Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Just woke up. Let me see if my summary is correct? - Euro didn’t budge - GFS ticked south - NAM NAMed DC north, flirt with mix line - SREF a whole new level of NAMing - Ukie even more south - LWX disregarded euro and ukie
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It actually moved a tick south, but not so much to really change the big picture. Small details like mixing, dry slot, banding, etc are still TBD
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They don’t quite phase, only pushes the storm down a bit. But if they phased, lowland areas east of blue ridge through delmarva could get pummeled even more. Something to watch.
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Starting to see interaction between the tpv lobe and the closed low, could get interesting
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Confirmed, h5 vort same thing
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No they’re not. Relax.
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With that 70kt+ 850 jet, that is a likely possibility but good thing we just get a little bit before dry slotting and then get the coastal going. At least according to the NAM, but other models are picking up on this scenario
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Yep, looks like it for the middle of this sub. Maybe foot plus lollies
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Nice run, more than acceptable
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Heavy snow NoVA 75-78
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Filling back in at 72 as the coastal gets going with the h5 pass
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Looks like we dry slot before flipping to sleet (I’m okay with that)
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No real changes on the surface yet.
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Confluence a bit stronger, but more east.
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Yeah, it feels like the narrower the ranges are, the more certain they are. But 2-7” is really wide.
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Maybe nothing, but s/w low is less deep than 18z (h5 vorticity)
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I see faster flow at h5 on the western flank of the big low to our NE. Might play a role later.
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1/3: 0.3” fun snow squall with legit blizzard conditions for 5-10 min
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If it were the GFS south and Euro north, there would be little debate or uncertainty on how this is going to evolve. But it’s really hard to bet against the Euro
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That’s what I’m thinking too. Hopefully the southern band will get us and run up the accums before any mixing or dry slot, then add a few more on the backend.
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I thought the euro shifted north. Yes, it’s still south but closer to coming to an agreement. Probably by tomorrow morning or afternoon, we’ll see this thing locked in.
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Haha true
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Did I confuse you? Sorry. I'm speaking from mby, the other models gave me more snow than the GFS. Plus GFS dry slots me. So I'm not as excited about this run.
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GFS not as exciting as the other model runs, but gives us an idea of what the floor might look like as far as accums go in a warmer/norther scenario.
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I kind of like seeing the spread between models because it still shows a range of possibilities between the northernmost/warmest scenario and the southernmost/coldest scenario. The goal posts are starting to narrow, and we're in a good place. Soon, we will start parsing the mesoscale details like best banding, how far N the mix line goes, and when the coastal takes over.
