Okay here goes, back in the game. Dusting off my research skills and we'll see how it goes.
Outlook is based on 2 things:
- Backward looking indicators using historical analogs for La Nina, +QBO, -PDO, -IOD, and high solar activity
- Forward looking indicators such as atlantic SSTs and wildcards like high stratosphere vapor content (Hunga Tonga)
My best analogs are:
- 2000-01 (no surprise)
- 2011-12
- 1985-86
I've also looked at 2017-18 and 2008-09, but didn't put a whole lot of weight on them.
I was going to look at hurricane activity and years of low ACE, but I threw that out the window since things have been picking up in the atlantic.
My DFJ maps using my analogs:
Commentary:
I expect La Nina to maintain moderate through January and then weaken into March, when everything also trends neutral. This outlook also banks on a milder than normal November, then as the -IOD trends toward neutral, the winter will become milder (especially February) as we go on after a cold start.
Just based on these analogs alone, this is not supposed to be a productive winter.
BUT... based on recent trends in the stratosphere and model forecasts, there's a chance that we may get a little bit of help from a negative -NAO if and whenever the pacific cooperates.
The opposing factor is high solar activity and +QBO, but we can have a decent winter despite those (e.g. 13-14 & 14-15).
I don't see the entire eastern half of the CONUS being colder than normal, but stronger signal seems to be in the upper midwest and pacific northwest.
Also see a strong signal of above normal temps around the 4 corners in the west (as I expected).
I also think we go dry or near normal precip almost across the board, except maybe OH valley / midwest.
And the part you're most interested in...
Mid-atlantic Snowfall
First, let's talk storm tracks.
I see primarily cutters and clippers, some suppressed tracks, and I expect more than a few miller Bs to blow up off the EC and drop the hammer on NYC & north. One of those may very well be historic. (NYC-Boston corridor - watch out, make sure your roofs are in good shape!)
As for this sub, I think slightly below average snowfall is the best we're gonna do. Unfortunately, there's a fair chance that we'll get a dud like 2011-12.
I'm leaning towards a combo of 99-00/00-01 and maybe even a 85-86, which would be decent for us.
Snow Predictions:
- DCA: 7-12"
- IAD: 9-15"
- BWI: 10-16" Temp Predictions:
- Nov: +2
- Dec: -2
- Jan: -1
- Feb: +3
- Mar: 0