Doorman

WTF https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***Quick hitting system to bring snow Thursday night into early Friday*** The main story for this part of the forecast will be coastal storm system forecast to bring snow overnight Thursday night into early Friday. There are still some differences in the forecast models with the NAM being a weaker, farther south/east outlier while the GFS continues to be a bit fast. Leaned towards a blend weighted heavier towards the 12z GEM Reg / 12z HRRR/ 6z NAM. These models are a bit stronger with the low and farther N/W compared to other guidance that`s trended a bit farther south/east over the past day or two. However given the set up of a fairly robust upper level wave and the history of these types of systems tend to favor this slightly stronger solution. Bottom line, we have become confident enough in a fairly widespread 2-4+ inches of snowfall accumulation to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most zones, excluding the coastal strip south of Monmouth Co, NJ and the southern Poconos where confidence and amounts are a bit lower. Also, sleet and even some rain could mix in near the coast. In terms of the details, deepening low pressure moves northeast off the Virginia / NC coast Thursday night in response to a strong upper level wave moving eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow overspreads the region west to east late Thursday evening into the overnight (mostly after 10 PM) with the heaviest precip likely falling in the 1am - 7am period. While our official snowfall forecasts remain capped to the 2 to 4 inch range for much of the CWA, there are a couple important things to note: 1) This will be a fast moving system with snow falling over just several hours that will unfortunately coincide with the Friday AM commute. 2) We still think there is the potential for an embedded heavier band of snow with totals in the 4-6+ inch range. Uncertainty still on exactly where this would occur but somewhere near or just south of the I-95 corridor appears most heavily favored. For this reason, this could still be an impactful event despite the current snowfall forecast not being that high. This will be monitored closely and if confidence for this increases, Winter Storm Warnings will be considered. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

WPC winter disco This forecast cycle showed an eastern trend, keeping the low track far enough offshore such that the QPF/snow forecast trended downward, especially inland/interior areas. With the signal for the system to be 1) more offshore and 2) very fast moving - probabilities of heavy snow have decreased this cycle, however there continues to be some ensemble support for a stronger/closer system so over the next several days the details will ironed out https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

hot off the press....BM cluster https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

6+ Newark NJ

https://digital.weather.gov/

money guidance here....for a nice track to work with https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f072_us.html bonus images add to the upside 4ta6 call atm o enjoy your snow metro

OPC near benchmark prog not a bad look overall.... for the crew here imho https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

We posted the weaker euro prog sir nice work for a mod......

The forecasted-----wpc map was issued out of their office at 10:08pm EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME---- last night---- almost 5 hours before the euro is available he must be a joker or a genius...... we done here

I think 6 plus for the metro will be a stretch.... this is the noaa metro prog for 7:00 pm Wed night 1 inch prog the euro has it weaken to about 1004mb trucking east 12 hours later do the math.... https://digital.weather.gov/ where is my mustard....

Hello Coasty.....see the 1004mb bubble on the euro and the match to the wpc prog.... they get an early looks at things ....the wpc time stamp is just after midnight 0530Z digital snow maps I think some forum has a thread for that

trend this. small window for big snow in the metro...trust me

weak sauce at 1004mb 7:00 am edt Thursday reset your hopes for this system p.s. the euro will back it up

OPC 96hr surface prog https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/mslp_f144_us.html just a tad late for the thursday mess ...imo no stream interaction atm

In the eye sir........Of course !!!!!

screen grab from web cam https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/the-beach-club-resort-spa-live-cam/

Canadians........ get no love at all..... 980.mb ..swirl of greatness run the loop ..... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northernhemi-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined yeah... that swirl is making the SPC work overtime on their severe products in the North East today but no one will notice or give a rat's azz get a life weather nerds p.s. hope you get smoked FORKY

NLT.....thanks for the confirmation. isn't the Outflow Channel on Direct TV?????

You have been in rare form my friend.....laffin me ass off.... keep it up....king of sarcasm .. u rolling dm Somebody get me the CRASS model ASAP we need to nail this down

Speak to me of that Typhoon Rule that teleconnects to Laura ......so a Cat 5 is on the table?????

Cat 5 ANNULAR-----book it I will show myself out

OPC 96hr prog.... https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php