NC at about 4,500 FT. Higher was well past peak. Lower was green. Past weekend only a thin 500 FT section was peaking. We enjoyed that elevation quite well. I suspect the 3,000-4,000 FT area will be great this coming weekend on the Tennessee side.

Sports has been a disaster from Volunteer football to Braves base running. The only thing harder than being a Vols fb fan is being a Kansas fb fan. Poll. What's worse. 1. GFS extended 2. Kansas football 3. Atlanta base running Kansas and Tennessee fans look to NFL/Pro or await basketball season, and pray it's not covid crazy.

Ensembles and Weekies have settled on the hurry up and wait solution. Cold front coming. Just wait another 10 days. We can trust the timing. Halloween cold front is usually money.

Oh I saw a webinar yesterday about SSW and related events including early season, last warning, and something called reflection. I'm sorry I can't share it. However the reflection case resembles the ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern, which is also related to charts Jax shares including Asia and North America. All 3 tie in. Good stuff! Reflection is both horizontal and vertical. The vertical requires the stratopause be in a certain state. Warm energy from the West Pac Tropics pumps up a ridge in eastern Siberia. China gets cold. Pattern reflects a wavelength downstream over North America. Canada mild USA cold. At the right wavelength looking at Asia weather charts can help with USA forecasting.

Eddie Van Halen passed away. I'm going to be pretty bearish for a few days. Much above normal temps this winter. No snow. Nocturnal tornadoes.

Looks like MDT Nina. Oh yeah Jax our posts are three weeks apart. Definitely a different sequence. At any rate, tee up a SER most of winter. Cutters. Severe wx. SOS

That's good news, except for more of those snow clown maps on Twitter, lol! Euro at times gets even more carried away than the GFS, depending on the vendor algorithm. Baseball wild card was fun. Games all day like March Madness. Still have a ton of sports overlapping now with the NBA Finals, MLB playoffs, and lots of football. Ironic that after missing sports for several months, we now enjoy a huge sports period that started with the NHL and NBA playoffs. Now college football is full steam ahead.

Yes 1989 was the winter of record back in KC. All-time record low was set two nights in a row at -23 F. However that's for MCI since 1973. I think Downtown MKC has a colder older record, but that'll stand due to the urban heat island now. Apparently the 1989 wavelength was fairly big if Kansas and Tennessee followed the same pattern, vs cutter city over here. The blowtorch second half was the same too. Wow back in the days we had full latitude troughs for everyone! Other big years 1985 was more over here, cold but nothing spectacular in the Central Plains. 2000 was more there than here. I was about to put this in Fall; then, realized it's winter. All the out-of-region stuff I'll go Banter. Now in 2020 I'll go stubborn SER for at least southeast Tenn. I could see northeast Tennessee doing fine in La Nina. Then when the trough is Central US, a nice Mid South winter hammer. Everyone but CHA and HSV. Barring a one-day miracle.

I felt the same watching the Chiefs. When they looked awful I actually said out loud, I wish CBS would have saved me the pain and just shown Baltimore here! Things turned around of course. Why can't we have normal wins anymore? Always with a side order of heart attack, lol! Meanwhile the Saints choked last night. What is it with the NFC South? Can't stand the Raiders!

Big trade winds push in progress. Moderate La Nina is within striking range. Still feel like a good weak Nina. No borderline.

A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn.

Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.

Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol! Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable. Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too. If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go! Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!

Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere. Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad. So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!

Tuesday was interesting. Wednesday (today) looks like another possible Marginal to Slight upgrade. Similarities include a surface boundary in the region include CAPE (absolutely ludicrous humidity) and a CV / vort max coming out of Arkansas. Difference is surface is all veered off today. GFS/NAM keep it so. Euro 06Z develops a meso-low on the Ky/Tenn border that'd light up! PS the HRRR is doing HRRR things. Maybe 16/17Z closer to game time it will be useful.

Nice picture! Is she your daughter? Precious! It's funny I never know where in life forum members are. I've a daughter who loves the outdoors. She's a bit older, is every bit the explorer too!

The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino.

Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter.