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Had a thought this morning about making it work through thin cirrus. First, the chart below is solar flux. I feel like it offers a better picture than cloud forecast, which is straight coverage. Even high cloud model forecasts NAM hardly differentiates between thick and thin. Canadian does somewhat. This is from the NAM and it's similar to RRFS output. Still too many hours out for HRRR (which doesn't present high clouds well anyway) and the ARW/NSSL which will be valuable. ARW/NSSL is more precise than the NAM, but none promise accuracy. 18Z Edit this section (and other strikes italics): We'd thought about central Arkansas south of the high clouds, and hoping the increasing mid-level clouds from the south don't make it. Well that's a hell of an all-or-nothing gamble. Mid-level clouds thickening would block the show and be an utter disappointment. We are going to hedge our bets with the thin cirrus. I figure everyone reading has seen WPC and the Mid-South thread the needle chart. We concur. Chart below is different, again it's downward radiation flux. It's an hour after Totality because 19Z the high clouds didn't contrast well. New: Arkansas is looking better; we'll see how it goes, but keep met discussion to this region below.. Northeast Arkansas, Missouri Bootheel, Southern Illinois and Indiana are doable. I'm more optimistic than WPC about Western Ohio, but no promises. Note the lower values in central Indiana and western Ohio, by gentle gradient, are sun angle not cirrus. The smaller lighter areas are cirrus from Mizzou through southern Illinois to southern Indiana. Eastern Ohio of course has the departing morning wave too. Trying to dodge cirrus streaks is futile. We will lean south, but not much farther southwest than northeast Arkansas. Could be Bootheel or IL/IN. Thin cirrus would still show most of the eclipse. Think full moon at dusk, it shows through cirrus. The high clouds Monday midday will be darkened by the shadow, which helps greatly. Near a solar max the bold corona will be visible through thin cirrus. Longer delicate filaments are in question thru cirrus; however, they might be anyway near a solar max. 2017 gorgeous streamers were partly compliments of the solar minimum, though they can happen anytime. Finally the moon shadow would be a visible sharp line rapidly moving on the high clouds, like a flying saucer in a B-movie. I’d much rather the majestic navy-blue purple curtain shadow approach associated with clear skies, but the more marked shadow would actually be quite interesting. Obviously we don’t want to experiment with cirrus clouds. Hoping for clear skies. Last post before travel Sunday. By 00Z additional high-resolution products come out, and they are fairly self-explanatory. We eagerly await 18Z data and especially 00Z when the ARW and NSSL products will go through Monday afternoon. We will base from Western TN/KY Memphis. Totality destination will be firmed up Monday morning. Probably can't wait for 12Z as we need to get going early. Plan is to set up with hours to spare. In 2017 we arrived about an hour before partial phases started, but that was a layup 45 minutes from home. Looking for more cushion this time. Here in 2024 we will start south of Totality to save some bucks, and to hedge final destination in Totality.

Cirrus does form in a hurry, and it moves fast on jet stream level winds. It will be a forecast challenge. However it's not stopping us! Anything other than thick overcast will offer a show. We saw Totality in 2017 so the pressure is off, playing with house money. Obviously we want to see it again. One thing high clouds give that clear does not, is the sharp shadow in the sky like a B-movie alien arrival. 360 sunset colors are accented even more; think sunrise/set with high clouds. Sounds interesting but Hell No I'm not chasing that! Our goal is to sniff out some clear skies. Even broken cirrus moving along could give 1-2 minutes of full show in close to 4 minutes of totality. I think getting deep into the total path is important in case one loses time to passing clouds. Cirrus forecast looks like ribbons under an otherwise very thin (and broken) veil. Compare visible satellite earlier today with model output. Euro is definitely broad brushing high clouds and it shouldn't be that bad. Said jet stream and subtle lift could easily produce that much cirrus (a risk) but the NAM and Canadian try to get more granular - and the result is broken cirrus and/or ribbons of cirrus. This may be my last post. Saturday will be preparations, packing, and of course the higher resolutions models. Everyone can look at the hi-res stuff by then. Sunday is travel day. Example: Indiana and Ohio have workable real estate in this prog. Little patch in the Missouri Bootheel is obviously not reliable this far out, but it gives the idea of coverage. Illinois probably won't be as bad as shown. So this is not a forecast. It's just an idea of somewhat more granular presentation than the coarse Euro. High-res stuff will have even more detail.

Weather Prediction Center WPC is posting charts now. Upstate NY to New England is in play. For the Heartland, Missouri and Illinois have best odds on today's models. Some EPS give northern Arkansas a little more love. Some CEPS give Indiana slightly better probability than the Multi Model Ensemble below.

Monday morning got out of the gate quickly, but the afternoon / evening underperformed forecasts in our region. NAM sniffed out the issue Monday afternoon and evening. LLJ didn't ever recover here. It did Ohio Valley, enough for them to overcome our cutting off moisture. Then the Deep South had some classic late evening. Severe is often a headache to forecast outside the Plains. Couple tor reports North Alabama. Of course the Tennessee Cumberland Plateau got its obligatory tor. I believe the elevation, while staying relatively flat, gets greater low level flow.

I recommend the short drive to Totality. It's not hard if 30 minutes or less. Remember 99% partial is like losing the National Championship by a point. Even if the forecast is a mess, a 30 minute drive is absolutely worth the try for a once in a lifetime awe inspiring phenomenon. Even at 99.9% no corona or prominences are visible. No 360 degree sunset. The shadow would be evident to your side, and you'd see shadow bands on a white surface for several minutes. Animals will react. However the difference between that and Totality is the difference between kissing and getting married (and you know). Take side roads, especially back. We did in 2017 from 45 minutes away. We were relaxing back in town over steak dinner, not caught in traffic. This applies local/close. Long distance travel will be a whip Monday afternoon/eve. We'll stay over another night there in 2024. Bottom line: If you can get to totality in 30 minutes, even with a crappy forecast, try it. Totality hype is one of the few things in our hobbies that's not over-hyped. In fact it's under-hyped. No words or photos capture the incredible everything(s) about Totality!

Some models show low, mid- and high cloud forecasts. Might depend on the website. Also when we get into range of high-resolution the cloud forecasts will be more precise (hopefully also accurate). Globals tend to smear out clouds. Below is downward solar flux. In contrast to clouds (all or nothing) the solar flux offers hints at cloud thickness and coverage. Still six days out so don't take it verbatim. Just sharing another tool to get another look at the situation. Red is good white is bad. Been a couple days due to severe wx at work. @RidingtimeI want to say prioritize the eclipse. Depends on how often you get back to see family. Note the Mid South is another option not too far from DFW - iff such a scenario holds. Ohio Valley has been less consistent. I'm looking fwd to hi-res models this weekend - both for precision and hopefully accuracy.

Tennessee could have beaten Purdue. All those 12-15 FT jumpers for 2 points were just awful shots with low expected value. And lots of time on the shot clock to boot. Yeah try a 3 if open. Otherwise go inside and get fouled. I'm pissed. Though a Kansas guy, I've gotten attached to Tennessee basketball. Still a great season for the Vols! Congratulations to Alabama first Final Four in school history! Fans just have fun and soak it in. UConn is a tough assignment. Players should not fear UConn. Fans manage expectations and enjoy it. That's easier said than done though. Wichita St. 2013.

I suppose April climo they gotta drop the 10% tor for Tuesday. NAM suite is quite linear and positive tilt. LLJ never restrengthens or backs late Tuesday. Now the Globals do so, and I figure CAMs like RRFS and HRRR do too; because, they go line of pearls. My gut says the NAM but it has a cool bias. That said the NAM can sniff out LLJ failures. So if you get anxious about severe, don't fret just yet. If you chase, it's conditional. I'll be tied down with work so no chase plans. Any personal forecasting is 100% eclipse right now. I hate the cloud cover forecast but some downward solar flux versions offer hope. As we saw in 2017 globals often start too cloudy due to resolution. Flux helps a bit, but of course the high-res stuff will be much more useful. We need another forecast rally in 2024!

Go near the center if this is your first total solar eclipse. Or second or third, haha! Edge gives a longer diamond ring and I imagine just wild colors if thin high clouds. Still one can't safely look at even the diamond ring naked eye. I don't see myself playing the edge unless I'm lucky enough to see 10-12 of these (not likely). Totality is safe naked eye. In totality one can safely observe the smaller orange prominences. Also the wider corona is safe to view and one of the most - if not thee most - spectacular things in nature. I love storm chasing, and Totality blows the doors off most tornadoes. It's even better than a long-track cyclical. Northern Lights from the Arctic might be the only thing that rivals Totality, but I give totality the edge. Time charts you'll notice the length of totality quickly drops off toward the edges. But the center third one loses only a few seconds off the center-line. We got just off-center in 2017 and might have avoided traffic with the head start out. Same plan 2024.

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu. Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again) Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below) Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below) Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.) Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter Gotta read up to get pumped up!

My target is anywhere on that red path, of course the closer the better. Midwest is closest to me. Mid-South is a near second. TX and OH are my next tier of back-up plans; We have motels or places to stay to cover North Texas to Ohio. Wil cancel what's not needed according to their canx policies. If at about 5 days out South Texas or the Northeast US still looks like the only game in town, activate panic button. It could be done, but what a far cry from the Easy Button in 2017 which was clear 45 minutes up the road. About 5 minutes after 2017 we decided we're traveling for 2024. Too early to pin down target areas. Broad pattern still looks trough West ridge East, which is sub-optimal for much of the path. In about a week, we'll know if how we can work around it. We don't want something like April 1-2 positive tilt with the fronts draped along and parallel to the path. Neutral or negative tilt could be managed if the main rain band it perpendicular to the eclipse path. Just find a better spot on the path. Still ten days out; so, there is as good a chance the forecast improves as otherwise. Traffic will be worst departing. Big picnic and drinks. I'm not worried going to, but we will be there early. I prefer ol' fashioned eclipse shadow boxes to the glasses. Image in the glasses is so flat, I feel glasses don't add much value over the box. Maybe glasses for Bailey's Beads. No photography for us again, except killing time in the partial phases. I want to remember going with family and friends, but I'm not going to waste Totality fumbling with equipment. From about 5 minutes before Totality it's all about experiencing it and soaking up every last detail into long-term memory. Cicadas at midday. Birds freaking. Shadow bands on white surface. Then that shadow in the sky. People describe it as eerie, but I prefer majestic. Dark curtain rushing toward is the sign that it is almost time. It's so exciting but at the same time we went silent in awe. The only man-made sound I want to hear during Totality is my eclipse timer. Nice to know how long you got so you don't go blind, haha!

From my location MO/IL/IN are my preferred eclipse targets. All are about tied for shortest distance for me. I have backup and tertiary rooms booked to cover Texas to Ohio. I agree that we can discuss the broad wx pattern, even if it'll be several days before pinning down locations. We do not want a system like April 1-2. That sucker gets positively tilted with fronts parallel to the Totality path. We just can't have that April 8. Current models have the April 7-8 system neutral, but the risk is that changes. Sometimes these things trend to positive tilt. A negative tilt would be easiest to manage, with the main moisture feed perpendicular to the Totality path. WF could be a painful exception, but still probably not the whole path. Trough orientation is all I care about right now. Neutral and negative could be managed by picking a better spot on the Path. Positive tilt could cause much longer drives, heartburn, and gnashing of teeth. I really don't even care about timing as much as tilt. Timing can be managed by changing location. A positive tilt could be heartbreaking. If one thinks it's too early, scroll on. We don't need another noise post (comment with no discussion) in an important thread. If anything, it's been time for a couple weeks now. Finally, perhaps we get lucky and at least short-wave ridging covers large parts of the path. Ten days out the forecast has as good a chance of improving as otherwise. If TX-OH is socked in, at about the 5-day mark I'll hit the panic button and think about the Northeast US.

Yes I remember the clouds 'flipping' from white to dark with the few Cu still around in East Tenn 2017. Thankfully it was totally clear overhead. We also remembered to observe the 360-degree sunset. I did not notice the shadow on the ground, but we were in a flat area. Were you elevated in Aruba? Our main animal obs was the cicadas going off like it's evening. I've read about things like those birds etc. In a previous post I wrote about the smaller orange/pink prominences (much smaller than the silver corona) and I'm glad I remembered to look at the smaller prominences. Otherwise the 2017 delicate corona at the solar Min was absolutely gorgeous. I'm hoping 2024 near solar max the power doesn't take away from the finesse. Anyway we won't get cute with extended Bailey's Beads or Diamond Ring - just in and out of totality. I'll take 4 minutes of totality please!

I'd probably try @PWMan in almost any forecast scenario. In 2017 some KCMO friends thought they were hosed with mid-level clouds but they got a lucky break for several minutes at just the right time. If there is any chance of a breaks in clouds I would take a chance on it. I suppose have some other activity to justify the drive. Again, one should still experience some effects under overcast and observe animals react. Even mostly cloudy could yield bits and pieces of the main show. The KCMO story was a morning MCS. Of course that day clouds lingered well after the storms departed, rather than quickly clearing. Friends gave it a shot despite lots of afternoon clouds. They got the break they needed. Sometimes things actually go right! At this point it's too early to worry about the forecast though. Maybe consider some back-up locations. One can still get a motel off the path of totality in the Midwest no problem. Then drive on in that day, early of course.

New England is my tertiary or 4th backup, blowing my frequent flier miles. Per my location I'd like to see it in the Midwest or Mid-South. Texas and Ohio are my secondary backups before the tertiary gnashing of teeth. For traffic, I like the sports or large concert comparison. No huge problem getting into position if one gets out early. In 2017 we went very early and waited out the partial phases. The build-up and anticipation is fun, like waiting on a storm to gin up. Traffic getting out will be tremendous. One could bolt right after totality ends. In 2017 we found that hard to do. Enormity of the experience required some time to reflect and process it. One could hang out some more, picnic or hike. Probably don't expect a table at a restaurant until you get to a city outside totality. We ate in Chattanooga. We still have eclipse glasses, but it says they expired. Either way I will use an eclipse shadow box more. Image is so flat in the glasses, really no different than a shadow box. Ended up using mostly the shadow box in 2017 for partial phases. Minute before totality maybe the glasses add value, so you know exactly when it's safe to look. Eclipse partner thought I was crazy to use binoculars during totality. Absolutely be extra sure it's not coming out of totality - only do it with 1-2 minutes to spare. Anyway I saw the orange/pink prominences with binoculars. Wider corona is far better naked eye. Really for the whole thing, naked eye is superior. Just took a quick peek at the prominences. In 2017 we were in a solar cycle min. Corona was delicate and seemed to stretch across the sky. Two long streamers were on one side and one long streamer was on the other. The moon was blacker than I'd imagined, but intellectually it makes total sense. Actually everything was even better than the hype. In 2024 we are near a solar peak. I've read the corona will be bolder but maybe more concentrated. Sky may be darker since it's a longer totality. Could be a great vivid contrast. Guess we'll find out if a stronger / bolder corona is pretty. I know I loved the delicate version in 2017. This 2024 will be my second total solar eclipse. Either way it'll be so incredible! Don't forget to soak in everything. Last minute or two is wild when the sky gets darker incoming. Also shadow bands could start 5 minutes early if I recall, maybe just a couple min. White surface looks like the bottom of a swimming pool. I think the cicadas were going several minutes before totality. Deep partial phases are pretty cool too. I think of deep partial and total like structure and tornado to the storm chaser. Of course both are great, but there's only one mission on April 8. Chase the clear skies and it must be Totality.

Vols are still in it! Sweet 16. One of my brackets is doing well, but it requires Tennessee to the Final Four. The others are bust. In other news, the Central/West and Ohio Valley both lack total eclipse threads for April 8. What a pity! New England has a thread, but I sure hope it's clear much closer. We had a thread going two years before August 2017. Who started it? Thank you! Search is acting up now. Tennessee Valley remains the best Region!

Thursday sky definitely had a fall feel. I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah it was the smoke. Friday we are back in business with a proper deep blue sky.

True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley. But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season.

Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball.

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often.

Good to read reports of lightning and thunder. We can settle the mid-term debate in the pinned thread. Snow before the season ends!

Indeed @Itryatgolf70 this unusual combo of -PDO and El Nino has been fickle. It's how we get a great storm track, but putting cold air in place is like pulling teeth - without Novocain.

Cold core setups do weird things, but often photogenic things. Saturday on the hardwood Eve. Tennessee goes on the road in what's pretty much a must win game. Gotta get Ws on the road. Kentucky will win hosting Gonzaga. Kansas will win hosting Baylor. Alabama and Auburn are both on the road. I have no idea. Couple other Big 12 games that might be interesting are TCU at Iowa St. and Oklahoma bedlam.

The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active.

The next snow is always 3 weeks away, kind of like the next Kansas road win.