Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Better now than Jan/Feb
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I’d take it
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Phase 7 by 15th (give or take). Still no can-kick
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Yeah, the recent convection must have cooled those waters. I think the maritime content had 30c but those were shallow. In nino 4 east of the dateline though, the warm waters run much deeper and have more energy to feed convection in mjo 7-8-1. I predicted in my outlook that all mjo phases would be wide open especially as the IOD faded. Well, the IOD faded a bit a month early, so its good that mjo is going through 4-6 outside of prime climo. It was to be expected though, rather than be seen as bad news. We just have to wait the mjo out and the pieces will be set where we want them to be.
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Yeah, I was so sick of getting hopes up with the gfs last year. I’m glad they fixed the damned thing
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Was the GFS updated after last winter? It hasn’t shown much digital snow like it did last year (very wrongly so ofc)
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West of rt 15 may see something, but east of that, I’m not as confident. (I’m 5 miles east of 15 as the crow flies)
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Cloudy, 36. No precip, but sure has a winter vibe. Nice surprise for the NE part of this sub! Anyone with more than a trace? Maybe we can call it the first “cumulative” inch and get on with it! (Or is that my inner weenie talking?)
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One point to add, we’re progged to get into phase 7 around Dec 12-15. That hasn’t changed, so I’m not seeing a can-kick there. Also to reiterate, some of our biggest EC snows started as a wave in the N Pac while the MJO was in phase 7.
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The plot thickens. It may take a while to work its way down though.
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Grats to those who saw flakes today. Sunny here lol
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Deck and car was wet, pavement kinda dry. I assume it was rain because I never went below 36 for the night
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Thanks, psu. I was kinda surprised at the reaction. Maybe they forgot about that analysis I did a few months ago. And yes we’d need modeling resources if we really wanted to dynamically simulate what a past storm would like today, but we don’t have those resources. Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled tracking…
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Dry here. 37
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Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes
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@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66. The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. Do we take this chance? I would.
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Any trend in timing?
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47, cloudy.
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Yep. Not now. But around then. We can see the STJ start loading its ammo and taking aim at the SE US on recent runs, especially 12z gfs.
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Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks even better -
Judging from the gradients near the dateline, forcing should strengthen around the dateline and then drift a bit east after Dec 17 or so
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Consider the source. Smart guy, but heavily biased towards persistence in favor of CC. He will be proven wrong for a time eventually. He has a tendency to cherry pick the warmest analogs for any given pattern. First it was 2015-16, then it was 1997-98, and on it goes.
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8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg
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I like what these VP forecasts are showing. Nice trend. I don’t agree that 8-1-2 necessarily means warm in the east if the MEI stays under 1.2 (iow the nino doesn’t go super)
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Still doesn’t look like a palm-trees-can-grow-in-NYC torch to me
