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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Well at least the op has ensemble support. I'd be a little more excited if the GFS has been performing better. But it's been pretty bad, so. I'd give it another 24 hours of all model runs and watch the trends closely.
  2. Terpeast
    Let's temper our expectations. The GFS is on its own with the snowy solution. CMC did shift further south, so maybe it's onto something like resolving the s/w spacing, confluence, etc. Need to see the Euro blink, though
  3. Terpeast
    Checked guidance this morning... Nothing has changed. The waiting is the worst part. Cliche but true
  4. Terpeast
    It’s part of the weenie handbook. Sacrifice storm X to get storm Y. Not worth entertaining another thought, though…
  5. Terpeast
    Are we cliff jumping because of… one op gfs run?
  6. Terpeast
    I count 3 potential waves, which could turn out to be 2 in reality. Likely the first (19-20th) and third (23rd that PSU has been harping on)
  7. Terpeast
    -epo and 50/50. Temps the least of my worries
  8. Terpeast
    Gfs turns this back into a cutter, like it was showing a week ago.
  9. Terpeast
    Always a chance we get a lucky shift south like we did with the second Jan storm, but I don’t think this is it. We don’t have a PV or any arctic front pressing things south as the wave approaches to begin with. I’m more interested in the feb 18-20 window
  10. Terpeast
    24.8 for the low. Classic cold winter morning
  11. Terpeast
    Just need to delay this wave by a day to give cold air enough time to get here. Outside of the 0z run yesterday, Gfs is still faster than euro/cmc. But running out of time for big wholesale changes. Minor shifts here and there won’t get it done for us
  12. Terpeast
    I’d go with 8-12” i-95 and 12-18” west towards blue ridge and i-81. But this is specifically for DCA, so I voted 5-8” as a siting penalty
  13. Terpeast
    Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm
  14. Terpeast
    Block looks stronger to me on the gefs Closer look at trends says not really, but not weaker either. Just sharper and clearer
  15. Terpeast
    Biggest takeaway has nothing to do with thermals... only that the models may just now be starting to pick up big threats at range.
  16. Terpeast
    Yep, we have a much better shot at 2/17-18 than the one before it. Agreed we need a phase for that one. But it's close.
  17. Terpeast
    When I have low confidence in the ops, I lean on the ensembles and 850s drop fast between 140 and 170 hours, with us going under 0C between 156 and 162, but both EPS and GEFS have precip ending or winding down by 162 hours. Again, it's a long shot and we probably get rain either way.
  18. Terpeast
    For now it's a perfect track rainstorm, but the height and thermal fields up north have poor continuity run to run with the GFS so I think the GFS is struggling with it and the western US fields. Those pieces keep shifting 500 miles one way or another. Zero confidence forecast 7 days out, as is often the case with pattern changes.
  19. Terpeast
    Less confluence
  20. Terpeast
    6z was an open wave, but both 00z and 12z are closed h5 lows in TVA... 12z is just a little ahead
  21. Terpeast
    141, hanging further back... I take back my 06 vs 00z statement
  22. Terpeast
    H132 looks more similar to 06z than 00z
  23. Terpeast
    Hanging back a bit more at 120. Still not sure...
  24. Terpeast
    It appears we have 2-3 waves of interest: The 13th, 19-21, and 22-23. The latter two may actually only be one storm, just disagreement among ensembles on timing. There will be a break of dry weather between the first two waves.
  25. Terpeast
    Ah yea, gotcha thanks. Just compared the latest ens of all 3, now I see the gefs being the weakest with the block
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