Terpeast

Terrible look in August. Now? Not great, but not game over yet. Hoping the trend holds. source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/olra_last30days-3plots.gif

As long as he’s not in a flood zone, all good.

Looks like a copy paste nina winter outlook

For IAD, the range is between 2.6" and 15.8", average is 9". Source https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

I agree with you that it's standard nina climo that we usually get stuck between suppressed cold/dry and warm/wet cutter tracks. With a moderate but weakening nina, -PDO, and the NAO being projected to avg weakly positive, I still lean towards a below normal snowfall this winter. But there are a couple of X factors that didn't exist on previous analogs - one being that the ATL hurricane season has been uncharacteristically quiet, and two being the H2O vapor eruption with undetermined effects on the stratosphere (i.e. there is a long chain of "ifs" that must come true to get -AO from a NH strat warming as a result). Again, leaning BN snowfall, but leaving the door open to a couple of surprises.

Careful what you wish for..

2 are -nao 1 (dwdd) is extreme +nao/+ao And 5 showing a neutral to weak +nao. (that’s where I see consensus)

Or even 50. I wouldn’t use analogs earlier than 1980, even though the 70s are interesting ones to look at.

Crispy morning low of 56, went out for a run. Felt great.

Like you said, we’ll get our answer by Nov. pdo is still negative atm

Well… looks like Wentz and the commanders pulled one out today.

Central pac ssts cooling just south of the aleutians, slight warming trend off the west coast. Still a ways off from a +pdo (sig warming further west), but if trend holds, the pac may not be so hostile this winter. from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I think the grass grew another inch overnight. My lawn mower delivery is delayed (again) and the lawn service will surely slap another surcharge for grass being over 6”. Anyway, the obligatory deck pic. Hopefully it’ll look much more white in the winter.

Radar is clear here, but it’s actually a heavy misty drizzle / RA-. Maybe radar isn’t very accurate in this spot for light precip.

@snowfan @nj2va Thanks both! We’ll look into Canaan around the first/second weekend of Oct!

When is the best time to see the fall colors along Skyline drive / Shenendoah national park? I want to take my wife there. She’s from Vietnam and has never seen the fall colors, so I want to take her there one weekend. It’s roughly a 1.5-2 hour drive from where we live. How are the colors looking there so far, if anyone lives closeby?

2” here in Ashburn. Nice overnight soaker. Pleasantly surprised.

Brief shower in Ashburn. Grass starting to look pretty dry.

Ah, right. Sarcasm doesn't come through a computer screen very well, at least for me.

Same in Ashburn. 93-94 or so. Don't know the dews, but heat index is at least 100 for sure.

Things are upbeat here? While it's too early to make any calls, I can't seem to get excited about this winter anyhow. ENSO and all the teleconnections are working against us, broadly giving us the exact opposite of what we want.

Whiffed yet again. Gusty winds and cooler temps though.

Got soaked while hauling tools from Home Depot to the car, and I wasn’t even parked that far from the entrance. These things get you when you least expect it.

Finally getting dumped on now. Before cells were firing up north east west south of me doing their best to avoid my spot. But now, all good.

Not one drop imby so far. Seems to be a recurring theme this summer.