Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Today’s high was 59.4 imby. Probably one of the coldest maxes in September that I can remember.
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Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby? No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24) -
Ok so if we put +enso -qbo +iod together, signs clearly point to a wetter than normal winter for the SE to MA
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What about precip? I think we’re looking for the wrong linkages with qbo. Not so much temperature, but where blocking tends to occur and where the driest and wettest anomalies tend to be. This map looks like a drier NW and wetter SE and that’s what I first thought before I saw it was about temps
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Gosh Tip, that was poetic
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Yep. That’s what I’ve been trying to say the past few times I posted here.
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True, but the Euro isn’t exactly the winning model these days. It totally whiffed on Ophelia and caved dramatically to GFS/CMC inside 3 days. Not saying all other models are much better in the longer range though. All I’m saying is that we’ve had alternating +/- PNA periods over the last 3 months and I see that continuing through the entire autumn season until at least late December.
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Yeah, but only for a week or so. Gfs and canadian ensembles bring an aluetian trough back after the first week of Oct. As I’ve been saying for weeks, there will be some back and forth.
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Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’m not worried yet. The monthlies were not showing an el nino pattern until dec/jan. On a weekly basis there will be some switching back and forth now until then. If it makes you feel better, gfs and canadian ensembles start showing an aluetian low at the end of their runs (starting around oct 10th) -
I'm at 7.7" for the monthly total. I'm at the midpoint (slightly west thereof) between the 9.19 and 5.86, so it makes sense.
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No radar signal but still drizzly. 3.20"
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3.08” so far and looks to be winding down here. 7.5” on the month. Huge turnaround on the drought!
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Passed 2” with the last band
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1.4” so far, on track to reach or exceed 2” as forecasted by the models. Wind was underwhelming though. Max gust 30
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0.93” from the first round, drizzly during the lull.
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Yes, ridiculous. But ensembles show several fronts starting to come through Japan with slight troughing through the end of the range. Note the dark blue blob of cold ssts in the Okhotsk sea. As the season gets colder, those colder temps will migrate down and help dissipate some of that heat. It’ll take time though, but I think it can be done before our winter.
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0.47” so far.
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Just started raining
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Think it means the westward tracks modeled may turn out to be correct, maybe it means rain west of i-95 going higher end of forecast
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Getting the same warm Dec vibe. Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO
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Just might become a low end cat 1 right before landfall
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Better get a bad pattern out of the way now. Most models had this in their forecasts and don’t pop an aleutian low until Jan.
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And it's not just Dec 2022... it's also the entire winter of 2022-23 with the trough digging all the way into Baja and burying SoCal with several feet of snow. I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say that extreme type of pattern won't happen again for at least a decade or more.
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NHC track further west. Up the bay
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Anyone notice that canadian and NHC have tracks further east than gfs, euro, icon and nam?
