Terpeast
-
Posts
5,366 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude
-
This thread got quiet real fast. Unhappy hour GFS
-
Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come
-
Nice signal. Trajectory on that should be NE instead of E. Maybe ENE, which is just enough to get DC in the game. Still lots of time.
-
I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried.
-
This is exactly how I remember the 80s winters, and this winter was just like them. No major extended torches, 1-2 major cold outbreaks, and a couple of sig snowstorms of 5-8" with a bunch of little stat padders in between. Some rainers in between. Feels... normal.
-
AI models, being underdispersive, tend to latch onto a solution early on. It’s great when they get the storm track correct. It’s an overconfident whiff in other cases where they get it wrong, though. Other than not being based on (and constrained by) the laws of physics, it’s one main weakness of AIWP models.
-
Give me one more storm on the 20th, preferrably a MECS+, then bring on Spring. Would have no complaints about that.
-
Hope yall got your jebwalks and took your kids (if you have any) out earlier today. Now it’s gross
-
Nope, still 12z as they don't assimilate any new data beyond their originally scheduled run
-
Just got word that 12z euro is now running and should be done in 1 hour... THEN they will release the data, so it may be a while before we see the images
-
Site back up: ECMWF | Advancing global NWP through international collaboration
-
Maybe I got it mixed up with another storm. But I do remember a major double digit storm where Bob Ryan went low and stayed low, it was almost like he totally disengaged from it all.
-
On a separate domain
-
Yep, this seems to be a S&E winter with the exception of the Jan 19 storm. I have almost 17" on the season by comparison, with just a few inches to go before hitting climo
-
It was 96. I stopped listening to Bob Ryan after that.
-
Euro having issues again, and its worse this run. Status page is also down
-
That's certainly FOLKS worthy. Feb 2015 is looking like a decent analog at least for THIS run.
-
Don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but I saw 2/5/2010 for 6-10 day and 2/14/2015 for 11-15. That's just from 00z today
-
Snizzle, 30/28. Not expecting it to add anything to my totals.
-
It's gonna change the next run (and the 50 runs after that)
-
I'm interested. Some good analogs popping up here.
-
Didn’t catch the Bob part. There were so many folks posting haha I stuck with my 3-6” call here though, and also pointed out that the HRRR trended wetter at game time
-
Bob’s still at it?
-
Fair. Was mainly speaking for DC metro (and also is true for south and east)
