Terpeast

I think we also get a PDO rise in a different mechanism - the strong extended pac jet forms over a baroclinic boundary off Japan with cyclones and fronts responding to this, and as they traverse over the western N Pac, ssts will start to cool and the PDO will rise. Meanwhile we may see a +EPO dominant autumn with that jet, but even that’ll also help drive a little bit of a PDO rise over the US west coast (warmer ssts). The extreme negative PDO will be self limiting eventually. Been seeing a hint of this in the day 5-15 ensembles

Any chance you got the AS MEI update?

Note this jet originates from the warm pool off Japan. When the season turns colder from northern Japan on down, that baroclinic boundary will become powerful and fuel that pac jet on steroids. Exactly what I’ve been expecting to happen. It’ll take some time to work through that until they’re not so extremely warm anymore and the jet normalizes. Probably a few months.

It looks like a transition from east based to basin wide

That one’s also on my running list of analogs

Not the best sign, but do we know how much the water vapor contributed to the near-record +aao? Could it still have been solidly positive regardless had tonga not happened? Not sure there’s anyway to find out after the fact, but it may compete with -qbo while determining the average state of the AO this winter

Think I’ve said it before when debating with psuhoffman, December has never been a big wintry month even when I was a kid growing up here in the MA during a much colder base climate. December 2009, and to a lesser extent, 2002, were special.

At least it got the west of 180 forcing right. Maybe that’s something to take into account for winter

For now yes. But these VP anoms seem to change every week. This may look totally different this time next week.

With all the model volatility, maybe the “lets wait till its within 10 days” should be revised down to 6-7 days… even with the ensembles

BWI: Nov 3 IAD: Nov 1 DCA: Nov 29 RIC: Nov 21 BWI departure +1.0

The nice visual aside, I imagine the warmer gulf and carribbean (over 30c right now) might get the SS to amplify more and shift the storm track a bit north, so what used to be a deep southern slider and a MA miss may become a MA hit. Also what used to be a MA hit SNE miss may hit SNE instead. Could be wrong, so we’ll see.

How far do you go back usually? 1950?

Yeah, I don’t get it either. I don’t understand the “super” talk when we’re at high-end moderate and holding (or weak, if you prefer using MEI)

Thanks bluewave!

What's the link again for the daily enso data? I keep forgetting

Worth considering whether the super warm north atlantic might be driving a predominant -nao. It does make sense when I think about how much heat is transported north between greenland and scandinavia

Low of 52 imby. Think some low level stratus prevented me from radiating as well as I should

Let’s see if this holds inside 5-10 days, and if it does, that’s good news we’d be able to hold a +pna despite record -pdo

If the MEI remains in the weak range, probably neither. The polar tele’s might have a bigger say.

I see the back and forth, too.

My glimmer of hope is that slight ridging off Japan, so working through those warm sst anomalies over the next few months, including December, won't necessarily ruin our chances for sustained +PNA and blocking the second half of winter. We still have time.

Yeah, I expect that area to cool even further as fall rolls into Japan and further south. Not a big reason to worry yet, true, but I keep thinking about how to get an aleutian low in the right place within 4 months using this sst map as a starting point. My hypothesis is that the autumn will be dominated by enhanced cyclones running along the baroclinic boundary as it slowly surely shifts south... that's going to pop a ridge on the central NPAC with -PNA at least temporarily. Then we just need it to normalize and shift into a canonical aleutian trough and +PNA. Can we pull this off inside of 4 months with this as a starting point?

Yea I was talking about that. Sure, we could get a dead cat bounce off this, and we likely will, but if we're peaking this early, that's something to take into account when picking analogs (or adjusting them).

After everything had been going as planned for several months (apart from the japan marine heat wave), that 0.2 drop in 3.4 is a red flag. Too early to say what it means going forward, but it’s not a promising sign